Transcript of Holy Sh*t Tesla
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0:00Tesla just beat delivery expectations.0:03We've got to talk about what this means0:05for Tesla's stock because today Tesla is0:08having one heck of a ride. And I have to0:12say just a few days ago, we sent out an0:16email totally free. This isn't even a0:19pitch for for anything you have to pay0:20for. We sent out an email, our first0:23Meet Kevin Digest email. And in it, it0:26included a bullish call on Tesla and a0:30price target for Tesla. You can get this0:33for free if you want. Just type into0:36your browser meet Kevin.com/digest0:39or click the link down below, meet0:42Kevin.com/digest,0:43and you hit enter on it, you get this0:45price targets, macro, and wealth every0:48single day for free in an email. I also0:52post these in the daily wealth tab of0:54the Meet Kevin app, but some of you have0:56told me you just prefer getting your0:58recap in an email. And so now we give1:01you a little bit of a recap on videos,1:03on the streams we made, on price target1:05calls we made. And then we link to1:07different videos just to make it easier1:09for you. Like if you want to watch more1:10of the videos, you can to get the sort1:12of deep dive analysis on it. But if you1:14want just a quick like, hey, you know, I1:16haven't I didn't get a chance to watch1:17Kevin today. You know, can I get a quick1:19little recap or whatever, this is an1:20email that we put together for you. Uh,1:23and again, it'll be in the meet Kevin1:24app under the daily wealth tab or uh in1:27email, you could get this via the daily1:28digest. So, just drop your email there.1:30Meet Kevin.com/digest. But that was a1:32bullish call on Tesla and here we are. T1:36uh Tesla just beat delivery expectations1:39fantastically. The stock is up 5%. And1:41there's about a 70% correlation when1:44Tesla goes up, SpaceX also goes up. So1:47SpaceX is essentially solely going up1:49right now because Tesla's up. I mean,1:51the charts are almost perfect here. I1:53personally think people have like an1:55Elon basket and then it's like they're1:57bullish Elon, they buy Elon, they're1:59bearish Elon, they sell Elon, [laughter]2:02which hey, whatever, man. But that's2:04good to know in case you're wondering,2:05you know what's going on with Space. I2:07say it's because Tesla's up. Okay. But2:09so what happened with Tesla and and what2:11do we need to consider uh for the price2:15of the stock? Like why why does this2:17matter for Tesla just another delivery2:21set? Well, matter is a big deal because2:24the auto business is the core of Tesla's2:26business. And what's really crazy is2:29when you compare to last year, quarter2:33three was critical. Why? Because you2:37might not remember this, but I remember2:39this very, very, very important. Last2:43year, Q3 was the last chance for you to2:48take advantage of the EV tax credits.2:51So, September 30th of last year was a2:55massive milestone for Tesla and we2:58pulled forward a lot of demand for Tesla3:01vehicles.3:03Well, that showed us deliveries of3:07497099.3:10That was what we had last year, Q3.3:14Okay, we just got deliveries that came3:18in at 486532.3:24Now, yes, that number is lower. Oops, I3:28I totally forgot a digit here. There you3:31go. 4863:33[laughter] 486 532 divided by 4970993:39that means we are now3:42233:462.13%.3:50Within the prior year's numbers without3:53the tax credits that's fracking insane.3:58You are talking about effectively, okay,4:02effectively a $7,5004:07price increase for Teslas and we are4:10literally within 2.13%.4:14You know what that sounds like to me,4:16right?4:16>> Big PP.4:18>> Yeah, that is honestly very very solid4:22for Tesla. That is what I call big pee4:26pe, baby.4:29BPP. [laughter]4:31Okay. Now, what why does that matter so4:35much? Why do we care? I thought Tesla4:37was about Optimus or Cyber Cab or4:39whatever. Look, the Cyber Cab's got a4:41lot of work to do because we've got to4:42compress the time frame to get the Cyber4:44Cab operating in different cities across4:47the country and then eventually4:48different countries. That's going to4:50take time. But do you realize what the4:51Cyber Cabs actually are? It doesn't4:54matter right now about the fleet sales.4:57That'll matter in the future. You know4:59what the cyber caps do between now and5:02then?5:04Think about it. It's free advertising.5:08Every single person that's like,5:11"Look at that cyber cab. That looks5:13crazy. Oh, I heard those are driving5:16without a driver." What? Yeah, they have5:18some versions without a steering wheel.5:20OH MY GOSH.5:23CAN I BUY A TESLA? WELL, you can't buy a5:26Cyber Cab yet, but you could buy a Model5:28Y or a Model 3 and get FSD and pay5:31monthly for it and pass some more ARR on5:34to Tesla. You could buy that right now5:37if you want. You know, some inventory5:39available if you want to just hop on5:41over to the dealership, the Tesla store,5:44go online, buy it right now, and you can5:47drive, you can have the car drive5:48yourself home right now.5:51It's the best damn branding ever, bro.5:53It's freaking brilliant. [laughter]5:55It doesn't It doesn't matter that the5:58cyber cap doesn't work everywhere right6:01now. It's advertising. So, they go6:04scatter these things everywhere.6:07And what? [snorts]6:10Like, this is freaking awesome.6:12So, uh I'm really excited uh about what6:16this means for the biggest vertical of6:19the business and it beat expectations by6:22about 5%. But we need to we need to look6:24at the actual spreadsheet here of the6:26biggest vertical of the business. Uh6:30Scott wants to know how much for my6:31black X. Why are you trying to figure6:33out how much my black X is worth? You6:37know, okay, to me that's sentimental.6:39There there is a lot of value6:42writing on my black ex.6:45Somebody else I submitted my email but I6:47didn't get Oh, for the digest. Uh, if6:50you have an issue with anything ever6:53meet Kevin related, just email us at6:55staff meetkevin.com. We will take care6:58of you. That's the job of Kevin boy. I7:01mean, look, Kevin's a happy boy. See?7:04Happy. Reinvest one. This is really7:08cool, by the way. I mean, I want to be7:10bullish about Tesla. Talk about Tesla in7:12just a moment, but this is really,7:13really cool because look at this. Oh,7:15this is sexy. Look at this. Alpha7:17membership, trade alerts, the reinvest7:20stocks platform, reinvest homes, all7:22nine courses, the course member live7:24streams, and the business blueprint7:26product. Bro, you get so much in one7:31product. And this is a complete rewrite7:33that's coming at the end of the by the7:35end of the year. Re the reinvest7:37terminal. This is a a fan freaking7:40tastic. We've even got Tesla as an7:42example over here. Look at this. This7:43will be an example of some of the stuff7:44you get. 96% of the time this appeared.7:47Tesla ran up 30% within 60 days. Bottom7:50line, buy the dip setup is in play,7:52right? Like these are the things that7:54are coming to this product. And it is so7:58freaking exciting what we were building8:00with this. and we're killing just like8:02they you know how they killed lifetime8:03access to FSD and now you have to pay8:06monthly to get full self-driving.8:09That same thing is what we're going to8:12do with this except everybody who has8:14lifetime access to reinvest one by the8:16end of the year keeps it for life and uh8:20anybody who signs up in 2027 or on will8:23be paying uh like an annual fee uh for8:26the product like a license essentially.8:29But that's, you know, Tesla actually8:31shifted to the ARR model for FSD and8:34it's actually quite smart because now8:37when they get new signups on top of8:39their $750 million a year roughly of FSD8:43rev, you're you're expecting that to8:45pretty much be pure revenue just flowing8:48and flowing and flowing. Uh, and that's8:50very exciting because ARR gets a higher8:53multiple on Wall Street. So, it's a8:56great thing.8:58So, what you have here, somebody says,9:00"Need a good way to roll a monthly." No,9:02we're not doing monthly. We'll always9:04end up doing like an annualbased uh9:06option. Uh if you need some kind of like9:08way to break up the payment, you could9:10use a firm or CLA or pay in four or if9:13you'd prefer to break it up, but then9:14you own it for life, but we're we're not9:16doing that. We're not the financers of9:18it. So, uh, SpaceX and Tesla9:21spreadsheet, people forget, they get9:24very excited about operating income for9:29the Optimus and operating income for the9:32semitr. And my sheet over here9:34indicates, you know, operating income9:36from the semi-truck from FSD, it could9:38grow $2.5 billion. Semi-truck could be9:424.2. Uh, the Tesla bot, I've got 1.59:46right here. It's a little, you know,9:47whatever. Maybe maybe the semian bot9:50will be flipped. It doesn't matter. The9:52point is people don't realize all of9:55those damn numbers9:57are a fraction of the operating income10:00that you get from selling freaking cars.10:03Now, in fairness,10:06the margins I have listed right here are10:08elevated for 2030 fleet sales of the10:11Cyber Cap. But if I drop those margins10:14to 20%, let's say, it's still 27.510:18billion dollars of operating income10:20selling 4 million cars comes from10:22selling cars.10:25That's my forecast for this company is10:28you have to sell cars.10:31And the more you can sell these damn10:33cars, the more money this company brings10:35to the bottom line. And so I want to see10:38vehicle deliveries go from four million10:40or sorry 2 million a year to four. Now10:42we still have some work to do because10:44even at this pace we have now times four10:46we're only sitting at roughly 2 million10:48like 1.93 right? That's not great. We10:51still have work to do but that's okay.10:53It's coming and this is a sign that the10:56pricing power is there. The bottoming is10:59in process for this company. It's very11:01exciting. So that's why my forecast for11:03this suggests that11:05uh at a present value of 375, let's say,11:09if you could get to $824 per share by11:12the end of 2030, this actually provides11:15you a rate of return of about 20%.11:17Which, you know, I'm a little biased,11:20but I think my little startup is going11:22to way outperform that. But duh, my11:25startup isn't a $1.5 trillion company.11:29It's a tiny little baby.11:31>> [laughter]11:32>> uh you would expect it to grow more. But11:35the point is for a big company like this11:36that's actually really good, you know,11:38on an annual compounded rate if if they11:40could pull some of these things off.11:42Now, obviously, if you come up here and11:43you discount this, you know, if I if11:45let's say I I can only get uh or capture11:50uh that's at 30%, I can only get to 24%11:53margins on those vehicle deliveries. You11:56know, we drop down to about a 16%11:58compounded annual rate of return. Uh, so12:00we could play with this. You know, I12:02could go in here and I could leave it at12:0330 and I could take out the Tesla bot12:05and I could take out the semi-truck and12:07I still get to about an 18%. Uh, so12:10there's there's some real potential12:13uh on the stock. But, uh, the bottoming12:16process now, if we go look at the12:18technicals on it, I think the next stop12:20really for Tesla on an Iran deal is12:23getting to 414. So getting to an Iran12:26deal on 414 is key.12:29And if I look at Tesla's stock on a12:32zoomed out basis, you can see we've been12:35bleeding over here. Uh, sorry, this is12:37this right here. We've been bleeding a12:39little bit the last few days, but we've12:41really stabilized above 347,12:45which is great because briefly on the12:47this was on Lioo's liquidation. That was12:50a discount. That was a treat losing that12:52purple line right here. But 347 has been12:55very stable and we just bounced off of12:58it again over here and the next line is13:01414 and I think we'll uh we'll we'll13:04head on over there um13:07soon enough. So I think this is very13:10interesting and I think it's good for13:12Tesla. It's a win for Tesla. The13:14Bloomberg does argue that there are some13:16risks of China and and I agree with13:18this. China's been a big exporter for13:20Tesla vehicles. You know, Shanghai did13:2266,000 vehicles in July alone, which,13:26you know, on a quarter is almost 200,00013:28vehicles coming just from the Shanghai13:30facility. Energy storage did miss, which13:33I have to say, I was a little bit13:34disappointed about energy storage13:36missing. I tweeted a picture of me in13:38front of the uh Tesla Power Wall because13:42we just installed it. We just paid for13:44it and got our permits and everything13:45for it, but I think it's very cool. Uh13:49I'll show you this. This says my home.13:51It's not really my home. I should maybe13:53I can like figure out how to re label13:54it. But let's see what we've got cooking13:56right now on the quote unquote virtual13:58power plant in Kie. So, as you can see14:01right now, this building is operating uh14:04at 6.1 kW of usage. I've got 1.3 kW14:10going into the power wall. So, a portion14:12of the solar that's being generated14:14right now. So, we're charging up the14:16Power Wall again because we usually14:18deploy the Power Wall when the rates are14:19the highest between like 4 to 8:00 p.m.14:22somewhere around there. But I I mean14:24they they do a great job here with the14:26app. I I really enjoy uh how they build14:29this. There's so much I mean I hate to14:30say it, but it's is way better than14:32Nphas's app. I have uh and that's the14:35thing like Nphase Enph's Enlighten app14:38doesn't have the sex appeal of Tesla. Uh14:41and and then now you could apparently14:43plug your Cybert truck in to provide14:46Cybertruck's battery backup for a house14:50which is also kind of interesting. Uh14:54I wonder if that could end up working14:56because on my home I have the Nphase14:57system so I get to compare. I mean14:59ultimately it's all the same. Tesla's15:03putting Chinese batteries in their15:05battery packs and they're probably15:07Chinese solar panels too. Uh, I have Q15:10cells, which are German cells on this15:12house that I'm in now. But we have a15:16couple different arrays, which is really15:18annoying. See, like they didn't combine15:20my sites. So, on the Infasease app, I15:23have like Kevin one and Kevin 2 for like15:26home sites, even though it's on the same15:28damn property because we added panels at15:30one point. And it's just like the app's15:33just it's just clunky. It's not as good.15:38Uh, let me see. I don't think this shows15:41anything proprietary.15:43Whatever. So, this is um15:47this is the Nphase app. And it's just15:49it's just not as cool, right? Uh 41%15:54charge,15:55produce, discharge, whatever. It's hard15:58for me to know what's live status do15:59connecting to gateway.16:02Oh my gosh, dude. It's so freaking slow.16:04Look at this. Look at that crap. makes16:07me want to vomit. So like, yeah, both of16:11these plays, by the way, worth noting,16:13they're interest rate sensitives, right?16:15So if we are, if my call is correct that16:19we are at peak yields, unable to16:21connect. Of course, you're unable to16:22connect, you dummy, freaking loser.16:27[sighs] Anyway, if it's true, uh, and my16:30call ends up being correct that we're at16:32peak yields, Tesla is a beneficiary of16:35that because my call is at 527 is peak16:40yields. 527, we're at 526 right nowish.16:46I think 527 is peak yields.16:50If that's true, and we end up getting a16:55uh what's it called? we end up getting a16:56deal with Iran,16:59then Tesla's going to skyrocket on that.17:02And Nphase might as well. NFPace has17:04like a small call option on it right now17:06as a data center play, but it's mostly17:08an interest rate sensitive play. So,17:09it's a dog stock when rates are this17:11high. Absolute trash stock with rates17:14this high. But I want to be frank here,17:18NFACE is a competitor on the energy17:21space. I mean, Tesla even missed on17:22their uh gigawatt expectations. They17:24were expecting well they got 13.717:27gawatts and they were expecting u or17:29they missed by 14%. But you could almost17:32make an argument that Nphas's bottoming17:36process is over. Right? Look at this.17:40They've come down hard and brutally17:45through the interest rate hiking cycle.17:49Let's just make these little gray cheeky17:51lines over here. and the bottom's hit.17:54And you could actually make the argument17:56that since we're at peak yields here and17:58we're still scraping along the bottom,18:00you could make the argument that this is18:02a dirt cheap company right now, $4.418:04billion with a data center call option18:08on converters, which I think they demo18:10within the next month and a half. So18:13part of me has balls to say if we get18:18peak yields and Nphas's data center call18:22option plays out, this is a dirt cheap18:25competitor. Even though they're, you18:27know, their old apps and stuff, they're18:28nothing like the sex appeal of of Tesla.18:32I mean Tesla's like a 10 out of 10, you18:35know, Sarah Eisen level sex appeal. Then18:39you got Nphase that's like a three.18:42But it'll cook you a great freaking18:44meal. [laughter]18:46Uh so anyway, where were we? Uh oh, I18:52think it's also worth mentioning that uh18:54because I see a question here about18:56should you get solar. I mean, I'll18:57answer the question if you want. By the18:59way, I do have an affiliate link with19:01Tesla. And this video is not sponsored19:02by Tesla. I'm just saying if you want19:03the referral discounts, like I just buy19:05like t-shirts or hats from Tesla or19:07whatever. I got a bunch of hats over19:09there when I get the referral credits.19:10Uh, if you go to metkaven.com/tesla,19:13that's me tke kevinvin.com/tesla. I know19:16I got to I got to make the redirect for19:18meet Kevin.com Tesla. Tesla. Maybe I'll19:20I'll do that soon. I just don't really19:22want to go into Cloudflare right now.19:23So, I'll I'll just put that up for19:24later. But anyway, met Kevin.com/tesla.19:27If you type that in,19:30there he is. Here, you get the uh19:33referral benefits for either the cars or19:36you get $400 off on solar panels or19:38power wall. So, like you're better off19:40using somebody's affiliate link than not19:42because you have $400. But, um,19:46but anyway, uh, somebody asked here,19:49"Are solar panels worth it? I've been19:51thinking about getting them, but I was19:52told they don't produce enough to pay19:53for themselves." So, we're getting about19:55a 10% return on what we spend. So, we19:58spent about $31,000 on the panels and20:00the power walls. Uh, there's a limit,20:04like there's a curve to where it doesn't20:05make sense and then it does make sense.20:07You have to do the math, but my20:09calculation puts me at about a 10.1%20:12return on investment from from this. And20:15I think that's a good deal to make. Uh,20:18and20:20for most people that return you have to20:24evaluate, but it's an after tax return,20:27right? Because if you do it on your20:28home, you're typically not writing off20:31all the electricity on your home unless20:32you're running a business out of there,20:34right? And so for most people, you're20:36saving after tax utility bills, which20:39actually boosts your returns by another,20:41you know, I'm not going to do the math20:42right now, but 30 or 40% or whatever. So20:44I think there's some added value with20:46that as well. But uh but anyway, yeah,20:49some things to think about. Now, as far20:51as uh uh there's another Bloomberg piece20:55that is bearish on Tesla that suggests20:58that Tesla, Toyota, and Hyundai do face21:02a risk of losing about 12% Tesla and 10%21:06for Toyota market share in European21:09volumes next year if Chinese add share21:13by about 5%. Now, those are a lot of21:15like numbers. Basically, a risk that you21:19have to be aware of with Tesla is that21:20yes, there is real Chinese competition.21:23Does anybody really have competition for21:25Tesla when it comes to full21:26self-driving? No, not yet. It'll come,21:29but we've been waiting for that to come21:30for years, and it's still not here. So,21:32Tesla's doing very good by staying in21:34the lead. And uh yeah, Chinese risk is a21:37risk. It's it's a risk in America, too.21:39If the Chinese start selling cars in21:41America, it's a poopy potential dupee.21:44As far as the valuation for Tesla, it is21:47still elevated. Keep in mind also Europe21:49represents about 17%21:51of uh Tesla's sales. So, you know, it's21:55not like the biggest component of Tesla.21:57It's not that big of a deal, but uh you22:00know, Chinese competition if it comes to22:01the United States, that's going to22:03that's going to create some poopy22:04dupies. But if we look at the PEG ratio22:07for Tesla, it is it is elevated right22:09now. So, we want to be clear about that.22:12uh relative to other stocks, Tesla is22:15pricey right now. Okay, Tesla right now22:17at a buck 63 on earnings per share22:20forward is trading for about 228x.22:23That's pricey. If I divide that by22:26forward growth expectations of 47, I22:29still get about a 4.8 PEG ratio. Okay, I22:33can literally go by broadcom boring22:38stupid22:39as designer photonix22:43copper play broadcom and you know what22:47I'm paying for broadcom22:54that didn't work out very well22:56I was going to say22:59less than 08 you're paying like6 six,23:02seven right now for Broadcom. So, just23:04to put the valuation in perspective,23:08okay, there are dirt cheap companies23:11right now, including Nvidia, by the way.23:14So, I've been very, very, very bullish23:16on Nvidia. I think there are robotics23:18play. I think they're a a vehicle23:20economy play. There's so many more23:22verticals than just Frontier chips,23:23although those are the highest margin23:25right now. But damn, bro. Holy moly,23:30they make me excited. And uh they are23:32dirt cheap as well. I mean they're23:34they're at alltime highs today. Finally23:36breaking out of that 227 line. But23:38anyway, if you want more of these sort23:39of projections the way I do them bottom23:43lines for you, you really really ought23:46to consider joining Reinvest One because23:49you get everything that we have to offer23:52in one lifetime package. And that23:54package will be a recurring annual23:58licensing fee in 2027. Unless you buy24:01before the end of the year. If you get24:03in in 2026, [music]24:05you will not have to pay any kind of24:08data fee, licensing fee, no nothing. You24:11get in, you get all this is an24:13incredible value. It's honestly probably24:15way too cheap for what you get. Alpha24:17membership, trade [music] alerts, the24:19stocks uh terminal coming out at the end24:21of the year. Uh, it's you like that24:24video, check this one out. I think24:25you're going to love it.24:26>> Why not advertise these things that you24:28told us here? I feel like nobody else24:30knows about this. We'll we'll try a24:31little advertising and see how it goes.24:33>> Congratulations, man. You have done so24:34much. People love you. People look up to24:36you.24:36>> Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and24:38YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to24:40get your take.
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