Transcript of Scott Bessent: "Buy it, I DARE you."
TraderNick
0:00Yesterday we saw gold drop sharply and0:02today it is rallying back here and the0:05big story is still the bond buyback0:07program that starts today. And we've0:09talked about this a lot, but if you0:10don't know what I'm referencing, the0:11Treasury announces an increased size of0:14nominal long-end liquidity support0:16buybacks beginning September 9th today.0:19Now, to put this in plain English for0:20people who aren't bond experts, uh0:23basically the idea here is that the0:24Treasury wants to keep long-term0:27borrowing rates lower. And in order to0:30do that, they are buying them themselves0:33to artificially sort of prop up the0:36value of bonds and hence keep the yields0:38lower. Now, if you're newer to bonds,0:40basically bond uh prices and bond yields0:45move inversely to one another. And what0:47I mean by this is that if nobody wants0:50to buy bonds, the price of the bond goes0:52down and in order to garner buyers,0:56yield has to go up. It is an auction0:58system, right? If people are unwilling1:00to buy bonds at current prices, they1:02move lower and the yield offered goes1:04higher. Well, this is problematic for1:06the Treasury in the sense that if1:08long-term borrowing rates are very1:11expensive and detrimental to the US1:13balance sheet, it can put pressure on1:15things later. And so the idea here from1:17the Fed, I'm sorry, from the Treasury is1:20that they want to support the bond1:22market, buy bonds, right? So that the1:24bond prices go up and the yield comes1:27down. That's the theory at least, and1:30they're pledging to sort of defend the1:31bond market in the here and now. Now,1:33somebody pointed out that in yesterday's1:35video, I talked about how this is sort1:36of QE. And then they said, well, no,1:39this is not uh QE. This is sort of a1:41refinancing operation. They're simply1:45moving money from the short end, which1:47just to explain this a little bit1:49further. Basically, uh to fund this1:52buying of long-term bonds, right,1:5430-year bonds, they're selling1:57short-term bonds. So, they're selling uh1:59you know, treasuries on the short end,2:01so the 2-year, uh 5-year, etc. They're2:04basically buying long-term, selling2:07short-term. They're sort of shuffling2:09things around. And while this is not2:12necessarily QE in its isolation, here's2:15some scenarios in which it could lead to2:17QE, which is what I was trying to get in2:19on yesterday's video. So the thought2:21process is if you basically um have to2:25borrow a bunch of money and yields2:28continuously move higher, there's a risk2:30here where basically if you are buying2:33long duration bonds and selling2:35short-term, well what if you need a lot2:37of money injected into the system and2:40you are still forced to pay higher2:43prices over here, so you have to kind of2:44go to the short end. That's what's been2:45going on. A lot of governments, they've2:47been uh borrowing shortterm.2:50um selling short term and and in order2:52to do that yields uh might be2:55problematic in the short term too. And2:57here's the problem with lending for just2:59two years. If you borrow a bunch of3:01money on a 2-year basis, two years3:04later, this could be much higher and3:07that could cause some reinvestment risk3:09or some rebaring risk at the duration in3:11which you need to borrow more money. So3:13there is some potential and and by the3:15way, how would you do that? Well, QE3:17printing money to pay for the new, you3:20know, interest that you're going to have3:21to pay at higher rates. So, it is3:23convoluted and a little bit complex at3:24first glance, but what matters and what3:27I hear out of it is still the narrative3:29is a lot of QE is kind of expected.3:32Quantitative easing, I I should have3:34defined that earlier. But QE, this3:36concept of money printing is something3:38that I think is not going to stop3:41anytime soon. Here's a couple reasons3:43why.3:46Okay, so here's a snapshot of the3:47thesis. The first part is that I think3:49the AI trade, which is obviously where a3:52lot of growth in the US economy is3:54coming from right now. This data center3:56buildout is missionritical because it is3:59the vehicle for growth. Growth is4:02ultimately what's going to generate tax4:04revenue, what's going to generate uh a4:06consensus that the US is the place to4:08be, keeping it the reserve currency, the4:10reserve status, and the capital markets4:12hub for the world. The AI trade being4:15centered in USA in my opinion is4:17missionritical for not just Republicans4:19and not just for Democrats but for4:21America as a whole. We have to keep the4:23AI trade focused on the US. And so4:26keeping borrowing rates low for4:28businesses to continuously invest in the4:30AI trade is important. If you make4:33borrowing if borrowing costs blow out,4:35for example, investors get skittish and4:38company companies who are borrowing all4:40this money to build out the AI trade,4:41they might pause. they might slow their4:43borrowing and that process could lead to4:46disaster in the stock market which is a4:48really painful thing for our next4:50category which is votes. Uh the current4:53administration like any administration4:55who would be in power right now wants to4:57keep votes coming their way. And how do5:00you do this? Well certainly not by5:01letting gas prices get out of control5:03and certainly not by letting mortgages5:06continue to mortgage rates continue to5:08sky higher. So when [snorts] we look at5:10this, I think there's a vested interest5:11in keeping borrowing costs low for5:15consumers and for businesses and also5:17for the government itself. Borrowing5:19rates in check for national debt5:20purposes keep things from blowing out.5:23So whether this is all going to work out5:25or not, I have no idea. But my point is5:28there is a very strong outline here. We5:31also know from Treasury Secretary Scott5:33Bessant. has reiterated over and over5:35that the path to getting out of this5:38national debt situation is not to pay5:40down the debt but to outgrow the debt.5:43And we'll see how it works. I have no5:44idea but it depends heavily on this AI5:48trade and keeping borrowing costs low.5:50So I think that there is a huge5:52incentive for that. And the one thing5:54that I see is most clear is money5:56printing. The dollar is likely, in my5:59opinion, going to see continued6:01devaluation as other currencies will as6:04well. The question is, is the dollar6:06worse off than other places? That's a6:09question for the currency traders out6:10there. But for the gold traders out6:13there, this weakness in the dollar that6:14I think is coming is a bullish tailwind6:17for precious metals. So, I remain pretty6:20bullish on precious metals for the6:22reasons that we just spoke as well as6:24from a macro perspective. I think that6:26we have a big check mark uh or X mark6:29coming our way with this Thursday and6:31Friday's producer price index and6:33consumer price index numbers. You can6:35see that we have those numbers expected6:37to come out this week. So stay tuned on6:39that. Uh the last time we got those6:41numbers were August 12th. So we'll keep6:44an eye as that fresh data is coming in6:46in the next few days. Now we are also6:48expecting to get some retail sales6:49numbers pretty soon which could be6:51intriguing as well to see what growth is6:53looking like. But from a macro6:55perspective, what this dashboard here is6:56showing you is that our economic growth6:58metrics have been soft, which is more of7:01a bullish thing for gold. Let's break7:03this down really quick. Rapid fire.7:05Manufacturing PMIs softer than expected.7:07That's bearish for the dollar, bullish7:09for gold. Services PMIs work against us7:11here. Stronger than expected. That's7:12bullish for dollar, bearish for gold.7:14Retail sales last time around were7:16weaker than expected. Good for gold.7:18Consumer confidence weak. Good for gold.7:20If we take a look at inflation, again,7:22this is subject to change as we have7:24these two data points coming out this7:26week. But previous time around, the7:28producer price index was softer than7:30expected and CPI came in in line with7:32expectations. What this software does,7:34by the way, this is really important7:35that we make this distinction. It7:37focuses on the surprise category. Most7:40traders, they make the mistake of only7:41looking at the absolute figure, whereas7:44they don't consider forecast vers that7:47averse that figure. That's the really7:49important stuff. That's what moves7:50markets. Markets move on surprises. And7:52so EdgeFinder does a proper job at7:55actually outlining what the surprise in7:57each one of these core categories that7:59the Federal Reserve watches is. Right?8:01So we want to pay attention to where8:03that data point comes in versus what the8:06market was anticipating. And that is8:08where you're going to get clear8:09directional trends that we can map out,8:11visualize, and actually use as insights8:13for our trades. So that said, overall8:15macroeconomics are looking pretty8:17bullish for gold. We've had some8:19softness in the jobs data outside of the8:21non-farm payroll. The non-farm payroll8:23was very strong. So, but taking8:25everything into consideration, most of8:27our metrics lean bullish for gold. And8:29so, this software has automated that8:31component looking at economic growth,8:33inflation, and jobs market and punching8:35out a scorecard or summary for us to8:37read along. And by the way, currently8:39EdgeFinder is on superale right now. If8:41you're interested in getting access to8:43that during our 40% off sale event,8:46check out the QR code that you see on8:47the screen right now or click the very8:48first link in the description down below8:50to speak to our support team about8:52getting set up with a copy. We are also8:54offering payment plans to make the cost8:55more affordable if that is easier for8:57you to split up the cost over a few8:58months. And here's something cool about9:00our software. It is not a pay forever9:03type of subscription model. I think most9:05people are sick of that sort of thing.9:06Everyone's paying on subscriptions9:08forever. What we do, and I think this is9:10cool that we've done this, and we will9:12continue to do this for the foreseeable9:13future, uh we are offering EdgeFinder as9:16a one-time price. So, you pay, you get9:18access, and you don't have to pay9:19forever. And I think that that to me is9:21something that I would really want,9:23especially if you see yourself trading9:24for multiple years from now. The9:26software is super cheap in relation to9:28your daily use for the tool. So, if9:30you've thought about getting a copy in9:32the past, now is the best time to do so.9:34This promo code YTVIP gets you 40% off9:36the tool. And if you want to split it up9:39into a payment plan, or if you have9:41questions, you need some more9:42information, you want to see some9:44examples, you want to try it out, uh9:46here's how you can do so. To set up a9:48custom payment plan that works for your9:50current budget so that you don't miss9:51the sale, scan this QR code or click the9:54first link in the description down below9:55to speak to someone on my staff who can9:57help set this up for you. This is meant9:59to give people in various countries10:00where the dollar might be more10:01expensive, flexibility, etc. So, all the10:04information, like I said, can be found10:05there. And speaking about that10:07debasement stuff, the devaluation of the10:09dollar and fiat currency globally, what10:12we actually see here today is the dollar10:13continues to trend lower. And from a10:15price action perspective, this is10:17looking really constructive in my view.10:19Uh if we can break through these lows10:21here right around 98 uh60, 96 uh 9880,10:26this range here that we are currently10:27testing, if we can break with some10:29decisive candlesticks below this, uh I10:31think that we are probably headed on10:33down to the lows here, this 98 mark. And10:35when I say low, I'm zooming out and I'm10:37looking at this low that we put in uh10:39back around April of this year. And if10:42that level breaks, I think from a bigger10:44picture perspective, if you come down10:46into this level and you fail at 98, uh10:49then I think that as long as macro10:51continues to support a downward move in10:53the dollar, you have potential to make10:55our way back down to this 90 96 level or10:58so. So I generally lean bearish on the11:00US dollar and I also have a long11:02position on things like the Australian11:04dollar. So, at this point, I've gone11:06through a couple trades that I'm in. I'm11:07long the Australian dollar. This was11:08another edgeinder idea. If we switch11:10over to Aussie dollar, you can see it's11:12getting a very solid reading on11:14edgeinder the last several days. So, I11:16went long on Aussie dollar on a11:18pullback. This one has been a really11:19nice profitable trade for me. And I'm11:21just trailing stops from here. The Euro11:23dollar is also looking pretty strong11:24here on a daily chart perspective. Look11:26at how well that 38.2% retracement held.11:28The pound dollar also holding the 50%11:30retracement zone. And dollar yen has11:33been plummeting lower. I think this is11:34another reason that gold is moving11:36higher. It just makes sense if you think11:37about it. If the Japanese yen is11:40strengthening today and we can take a11:41look at this JXY. You can see this is11:43the Japanese yen uh index is violently11:47higher here. Really really ripping to11:48the upside. This makes sense as to why11:50it might be bullish for gold if you11:53think about it because uh a strength in11:55the yen is weakness relatively speaking11:57in the US dollar, right? As currencies12:01trade relative to one another. So a12:02really big blowout in one currency12:04weakens others on a relative basis. So12:06when we look at dollar yen breaking12:08through this 156 mark and now testing12:11the low 150s if you start if you start12:14to see dollar yen break through this12:16level for example this would actually be12:18somewhat alarming in terms of the uh12:21potential riskoff flow that it could12:23lead the dollar could flood much lower12:25in that circumstance as the yen is a big12:27counterweight to the DXY. So, we want to12:30keep an open mind to if the yen is12:32seriously strengthening right now, if12:34they're going to get serious about rate12:35hikes and defending the yen and the US12:38Treasury is also in on it, um this could12:40be a little bit more uh pain in the12:42short term for dollar yen uh bulls. So,12:45in my opinion, I I actually think that12:47the yen likely does continue to12:50strengthen versus other currencies. Uh,12:52and I think that they're getting serious12:53about that to sort of support um, Japan,12:56who is, as we've talked about many times12:58on the channel, a massive holder of US13:01treasuries. Remember the uh, remember13:04the administration, the Treasury does13:06not want yields to continue to move13:07higher. They're trying to fight this13:09trend in uh, yields and Japan is a huge13:13holder of US treasuries. So, if Japan13:16needs to defend the yen, they need to13:17raise cash. to raise cash to buy the13:19yen, they would need to sell treasuries.13:22Remember, bond prices move inversely to13:25bond yields. So remember that if they13:28need to sell US bonds, that would in13:32turn send yields higher. And so the US13:35government does not want that to happen.13:37So I think what's happening here is the13:40basically joint effort from the US and13:43Japan to strengthen the yen a little bit13:45uh and for the US Treasury to buy its13:48own bonds allowing Japan to perhaps sell13:51US treasuries in order to buy the yen.13:52That's that's my take on the situation.13:54I know it's kind of complex and feel13:56free to rewind and listen to that a few13:58times if you're newer to this stuff. It13:59is complex at first glance. Uh but that14:01is, you know, what I think is14:03potentially going on here. We also see14:04Japanese bond yields moving a little bit14:06lower here today. Maybe a little bit of14:08trust coming back into the system. Uh14:10people have been very worried that the14:12Bank of Japan would not hike rates14:14enough to get in front of the inflation14:16concerns and to strengthen the yen14:18enough. And uh it seems like at least14:20right now that markets are kind of14:21repricing. Maybe they're a little bit14:23more serious than we had thought. So14:25keep an eye on that dollar yen chart.14:26It's a very interesting one to watch14:27right now. Today's video is sponsored by14:30Ola Prime. Whether you're a futures14:32trader, a forex trader, a gold trader,14:35whatever you are, Ola Prime has one of14:37the widest selections of trading account14:39types for their traders. They offer a14:42lot of opportunity to scale into larger14:44accounts over time and offer some of the14:47most competitive pricing that I've seen14:48in the prop firm space. 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So, I16:16generally think that the yen has a16:17little bit of room to continue moving16:18higher. And stocks are a little bit16:19lower here today. S&P 500 down about4%16:23and sort of just chattering around.16:25We're not really seeing a very decisive16:27move in either direction with stocks16:28recently. We've mostly been stuck in a16:30range after this big pop. We pretty much16:32have gone into a sideways range. I think16:35that if you do start to lose this 38.216:37two uh% retracement zone. If this level16:39gets broken, then I think we're back16:41stuck in the rangebound market that we16:44have been the last several months. I16:46mean, stocks really have not gone very16:48far, at least as a collective group. And16:50in my view, um EdgeFinders S&P 500 soft16:54or bearish reading recently has been uh16:56reasonably accurate. First got bearish,16:59let's see, when August 25th. So, August17:0225th was right around here. So, we got a17:05bearish reading. So, it's really gone17:07pretty much nowhere since then, but for17:08the most part, stocks have been uh kind17:11of a rangebound, choppy, downward17:13market. That being said, stock sentiment17:15has actually been improving a little17:17bit. Taking a look at the AI investor17:20sentiment survey, we see that crowd17:21sentiment is for the first time in a17:24while more bullish than it is bearish.17:26If we scroll down here, crowd sentiment17:28has been uh trending a little higher in17:30terms of bullish sentiment on the AI. Uh17:34but we can see bearish sentiment also a17:36little bit declining here recently and17:37pretty neutral in terms of our put call17:39ratio. Maybe slightly more leaning17:41bearish than bullish. More people buying17:43puts than calls. Pretty neutral on the17:46net uh call minus put daily volume17:48spread as well though. So really not a17:50huge directional bias in terms of crowd17:52sentiment which kind of fits the the17:54neutral narrative recently. And because17:55we're doing some sentiment checks, let's17:57also do gold here really quick. Crowd17:59sentiment has been pretty pessimistic on18:00gold recently. We went from a really18:02bullish crowd sentiment to a really18:04bearish one. And this actually to me is18:06more of a tailwind, meaning a positive18:08factor. When I see crowd sentiment18:10betting that the downside could be18:11coming, a lot of times that is perfectly18:14timed for an upside move to kind of18:16disappoint the put buyers out there who18:18are betting this thing is going to move18:20lower. Um is of course not perfect or or18:23certain, but you can see like right18:24around this August 25th to August 24th18:27range. You can see that's like right18:29here. So crowd sentiment was very18:31positive for two weeks or so. Uh and18:33then gold had this sort of uh large18:36couple day downside move where we saw a18:388 to 9% drop very quickly. So a lot of18:41times when you get crowd sentiment sort18:43of really one directional a lot of times18:45there's a bit of a disappointment move18:47to kind of uh squash the call buyers or18:50put buyers. In this case, we're looking18:52at a situation where there's a lot more18:53put action going on. And as people build18:55up their put positioning, perhaps gold18:58will jolt higher. The market makers19:00might love that, right? As a lot of19:02times, market makers are the ones19:03selling these puts or calls. So, right19:05now, market makers selling a bunch of19:07puts down here. Uh if the if the, you19:09know, gold chart rallies, those puts19:11become worthless, and that is good for19:13the market maker. Learning to read19:15options data like this, even if you19:16don't trade options, is super useful19:18because it can be a great indicator for19:21understanding positioning and sentiment19:23within markets. Speaking of which, I19:25spoke all about crowd sentiment in19:27greater detail on gold specifically19:29today during today's live stream. If you19:31want to check that out, watch this next19:32clip here. Stick around and I think19:34you'll find it very interesting. If19:36you're interested in tracking like smart19:37money versus crowd sentiment, this next19:39segment is for you. Check it out. So,19:41let's take a look like just a real quick19:43deep dive on19:45crowd sentiment versus institutional19:47sentiment. Let's start with19:48institutional sentiment with gold. Big19:52money is betting gold's going to go19:53higher. Like, I can I can state that as19:55an objective fact here from the CFTC's19:57commitment of traders data. Here it is.20:00Big money is long gold. They are pushing20:02the gold bullish narrative. While we're20:05here, let me just check silver because20:07I'm also modestly bullish at Well, I am20:10bullish on silver as well. If we look at20:13s Whoa, look at this. Silver had two20:16back-to-back weeks with incredible20:19bullish lean.20:23Wow, that's intriguing. They bought20:26silver, man. Look at that big change.20:28They20:30decreased short contracts pretty20:32substantially. They're now 80% long on20:35silver,20:3720% short.20:39Okay, gold. They are almost this is the20:44most This is the most bullish we've seen20:46gold in terms of institutional20:49positioning. Now, you can read that two20:52different ways.20:54You can read this and you can say, well,20:55institutions are absolutely bullish on20:58gold.21:00big money, hedge funds, banks, like21:01they're betting gold's going higher.21:03Okay, we can track that. We have the21:05tools right in front of us to see that.21:07You can also read it though as this is21:09very crowded positioning.21:12Now, I don't necessarily think that when21:15it comes to institutions, the smart21:17money at the table,21:19a really crowded trade is not a reason21:23to sell now.21:26But let me explain this. If institutions21:28are really crowded on a trade, it21:31doesn't guarantee it's going higher21:32either. So, let me give you a 200821:36example. In 2008,21:39big banks, hedge funds were long the21:43market and were predicting the market21:45would continue to go much higher. Okay,21:48going into 2008, we all know what21:51happened in 2008. You had a terrible21:54crash lower.21:57However, they didn't get bullish at the22:00end. They got bullish way earlier than22:03that and rode the bull market for22:04multiple years before it crashed. So,22:07when we look at gold here and we see22:09something kind of similar like22:10institutions are really bullish on gold,22:13some people will look at this and be22:14like, "Oh, crowd sentiment is going to22:17crash and and you know, fall apart22:19because crowd sent or uh I'm sorry,22:21institutional sentiment is really22:22bullish." And guys, I'm going to I'm22:24going to pass over the show at 9:1522:26tomorrow. I'm just going to finish this22:27thought and then we'll we'll transition22:28here. Um, so final thought on this, I22:33would lean more bullish on this as a b22:35this is a bullish indicator to me until22:37something breaks or changes in the in22:39the dollar trade and the gold trade. Um,22:42crowded sentiment from institutions22:46does not really bother me. Now longer22:48term it means I want to stay on watch in22:51case there's a structural change to the22:52to the fundamental story. But I think22:55institutions22:56see what we see which is the debasement22:58risk, the fiat currency is going to fall23:01apart, etc. And I think that23:02institutions are continuously parking23:05long positions in gold for one reason23:08and one reason only. They think gold's23:09going higher, right? They think gold is23:12going higher as a result of the23:14debasement risk. What is debasement23:16risk? It's the concept that the Fed uh23:18or I'm sorry that the the administration23:20is going to print money to fuel the AI23:22trade that they're going to continuously23:25uh the debt's going to go higher.23:26They're going to keep paying off their23:27debt with more printed money. Fiat23:30currency devaluation I think is a huge23:33reason for gold to stay strong. So that23:35is part of the reason why I'm bullish on23:37gold. The other reason we've talked a23:39lot about it put call ratio screaming23:42bearish from crowd sentiment. So, the23:44options market is showing you that a23:46bunch of people are shorting gold.23:47They're betting gold's going to go23:48lower. And I think that from the options23:51dealer side of things, that is a sweet23:53opportunity to kind of squeeze the other23:55direction. So, if everyone's buying23:56puts, right, if everyone's buying puts,23:58that's a way to read this, there's a a a24:00preference for buying puts on GLD, which24:02is gold, right? If there is a preference24:05there, a lot of times the price will24:07shoot higher to sort of squeeze all24:09those put buyers. uh and that is24:11something that we very often see when24:13crowd sentiment gets onedirectionally uh24:15biased. So those are reasons from a24:18sentiment perspective and you can see24:19everything that I just explained is auto24:22automatically factored into edgefinders24:23reading. Institutions are very bullish24:26on gold. We already talked about that24:27and crowd sentiment is super pessimistic24:29giving us a bullish uh score here or24:33signal within edgefinder. So overall um24:37we are still slightly underwater here in24:39terms of score. We're just slightly24:41under bullish reading for the technical24:43reasons. Uh 4hour trends a little choppy24:45here. Not quite giving us a bullish24:46reading, but that's what I'm looking for24:48is for that to flip bullish. Thanks for24:50watching and before you go, remember our24:52edgefinder discount is happening right24:54now. We're currently offering 40% off24:55for a limited time. All the information24:57can be found in the description down24:58below. See you guys next time. Trading25:00fundamentals can be a lot of hard25:02[music] work, but we actually made a25:04pretty cool free Telegram channel where25:06we are publishing constantly [music]25:08updates on what is going on from a macro25:11fundamentals perspective. And no, it's25:13not AI. It's not written by a robot.25:15It's written by a real person on our25:16team. His name is Allan. He puts25:18together a report each day on what is25:20going on on things like gold, currency25:22pairs, commodities, [music] indices,25:24etc. on a global financial fundamental25:27analysis basis. It's a really cool25:29newsletter where you can basically stay25:31on top of things by reading for like a25:33minute per day. If that would be25:34interesting to you to join the free25:36Telegram channel, there is a link in the25:38description down below on this video25:40that you can join and get into the25:42action there. We also offer special25:44discount perks for our products as well25:46as [music] for funded accounts and for25:49brokerages, etc. And we also do some25:51giveaways as well. So [music] definitely25:53take a second to join the Telegram25:55channel in the description down below. I25:57also want to take a second to just25:58genuinely thank you for supporting my26:00content here. Make sure to subscribe and26:02hit the thumbs up button if you have not26:03already. And I do hope that more videos26:05in the [music] future will continue to26:07help you on your trading journey. Good26:08luck. Thanks for watching.
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