Transcript of The Worlds Biggest Debt Markets Are Worried…
FX Evolution - Trading Academy
0:00Is the US government starting to panic0:02as Wall Street puts the pressure once0:04again on the bonds markets around the0:06world, forcing yields back to where it0:08all began and treasuries almost to now a0:1120-year plus low? Yes, guys, whether0:14you're a trader or an investor, right0:16now there's a lot going on as0:17alternative markets start to absolutely0:20go wild. Silver's trading for more in0:22China. Gold stocks are now outperforming0:25gold for the first time in a while. and0:27Bitcoin is going absolutely bonkers. So,0:30what do you need to know right now about0:32markets? Well, get ready for a big video0:34as we have a lot to unpack. Whether you0:36like stocks, commodities, or cryptos,0:39let's get into it right now together.0:45Well, welcome back to one of the largest0:46daily shows on the planet when it comes0:48to markets around the world. It's great0:49to have you here. And the last 24 hours0:51was of course another important one as0:53we saw markets realistically digest some0:56very worrying news when it comes to the0:58American consumer. Hello, my name is1:00Thomas. I've been in markets for over 171:02years and on this channel we bring1:03institutional style insights and1:06behavioral finance together to really1:08better understand what Wall Street is1:10doing, not necessarily what they're1:12saying. If that interests you, remember1:14to subscribe and smash that like button.1:16Well, let's kick things off here with1:17one of our favorite times of the week,1:18which is just look at the sentiment1:20reports this week, guys. More bears,1:23little bit more bulls, little bit less1:24people sitting on the fence. And you1:26might say, well, what is that telling1:27us? It's telling us that there's a1:29certain level of confusion in the1:31markets. It's not concentrated to one1:33side and therefore price action is going1:35to become super important. And also the1:38potential of more kangaroo style markets1:41becomes more prevalent because when1:43people are confused you get a lot of1:45rallies, you get a lot of dumps and you1:47get a lot of kangaroo. All right, let's1:49start things here though with the big1:50story of the last 24 hours which may be1:52actually silver but we'll talk about1:54that soon. It's also Walmart and Walmart1:57according to at economy app economy2:00insights over on X guys did have a2:03pretty good report here based on this2:04handy chart. They were up 6%2:06year-on-year on revenue. But at the same2:08time, we saw a couple of worrying signs2:12about the K-shaped economy. That is what2:14is going on with the bottom ends of the2:17American consumer versus the top end.2:19And Wall Street really pays a lot of2:21attention, as you guys know, to Walmart.2:24Now, in this case, I actually asked you2:26guys over on our X uh account what you'd2:29been seeing on the ground floor, and a2:32few of you had some really good2:33responses. We got a response about the2:35fact that you are observing more2:37Facebook marketplace items than ever2:40before and people are just selling stuff2:42and it's basically a glut of items2:44around there possibly showing that2:46people are really trying to get that2:48cash uh to help pay for the lifestyle.2:50Are you guys seeing that as well? We2:52also got another one that I thought was2:53an interesting perspective and this is2:55why it's so great to have a great2:56community which is that uh maybe we are2:59seeing people boycotting potentially3:01Walmart due to some recent information3:03and then of course a lot of you guys3:04saying yeah it's real it's all got to do3:07with uh the cost of living crisis which3:09of course is one of the biggest3:10discussion points across pretty much any3:13western nation right now especially with3:15diesel prices being through the roof. So3:17with the Walmart weekly chart here,3:19you'll note that it has closed below3:22that little trend line that took us up.3:25Now the reason you want to pay attention3:26to these types of things is although3:28this is not a real discretionary spend3:30by itself, it does start to show us the3:34difference and of course it also brings3:36into question the debts. Guys, as you3:38know, bonds, bonds, bonds, and something3:40[clears throat] we've seen in more3:41recent times has been credit card aras,3:44that is credit card debt that's going3:46over 90 days. That's been starting to3:49increase. And we've also started to see3:51the auto loans of 2022 starting to go3:54into higher level of aras. Now, no one3:57really cares until they care. But guess3:59what? The bonds market is starting to4:01fracture a little bit here, and the4:03American government is of course getting4:04involved. So, just 24 hours ago, we had4:07Bessant come out and basically say,4:08"We're going to change from 2 billion to4:104 billion." And we'll be doing a deeper4:12dive on this on our weekend video. So,4:14make sure to subscribe and hit the bell4:16because this will be a really important4:17one. And then all of a sudden, the4:19market rallied. And as we discussed in4:21the last video, there was a suspicion4:23that we might see the market try to4:24pressure this level again. This is4:26something that's happened many times4:27with central banks. Central banks have4:29to show a very strong arm when they4:31start to do this type of thing. And4:33we've already seen just over the last 244:35hours, Bessant come out again and said,4:36"We've got a lot of tools." Remember the4:38toolkit, guys? The old Fed chairs4:40toolkit. Well, we've got tools now in4:42terms of potentially even flooding the4:45market with even more. And you know, the4:47worrying thing about this a little bit4:48is that we saw something before the GFC4:51happened here as well back in 2007. So,4:55yeah, more on that very soon. But this4:56is actually this type of thing that you4:58see when you've got a central bank or5:01you've got a government starting to5:03panic about the debt and liquidity.5:05Remember just about what 3 4 days ago we5:08were just talking about how the biggest5:10hyperscalers in the world that is the5:12magnificent 7 the AI data they are5:14actually taking liquidity from5:16treasuries. This is uh all part of the5:18story line along with what's going on5:20with the bank of Japan and of course the5:22intervention into the carry trade. It5:25is, I think, still a story that is going5:27to unpack over the next four to six5:29months. Are you guys worried about this?5:30Let us know in the comments down below.5:32Really interested to hear your opinions.5:34We'll bring it up on the weekend in the5:35special. Let's now discuss the US dollar5:37because of course that started to5:39weaken. And the real question here is if5:41we continue to weaken, could we be in a5:44flag towards the downside and therefore5:46have a really large pole length that5:49could get quite a lot worse fairly5:51quickly? The US dollar is macro side a5:54little bit too heavily positioned to the5:55bull side. So if it does start to fall5:57off a cliff like this, you could be in5:59for what we call a waterfall event or6:01basically a reverse squeeze. So this is6:04something to continue to watch. The US6:06dollar, a lot of good macro guys will be6:09considering this to be negative,6:10especially if you think it's later6:12cycle. Kind of a classic thing that6:14starts to happen later cycle. But6:16considering the latest dollar bullish6:17bets, this chart here from Duality6:19Research just kind of shows that when6:21people get this heavy in the bull side,6:23not every time because of course last6:25time we were up here, we ended up having6:27a mega rally. But if we do end up6:29getting the price action flow towards6:30the downside, things could get nasty6:33fairly quickly. And I think not enough6:34people are probably talking about the6:35dollar right now. Speaking of talking6:37about something, jeez, just 3 4 weeks6:39ago guys, what did we see? We had gold6:42sitting at that demand level and we were6:44talking about it and we were saying,6:46"Look, this is an interesting area." And6:49the press, what do we say on the channel6:51together? Let's say it. If it's in the6:53press, it's in the price.6:58Look at that, guys. There's a chef's6:59kiss going out there because I've got to7:02say, absolutely phenomenal how this type7:04of thing happens time and time and time7:06and time and time again. And what that7:08is is everyone was negative on gold.7:10It's dead. people in the comments7:11section, "Oh, it's dead, Tom. It's the7:14horrible. You're an idiot. You're an7:15idiot, man." Well, gold stocks just7:19performed 41% over the last rolling7:22month. And although I'm not saying, "Oh,7:24wow, that's amazing, and this thing's7:26going to the moon or anything like7:27that." The point is abundance. The point7:30is so many different opportunities in7:32the markets. We've seen diesel prices.7:34We've seen just the other 24 hours ago,7:36biotech went crazy. Healthcare has been7:38going for two months with bio. you know,7:40lots of different things. If you're7:42somebody that's just only ever looked at7:44tech, only ever looked at the indices,7:46open your minds to everything else. It's7:48amazing what's out there. Anyway, 41%7:51here. Woo, that's a big number. And if7:53you have a look here at the last 247:54hours, gold stocks still doing well. And7:56you might say, why? Well, it's partly7:59because gold stocks are actually8:02performing well because they're making a8:03ton of money. And they've also got8:05contracts as well that are being written8:06now at higher prices. So, if you look at8:09gold versus gold stocks, which we'll do8:12a little bit later on today's video, you8:14might see an interesting phenomenon that8:15we haven't had for over a decade. So,8:18it's a really interesting level for it.8:19Now, gold weekly chart, uh, we talked8:22about the first node. Basically, the8:23markets came to this level. Could they8:26go higher? Could they go to the second8:28volume node? It's certainly possible,8:29but what's been actually happening last8:3124 hours was silver was playing8:33catch-up. and silver's getting close to8:35a resistance we'll see on the charts8:37very very soon. Another one is just to8:39show how fast these markets are. I mean,8:41Bitcoin broke and closed above this8:44previous little resistance level thanks8:46to, of course, the White House meeting.8:47At the same time, we've seen alt assets8:49due to the Treasury's intervention8:51because this scares people, guys. It8:54scares the big players. The big players8:55say, "Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.8:57We've seen this before. What are you8:58worried about here? What is going on?9:00Why are you intervening over here? Have9:02you lost control? And when you lose9:04control, alt assets become interesting.9:06And this is actually, I think, part of9:08the reason why Bitcoin's moving up. What9:10do you think though in the comments? Let9:11us know. Always interested to see your9:13opinions. So, the reason I bring this9:15chart up is this was 24 hours ago. Let's9:17fast forward to where we are right now9:19and have a look at the next chart. Wow.9:22It does show you one of the important9:24factors and that is that when you're9:25looking at charts, you've got to think,9:27okay, if we've been coiling for a very9:29long time, when eventually a breakout9:31happens, we often move from what we call9:33an equilibrium level to an equilibrium9:35level. And it seems like, at least for9:38now, Bitcoin's trying to do that. And9:40it's getting closer to potentially that9:42next equilibrium level. But at the same9:44time, you know, if what happens if we9:46break past this level, could we actually9:48be seeing a new start of a bit of a9:50Bitcoin run coming off, you know,9:52certain key fibs. Also, the other thing9:54as well, just Bitcoin in general being9:56one of the most hated assets of the last9:58year. So, again, playing a little bit of10:00catch-up. Interesting times. Let's go10:02over to this chart here from Blue Curtic10:04Market Insights, and that is could we be10:07going into this mid midterm year10:09similarly to the market in 1978? that is10:12a drop into a rally into consolidation10:16into a rally into10:18not so good. So this is of course you10:20know more around that October period.10:23Remember midterm election years one of10:25the things that's a big problem it's10:26often the volatility in September and10:28October. Why? Well markets hate10:31uncertainty and of course as we approach10:33closer to this event we might be heading10:35into this type of thing. It's an10:37interesting one there from Blue Kurdic.10:38But remember, you've got to consider it10:39with a grain of salt because it's all10:41about bringing together the price10:43action, the data, and the flows. Not10:44just one thing, guys. You've got to10:46build a process across multiple things.10:48So, just please remember that. And10:50please remember risk management super10:52important, especially in 2026. I will10:54keep bringing up the old financials,10:56large transaction. The reason going to10:59focus on financials, it's still got to11:01do with debt. So if we see debt of11:03course increasing across the board and11:05we start to see freakout in the11:06financials, it just shows that there11:08could be cockroach contagion. And just a11:10quick reminder as well, this chart here11:12from Bloomberg Morning Star and at Hedgy11:14Markets over on X who shared it11:16basically shows here that bond funds buy11:19more corporate bonds and they are11:21trimming treasuries. So of course this11:23is part of the story, but it's only just11:26part of it. There's clearly something11:27going on in the debt markets and the US11:31government is paying a lot of attention.11:33Are we going to go further? This is11:36crystal ball stuff of course, but this11:37chart here from Ryan Dietrich and Carson11:39Research, shout out to them. Give them a11:41follow guys. Basically shows here that11:44the market is probably what 3.9 years11:46into the current bull. Once you go past11:48the standard average, which is just11:50around 100% then you do enter into the11:53twilight. So could we be going to 511:56years or even 6 years and if we go past11:58there could we be seeing a big 11 1212:01year run I tend to believe this is12:03probably not what's happening I remain12:05open to this and um even you know12:08shorter it's possible earnings earnings12:10earnings the last 24 hours I'm telling12:12you I'll talk about this on the weekend12:14even anthropic it's trying to speed it12:16up did you see that did you see the12:18announcements supposedly it was like12:20we're going to do it in 27 we're going12:22to do it in October of 2612:24We're going to do it in a few days. You12:25know, seriously, they are moving things12:27forward very quickly. Why is that12:30exactly? Just a reminder, guys. Well, if12:33you haven't followed us over on X, make12:34sure to do so. I do write a quick12:36summary of some of the things that we're12:38going to talk about in this video with12:40my things that caught my attention12:41today. So, if you've only got like12:43literally 2 seconds and you want to kind12:44of go over and read some stuff, then go12:47follow us on X. I do post them here12:48daily. It's like a quick summary. I hope12:50you guys enjoy that and you follow us12:53over on X. So, let's start off with the12:55big charts. Okay, first up here,12:56Walmart. So, you'll note that it's been12:58in kind of a double topping pattern here13:01for a little while and it came back,13:04retested that previous support, became13:06resistance, came down, and then fell13:08over the last 24 hours, 9% on the13:11earnings. Now, Walmart does show part of13:14the story. It obviously shows a weakness13:16here, but you also also need to be13:18paying attention to things like Amazon13:19just to see what's going on. And you13:21also want to be looking at the combos of13:24consumer discretionary versus staple.13:26Now, this is one of them, which is just13:28consumer discretionary versus staple.13:30The problem with that is that you end up13:33uh getting kind of too much uh attention13:36to Tesla, uh Amazon, that kind of stuff.13:39So, we want to be basically looking at13:42an equal weight here. And when we start13:44looking at an equal weight, you can see13:46that the American consumer and I'm going13:48to overlay here Walmart for a second are13:51[clears throat] starting to move. Well,13:53Walmart seems to be going faster, but13:55basically they're starting to we've13:57gotten rid of it, guys. There we go.13:59We'll put it back here. So, Walmart's14:00starting to move kind of faster, but14:02there's been weakness here since pretty14:04much around when Walmart topped. And if14:07we go under ratios, such as this one14:09here, and we'll delete this Walmart14:11chart to get rid of it for a second. If14:13we go underneath 1.7, I think we could14:15have a serious significant issue on our14:17hands. And especially if that happens14:19when you've got bonds. Basically, the14:21American consumer, let's call it almost14:22a third of the US economy, although it's14:24mostly a service economy as you guys14:26know, has really moved into this point14:29where if we start to lose, you know, the14:31the middle class in general and the14:33lower class, then we're starting to see14:35a huge problem. And I think this is14:38across so many countries right now. this14:40diesel price thing is going to go into14:42food. Just the last 24 hours, what did14:44we see? MOO. Look at the look at the14:46improvement here in the MOO, the14:48agricultural area of the charts actually14:51moved up again and we're seeing that in14:54certain big stocks. So, of course,14:56things like nutrient as well. Have a14:58look here. 3.72 just the last 24 hours.15:02But really, ever since we started to get15:03this problem coming through in diesel,15:05it's been moving. And um that is showing15:08us that there's a real cost hike coming15:10potentially here to food to uh anything15:14really in the whole ecosystem out there.15:16If we go to corporates as well,15:18corporate bonds got saved as we already15:20talked about crossorrelation is a thing.15:23Corporates LQD here finding support.15:26Treasuries finding support then dropping15:28from that little bit of resistance that15:30we saw at 83. And most of this was15:32caused by of course the yields15:34themselves getting back up. And at the15:36time of this recording, we're actually15:37seeing yields continuing to rise, which15:40probably means that the Wall Street15:42buffins, these guys, they're going to be15:44putting pressure on the government to15:47possibly say, you know, oh yeah, we're15:49bringing more. We're bringing more of15:50the toolkit, guys. And they're asking15:53for how how much do you really mean it?15:55I think it's a test. And you know, with15:57a good test comes a lot of pressure.16:00Same time, who controls the longer16:02baited yields? Realistically, it's the16:04market itself. So 30 years like this,16:06but that all important 10 year that's16:08starting to get back to close to those16:11highs here of 4.75. So the weekly close16:14I think will be very important. The next16:1624 hours super big on some of these16:18charts. We'll discuss in our weekend16:20special. As we mentioned before, the US16:22dollar has that chance of maybe going16:24towards the flag. The positioning is16:26pretty strong towards the bull end which16:29can create that contrarian view. But um16:32yeah, again closures will be key. here16:34and we've got some alerts set around16:35some of those zones. US oil holding16:38itself pretty well. UK oil, so basically16:40Brent, that's been actually going up a16:43little bit more. So you can see a dull16:45market, not exactly a weak looking Brent16:48market. And it does look like16:49geopolitical tensions are continuing at16:51least at this stage. And we've got16:53crack. So things like Vanic Oil16:55refineries here. It's been going up up16:57up. And we've got a huge discrepancy17:00between diesel price and in general just17:03normal crude oil. Now have a look here17:05at energy versus spy as well that just17:08made a new high. We like to do cross17:10analysis here what the institution style17:12do on the channel and this is telling us17:15again that the energy stocks are17:17performing better than spy. So it's17:19again putting a bit of pressure on the17:20markets. Speaking of putting in more17:22pressure, we've had certain other17:24sectors doing well. Palare, biotech,17:27they were really the talk of the town17:29just 24 hours ago. Had a bit of a17:31pullback to be probably expected after17:33Madna did what it did. If you're not17:35familiar, take a look at this chart.17:37It's the stuff of wonders if you had, I17:39guess, a sneaky call option on it. But17:41[laughter] also a quick reminder that17:43what goes up can come down a bit. It's17:45the typical biotech way. So I think in17:48the pre-market as well just uh out of17:50interest it actually rocketed up I17:53believe to around 195 which is very17:55close to that technical resistance over17:57there. So pre-markets becoming very17:59important as are posts in 2026. When18:03will we go to 24-hour markets18:04completely? I can just imagine 24/7 is18:07probably going to come in only a few18:09years across the board. It's already18:11here in per now let's take a look here18:13at semiconductors. So semiconductors18:15themselves uh rallied dropped they're18:18sitting kind of around the same zone.18:20I'm mostly watching the Cosby here and18:22one of the things we're looking for is18:24do we end up seeing a higher high. So at18:26this stage you know there's no higher18:28high. It's about6% up at the time of18:31this recording and people are starting18:32to draw inverse head and shoulders and18:34stuff. It remains very kangarooy. So18:37basically this market is up down up down18:39up down. The thing is this is where most18:41retail traders are looking. The18:42opportunity really since this crash has18:45actually been in other markets. Remember18:47abundance, plenty of other things going18:49on. Now, we mentioned before gold versus18:52gold stocks. This is gold stock versus18:53gold. And the reason I bring it up is18:56because we're approaching a critical18:58zone here for gold stocks versus gold.19:01And it's something that's been over 1019:03years in the making. Wow. It has been19:06ages. this oscillator, the cheap gold19:08stock, the expensive gold stock, the19:10cheap gold stock, the expensive gold19:12stock. We're at the expensive gold19:13stock, but we're coming off19:16consolidation or as we like to call it19:18here on the channel, a bit of a pit. So,19:20could we be looking at maybe gold stocks19:22starting to perform good enough to maybe19:24go to a 03? It's an interesting19:27observation. This is a very large base19:30structure. And if you know your history,19:31you would know that coming into the19:33global financial crisis, gold stocks19:35went ballistic and they never recovered19:38properly. Take a look at this.19:41Let's now take a look at gold spot. And19:44you'll notice here that gold has been19:46again improving 4532. It's sitting19:49around that first node zone of19:51resistance. Could it get through this19:53level, go to 4,700? It's been certainly19:55improving in recent days. So at the19:58moment it's still making a series of20:00what we call higher highs and higher20:01lows. So it's mean basically the20:03technical analysis. Silver meanwhile was20:05the talk and one of the reasons was of20:07course Shanghai is trading at a higher20:11price. So we're actually seeing the20:12physical uh trading at a big discrepancy20:15here in Shanghai. And this is showing20:17you that there's this under supply going20:19on and a significant demand in the20:22precious metals. So you guys know the20:24paper contracts are very different to20:25the physical. It's been like that for a20:27while and a lot of people always have uh20:30battles about it, but silver coming to20:32life here. The silver dragon has come20:34alive here in the last 24 to 48 hours20:37and it's maybe heading towards 70. So if20:39we go past 70, you know, remember silver20:42has known to be go crazy and stuff, but20:46we're looking at 70, 76, and potentially20:4988 as key critical levels. And we'll20:51break that down once we get the weekly20:53close. Another thing coming out of China20:54has actually been China stocks. They've20:56been improving in recent days. We saw20:58that technical node resistance at 26,00021:01which was a big trade volume on the left21:03hand side here and the markets21:05themselves are trying to put pressure21:08back on that level. Potentially it could21:10close above and if it does then that21:12opens up the next levels of equilibrium.21:14So at this stage the market itself is21:17finding some nice consolidation and21:19we're seeing certain stocks do a little21:21bit better. Now, let's go to Bitcoin21:22because this is the one that probably21:24blows people's minds the most. And the21:26reason, well, it's very quick. And this21:29is the classic thing that happens when21:31you come out of a pit, when you come out21:33of a high coiling period, you get some21:37news, the markets go ballistic, and they21:39push it. So, we got the first daily21:40close, then the next day, bam. And at21:43this stage, could we be going for21:4578,000? What is your target for Bitcoin?21:48Let us know down below. Um, one of the21:50things that I'm noticing with Bitcoin is21:52that people are getting pretty21:55hyperactive and excited about it. Uh,21:57and they're drawing up, of course, cycle21:59low bottoms and those types of things.22:01So, you're getting, it's funny how you22:03can change sentiment so quickly in 26.22:05Uh, so you're getting people drawing22:07these types of things. You're getting22:08people, of course, drawing the bottom of22:10a h havinging cycle low and getting22:12excited about it. But we're not through,22:14you know, really turns on the higher22:16time frames. So, okay. Yes, the daily,22:19possibly even the basic weekly might22:21have improved, but you know, we still22:23need to get through this close here at22:24about 83 that we were at just a few22:26months ago. Still improving signs.22:29Ethereum also doing well and slamming22:31straight into that first resistance as22:33you can see on this chart. Let's have a22:35look now at the updated options levels.22:38And it's probably the most or most22:40important charts for the indices are22:42really we've got the call resistance,22:43which we knew was there from both the22:45S&P and the Q's. And then we have the22:48put supports. And interestingly, both22:49the put support zero DTE and the net22:52expiration ones are sitting at 700 for22:55the Q's, which is about 12 points under22:59or 12 under this current price. And then23:02if we have a look here at the S&P, it's23:04also sitting at around the similar kind23:06of rate, which would be about 7,600. So23:09we're seeing all the resistance,23:11everything. Why is this happening?23:13Probably OPEX to a degree. So, of23:15course, we have big options expiration23:17at the moment. Uh, but at the same time,23:20up until literally 24 hours ago, most of23:22the resistance for calls was here at23:267,800 and the put supports are now23:29sitting at 7,500. So, weird stuff that23:32the calls are actually, well, at least23:34the zero DTR are actually under the23:36current price. [laughter] It's23:38interesting. Interesting. Uh, but yeah,23:407500 and 700 on the Q's zones. will have23:44to be watching. I also put on the23:45anchored VWAP and if you go to the23:47futures market you'll actually when you23:49load it up you'll see it kind of23:51appearing around this area 763623:55or something I think it was last time I23:57checked. So very very close to that23:59first level where sometimes markets find24:02a little bit of resilience. One of the24:04things I'm looking at though over the24:05next 24 to 48 hours will be whether we24:08come down into some of these uh volume24:10profile levels uh particularly that24:137500. You'll see although it isn't the24:15most struck it's a huge zone. So 750024:19lots of puts interesting level for the24:21S&P. Plenty of stuff to observe over the24:24next week guys and to see on the charts.24:27If you enjoyed today's show then please24:28remember to subscribe smash that like24:30button. It's great to have you here if24:31it's your first time here. We bring of24:33course that behavioral side of things to24:35it as well. Remember sentiment surveys24:37are one part of the puzzle. Big volume24:39flow is another part. And I think24:41actually what we saw this week was the24:43real signs of bonds starting to get put24:46under pressure. And for whatever reason,24:48Anthropic and Open AAI and all these24:51other uh companies, they're all starting24:53to ramp as well. Remember, we did just24:55have a whole bunch of 100red-year bonds24:58getting issued this year. I think we24:59need to talk about that again as well on25:00the weekend video. Guys, I'm excited to25:02bring it all to you. I hope you have a25:04wonderful day. Bye for now.
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