Transcript of Did The US TREASURY Just FREAK OUT...
FX Evolution - Trading Academy
0:00Wow, that was another crazy 24 hours.0:03And one of the reasons was because the0:05US Treasuries got involved in markets0:07once again right at the opportune time.0:11Yes, guys, it looks like we've just0:13witnessed a huge move in markets that is0:16forcing the dollar down, gold up, and0:20even big moves in crypto. But that0:22wasn't just the only places we saw some0:24huge trades. Today, we uncover what just0:27happened to stocks, commodities, and0:29cryptos in one of the biggest days that0:31we've seen in quite some time.0:37Well, welcome back. It's great to have0:38you here. Today, we need to talk about0:40some huge things because we saw0:42sell-offs in semiconductors and hardware0:44and huge rallies in other sectors0:47including biotech and healthcare. Is0:49this something new or is it something0:51that Wall Street's been doing for quite0:53some time? Hello, my name's Thomas. I've0:55been in markets for over 17 years and on0:57this channel we do things a little bit0:58differently. We look at the price1:00action, the data, and the flows to1:02really understand how the institutions1:04think and more importantly how you are1:07possibly being taken advantage of when1:09it comes to human psychology. It's all1:11about behavioral finance in 2026 and1:14we'll be discussing that today. Let's1:16now start though with Moderna. It was up1:18over 165%1:20as stories came out from the Wall Street1:22Journal and other places describing this1:24as the first successful late-stage1:26personalized Moderna cancer therapy1:29trial. Guys, just goes to show when it1:31comes to biotech, things can move in big1:34ways. And while we've seen Moderna over1:35the last years suffer, it has been1:39absolutely pumping. That's one of those1:40ones that you remember, the day Moderna1:42did over 160% in one session. Remember,1:46yes, it's not the same in a1:47semiconductor type of market cap, but1:49just goes to show there's abundance1:51everywhere in these markets. Speaking of1:53abundance, the Treasury started to freak1:55out, guys. The US Treasury just made a1:57pretty significant move in the bond1:59market. It plans to at least double2:01liquidity support buybacks for2:03longer-dated Treasuries, lifting the2:06maximum from 2 billion to 4 billion2:09dollars. Now, it wasn't really so much2:11the overall size, but what happened was2:14we saw yields on the long term get2:16crushed. So, both the US 10-year, 10,2:1920, and 30-year, they all fell down, and2:22it was just at that opportune moment2:25where you saw US 30 starting to rise up.2:27Remember, the market often controls2:30what's really going to happen when it2:31comes to long-dated yields. But, then we2:34saw Treasury start to fall off, and bam,2:37they came in, the Plunge Protection2:39Team, to support a super critical level.2:42Remember, it's the fear of the unknown2:43that really sends markets into2:45shockwaves, and this is why, at least I2:47believe, and I'm sure you do as well,2:49they had to protect this zone. Is it2:51enough, though? Or what does history2:53actually tell us about this? We'll be2:55looking at this in more detail over this2:58coming week. So, if you're interested in3:00that type of stuff, make sure to3:01subscribe and smash the like button, as3:03we will be actually talking about how3:05big a deal this is moving forward. Now,3:08with Treasuries doing that, you're going3:09to say, "Well, okay, what does this mean3:11for everything else?" Well, it sent3:13bigger movements into many other asset3:16classes. We've been talking about3:18something very sneaky with the US dollar3:19for a while now,3:21and that has been positioning. Yeah,3:23most people have actually been going3:24bullish, and it did look the other day3:26like it was going pretty strongly from3:29the price action side, but then3:31something changed. And just at that3:33point where we saw something change, we3:35also found out the positioning levels.3:37And guess what? Everyone was becoming a3:40dollar bull. Now, though, the last 243:43hours, dollar fell off, and if it does3:45lose certain critical levels we'll look3:47at later on today's video, we could be3:49looking at further macro decline in the3:52US dollar as remember supporting these3:54Treasuries and supporting everything3:56that's going on right now could have3:57massive ramifications for metals and for4:01of course the US dollar in general. This4:03chart here from duality research over on4:05X I think really probably positions it4:07best for us which is showing here that4:09asset managers and institutional4:10investors were actually super bullish.4:13So remember if markets start to turn4:14really negative on the dollar, well it's4:16kind of like a reverse squeeze. So it's4:18going to be really really important to4:20be watching this over the next coming4:21weeks. Now we mentioned that gold and4:23Bitcoin were doing pretty well. Well4:25let's first take a look at gold and I4:27guess silver. We've got silver coming up4:29later but gold here first. It actually4:31slammed straight into the first volume4:33node and as soon as we saw that US4:35Treasury news come out gold actually4:37rallied about 3% then ended up at about4:404 and 1/2% and this is because people4:43are now starting to get concerned about4:45the US dollar longer term. Now don't get4:48me wrong. If you look at markets you4:50should never really be concerned about4:52the US dollar in comparison to some of4:54the other fiat currencies out there but4:56at the same time it does come into4:58question, you know, what really is going5:00on. Remember just a week or two ago we5:02got the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Korea5:05and of course we also saw the US5:07government getting involved in5:10stabilizing everything because of course5:12we know the carry trade from Japan is5:14going to become very important moving5:16forward. There's so many working parts5:18here in the bonds and it's the first5:19time5:20that we've really seen significant5:22weakness in bonds for I would say like5:24at least six to maybe even 12 months.5:27It's been a long time since we've really5:28seen it. Maybe it was the beginning of5:30tariffs when we last saw bonds properly5:32freak out. You'll note later on that5:34there were a few correlation levels that5:36actually had to be supported. The market5:38really does get it right when it comes5:40down to these levels. Either way with5:41gold we'll go into this in more detail5:43soon but if we have been seeing a decent5:46side of CTAs. that is commodity trade5:48advisors, starting to pack in two, of5:51course, the overall gold price. And5:53that's a good sign. It helps support the5:56dark pool activity and the other things5:57that we've seen in price more recently.6:00Let's now move over to Bitcoin. Well,6:01Bitcoin was another one with stories in6:03the news today because, of course, we6:05saw a huge change in rhetoric when it6:08comes to any crypto asset. Basically,6:10Bitcoin climbed past $68,000,6:13gaining over almost 7% to 8% in a6:16session, and this is the strongest6:17session since March. And the move6:20followed President Trump's meeting with6:22crypto industry leaders at the White6:24House, where regulation and legislation6:27were now major topics. The rally also6:30spread into alts, when you'll see later6:32when we look at Ethereum, it went even6:33more bonkers. It was like up like almost6:3520% on the session. So, why is this6:37important? Well, it goes back to6:39technical analysis as well. We've seen6:41recently the price action6:43has been basically sideways. And this is6:46the first sign on the higher time frames6:49of a potential change of trend for6:51Bitcoin. It also brings up the question,6:53could we be going towards the next high6:56volume node, that is the last period of6:59decent transactions. Remember, around7:01this point here, what did we have? The7:03number one largest transaction on one of7:06the major exchange-traded funds. So,7:09yeah, very important point here to be7:11watching moving forward here for7:12Bitcoin. Let's talk now about the broad7:15market. Yes, we've seen some7:18risk-on kind of movements go through.7:20Yes, we've seen a lot of rotation and7:22abundance in the sectors, but which year7:24is matching the most to the S&P 500 so7:27far? Blue over on X put together this7:30one, and I think it's pretty cool.7:32Basically, it shows us that 19787:34Remember what happened in 1970s, guys?7:36Oh, stagflation.7:38This was a period where we actually saw7:41a very similar market. And if it is to7:43come true, that is it's of course only7:45one data point, then we could still be7:48in for extreme volatility ahead of the7:51November election. Now, of course, you7:53don't know that guys. It's just what the7:54seasonality is kind of show. And if you7:57know anything about midterm years, they7:58often do become more volatile in the8:01September and October periods,8:03particularly October just before the8:05election itself tends to be that period8:07you need to be most careful on. Now,8:09let's have a look at semiconductors.8:11KOSPI's actually up at the time of this8:12recording, doing pretty well. But8:15semiconductor bear spreads, we actually8:16saw bear positioning going to volume8:18leaders come in over the last 24 hours.8:22And you'll note here that the fourth8:23largest transaction to go through SOXS8:25happened, and then the markets, well, of8:28course, they fell cuz this is a bear8:30position. Now, does that mean that it's8:32going to be sustained? We'll look at the8:34chart later, but I'm not so sure about8:36that yet. Remember what happened to8:38semiconductors and hardware8:40is symptomatic of what we call a8:41blow-off top. And that usually means we8:43go into more of a kangaroo style market8:46with huge increases and huge declines.8:49And that should become quite difficult8:50to trade unless you're incredibly8:52disciplined. And discipline is the key8:54when it comes to those markets.8:56Financials, still looking at these, just8:58never forget that when big transactions8:59come through, we need to be paying9:01attention. And I thought this one, I had9:03to bring it up. Yes, it's proposed,9:04okay? But I just thought this is wild9:07shared from Eric over on XT as you can9:10see, and mayhem for markets. And9:12[laughter] basically, there's an ETF for9:15everything. We saw picks and shovels9:17come through just a few weeks ago, and9:19then of course, hardware dropped off.9:21But now we've got potentially,9:23yes, you guessed it, the sports gambling9:25world and ETFs in general melding9:28together. We're already seeing in 20269:31the most amount of exchange-traded funds9:32coming on the market. There are more9:34exchange-traded funds than single stocks9:37now in the US. It's a wild world, guys.9:39And what it's creating is a concentrated9:41market, but also the problem is the9:43wording. People think ETF means safe.9:46ETF is just an exchange-traded fund.9:48Remember, you've got [laughter] to go9:49and check what's actually underneath the9:51hood. Oh, I think 2026 is getting pretty9:54wild. What do you think down below,9:56guys? Is that just Is that insane or is9:58that9:59just the sign of the times? The blurring10:01of all markets coming together. Bond10:04funds buy more corporate bonds and trim10:07Treasuries. Now, of course, this was one10:09of the big problems that we saw ahead of10:11this one. Here from Hedgeye Markets and10:14Morningstar and of course Bloomberg. And10:17you can see here that government10:18Treasuries, the allocation was going10:20down. The support for the government10:22Treasuries, they needed to do something.10:24And just at the final moment, they've10:26basically said, "Oh, wait. Well, we'll10:28support it. Don't worry about that." And10:30it's not again the money amount. It's10:31the fact that they're doing it. And now10:33the market's saying, "Oh, well, we know10:34you're your pain point." So, guess what?10:36The market might pressure that a few10:38times to get real stimulus. You know,10:40this is what happens. It's a song and10:42dance. And it kind of reminds me of10:44every other central bank intervention in10:46general over time.10:48Uh sometimes it works really, really10:49well and it goes off in the opposite10:50direction. Sometimes it gets pressured a10:52little bit. And I think the market's10:54pretty well aware now of the painful10:56level. Upcoming earnings results.10:59Remember, earnings watch out. We've got11:01here a good report because of course11:03over the next uh 24 hours, we're going11:06to see Walmart. And that's going to tell11:07us a little bit about the K-shaped11:09economy and who's spending and who11:10isn't. So, will this market continue on?11:13Well, for now, it's all about sector11:15rotation. This chart here from Carson11:17Research and Ryan Detrick over at NX11:19again shows the average ones. If you11:21want to know more about it, we cover it11:23in most of our previous videos.11:25Guys, just quick reminder, if you're11:26interested in finding out more about11:28markets, make sure to sign up for our11:29newsletter and other things down below.11:32It's great to have you on board. Now,11:33let's talk about the transportation11:36average. I just wanted to bring this one11:37up. A few people forget this. The11:39biggest problem is probably11:40concentration of certain stocks cuz of11:43course we've seen11:45Avis took a big hold of this a little11:46while ago, but we've had weakness here11:49in transportations. That's another sign11:51that we need to be watching all the11:53parts of the economy. We often look at11:54railroads. Here on the channel we look11:57at the you know the overall11:58transportation throughout the US. The12:00These are the ground level things. Yes,12:01okay, Wall Street buys the big data, but12:03still interesting to check it out. Let's12:06have a look here at why the plunge12:07protection team had to come in. Look at12:09LQD, corporate bonds right at those12:12supports. Boom.12:13Finds a little bit of support right12:15around that level. Treasuries. Well, of12:17course, levels not seen since 2004. Oh,12:20well, we've got to support them, guys.12:22We quickly quickly quickly and they try12:24to push the market up. And what you'll12:25note is that although it did rally,12:27we've still got resistance points. So,12:30you know, yes, everyone's talking about12:31it, but it's still to be determined12:33whether it's going to be enough to12:35actually stop the markets from declining12:37at this stage. US yields, look at this.12:4030-year was up. 30-year got smashed back12:42down. US 10-year, one of the most12:44important yields, that was actually12:46trying to get to new highs and of course12:49got turned around at the last moment.12:51And all of this is fed into the dollar.12:53And I think the dollar is probably the12:55big discussion point moving forward.12:56Particularly certain lower lows moving12:59forward because if we go through some of13:01these like 9750,13:03then we could be seeing this as a13:05monstrous flag. And remember, if that is13:09true, then we've got that big pole and13:11we'll take a look at that when we do our13:12special on treasuries soon because yeah,13:15that is that is a wild chart. US oil, it13:17dropped down a little bit off everything13:19else that's been going on, but in13:21general it's been all about of course13:23diesel. And we've seen this go through13:25many many many times. Crack has been13:28moving. I do I love the ETF's name13:30there. And of course energy stocks in13:32general have made, you know, all-time13:34highs. So, again, flows, flows, flows,13:37guys. And we've been witnessing metals13:40flows recently, about 3-4 weeks of that13:42now. Gold, one of the best performers.13:44Guess what though? Something else13:46happened over the last 24 hours and it13:48came back, which was biotech. Moderna13:51Moderna just ignited a huge amount of13:53transactional volume into so many13:56sectors that it already been doing and13:58we've been tracking and looking at them14:00and observing them for 2 months. So,14:03remember when the big guys get in, they14:05often sit in for a little while and have14:07a look here at the dull market of health14:09care. I was particularly happy with this14:11one just because I thought, "Oh, I love14:13to see a dull market. It's going to face14:14rip someone." And then, bam. As we say14:17on the channel, you know, don't try to14:18go against dull markets, guys. That's14:20going to be a little bit aggressive.14:21Look at that. I had to give you the14:22chart twice. Semiconductors still at14:25resistance. Critical level up overnight14:27trade. Basically, the KOSPI is coming14:30back a little bit here and [snorts]14:32effectively, we're seeing a whipsawing14:34action. Remember, all eyes are on this,14:36which makes it a lot more difficult14:38because you've got, you know, pretty14:40much critical levels and a lot of traps14:43to be done to retail traders at that14:44point. With gold, it hit the first major14:47volume node, which sits around here, at14:49around that 40 4,530 that we've been14:52talking about. Could we be getting to a14:544750 4800 soon? Well, gold has looked14:58pretty good in recent times, but I also15:00like the fact that silver managed to get15:03through this kind of resistance level as15:05well, going maybe towards the 70. Can we15:08get there? New high, pretty cool for15:10silver. And of course, the markets are15:13in this stage in a technical higher15:15highs and higher lows. So, they've been15:17holding up and that's why we say a pit15:19is not necessarily a bad thing for15:21markets. It's just a sleeping. Like it's15:24just the market going and having a15:25little bit of a rest before maybe the15:27next move. What about Chinese stocks?15:29They've also started to pick up a little15:30bit here last two sessions slightly15:32stronger than before.15:34And the market, you know, trying to15:36rally into these previous highs. So15:39again, markets rotating around the15:40world. When it comes to the US market,15:43the Qs and the S&P, here are the major15:45options levels for the days, guys. We've15:48got put support around 710 for the Qs.15:50Call resistance, of course, majorly at15:52730. We get through 730, we could be15:55looking at positive gamma. And it's kind15:57of similar for the S&P as well. It's16:00still struggling with that 780016:02psychological level. And the pullbacks16:05weren't as extreme as I'd expect. You16:07know, I I was looking at 763016:10as a possible level of you know, an16:13anchored VWAP and maybe a little bit16:14more of a considered pullback. But at16:16the moment, it really hasn't been about16:18the indices. It's been about the16:20sectors, the rotation, the rotation, the16:22rotation. Now let's have a look at16:24crypto. Whoa, look at Ethereum go. Check16:26that out. That's a big candle. When16:28something pits for a while and16:30especially when it's a little bit dull,16:31it tends to come out pretty strong. And16:34you can see here Ethereum slammed16:35straight into that supply zone16:37previously. For Bitcoin, well, it was16:40more of the same except that it didn't16:42move as much percentage-wise. Levels16:44that we're looking at the future, little16:46supplies, you know, the possibility of16:4873. Obviously, it's going to be based on16:51news, probably in this case. And then16:5377. Could we go to those levels? Who16:55knows? The main thing is that we got16:58through at this stage a bit of a pit.17:01That was a low high, lower low. We've17:03got a higher high now. Slight17:06improvement. And as you'll see when I17:08get the ETF volumes, I've actually17:10shared one of these over on X if you17:12want to follow. You'll see that the17:13actual flows were positive the last two17:15days pretty big time, too. And I suspect17:18that we might be finding extra positive17:20flows over the last 24 hours. Everything17:23was up across the board. Alt's were as17:25well. Um, you know, this is a positive17:27on the technical side. Uh, the question17:29is, can the stories keep driving home17:32the movements? But it's like Ethereum is17:34interestingly at resistance or supply,17:36and Bitcoin didn't quite get to those17:38levels just yet. Guys, if you enjoyed17:40today's video, then please remember to17:41subscribe, smash that like button, and17:42I'll see you in the next video. Thanks17:44so much waiting up for this one. I know17:46it was a little bit later. We'll hope to17:48get tomorrow's one even sooner out.17:50Thanks, guys. Bye for now.
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