Transcript of Wall Street Is Walking Into A Trap…
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0:00OpenAI CEO Sam Altman just canceled the0:02company's 2026 IPO plans as he,0:06Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, and Elon0:09Musk are now simultaneously calling for0:11the AI industry to slow down0:13development. The Fed will decide whether0:15to raise interest rates on Wednesday,0:18and a hike is looking pretty likely with0:19the Fed Watch tool now showing more than0:22an 86% chance of an increase. And Saudi0:25Arabia just shut down one of its most0:26important crude oil pipelines,0:28potentially disrupting roughly 4% of oil0:31supply if it remains closed. Today, we0:34cover why stocks are rising, what to0:36know, and where the action is right now.0:43Elon Musk, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei,0:46and Sam Altman have all called for0:48reducing the speed of AI model0:50development. Sam Altman also said that0:52OpenAI will not go public this year as0:55it would be an ill-advised time due to0:57everything happening around AI safety.0:59This pushes the highly anticipated1:01OpenAI IPO out to at least 2027. It's1:05strange that these three CEOs would come1:07out and say this at the same exact time,1:10and while we don't know their exact1:11motive, some are suggesting that they1:14are bleeding money and using this as an1:16opportunity to cut costs. These calls1:18for potential slowdowns could put1:20pressure on AI stocks very soon, and1:23that could pressure the overall market.1:25But despite these concerns around the1:27slowing AI development, the AI boom is1:29driving historic earnings growth. The1:31S&P 500 profits are expected to rise 32%1:35in 2026 with 86% of companies beating1:38expectations this quarter, the highest1:41rate since 2021.1:43Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West1:45crude oil pipeline following multiple1:47reported attacks over the past few1:49weeks. This pipeline has capacity to1:52transport up to 7 million barrels per1:54day, and Saudi Arabia has recently been1:56using it to move roughly 4 million1:58barrels per day. If it remains closed,2:01it could disrupt around 4% of global oil2:04supply. And at the same time, the2:06Iran-aligned Houthis reached Perim2:08Island on Friday, positioning them2:10perfectly in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.2:13That's especially important because2:14Saudi Arabia has been heavily relying on2:17Red Sea ports to bypass the disruptions2:20in the Strait of Hormuz, meaning now two2:23major oil shipping routes are facing2:25pressure. And two vessels were struck in2:27the Strait of Hormuz this weekend by2:29unidentified projectiles. Iran claimed2:31one of its commercial vessels was2:33struck, killing one person and wounding2:35four crew members, and no official2:38information has been released2:39identifying who was responsible for2:41either incident, and the attacks have2:43not been confirmed to be connected.2:46China is also attempting to rebuild its2:48oil reserves. Its crude oil imports rose2:51to 37.9 million tons in August, their2:54second straight monthly increase. Though2:56imports still remain 23% lower2:58year-over-year and 32% below this year's3:01peak.3:03>> Roughly $7 million in T-bills are3:05currently outstanding right now with3:07about $6.1 trillion3:09set to mature within the next year.3:12Including other Treasury maturities3:13around $7.5 trillion in marketable US3:17government debt is set to mature in3:192026, followed by another $4 trillion in3:222027, and $3.5 trillion in 2028. This3:26creates a massive refinancing wave with3:29a 75 basis point Fed hike potentially3:31adding roughly $50 billion3:34annually to T-bill interest costs. And3:37net interest, Social Security, Medicare,3:40health care spending, and veterans3:41benefits now consume 98.4%3:45of total federal receipts, near a record3:47high. That share has surged 283:49percentage points since 2022 and is just3:52below the 2020 pandemic peak of roughly3:5599%.3:56For comparison, during the 20083:58financial crisis, these expenditures4:00didn't even exceed 90%.4:03And Trump responded to the growing4:04expectations for a rate hike this week4:07saying he doesn't know if rates will4:08increase, but arguing that the US should4:10have the lowest interest rates in the4:12world regardless of what the Federal4:14Reserve decides.4:16>> The CPI data on Friday did show that4:19inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and it4:22rose 0.4%4:24for the month. That's the biggest4:25monthly increase since May. Following4:28the CPI data release, the Fed Watch tool4:30is now showing an over 86% chance of a4:33rate hike this week and four rate hikes4:36are being priced in over the next 124:38months. Almost all of the Fed trackers4:41that were not expecting a September hike4:43changed their call following Friday's4:46inflation report. Looking closer at this4:48week's schedule, the event of the week4:51is on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. Eastern4:54time. That is when we're going to get4:56the highly awaited interest rate4:58decision. 30 minutes after that is when5:01Fed chair Kevin Warsh will give his5:03press conference. So, get ready for5:05Wednesday. It's going to be a big day.5:07There are also a couple other important5:09events throughout this week, but5:10honestly, there's nothing too crazy. You5:13can see them all on the schedule on the5:14screen. We can see that historically5:17speaking though, there has been a little5:18bit of a pattern repeating itself with5:21Fed chair Warsh's interest rate5:23decisions. The market has tried to move5:26higher as Warsh speaks, but both times5:29the market has inevitably ended 1%5:32lower.5:33Something that is a positive though is5:35that historically the first hike isn't5:37necessarily bad for stocks, but the size5:40of the increase is what really appears5:42to matter the most. When the Fed starts5:44with a 0.25% hike, stocks typically see5:47some weakness, but have never been lower5:491 year later. But when the Fed starts5:52with a 50 basis point hike, however, the5:54historical results become a lot more5:56unpredictable. But we can't move forward5:59without talking about the giveaway that6:01is going to be ending this Tuesday at6:031:00 p.m. Eastern time. Check out the6:05link down in the description below to6:07join the Discord server for free to get6:09in on this giveaway. Just check out the6:11giveaways channel after you get into the6:13server. But first place gets an awesome6:15standing desk along with a great chair6:17as well. Second place gets a 45-in6:20curved monitor, and third place gets a6:22Logitech keyboard and mouse, and all6:24three also get the intro to options and6:27advanced options courses to put you on6:29the right path for learning options as a6:31trader. So, make sure you check out that6:33link and get entered in. But let's go6:35ahead and look at the overall market6:37because the SPY is 1.95%6:39off of highs, and we started to see a6:41bit of a structural shift at the end of6:44last week. We can see that throughout6:46last week, the market was downtrending6:48pretty hard and following a very6:50consistent trend. But at the end of the6:52week, we actually saw this trend start6:54to break, and SPY is now attempting to6:56form uh some bullish structure here. Um6:58something that I'm watching for for this7:00week is for a potential base to form7:02around the 760 support. We can see7:05multiple bounces around 760 over the7:07past few trading days, so that will be7:09highly on the radar. If the SPY breaks7:11underneath that, I will be looking for7:13the low of last week to test around7:15756.50, and then ultimately for 755 and7:19752 just under that range. But if the7:22SPY continues this bullish price action7:25like it had Friday, watch for 768, 770,7:29772, and then of course, the high of the7:31past couple of weeks around 774 on the7:34radar. There are a lot of resistances7:36coming up as SPY has been chopping7:38around in a major zone over the past7:40couple of weeks. So, watch out for some7:42of these resistances, but it was nice to7:44see that bullish structure start to form7:47at the end of last week.7:48>> It's an exciting time to be a trader,7:50and this week is a big one. So, get7:52ready for some exciting moves ahead.7:55Friday will also be a triple witching7:58day with more than $2 trillion8:00in delta notional options set to expire.8:03Since 2012, the S&P 500 has finished8:06lower on the triple witching day in 128:09of 14 years, making it a historically8:12weak event for the market. We can see8:14that the average returns are only8:16slightly negative, and the market8:18finishes positive only 42.3% of the time8:21on event days. So, it's not like the8:23market completely crashes on days like8:25triple witching days or explodes higher.8:28Each one's unique, but the returns are8:30slightly weaker than what would be8:32expected on average. Looking at the8:35earnings calendar for the week, it's8:37pretty clear. So, Tom, let's get into8:39the good stuff, which are some setups8:40and predictions. A stock close on my8:43radar is AeroVironment, ticker symbol8:46AVAV.8:48This is an American defense technology8:50company that designs and manufactures8:52autonomous systems, counter UAS systems,8:55and space systems. The stock has been8:57all over the place over the past year9:00especially. We can see right now what9:02it's trading at $146 per share with9:05recent highs all the way up to that like9:07$4189:09area. I like how the stock is holding9:11support around this 140 zone, and I like9:15the industry that it's in. Of course,9:17the US has a lot going on in the Middle9:20East right now, and with a I guess you9:22could say growth stock like this one9:25that is down considerably in a9:27relatively short period period of time9:29and that's holding support, I think it9:31can offer good risk reward playing it to9:34the upside over the coming weeks and9:36months. I do think it would be a red9:38flag though, especially if the stock9:41continued this downtrend and broke9:43through 135.9:45>> Yeah, that would be concerning. That9:47area of support is huge on AVAV, but the9:50past couple of times that it's bounced9:52off of this support, it's popped up in a9:53pretty good way. You know, the past9:55couple times it's gotten to at least9:5740%. So, that's a pretty big move and9:59this stock is a big mover. I'll be10:01watching it closely. And with my first10:03play, I'm actually looking at another10:05big mover in the short term. This is10:07Moderna. Moderna's been consolidating10:09over the past couple of months and you10:11know, we did have a big money trade come10:13out on August 12th with this setup. Now,10:15some people are still holding this, but10:17I'm I'm really looking at the overall10:19setup here with Moderna because whenever10:22they popped up, they ended up popping10:24off of news of a positive trial with10:27their cancer vaccine. And having10:29positive news of a cancer vaccine, of10:31course, is a big deal for a company like10:34this and it shot up 176%10:37in just one trading day alone. But since10:40that day, it's done nothing but10:41consolidate. And something that I'm10:43looking for is for it to start to move10:45out of this consolidation zone. We can10:47see the way in which it's been10:49consolidating and it's been holding10:50within a pretty steady range. If we see10:53it start to break to the upside up10:55through that downtrend that we're seeing10:57on the daily chart, I think that we10:58could see a much larger move. And11:00something that I really like heading11:01into the beginning of this week is that11:03Moderna really consolidated at 150 at11:06the end of the week. It acted as clear11:09overhead resistance and Moderna failed11:10to break out there. So, if we can break11:13that clear resistance level and break11:15the downtrend, I think Moderna could be11:16a stock that comes back into play this11:18week or even just soon if you keep it on11:21the radar.11:22>> Very nice and like you pointed out, it11:23has some strong recent news as well.11:26I'll keep it close on watch. Another11:28stock that's still close on the radar is11:30XLE. I don't know how you can't not be11:32watching this ETF in the short term as11:35there is a major energy supply11:37disruption happening globally right now.11:40It appears that the US Iran war is not11:44um11:45uh de-escalating. It almost seems like11:46it's getting worse. Uh for that reason,11:49I think energy companies will continue11:51to benefit until the war de-escalates.11:55XLE has broad expro uh broad exposure,11:57which I think benefits it. But also, if11:59you want to get more specific with your12:01exposure, you can look at UGA, which uh12:04tracks gas prices, or ticker symbol12:06CRAK, which specifically tracks the12:09companies that are refining the oil into12:13products. So, check these out as well.12:15They're doing pretty well.12:18>> Yeah, I know that they might not have12:19risen every single day last week, but a12:21lot of these stocks are still very close12:23to highs, and they've been moving a lot12:25in the short term. I'll be watching them12:26for a continued push higher, especially12:29as the Middle East situation just seems12:31to be getting worse. Uh but with my next12:33setup, I'm looking at Google to the12:34upside as well. Uh with Google in the12:37short term, we can see on the daily12:38chart that it's starting to bounce off12:40of a clear zone of support where it's12:41bounced multiple times, right around12:43$330 or so. Now, again, this is more of12:46a range. It's not perfect. Sometimes the12:49stock has extended under there, like12:51whenever they gap down with earnings,12:52but it immediately got back through. So,12:54I really like this $330 support range,12:57and I think it gives us a good12:58risk-reward ratio to the upside here.13:01And also, at the same time, if we go to13:02like an hourly chart of Google, you can13:04see that over the past few weeks, it's13:06also been down-trending. And we saw on13:09Friday the spy start to break out of its13:11shorter-term downtrend and bounce back13:14to the upside. And if we continue to see13:16good pressure to the upside this week13:18with the market, I think that Google13:20could be a stock that starts to rise,13:21especially early in the week before the13:23CPI reading. So, watch this downtrend on13:26Google. If we see it break the high of13:28day from Friday around 343, I think13:30there could be a great opportunity in13:32looking for a scalp move here. Now, this13:34is purely a technical play. I'm not13:36necessarily looking for any Google13:38specific news here, but I like the setup13:40and if we do start to see the market13:42recover back, I think Google could be a13:44good stock for a recovery in this case,13:47especially given their capabilities with13:49AI and just being one of the leading13:51stocks in the overall market and the13:53world.13:54>> Very nice. Now, let's also jump right13:55into today's momentum plays with the13:58first one we have Corsair Gaming, ticker14:01symbol CRSR, to the upside.14:03>> Corsair actually had a great day on14:05Friday. If it breaks out above $13.60,14:08continue watching it to the upside.14:10>> With the next one we have Penn14:11Entertainment, ticker symbol PENN, also14:14to the upside.14:16>> Yeah, Penn had a good recovery as well.14:17If it breaks out above $17.90,14:20watch for a move higher with Penn, too.14:22>> And then with the last one we have14:24Micron, ticker symbol MU, to the14:26downside.14:27>> Yeah, Micron sold off pretty hard14:29Friday. If it breaks down under $970,14:32which is a good double bottom from last14:34week, watch for a downside continuation14:36play.14:37>> All right, so we have these three stocks14:39on the radar for potential continuations14:41if and only if they break through the14:43levels listed. These stocks are14:45volatile, so always protect yourself.14:47Use stop losses. Know why you enter any14:49trade that you get into and focus on14:51making smart, disciplined trading14:53decisions above all else. And let's also14:56jump right into today's pretty crazy $2214:59million15:00big money trade. Today we are looking at15:03ticker symbol AMR. The trader here15:06traded the 210 strike call options that15:09expire on February 19th of 2027. This15:13company is Alpha Metallurgical Resources15:16and it's a Tennessee-based coal producer15:18that extracts, processes, and sells15:21premium metallurgical coal from mining15:24complexes across Virginia and West15:26Virginia. Unlike companies that15:28primarily burn thermal coal for15:30electricity, AMR focuses heavily on15:33high-grade coking coal, which serves as15:35an essential raw material for blast15:38furnace steel manufacturing. Very15:41interesting trade. Um their revenue and15:43price action is heavily tied to global15:46industrial demand, export port capacity,15:49and worldwide steel production cycles.15:52The stock has done pretty well recently,15:55though it has pulled back over the past15:58week. These call options are right at16:00the money, and they have a lot of time16:02to them.16:03It's a massive trade as well. I'd be16:06very interested in even looking deeper16:09into this thesis to see why the trader16:11might be putting this on. Uh the stock16:13has been a bit weak over the past few16:16years though, and it's a very16:18interesting trade.16:20>> Yeah, the stock is pretty far off of its16:22recent highs in 2024 whenever it got all16:25the way up to around $450 or so, and it16:28has pulled back very hard. But,16:30something that's happening with AMR is16:32after it's pulled back, it's now16:35starting to consolidate out over here at16:37the bottom. And there's a clear low on16:39the daily chart around 104, and I don't16:42really see the stock getting back to16:44that recent low at all, if even the16:45recent low of 140. But, something that16:48I'm watching for is as it pulls back16:50without throughout this downtrend in the16:52immediate short term over the past few16:54weeks, I am going to be watching for it16:56to potentially hold this $200 support16:58zone and then have a bounce there. And I17:01think that if we do see a bounce off of17:03that $200 area, it could be a great17:05opportunity to maybe even enter into AMR17:08right there if you're not already in, or17:11a great area to just watch for a17:13potential stop. Because if AMR continues17:15to fall to the downside of very far17:18under 200. I think that that would be17:20pretty concerning and it would be hard17:22to hold this play out into February of17:25next year, you know, given the given the17:28time. I know it seems like that that's a17:29lot of time, but 5 months can go by17:31pretty quickly whenever you zoom out on17:33a daily chart, but overall this is very17:36interesting because17:38it's also an entry pretty close to17:39resistance and what I would think here17:41is that the big money trader is looking17:43for a bounce off of 200 and then an17:45eventual break of that $240 resistance17:48zone. Yeah, let's keep it close on the17:50radar. I do like the recent17:52strengthening that this stock has had.17:55It does have some pretty strong17:56resistance overhead as well. So, let's17:59keep it close on the radar. It's a18:00pretty big trade. If you're new to the18:02channel though, welcome and consider18:04obliterating that subscribe button. For18:06every single trading day we post brand18:08new videos just like this one showcasing18:11crazy multi-million dollar trades,18:13stocks to keep on your radar, spy levels18:15and analysis, the most important news,18:17upcoming events, important information18:20to know, past stats and so much more. If18:22you subscribe, you'll get our videos18:24recommended to you more often, so18:26definitely consider doing that. And if18:28you're into short-term trading, check18:29out that first link in the description18:31and comments down below to get in on the18:33Stocked Up Trading Floor. This gives you18:35full access to our army of custom18:36trading bots, weekly live events, you18:38can chat with Tom and myself all day18:40long, access basically all the tools you18:42can need for short-term trading, and all18:44the new software that we're adding as18:46well. You can save a nice amount with18:48that link in the comments and18:50description down below, so check that18:52out as well. And let's also give a giant18:55shout-out to today's member of the day,18:58Cornish in the Stocked Up Discord, who19:00had some great gains on his small19:03account 1-month change, roughly 670%.19:06So, huge shout-out to you, Cornish. Keep19:08up the great work going forward, and19:10this is awesome to see. Thank you all so19:13much for watching and let's crush it in19:15the market this week.
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