Transcript of Tomorrow Will Be The Biggest Day Of The Week
StockedUp
0:00Treasury yields are surging today. Oil0:02is back above $100 after the Houthis0:04sees a key port city in Yemen. And0:07tomorrow is the big day. CPI inflation0:10data will be released tomorrow morning,0:12which is critical in determining what0:14might happen next. Today we cover why0:16stocks are falling, what to know, and0:19where the action is right now.0:25United States producer price inflation0:27came in hotter than expected today with0:29it rising to 5.4%0:32higher than the expectation of 5.3%.0:35And the European Central Bank also0:37raised rates another 25 basis points0:39this morning, its second hike this year,0:42and markets are now pricing in a 90%0:44chance of a third hike before the year0:47ends. Both of these things made the0:49market drop. But the most important0:52thing is that the Fed watch tool started0:54to go towards a hike. There's now a0:5673.4% chance of a rate hike at the1:00September 16th meeting just next week.1:03Tomorrow will be the biggest day of the1:04week though because US CPI inflation1:07data will be released 1 hour before the1:10market opens, heavily influencing the1:12path of US rate hikes. This data will1:15release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time,1:17followed by Michigan consumer sentiment1:19data at 10 a.m. Eastern. But US oil1:22prices also surged above $100 a barrel1:26for the first time since May 21st. Oil1:29is now up roughly 50% since July and is1:33on track for it for its eighth straight1:35green day, its longest streak in more1:38than three years. Oil is very important1:40when looking at inflation data because1:42when oil rises, CPI inflation data also1:46tends to rise as we saw earlier this1:49year. A higher reading on tomorrow's1:51data can send shock waves through the1:53market. And diesel is now only 3 cents1:56off from hitting $6 with Gas Buddy data1:59now showing that five gas stations in2:02California are now selling diesel at2:04$9.99 a gallon, the highest price their2:08hardware can show. And one of the main2:10reasons oil moves so high today is2:12because the Iran aligned Houthis sees2:15the port city of Mocha in Yemen today,2:18pushing their forces closer towards the2:21coast and Yemen straight. Yemen's Bob2:24Elmande Strait is one of the most2:26important shipping routes at the moment2:28as Saudi Arabia has been heavily relying2:30on it to export oil bypassing the delays2:34and disruptions in the straight of2:35Hormuz. So, as the Houthis advance more2:38towards that route, the risk to shipping2:40may grow to an all-time high. And we2:43never know what the Houthis might end up2:45doing as they get closer. But Saudi2:48Arabia's crude production has already2:50fallen by 1.9 million barrels per day to2:53just 6.2 million, its lowest going all2:56the way back to 1990. And off the news2:59of hotter than expected inflation data3:02and oil hitting $100 per barrel, the3:0510-year Treasury yield broke above 4.95%3:08today. This is its highest level since3:10November of 2023, and it puts the yield3:13up roughly 95 basis points since the3:16Iran war began. And on the yield's3:18current trajectory, it's possible that3:20we could see the 10-year hitting 5% or3:23higher by just next week, right in line3:26with the FOMC meeting on September 16th.3:29The 30-year yield also just saw a3:31massive spike, climbing to 5.37%,3:35its highest level in 19 years. Higher3:38rates played a role in existing home3:40sales, falling 2% in August from July,3:43the slowest pace since June of 2025,3:46with sales also down 1.2%3:48year-over-year. Buyers are walking away3:51from deals at the highest rate in years3:53with 14% of home purchase agreements3:56falling through in July, the highest3:58since November of 2023. And sellers now4:01outnumber buyers by roughly 51%.4:05Yeah, higher yields aren't just4:07affecting the stock market. It's4:08affecting almost all markets. And Trump4:11announced yesterday night that he would4:13issue a $5,000 dividend to every adult4:17US citizen if Republicans retain control4:19of Congress in the midterms. With4:22roughly 245 million adult citizens in4:25the US, the proposal could cost around4:27$1.2 trillion, making it the largest4:30stimulus program since the pandemic.4:33Trump also said on Wednesday that he4:35expects the Iran conflict to end4:37immediately after the November4:39elections, arguing that Iran won't be4:42able to hold on much longer. JD Vance4:45and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have4:48reportedly warned Trump that Iran could4:50continue resisting the US blockade and4:53military pressure long enough for the4:55conflict to extend beyond Trump's term4:57into 2029. While this might not be as5:00exciting as Trump's $5,000 dividend, we5:03are giving away some pretty awesome5:05trading hardware in our giveaway, and it5:07ends on Tuesday, and anyone can join.5:10First place is going to get a standing5:12desk and a great chair. Second place is5:14going to get an awesome curved monitor,5:16and third place is going to get a5:17keyboard and mouse. All places also get5:20uh some of our top education as well. To5:23join in on the giveaway, click that5:25first link in the description to join5:27the Stocked Up Discord. go to the5:29giveaways channel and click that green5:31check mark. Uh the winner will be5:33decided this Tuesday. Anyone can join.5:36So consider doing that if you haven't5:37already. And Tom, as we look at the5:40market right now, SPY is now 2.75%5:44off of its all-time high. What are you5:46seeing on the charts right now? The SPY5:49continued its downtrend this morning,5:51especially as that PPI data release and5:54the ECB hiked interest rates. So, I'm5:57going to be watching SPY still to the5:59downside in the short term as this6:01overall move plays out. Something that's6:03very important to remember with tomorrow6:06is that this CPI release could cause the6:08SPY to either spike to the upside or6:11move lower. And of course, there's6:12always a chance that it could chop6:14around as well. I think that being very6:16dynamic and having an open mind into6:19this reading tomorrow morning at 8:306:21a.m. Eastern time is going to be smart6:23to do. So continue to be dynamic and be6:26willing to adapt if the spy ends up6:28moving lower. Even if you're a bull, for6:31example, uh one of the biggest levels I6:33will be watching to the downside is 7566:36on the overall market. If the spy breaks6:38down under 756, I will be watching for a6:42further selloff to ensue. I think that6:44that would be a good level to watch,6:45which is just under the low of day from6:48today and is a big support that I've6:49been watching from the past. At the same6:52time, breaking back above 760 would be a6:55good feat. We could see that in the6:57middle of the day today, the market6:58attempted to break 760 three different7:01times and rejected down in each of those7:03tries. So, that's a pretty big uh sell7:05wall heading into tomorrow. I will be7:08watching that for an initial breakout.7:10If we do see a good breakout there,7:12watch for 762, 765, and 768 to the7:16upside. The SPY does have quite a bit of7:19work to do to get back to that all-time7:20high.7:21>> Let's look at what the data is showing7:23for tomorrow. Historically speaking,7:26during CPI reports, the market has been7:29pretty 50/50. Both in terms of7:32percentage of the times that it went7:34positive on the day that CPI was7:37released, but also in terms of average7:39returns, like the market is just really7:4250/50 in days like tomorrow. One thing7:45that I thought was pretty interesting is7:47that the two prior CPI reports had7:50pretty similar patterns to what we've7:52seen so far. The prior day return was7:56negative. Today was definitely a7:58negative day. If tomorrow ends up being8:01positive like the two prior uh instances8:04were um you know that's one thing to8:06look out for, but also the five and 108:09five and 10day percent change ended up8:12going negative. So, um, keep this in8:14mind heading into tomorrow as well.8:17>> Yeah, I find these statistics to be very8:19fun and interesting when going into some8:22of these larger events, but we can't8:24move forward without looking at the8:26earnings lineup for tomorrow, which is8:28pretty clear, but Oracle and Adobe did8:31report an after hours tonight. So far,8:33Oracle is pumping up pretty well, and8:36Adobe is also moving to the upside. So8:38keep your eyes on these two stocks. If8:41they continue pushing higher, software8:43in general and IGV might also get a bit8:46up. But Mike, besides that, I think it's8:49time for the fun stuff, which are some8:51setups and predictions for tomorrow. And8:54with my first play, I'm looking at8:55ticker symbol UVXY.8:58UVXY is in an insane position right now.9:01It moved up 5.17%9:03today, and it's similar to your S&Ps9:06play from yesterday. If we continue to9:08see volatility across the market and9:11especially if the CPI inflation data9:14comes in hotter than expected tomorrow9:16and a broad sell-off does take place, uh9:18we could end up seeing this move higher.9:20Now, this follows short-term VIX futures9:23and it actually magnifies it by 1.59:26times being 1.5x leverage. So, I I will9:29be watching this for a move higher if9:31volatility continues to spike. And if we9:34actually go back to earlier in 20269:37whenever the Iran conflict kicked off,9:39UVXY spiked 84% in just a couple of9:42months. But that's not what's most9:44important. What's most important is to9:46notice how some of these days moved by9:4820% or more on on one single occasion.9:52Yeah, it's a volatile one. Let's keep it9:54close on the radar. And another stock9:56that's close on watch is Dell9:58Technologies, ticker symbol DL. The10:02stock is up roughly 296%10:05year-to date and we did see a lot of10:08selling pressure come into it today.10:09Better than than I was even expecting.10:11It fell by over 5% on the day after10:14yesterday reaching brand new all-time10:17highs at around $56310:21per share. I think Dell is offering a10:23good riskreward in a downside sense and10:26it is uh already selling off and you10:29know again way better than I was10:30expecting. uh so far I think it can10:33especially fall more if the market10:36continues to weaken and I like this10:38harsh rejection that the stock is having10:41after just forming new all-time highs10:44yesterday. Basically, ever since that10:46point, the stock has been down ever10:48since. Dell is on my downside radar for10:51a broader potential rotation play where10:54if we do continue to see the market10:56weaken and we do continue to see10:58economic growth get threatened due to11:01the geopolitical factors at play, I11:04wouldn't be surprised if more investors11:07took profit not only with Dell but many11:09other companies as well. And I would11:11like to see the stock get below $400 or11:14ideally even lower throughout the coming11:17months. Again, this isn't necessarily a11:19play just for tomorrow, but more of a11:22broader rotational play. Yeah, Dell has11:25been seeing some amazing bids higher11:27lately, but you know, with the move the11:29past couple of trading days, we are11:31starting to see a bigger shift in that11:33sentiment and price action. I'll be11:35watching it very closely, Mike. But with11:37my next play, I'm looking at Apple to11:39the upside. Yeah, Apple actually held11:41its ground really well today. popped up11:433.5%11:45despite the SPY moving lower and having11:48that nasty sell-off in pre-market. Now,11:50Apple did actually end up dropping11:52yesterday as their iPhone launch event11:54came out, and I think traders and and11:57investors in general were pretty upset11:59with the pricing of their new iPhone.12:02This is the iPhone Duo. It's coming in12:04at a price point of around $2,000, at12:06least a starting price point. I'm sure12:08that there will be higher memory options12:10that end up costing more. The pre-orders12:13for this open up on October 16th and it12:16does seem like now on the second day12:17here it is getting some more positivity12:20or at least Apple stock is being up on12:23such a weird red day. So I will be12:25watching Apple tomorrow if it continues12:27to move off of this positivity. I could12:30see this uptrend continuing to play out.12:32If we actually zoom out with Apple over12:34the past few weeks you can see that it12:36was having a clear uptrend. Now,12:38yesterday as it got volatile with that12:40event, it broke under that slightly, but12:42I really like today's confirmation back12:45up, especially on a red day in the12:47market. So, continue watching Apple12:49tomorrow. I think that it could be a bit12:50of an outlier here in the tech sector12:53compared to everything else as the CPI12:56reaction starts to play out early on.12:59>> Very nice. Another stock close on watch13:01is UG. another energy play where uh this13:06this has been doing phenomenal over the13:08past few weeks and months. This fund13:11tracks gas prices and of course it has13:14been exploding. I thought that the13:17developments that we saw in Yemen today13:19were a bad sign for this conflict as a13:22whole and it appears that the market13:24agrees with that and that is why gas13:27prices are continuing to rise even13:29higher. UG is still on my bullish radar13:32as it appears that this conflict is not13:35going to end anytime soon. Um, the13:38higher gas prices go, the higher UG13:41goes. Of course, other energy related13:43tickers are still on watch as well, like13:46XLE, CR, and just the energy sector as a13:50whole. There's been a lot of money made13:52in that area of the market so far this13:55year. UG just had its best day since13:58August 10th. That is quite the jump14:00there by UG today at 5.3%. I'll be14:03watching it very closely, Mike. And I14:05know a lot of energy plays are still14:08definitely on the radar given how this14:10conflict is shaping up. But with our14:13plays out of the way, it's time to jump14:14into today's momentum plays. And with14:17the first one, I'm looking at ticker14:19symbol RDDT or Reddit to the upside. If14:23Reddit can bounce above $157,14:26look for a continuation higher. It had a14:28great move early this morning and has a14:30clear overhead resistance to watch for14:32tomorrow.14:33>> With the next one, we have Redwire Corp,14:36ticker symbol RDW, also to the upside.14:39Yeah, Redwire had a good bid this14:41morning. It did start to fade off14:42towards the end of the trading day. But14:44if it breaks out above $11.35,14:47watch for another move. Whenever this14:49stock pumps, it can have some insane14:51runs as over the past year, its average14:53rise is nearing 6%. And then with the14:56last one, we have Coreweave, ticker14:58symbol CRWV, to the downside. Yeah,15:01Coreweave pulled back very hard today,15:03closing down 6%. And you can even see15:06yesterday and after hours is where a lot15:08of that drop occurred. If it breaks15:09under the short-term double bottom at15:12$88.40,15:13continue watching Core Weave Lower.15:16These three stocks are on the radar for15:18potential continuations tomorrow if and15:20only if they break through the levels15:22listed. These stocks are volatile, so15:24always protect yourself, use stop-15:26losses, and focus on making smart,15:28disciplined trading decisions above all15:30else. We have a lot of great free15:32information in the Stock Discord group,15:35so check that out as well. And let's15:37jump right into today's $2 million big15:40money trade. Today, we are looking at15:42ticker symbol NRG. The trader here15:45bought the 125 strike call options that15:49expire on October 16th of 2026.15:53Energy Energy is a power producer and15:56retail energy provider that sells15:58electricity and natural gas contracts16:01directly to millions of consumers and16:03businesses while operating generation16:05plants across wholesale markets. This16:09stock has been, I guess you could say,16:12more so just consolidating than anything16:14else over the past few months and it has16:17been falling a bit. These call options16:20are a little bit out of the money and16:22the expiration is fairly soon which16:25makes this more of a higher risk, higher16:28reward play. Because the options are far16:30out of the money, they have a lower16:32chance of becoming in the money and a16:34higher chance of expiring worthless. But16:36what comes along with that is higher16:38leverage. If NRG does make a big move,16:41these call options can do extremely16:43well. I think it's also in an16:46interesting industry as well being a16:48power producer, which I would expect16:50them to do well over the long term. Of16:52course, that doesn't mean the stock has16:54to necessarily rise this month. I think16:57the biggest risk here is this trade17:00being a potential covered call trade,17:02which is always a possibility, but17:05especially with the world changing so17:07quickly, especially on the energy17:10production front, I think it's a very17:13interesting setup. Yeah, it definitely17:15is. As I look at NRG here, it's17:17definitely been downtrending over the17:19past few months. And if we actually go17:22towards that recent peak and you know17:24draw out the trend line, it's been very17:26consistent here. Now, something that17:28could end up playing out with NRG that17:30would be ideal for this overall big17:33money trade would be if this lower17:35support zone holds up. It's recently17:37held around $19 to $112. That is a very17:41large zone of support on NRG. And if we17:45actually look at the overall uh drop17:47with NRG lately, it's kind of filling17:49this massive gap. Uh NRG in 2025 had a17:53big gap up on earnings and continued17:55higher post earnings as well. And as we17:58had ended up seeing this drop play out,18:00the gap has now filled and there is a18:03massive zone of support right around18:05this 110 to 112 range. So I'm going to18:08really watch this range closely here. If18:10this does break down, it's going to be18:12hard to continue to hold this play. But18:14if we do see some maybe news come out18:17with Trump mentioning something about18:18energy companies, of course, or anything18:21with tariffs that could help some of18:22these companies, we might see NRG18:24perform a bit better off of this level.18:27Very interesting. And 125 is a bit18:30concerning, but it's not overly far away18:32if NRG does get a good bounce starting18:34to go.18:35>> Let's keep it close on the radar. And if18:37you're new to the channel, welcome and18:39consider obliterating that subscribe18:41button. For every single trading day, we18:44post brand new videos just like this18:46one, showcasing crazy multi-million18:48dollar big money trades, stocks to keep18:50on the radar, spy levels, and analysis,18:52the most important news, upcoming18:54information, past stats, and so much18:57more. If you subscribe, you'll get our18:59videos recommended to you more often.19:01So, definitely consider doing that. And19:03let's also give a giant shout out to19:05today's member of the day, Dzang in the19:08Stocked Up Discord group who had some19:10great profits today with MNQ about $742.19:15Huge shout out to you. Keep up the great19:17work going forward. It's awesome to see19:19posts like this one. And if you guys are19:21into short-term trading, check out that19:23first link in the comments down below to19:25get in on the Stocked Up Trading floor.19:27This gives you full access to our army19:29of custom trading bots, daily big money19:31trades, weekly live events. You can chat19:33with Tom and myself all day long. Access19:35all of our custom software, education,19:38and so much more. It's the place to be19:40if you're into short-term trading, and19:42you can save uh quite a bit with the19:44coupon code in the comments as well.19:47Thank you guys so much for watching, and19:49let's crush it in the market tomorrow.
3,349 words · 483 lines
