Transcript of Gold Warning: It's Time
TraderNick
0:00Today's breakdown in oil prices changes0:02things for precious metals, stocks, and0:04currencies. And in today's video, we'll0:06be taking a technical and macro view of0:08what's gone on in markets in recent0:09times and whether or not there are some0:11new trends here forming that could0:13actually send gold much higher. One of0:15the biggest sort of headwinds to0:17precious metals, if you're a gold0:19trader, has been rising bond yields0:22because effectively it is sort of0:24pressuring the Fed to hike interest0:26rates, making the dollar look relatively0:28more attractive versus other currencies0:30on terms of higher yields. Well, if the0:34inflation story could maybe take a step0:36back on lower oil prices, that could0:38drastically change everything. And oil0:41is actually basically trading into its0:43fourth down day in a row. A little bit0:46of selling pressure coming in here on US0:49oil may actually be uh just what gold0:52and silver and stocks needed here in0:55terms of cooling expectations for rising0:57inflation. We can verify if this is0:59taking place by looking at the bond1:01market.1:04So, bond yields, at least for now, are1:06not changing too dramatically, but you1:07have the 10-year yield slightly lower,1:10factoring in maybe some expectations for1:11inflation. Inflation are cooling, and1:13the 2-year yield is maybe just stalling1:16here, but really not too far. However,1:18when we look at the 30-year, you can see1:20it is moving a little bit lower here.1:22And uh overall, if we take a look at the1:24US dollar in all this, it's mostly1:27unchanged. And here's a look at gold on1:29the day, you can see it is really just1:31basically running in place. We have not1:33moved very far here in quite some time1:34for gold, but we are showing some signs1:37of a potential breakout taking place1:39recently. Here is that ginormous Fed day1:41where the market sold off where we got1:44sort of the the Federal Reserve hiking1:46interest rates and guiding for1:47potentially more hikes. But as we talked1:50about on the channel on that day, the1:53idea that this thing is going to keep1:55going lower sort of relies a little bit1:57on inflation expectations continuing to2:00rise off of what's going on in the2:02Middle East. And actually there has been2:04some mixed headlines. We've seen in some2:06ways [snorts] willingness being talked2:09about from both sides to negotiate once2:11more uh Iran and the US with some2:14deescalation uh involving you know of2:17course the the um the Yemen the Houthies2:20being talked down from China. We talked2:22about that on Friday's video. We also2:24have seen the White House wanting to2:26potentially open negotiations again and2:28Iran also uh presenting forward again2:30their terms. So there's at least some2:33possibility that there is dialogue that2:35is maybe starting again and that's all2:38the market needs by the way a deal or2:40not is is you know very far away here2:43but the negotiations even discussing2:46things once more could very quickly send2:49gold much higher without any sort of2:51tangible deal to speak of. The point is2:53markets are very forward-looking. And so2:55if negotiations, you always sort of have2:57to be looking at this from are they2:59improving or are they worsening, not3:01necessarily are we going to have a deal3:03this week or not, right? If you're3:04thinking that way, you're going to be3:05way behind because if there is3:08negotiations that are in any way3:09starting again, gold could very quickly3:12rebound sharply. And I know that sounds3:14confusing because you're like, doesn't3:15gold love chaos? Well, it does. It3:18generally does well in uncertainty3:20except when that chaos is causing3:22massive inflation concerns which3:25basically make it so that people are3:27going to want to collect yield in the3:29bond market or or buy uh or hold on to3:32cash in case there's some sort of global3:33margin event. Uh gold while it is3:36certainly uh a a hedge over the longer3:39term to inflation. Rising inflation in3:41the short term and interest rates going3:42up generally is a bearish thing for gold3:45in the here and now. That's why you may3:46have heard if you're a precious metals,3:48you know, super fan, you may have heard3:49people talk about how the conflict in3:51the Middle East may long-term actually3:53be a bullish story for gold, but in the3:55meantime continues pretty much all of3:57the 2026 to have mostly been a bearish4:00story. Long-term again, this could lead4:03to the Federal Reserve needing to do4:05quantitative easing if there's economic4:07damage that comes out of this, etc.,4:09etc., and gold loves QE. the long term4:12maybe, but uh in the short term, which4:14is what we primarily focus on in this4:15channel, there's a lot of mixed4:17sentiment here. And generally speaking,4:20the war coming to a close would be more4:22of a bullish thing in gold uh in the4:25short term in my view. But with midterm4:26elections, I think that's a possibility4:28and something that we shouldn't fully4:29rule out that both sides don't have a4:32huge incentive to find some sort of4:35resolution that favors them, right?4:37Obviously, that's easier said than done,4:39but it's clear to see both sides have4:41heavy incentives to find some sort of4:44war conclusion. From a technical4:46perspective, gold continues to hold this4:4850% to 61.8% retracement zone. I've said4:52many times on the channel that if this4:53level gives out, if we fall apart here,4:56rate or interest rate hike expectations4:58continue to rise dramatically, if that5:00happens, then I've got to cut the trade5:02and re-evaluate where I'm at with it. Uh5:04this week is pretty light on the5:05economic data, but there is plenty of5:08uncertainty with midterms coming up,5:09this conflict in the Middle East, etc.5:11So be on the watch for breakouts here.5:13Uh if we're talking about to the upside,5:15what I think from a technical5:16perspective would look really healthy5:18would be if we can actually get back5:19above like the 4440 level or so. That's5:23been kind of the upper limit of this5:25choppy rangebound environment. We still5:27look tentatively like we're putting in5:29some kind of head and shoulders pattern,5:31but to be fair to the bulls here, you've5:34come down, you broke that neckline and5:36have not sort of seen the follow5:37through. If you get that follow through,5:39then I would say, yeah, that looks like5:40a head and shoulders pattern. But right5:42now, this is sort of still just a5:44consolidating market. Sometimes we can5:46see patterns that are not fully5:47developed there yet. And again, if we5:49break through those lows, then there's5:51the pattern. We've got some sort of5:52inverse head and shoulders pattern that5:54is confirmed. But if you see this thing5:57sort of hold these lows and actually5:59start breaking and putting in a new high6:01that really sort of uh sort of undoes6:04that progress that the bears had had6:06here. So at this time it is really for6:07me a waiting game to see if we can get6:09back up into let's call it the 4500s.6:11That's really the the line in the sand.6:13If we can get back above there then we6:14look very constructively bullish. And if6:17we fall through these lows, uh, then I6:19stop out of my long position and I reset6:21because I think that that looks very6:23bearish and confirms this sort of head6:25and shoulders or inverse. And actually,6:27no, this is a head and shoulders6:28pattern. Inverse would of course be the6:30opposite. Silver also looks actually6:32healthier than gold in some ways. If you6:34take a look at from a technical6:35perspective, you've got support here6:37holding really well. And again here for6:39that invert or that head and shoulders6:42concept to be faded then we probably6:44would want to see this thing actually6:46breaking above back into the high60s if6:50not into the 70s. That would sort of6:51confirm the selling pressure was not6:54enough and we could potentially see6:55higher prices from there. Again you have6:57to work with me here. We are talking6:58about a very choppy back and forth7:01market and if you've been watching7:02precious metals it's kind of been like7:04watching paint dry recently. I have a7:06long position that has been sitting here7:08doing a whole lot of nothing. We've gone7:10up, we've gone down. Uh but I've just7:12sort of sitting in the trade until it7:13makes a decision. An edge finder isn't7:15giving us too much to work with here7:16either. It's got a neutral reading.7:18Looking at technicals, you've got a7:19bearish reading. Sentiment though,7:20you've got bullish with institutions who7:22are super long on gold. We talked about7:24this on my Sunday video. Institutions7:26continue to pile in long on gold. Uh so7:30that is something where I'm like okay I7:31want to sit with that trade because I7:32think generally speaking if smart money7:34continues to buy gold on every possible7:36dip then I I too want to sort of be on7:38the long side until proven wrong.7:40Macroeconomics are a little bit mixed.7:41The only data point that is showing up7:43here uh this week is going to be weekly7:45jobless claims. I believe everything7:47else is pretty much sort of just on on7:50watch. Next week we'll get the non-farm7:51payroll number. We'll see if that7:52continues to confirm the jobs data7:54strength that we recently saw. I think7:56that's really worth discussing really7:58quick. So, the previous non-farm7:59payroll, we had 162,000 jobs versus much8:02less than that expected. It was a strong8:04print. So, going into next NFP, I'm very8:07curious to see if that theme, if that8:09vibe or that energy continues. We beat8:12by 107,000 jobs in terms of8:14expectations. But before that, we had a8:16couple misses. So, the next one I think8:18will sort of help to solidify how things8:20are going with the jobs market. Previous8:22time around, uh it was a grade B here in8:25terms of our edgefinder AI summary.8:27solid rebound in hiring uh with an8:29unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate helped8:32by broad private sector gains and upward8:35revisions to prior months, but still not8:37strong enough to merit an A given only8:39moderate wage growth and pockets of8:41sectoral weakness. Love having these8:43breakdowns. We're adding them, by the8:44way, to all of our economic data over8:46time here. We're working hard on that8:47behind the scenes. If you're not a if8:49you're not a current user of EdgeFinder8:51and you would like to try it, uh I'll8:53leave a link in the description down8:54below to where you can sign up for a8:56trial and get some information about how8:57this tool works and how you might be8:59able to implement it into your trading9:01to find better opportunities in markets.9:03Real quick, I wanted to take a second to9:04tell you guys about today's video9:06sponsor, Owanda. Awanda is a Forex and9:08CFD brokerage that has been in the space9:10for years, and they currently have a9:12special promotion where new clients can9:14get access to free Trading View Premium.9:16New qualifying clients can receive a9:18coupon for three months access for a9:20Trading View free subscription to9:22Essential Plus or Premium Charting9:24Packages. In order to qualify, open an9:26eligible OAN account and meet the9:28minimum trading volume requirements for9:30the desired charting package coupon.9:32Terms and conditions apply, and they've9:34actually had a history with Trading View9:36for 10 plus years at this point. And9:37with a 4.6 six-star rating on Trading9:40View and 33,000 [music] plus reviews.9:43Owanda is pretty wellknown, has a solid9:45reputation in the space. Owanda also has9:48competitive spreads and fast execution9:50for traders looking to level up their9:52trading with Trading View [music] tools9:54as well as a brokerage like Oanda.9:57Consider checking them out down below in9:58the description. [music] I'll leave a10:00link where you can explore this special10:01offer that they are offering my10:03subscribers for a limited time. Thanks10:05again to Oanda for supporting today's10:06video. Now, back to the content. Taking10:08a quick look at the top setups page,10:10which basically summarizes all the10:12finding of EdgeFinder across technicals,10:14sentiment, economic growth, inflation,10:16and jobs market statistics that we track10:18within our software. We can see some of10:20the stronger versus weaker readings out10:21there. Maybe one of the more concerning10:23things is that the US 10-year Treasury10:25is still getting a bearish reading.10:27Although it is sort of a soft score, a10:29minus4 reading is a bearish reading, but10:31it is a barely a bearish reading. So we10:33have some bearishness there on the10:35treasury side of things which that would10:37suggest remember that bond prices move10:39inversely to uh bond yields. So the idea10:42there is the thought process is if bond10:44prices move lower that's sort of10:46predicting or or suggesting that our10:47data is generally pointed more in the10:49direction of thinking rates could10:51continue to rise here which wouldn't be10:53a shocker. This thing has been in a10:55overall upward trend here for a while.10:56Though just to clarify it's a minus410:58reading. So, not an extremely convicted11:00reading, just a soft bearish lean in11:03terms of all of our data. Indices11:05continue to get bearish readings here in11:07terms of a overall macro and and you11:09know, general bias here. If I go take a11:11look at my top setups page or my uh my11:13asset scorecard and flip over to, for11:16example, the S&P 500, you can see it's11:18getting a very bearish reading overall.11:20Um, and what that tells me is, again,11:22most of our metrics are bearish, but it11:24doesn't tell me to go out and short. I11:25think this is a good example of a11:27situation in which even though11:28EdgeFinder leans a particular direction,11:31it does not mean I'm just going to go11:32take this trade because if I pull up the11:34S&P 500, I don't I don't agree with the11:37technical side of this being yet11:38bearish. What I'd be looking for would11:40be some kind of failure at this level.11:42And this is what we had talked about the11:43last few weeks. A failure at this 755011:47level or so would maybe actually set up11:49some short opportunities, but we never11:51saw that. price actually rebounded very11:53nicely from that area finding support11:55and actually looks in my view11:57constructively bullish in line with11:59longerterm upward trends. So even though12:01edgefinder has a particular reading, it12:02doesn't tell me just to go blindly take12:04a trade. It tells me that generally the12:06macro and sentiment and commitment of12:08traders data is suggesting one12:10particular direction. But if the12:12technicals don't agree with it and my12:13strategy doesn't have a setup, then12:15there's nothing for me to do there. So I12:17don't have any trades to take on the S&P12:19500. were above the stack of moving12:20averages that I watched, the 20, 50,12:22100, and 200. And so there is no12:25interest in my view for shorting the S&P12:27at this time. In fact, with short-term12:28momentum starting to flip more12:30positively for stocks, a couple days12:32like this and edgefinder will certainly12:33go more neutral. Uh because the12:36technical reading here, the 4hour and12:37daily chart trend is, you know,12:39basically on watch about to get breached12:41the other direction and actually start12:42to look bullish. So that would lean12:44completely the other way giving us12:46probably let's just say that this is a12:48by the way um another reading12:50seasonality is going to go bullish in12:52October which is you know 10 days away.12:54So if October flips bullish you could12:57actually see this thing go from minus312:59all the way to plus three which would13:00sort of negate some of the readings and13:02go neutral. So you have to kind of keep13:04an eye on this these data points. they13:06are subject to change and if price13:09continues to rip higher, edgefinder will13:11certainly be more neutral than where it13:13currently sits. That said, if we were to13:15see, you know, severe failure here, a13:17lower high come in and actually start to13:18break through these lows, then I13:20definitely could see actually looking at13:22a short setup. And so, I actually like13:24that this is on the watch list. I just13:26need to see price action sort of confirm13:27that thesis. And the thesis really is13:30built around the idea that you have some13:31sticky inflation. You have crowd13:33sentiment, which is very bullish. You13:34can see bullish sentiment is very very13:36high right now. I'll show you that in13:38some of our crowd sentiment tools. So uh13:40in traders, investors, they are chasing13:42the rally here. Take a look at our put13:43call ratio showing again a large amount13:46of call volume coming in for the S&P13:48500. We can also flip this over to our13:50net options volume tool to track this in13:52more detail. You can see there it is13:54coming in suddenly crowd sentiment13:56getting a little bit more bullish. I13:57wouldn't say this looks extreme. Let me13:59just refresh it just to make sure we14:00have the latest data. Yeah, we have14:02September 18th. So that's going to be um14:04that. So yeah, I I wouldn't say that14:06this is ne necessarily at a massive14:08extreme in terms of absolute volume of14:10of options. And this is why, by the way,14:13if you are a follower of this channel,14:14then you know we look at both net14:16options volume as well as the pure ratio14:19of put versus call within our system. Uh14:22the ratio itself tells you there's a lot14:24more calls traded than puts. And the net14:27options volume says, well, yes, but on14:29sort of a light amount of volume14:31relative, right? you're not seeing these14:33sort of massive volume uh one way or the14:35other. You're seeing kind of modest14:37volume and the ratio still being high14:39for calls. I hope that makes sense. I14:41know that's a little bit complicated if14:42you're newer to the uh sort of tracking14:44sentiment tools, but we have a large14:46library of sentiment tracking stuff.14:48Like I said earlier, if you want to try14:49out the tool, the link is in the14:51description down below. And we can also14:52do this for gold. Let's just check gold14:53really quick. You can see gold has14:55really shaken things up. We went from14:57everyone was very bullish to gold to now14:59uh or to then everyone was very bearish15:01on gold and now very neutral. So this15:03kind of doesn't give us a a a strong15:05reading either direction. Just tells you15:07crowd sentiment is a little bit neutral15:09on gold at this time. We should probably15:11also be able to see this within gold's15:13put call ratio. If we pull this up, you15:14can see yes, the ratio has cooled.15:16People were very bearish. Now they're15:18very neutral on gold. and watching this15:20sentiment. This is powerful stuff15:22because when it gets too one-sided,15:24often times it does tend to coincide15:26with tops and bottoms in markets and15:29knowing that that may be nearing can be15:31a useful indicator to tie into your15:33technical analysis. And stocks look15:34really solid today in terms of like the15:36tech side of things. Look at the NASDAQ15:38actually pressing higher. And I am a15:40shareholder of Meta, which is up15:42massively today, up 6 and a half, 6.6%.15:45Not too shabby at all. We're seeing uh15:47several breakouts here across a lot of15:49tech stocks. You have semiconductors15:51also looking really healthy today. This15:53is a good sign for the AI trade, right?15:54Seeing these things rebound. Other one15:57is MAGS, right? We've talked a lot about15:58the MAG 7 ETF hitting a fresh all-time16:01high. These are positive signals for the16:03stock market. To see the AI leaders16:05actually leading is nice in terms of the16:08health of the markets side of things. I16:10also took some trades last week. I went16:12long XLF, which hasn't moved too far,16:15but the financial sector, I bought the16:16dip on this one. I also I also bought16:19XLR. Um, this one pretty actually I16:23think it's slightly negative on me so16:24far. I also bought biotech uh the16:27biotech ETF IBB. So, I'm placing several16:30trades out there even though I'm sitting16:32kind of in this quiet gold trade in the16:34meantime, but I'm also trading several16:36stocks and ETFs uh to sort of go16:38alongside that. Trading fundamentals can16:40be a lot of hard [music] work, but we16:42actually made a pretty cool free16:44Telegram channel where we are publishing16:46constantly [music] updates on what is16:48going on from a macro fundamentals16:51perspective. And no, it's not AI. It's16:53not written by a robot. It's written by16:54a real person on our team. His name is16:56Allan. He puts together a report each16:58day on what is going on in things like17:00gold, currency pairs, commodities,17:02indices,17:03>> [music]17:03>> etc. on a global financial fundamental17:06analysis basis. It's a really cool17:08newsletter where you can basically stay17:09on top of things by reading for like a17:12minute per day if that would be17:13interesting to you to join the free17:15telegram channel. There is a link in the17:17description down below on this video17:19that you can join and get into the17:21action there. We also offer special17:23discount perks for our products [music]17:25as well as for funded accounts and for17:28brokerages etc. And we also do some17:30giveaways as well. So definitely take a17:32second to join the Telegram channel in17:34the description down below. I also want17:36to take a second to just genuinely thank17:38you for [music] supporting my content17:39here. Make sure to subscribe and hit the17:41thumbs up button if you have not17:42already. And I do hope that more videos17:44in the future [music] will continue to17:46help you on your trading journey. Good17:47luck. Thanks for watching.
3,721 words · 531 lines
