Transcript of Things Are About To Get Bad…
StockedUp
0:00Iran is on high alert saying they have0:02info the US is preparing new military0:04action. The US State Department is now0:06warning Americans to reconsider travel0:09through the Middle East and Trump cut0:10short his weekend at Camp David.0:13Netanyahu also cut short his upcoming US0:15trip to now return to Israel the same0:17day. As crude oil shipping costs are0:20surging at a dangerous rate, it doesn't0:22help that Ukraine just fired one of its0:24largest drone attacks ever hitting0:26Moscow's only oil refinery. Today we0:29cover what to know, where the action is0:31right now, and what to pay attention to0:34as we head into the trading week.0:39>> Iran once again listed its conditions to0:42end the war and said the Strait of0:44Hormuz will stay closed until the US0:46meets its conditions including0:48unfreezing Iranian funds, ending the war0:51on all fronts, lifting the naval0:53blockade, and ending all US attacks on0:56Iran. Iran said it has information that0:59a big new attack by the US was being1:02prepared and warned against it saying it1:04would trigger sustained retaliation1:06against US bases and interests and that1:09Washington regional allies would be1:11considered parties to the conflict. This1:14morning Trump said he is in deciding1:16mode with Iran saying his choices are1:19wiping Iran out, letting them rot1:21economically, or making a deal. He also1:24added, "My question is if and when do I1:26blow the entire nation up? They better1:28behave." Adding even more pressure to1:31oil supplies, the Houthis launched1:34missiles and drones at Riyadh this1:35weekend with a large fire breaking out1:38near the city's main airport. Ukraine1:40also launched over 1,600 drones toward1:43Moscow overnight marking one of their1:46largest attacks ever and hitting1:48Moscow's only oil refinery that also1:50supplies more than 33% of all fuel in1:54the region.1:55>> This comes just 6 days after Trump said1:57Ukraine and Russia agreed not to hit2:00each other's energy targets in an effort2:02to lower diesel prices and after he2:04claimed the global diesel price rise is2:07mostly caused by the Russia-Ukraine war,2:10not by the Iran war. The claim hasn't2:12aged well as US diesel just reached its2:1512th straight record close at $6.50 a2:18gallon, now up 100% from its January2:21low. France is also facing a growing2:24fuel shortage of its own with 15% of gas2:27stations now reporting large shortages.2:29For comparison, this percentage usually2:31sits around 4% but has grown2:34exponentially as Europe struggles to get2:35oil and the situation could get even2:38worse next month with Saudi Arabia2:40cutting crude oil shipments to its2:42European customers. Saudi Aramco2:44reportedly told buyers they will receive2:47no crude under their long-term contracts2:50after attacks damaged their key pipeline2:52to the Red Sea. The US State Department2:55also warned Americans to reconsider2:57travel through the Middle East warning2:59that there could be potential unforeseen3:01escalation.3:02>> After that warning, Trump cut his stay3:04at Camp David short and returned to the3:07White House a day earlier than expected3:09with no explanation given. And JP Morgan3:12says it has given up trying to forecast3:15the war saying for the first time since3:17the start of the Iran conflict, we don't3:19have a baseline view and that quote, we3:22simply don't know how to model the end3:25game.3:26But hey, if you guys are new to the3:27Stocked Up channel, make sure that you3:29destroy that subscribe button. We spend3:31a ton of time making all of these videos3:33and of course include all the best3:35information and even some fun plays and3:37setups for the next trading day. So if3:40you're new here, hit the subscribe3:42button and also hit the like while3:44you're at it. But Mike, the cost to ship3:47crude oil is also surging at an extreme3:49rate. The cost to ship 2 million barrels3:52from West Africa to China have jumped to3:55$23.593:57per barrel, up from roughly $6.50 in4:00July. That's a 258%4:03increase in just 2 months due to the4:06Iran war and Houthi conflict. And with4:09diesel prices continuing to hit new4:11records, the US is now looking for more4:13oil wherever it can get it, rapidly4:16increasing its imports of Venezuelan4:18crude. Imports jumped by 183,0004:22barrels per day last week to 782,0004:26barrels per day, the highest weekly4:28level since August 2017.4:30>> Over the past 6 months, imports have4:33surged 237%4:35to their highest level in nearly a4:36decade. And we are also now only 10 days4:39away from historically speaking the best4:42buying point during a midterm year.4:45September 30th has consistently had the4:47lowest S&P 500 performance since 1928,4:51so almost 100 years worth of data when4:53it's in a midterm year, making it4:56historically speaking a great buying4:57point.4:58>> Yeah, whenever I look at a chart like5:00this, it gives me a lot of confidence as5:02we head into the end of September, but5:04of course, be ready for short-term5:06volatility and short-term fluctuations5:09as the end of September is historically5:12where we see more negativity happen. And5:14on Friday, the spy did fall down 0.12%5:18and is now 2.27%5:21off of the all-time high. And we saw5:23spies get stuck in a major range last5:26week. Early on last week, the spy5:28actually gapped down into Monday as5:30there was some negative AI news. And of5:32course, we saw that big move to the5:34downside on Wednesday with the FOMC5:37meeting before eventually popping back5:39up late Wednesday night and into5:41Thursday. But as we saw that overall5:44range stayed in play and there is major5:46resistance at $764.5:50If the spy fails to break past this on5:52Monday morning and starts rejecting back5:54down, we're going to have to adapt back5:56to the downside here. But if we do see5:58the spy break past 764, that would be a6:01good bullish sign to start the week.6:04Although there's been a lot of6:05negativity coming out over the weekend6:07regarding the Iran war. And if there is6:09a breakout there, the high from a couple6:11weeks ago on Friday is right around 7666:1550. That is going to be a big resistance6:17to watch for along with 765 once that6:20breakout occurs. At the same time, if6:22there is a clear rejection, the low from6:25Friday at 758 and especially the double6:27bottom from Tuesday of last week down6:30around 765 50 will be on watch as major6:33supports. If we see the support range6:36give out, I think the spy could start to6:37fall down and test lows from Wednesday6:40down around 750 and that would be a6:42pretty nasty move.6:43>> Yeah, let's keep a close eye on those6:45support levels because we are set for6:47what appears to be a loaded schedule6:50ahead. And we'll talk more about that in6:52just a second, but there's a super6:54interesting stat right here where we can6:56see historically speaking since 1950,6:59there have been 34 other years where7:01this has happened and the S&P 500 went7:04on to finish September positive just7:06once back in 1953.7:09>> That is insane and you know, that goes7:11all the way back to 19537:13and if we actually look at a lot of7:15these rest of the month percent changes,7:17you know, I think that that's even where7:19things get even worse because look at7:21the past few. Whenever we saw this7:23happen in 2022, the rest of the month7:25went down another 7% to finish the month7:28down 9.3%7:30and then in 2023 when it happened, it7:33fell another 2.6%7:35to end the month down 4.9%7:38overall. That is pretty negative and as7:40we know, September is historically the7:43worst month for the market. So keep this7:45in mind as we navigate over the next few7:47days. And speaking about the next few7:50days, also looking at the schedule for7:52this week overall, there are a lot of7:54Fed speakers mixed in and there really7:56isn't any huge economic data points7:59until Friday as we see durable goods8:01orders and even Michigan consumer8:03sentiment final for September data8:06starts to release. So be ready there.8:08But something else that's going to be8:10highly on the radar for this week and8:12also highly influential for the stock8:14market is that Trump and Chinese8:17President Xi are set to meet this8:19Thursday in Washington. And as we know8:21the talks are going to be focused on8:23keeping the US China tariff truce in8:26place that's supposed to expire November8:2810th while also covering AI development8:31and other economic issues.8:33>> AI will be especially important as the8:35US and China compete for the lead in AI8:38development and there will be multiple8:40high-profile tech CEOs also meeting with8:42Trump and Xi during the meeting on8:45Thursday. And then right ahead of this8:47summit, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent8:49is meeting with China's Vice Premier in8:52New York today for another round of8:54trade talks. This week's earnings lineup8:56is pretty clear. Costco will report8:58after close on Thursday, but there's9:00also some news to know about that9:03Anthropic is set to launch its IPO in9:05November at a $2 trillion valuation even9:09larger than the SpaceX IPO and therefore9:12the largest IPO of any stock ever.9:16>> And at the moment Anthropic is expected9:18to close out the year with more than9:19$100 billion9:21in annualized revenue. And as we know9:24some of these IPOs can be pretty crazy9:26based off of how SpaceX has moved since9:28they hit the market. So that will be9:30fun. I'll definitely keep that in mind.9:33But Mike, I think it's time to jump into9:35the good stuff which are some setups and9:36predictions for tomorrow. And with my9:39first one, I'm looking at Coinbase to9:42the upside. We actually saw an insane9:44recovery by Coinbase to end the week9:47after seeing some negativity on Tuesday9:49and Wednesday as the Clarity Act was9:51actually9:53shut down within the Senate. It9:54obviously did not pass. It did not get9:57to that 60-vote threshold. And while the9:59Clarity Act obviously cast a blow to the10:02crypto industry, the CEO at Coinbase10:05believes that there's another path10:07forward for crypto investors, saying10:09that we let politics get in the way, I10:11guess. And also adding in that I would10:13just at this point assume it's dead,10:15noting that, quote, "There's another10:17path, luckily, with the regulators, the10:19SEC and the CFTC." So, with there being10:23another path, we could see that, you10:25know, Coinbase is seeing renewed10:27optimism back to the upside here. And10:30there was a that was this amazing move10:32Friday that made up for all of that10:34negativity in the middle of the week10:36with that 12% move essentially. And if10:39we look at Coinbase on the daily chart,10:41it's approaching its major resistance10:43zone from the past few weeks right10:45around 196. And if it can break out past10:48this zone tomorrow, I think that we10:50could finally start to see Coinbase get10:52out of this overall lower zone that it's10:55been stuck in. It's been stuck down here10:57since since its June sell-off. And I'll10:59be continuing to watch it for a11:01potential move higher. I think it's11:03interesting how much some of these11:04cryptos and just crypto-related11:07companies recovered even with the11:09Clarity Act failing.11:10>> Yeah, Friday they had a massive move.11:12And like he pointed out, there are some11:14important levels coming up for Coinbase.11:16So, it'll also be on my radar as well.11:19Another stock, of course, still on the11:20radar is XLE and energy tickers in11:23general like UGA, which tracks gas11:26prices. Gas prices are going higher by11:29the day, and there is a real global11:31shortage happening. Like we discussed in11:33today's video, there were a lot of11:35energy-related catalysts that happened11:37over the weekend, whether it be what11:39happened in the Middle East or even in11:40Europe or, you know, any of the existing11:43news that is just continuing to develop.11:46XLE, CRAK, UGA, and other energy-related11:50tickers are still on the radar. They're11:52all near highs, and for as long as these11:55geopolitical conflicts continue, I think11:59uh energy should still be close on12:00watch.12:01>> Yeah, and even some of these companies12:03like BWET that track like tanker12:06shipping, you know, like even these are12:08flying up right now up nearly 11% on12:10Friday. I'll be watching energy like a12:13hawk, especially with all the weekend12:14updates. I think that we might see oil12:16futures start to gap up uh into the into12:19tonight. So, be ready for that open.12:21But, with my next setup, I'm looking at12:23Intel for another upside move. And I12:26know that I called out Intel from12:28Thursday into Friday. And unfortunately,12:30Intel did not get that breakout starting12:33to happen. But, I do love the way that12:35Intel held its ground and the way in12:38which it started to recover back up on12:40Friday. And if it continues to hold this12:42major support zone around like 107 to12:45107.50, I will be watching it for a12:48continued move higher here. Um I do12:50think that whenever we look at Intel12:52overall, it had been stuck down in its12:55zone for such a long time, and um we're12:57finally starting to see a breakout past13:00this key resistance around like 105 to13:02107. And if we can continue to sustain13:05this move and break above the high from13:07last week around 112.50, I think we13:10could start to see much larger um13:12uptrend start to take hold and possibly13:14even a test of all-time highs over the13:17next few weeks, especially if the13:19overall market continues marching back.13:21But, of course, there is always that13:23risk of a gap down into early this week.13:26And if we see a gap down because of all13:28the Middle East updates and a lot of13:30chip stocks are falling, obviously this13:32is going to be a no trade. I really want13:34to see that high from last week break as13:36confirmation. I think that would be a13:38great early sign.13:40>> Very nice. Another semiconductor related13:43stock is on the radar and it is Dell,13:46but to the downside. I know I mentioned13:48this one a bit last week and it is a it13:50is approaching some major resistance,13:51especially around that $60013:53psychological level. On Friday it had a13:56great down day as it fell by 3 and 1/2%.13:59What I potentially like even more is the14:01path that it took. You can see that not14:04even just throughout the entirety of the14:06regular hour trading day, but even in14:09pre-market, the stock basically went14:12straight down from that peak around $59914:18per share. I think Dell at this point is14:20a bit overextended and like we covered14:24last week, there has been increased talk14:26of a potential slowdown in AI. I think14:30this makes for a potentially good risk14:32reward playing Dell to the downside over14:35the coming weeks and months. I think in14:37the worst case scenario where Dell14:39continues to uh sustain its already14:43existing upward momentum, the trade can14:45be cut relatively quickly, but if the14:48trade is right and Dell does fall, I14:50wouldn't be surprised if it has a lot of14:52room to go down. So, it is close on the14:55downside radar. It's more so of a trade14:57that can play out over the coming weeks14:59and months, though.15:00>> Yeah, Dell has been following a serious15:02uptrend, especially over the past few15:04weeks and it seems to be really testing15:07it here right now, especially at this15:08big support zone. And if this gives out,15:11I could see it also falling down, Mike.15:13I will be watching it closely as tech15:15stocks do seem to be under a lot of15:17pressure, but not all of them and that15:20actually gets us into today's momentum15:22plays because at the end of last week15:25memory chip players were actually on15:26fire as SanDisk popped up by 11% and if15:30it breaks out above $1,800 into this15:33week, continue watching it to the15:35upside.15:36>> With the next one we have ExxonMobil15:38ticker symbol XOM also to the upside.15:41>> The cool thing with XOM is that it's15:43been pulling back over the past five15:44trading days or so and if it breaks out15:47past 164 early on this week, watch it to15:50the upside.15:51>> And then with the last one we have Tesla15:53ticker symbol TSLA to the downside.15:56>> Yeah, Tesla was pretty choppy on Friday15:57and there's a clear intraday support to16:00watch for. If it breaks down under16:01$360.80,16:04watch Tesla to the downside.16:06>> All right, so we have these three stocks16:07on the radar for potential continuations16:10tomorrow if and only if they break16:12through the levels listed. These stocks16:14are volatile so always protect yourself,16:16use stop losses and focus on what16:19matters which is making smart,16:20disciplined trading decisions. We have a16:22lot of great info in the Stock Up16:24Discord group so check that out. But16:26let's also jump right into today's16:28$904,00016:30big money trade. Today we are looking at16:33ticker symbol CMG. This is Chipotle16:36Mexican Grill. Um the trader here traded16:39the $32.5016:41strike call options that expire on16:44November 20th of 2026. This trade has16:48roughly two months of time to it so it's16:50kind of like a medium-term trade and16:52these options are in the money which I16:54think is a good sign. Uh looking at16:58Chipotle, it has been relatively weak17:00over the uh past year or so and it is17:03approaching some support around that 3217:06to $30 area.17:08From a charting standpoint, I don't17:10think anything really sticks out about17:13it too much but I do like to see it uh17:15forming some higher lows since roughly17:19June. I like how the traders potentially17:21buying the dip here and I do like how17:23the options are in the money and they17:25have some time to them. Interesting17:27setup and I mean I'm excited to see how17:28it does.17:29>> Yeah, and the thing with the trade like17:31this is that you don't necessarily have17:33to have a super long-term bullish17:36outlook on Chipotle to really see a big17:39money trade like this play out. You17:40know, it's more of a trade that can work17:42out in the short-term. Like if we start17:44to see the overall market move down, we17:47can actually see that Chipotle has a17:49weak correlation to the spy. We could17:52maybe see traders start to rotate into17:54some of these stocks like Chipotle that17:56might perform better than maybe some of17:58these overpriced AI stocks if they start18:01falling down and traders start to18:03de-risk on that side of things. Um also18:06maybe the Iran war, you know, causes18:07traders to start to rotate and this is a18:10place that they rotate to. Um another18:12thing that I saw on the charts with this18:14trade is that you know, Chipotle has18:16been downtrending very hard and in the18:18short-term there's a clear resistance in18:20play right around this $39 to $40 range.18:23If we could see this range start to18:25break over the next few weeks to even18:27couple of months, I think that it would18:29really start to show that this downtrend18:31is ending and we're starting to see like18:34Chipotle try to form a good base. Like18:36Mike was saying, there's a lot of key18:38zones of support that Chipotle is18:40starting to bounce off of and form that18:42base with here. So if we do see a bounce18:45off of the lower end of the range of18:47this base, I think that this would be a18:49great trade to take advantage of a18:51retest of that $38 to $40 range, if not18:54even a breakout past it. I will say this18:57trade does have earnings coming up on18:59October 28th and it would be a trade19:01that ideally works out before earnings19:03because at that point the trade will be19:06within one month's time and you know, I19:08I think it would be pretty risky to hold19:10through the report there.19:11>> Let's keep it close on the radar, but19:13before we cover anything else, we have19:14to give a giant shout-out to today's19:17member of the day, Dominican10 in the19:20StockedUp Discord, who had a great post19:22on Friday. A huge shout-out to you.19:25Thank you so much for all the kind19:27words, and congratulations to those over19:29$78,000 in profits year-to-date so far.19:32We still have a few months left to the19:34year, so keep on rolling. Huge shout-out19:36to you, and thank you so much for all19:38the kind words as well. If you guys are19:41into short-term trading, check out that19:43first link in the description and19:44comments down below to get in on the19:46StockedUp trading floor. Right now,19:49coupon code hike will give you a nice19:51discount on the yearly plan. You get19:53full access to our army of custom19:54trading bots. You can chat with Tom and19:56myself all day long, join our weekly19:58live events, and basically access20:00anything you could need for short-term20:02trading. We're also adding a lot more to20:05the trading floor as well over these20:06coming months, so definitely check it20:08out. You can save quite a bit right now20:10with coupon code hike. The link for that20:12will be in the description and comments20:14down below. Besides that, thank you guys20:16so much for watching, and let's crush it20:19in the market tomorrow.
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