Transcript of Gas Prices Are About To Get Insane: Exports Suspended
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0:00Gas prices are about to get even higher0:02after China suspended fuel exports as0:04the US is now sending a third aircraft0:07carrier alongside additional Marines to0:09the Middle East. They will arrive in the0:11next few weeks, closely aligning with0:14Trump saying he expects to resume0:15bombing Iran after the midterms. We just0:18entered quarter 4, which is historically0:20been a strong period for the stock0:22market. Global bond yields are surging0:25and two very important catalysts will0:26come out tomorrow. Today we cover why0:29stocks are going crazy, what to know,0:31and where the action is right now.0:37The global diesel market is getting0:39tighter after China suspended fuel0:41exports until further notice. This comes0:44as the wars in Iran and Ukraine have0:46contributed to a global diesel shortage0:48that oil executives are saying won't0:50return to normal for more than a year.0:53And today, the Trump administration told0:55Germany and France to draw down their0:58emergency diesel inventories or face a1:00potential US diesel export ban. And the1:03US reportedly wants the EU to release1:06120 million barrels of diesel. And the1:08EU's energy task force is set to discuss1:11this request and its options on Friday.1:14But the US is now also sending a third1:16aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore1:18Roosevelt, and additional troops to the1:21Middle East. That'll put three US1:23carriers in the region at once with the1:25Roosevelt expected to arrive around the1:27midterms by the end of November. And1:30today, Trump said that renewed military1:32strikes against Iran are possible after1:34the November midterms, adding by1:36annihilating Iran, we've created peace1:39around the world. And with Iran, I don't1:41think you could ever have peace. And1:43gasoline futures rose 4.6% today. And1:46crude oil kept climbing higher as hopes1:48for a deal with Iran are fading. Trump1:51is calling for possible strikes after1:53the midterm election, pretty much giving1:55us a timeline that this is not ending1:57anytime soon. Iran is now preparing a2:00stronger response if the US resumes2:03large-scale attacks with senior Iranian2:05commanders now considering expanding2:07potential targets beyond US assets to2:10countries supporting US operations and2:13potentially outside the Middle East.2:16Iran's president said the US should get2:18the idea of bringing us to our knees out2:20of its head. The US 10-year Treasury2:23touched 5.342%2:25today, its highest level since 2002.2:28Global bond yields are surging, too,2:31with France reaching levels not seen2:33since 2002, and the UK reaching its2:36highest level since 2007.2:39Bloomberg suggests yields are being2:40pushed higher due to recent global2:42interest rate hikes, higher oil and2:45diesel prices, AI infrastructure2:47hyperscaling, and a few other reasons2:49listed here. Treasury seasonality points2:52to even more weakness in October. Over2:55the last decade, treasuries have posted2:57a median October return of minus.7%,3:01their second worst month of the year3:03behind September. So, that's not really3:05that good either. That comes as 10-year3:07Treasury futures are already on track3:09for their worst September since 2022.3:12And today is October 1st, officially3:14marking the beginning of Q4. This has3:17historically been higher 80% of the3:19time, and it has been green 12 of the3:22past 13 years for the stock market. So,3:25there is good news there. And during an3:27election cycle specifically like we're3:29in now, quarter 4 of year two through3:32quarter 2 of year three have shown3:35extremely strong performance.3:38Historically, quarter 4 of the midterm3:40year has finished higher 84% of the time3:44with Q1 of the next year finishing3:46higher nearly 95% of the time. 20263:50truly is a unique year and history does3:53suggest though that we're in for a nice3:55uptick after a pretty flat September.3:57So, the bulls better get ready. And4:00also, the Tesla bulls better get ready4:02as Tesla will report its Q3 deliveries4:04tomorrow with an expected 461,0004:08vehicles delivered, down 7% from last4:11year and down about 4% from their Q24:13deliveries. But the report will be4:15extremely important as it will give4:17investors a look at Tesla's demand as4:19the broader EV market in the US4:22continues to slow down. But looking at4:24the economic schedule, it's also been4:26jam-packed this week. And we're going to4:28kick things off tomorrow with non-farm4:30payrolls and the unemployment rate 14:33hour before open. So be ready. The4:35Federal Reserve is watching jobs data4:37very closely. And of course, the market4:39is too. So, if this comes in away from4:41the consensus, we could end up seeing4:43the market have a crazy reaction. But4:46speaking of the market and crazy4:48reactions, SPY is now 1.97%4:51off of its all-time high. And we can see4:53that over the past few days, SPY has4:56been channeling very hard to the4:58downside. And today, at the end of the5:00trading day, it actually tested this5:02downtrend. So, I'm going to be watching5:04very closely tomorrow for a breakout5:06above the high of day today around 765505:09to 765. If we can see a good breakout5:12right there, I think that we could see5:14this overall downtrend start to test.5:16And I wouldn't be surprised if SPY5:18started to break out to test this peak5:20back on Thursday morning or technically5:22Thursday night last night uh right at5:25768. And if it breaks past there, I'll5:28be looking at 76950 to 770 which was the5:31high on Wednesday. But of course, the5:33SPY is nuts right now. And if we do end5:35up breaking through support at 760, keep5:38your eyes on 758 and 756 down underneath5:42this range. Very interesting. And5:44another thing to keep in mind is that5:46the market we're seeing right now is5:48really being driven by the few big tech5:52stocks at the top because less than 42%5:55of S&P 500 stocks are above their 2005:58day moving average, the lowest level in6:00over a year. So the breath is horrible6:03right now as we've been covering. Even6:05with this though, similar historical6:08readings have seen the S&P 500 trade6:10higher in the short term 5 days later6:13every single time. So that is good. And6:16zooming out, the S&P 500 still isn't a6:19bull market. On average, bull markets6:22last a lot longer than bare markets,6:24too. More specifically, roughly five6:26times longer. But of course, we are6:28having a handful of important things6:30develop right in front of us right now,6:32like the surge in diesel prices, yields6:35going crazy, and of course, the AI6:37bubble continuing. So, I think we're set6:40for a lot of volatility and opportunity,6:42not only in a short-term sense, but6:44especially throughout uh the rest of6:462026 and even into 2027. Yeah. And we're6:49only around 1.4 years into this current6:52bull market. And with it averaging, you6:54know, around 5.3 years, we could see6:56some more buying pressure if this6:58overall bull market continues to play7:01out. But if you guys are not yet7:03subscribed, make sure that you destroy7:05that subscribe button. As you can see,7:07we have a lot of viewers that are not7:09subscribed. So, make sure that you smash7:11it up because we spend a lot of time7:12putting these videos out every single7:14day for you guys, covering the best,7:16most relevant information in the stock7:19market, even with some plays and cool7:21information mixed in as well. So, make7:24sure you're subscribed if you have not7:25yet done so. But also, the earnings7:28lineup is pretty barren for the rest of7:30the week. Nike did report tonight and7:32it's all over the place in after hours.7:34So, watch that into tomorrow. But Mike,7:37I think it's time to jump into the fun7:39stuff, which are some setups and7:40predictions for tomorrow. And with my7:43first play, I'm looking at Zam or Exxon7:45Mobile to the upside again. I know I was7:48looking at this play yesterday and today7:50it did pop up by 66%, but you can see7:53that it fell down in after hours trading7:56yesterday and early this morning before7:58ripping at market open back up towards8:00the high from yesterday. And I'm still8:02overall watching that high from8:04yesterday as resistance. As we can see,8:07it was also the high last Thursday, one8:09week ago. And if we can break past this8:11range, I think that ZAM could continue8:13up very well. If we look at the daily8:15chart, there is a good target up around8:18167 to 170. And I would love to see it8:21come up and retest this range over the8:23next few days, especially because we're8:25starting to see crude oil bounce back to8:27the upside. If we look at crude oil8:29futures, it's been following a very8:31clear uptrend. And over the past couple8:33days, it's been getting very close to8:35this trend again. And if we continue to8:37see a bounce off of this, we could see a8:40continuation higher. And of course, that8:42would affect oil companies like Zam. So,8:44keep oil on the radar. I think the8:46energy is back in play here, at least in8:48the short term.8:49>> Yeah, XLE is still close on watch as8:52well. I know this is a ticker we've been8:53mentioning so much in 2026. it crushed8:57it today. And this ETF tracks the US9:00energy sector in a very broad sense. Uh9:03with oil prices continuing to rise, with9:06gas prices continuing to rise, and9:08especially with the US uh sending a u9:11another aircraft carrier to the Middle9:13East and China suspending their exports.9:16Those are all like pretty big uh warning9:18signs in my opinion. So energy stocks9:20are close on the radar. Uh XLE is uh9:24definitely on the upside watch. Yeah, it9:26closed up 1.9% today and look at just9:29the overall movement on that green9:31candle. That was a massive candle there.9:33I would say even more massive than the9:35move that Zam made today as well. So um9:38with but with my second play, I'll be9:40watching Nvidas also to the upside which9:42is Nvidita semiconductor and on Monday9:45Nvidas was actually awarded9:47participation in the US Army Aladdis9:50initiative. Then the project is focused9:52on developing ultra-igh voltage silicon9:54carbide power semiconductor technology.9:57The award highlights Nvidas'9:59capabilities in defense grade power10:01electronics and domestic manufacturing10:04which sparked an early week gap up but10:06it has since faded back down until today10:09where it popped up another 4.3%.10:12And as we can see with Nvidas, it's been10:14in a longer term uptrend as well. And10:17it's followed this trend line very10:18consistently, bouncing off of it around10:21six to seven times over the past couple10:23of years. And it recently bounced off of10:25it. And the last time that it bounced10:27off of this trend line, it got to around10:29$15 a share. And if we could see Nvidas10:32end up having a good recovery in the10:34short term and breaking through this10:36week's high around $13 up to that $1510:39range, it would be a great end to the10:42week and possibly even start to early10:44next week. So, I'll be watching Nvidas10:46closely. I noticed that a few AI stocks10:48started to pop back today, which was a10:50breath of fresh air after what we've10:52been seeing recently.10:54>> No doubt. Another stock that's close on10:56watch is XBI. This is an ETF that tracks10:59the biotechnology industry. It did pull11:02back a fair amount today, but it still11:04is above some major recent support11:06levels. This industry has been really11:08hot this year uh as there have been some11:10great developments in the biotechnology11:13industry and a lot of its stocks uh have11:16been moving very strongly as well. uh11:19XBI is on the radar of course in a11:22broader macro sense especially as tech11:25continues to develop and as uh it11:28appears that biotechnology companies may11:30have a lot to gain from AI. Uh but it's11:34also on the radar in a shorter term11:35sense as well assuming it can hold some11:38of these important support levels around11:39like 153 or so. If we do see it break11:43down that would be a red flag and in11:45that case I don't think it's worth you11:46know trying to force a u bullish move in11:50a shorter term sense but it has been11:53strong and it is in the um it it has11:56been in the process of pulling back over11:58recent weeks and I wouldn't be surprised12:01if it continues to hold these levels of12:04support if it can make for a good12:06riskreward opportunity playing it back12:08up. Yeah, this level of support is very12:11strong and a double bottom there12:12recently. So, I'll be keeping that on12:14the radar. It's getting pretty close to12:16it yet again. But Mike, with our plays12:18out of the way, I think it's time to12:20jump into today's momentum plays. And12:22with the first one, I'm looking at12:24ticker symbol ASAN or Asana to the12:27upside. If it breaks out above $9.30,12:30watch ASAN up. It closed up 5.9% today12:34and was a lot higher than that at the12:36high of day. With the next one, we have12:38Service Now, ticker symbol NOW, also to12:41the upside. If N can break out above12:44$141, watch it to the upside as well. It12:47was nice to see Software make a slight12:49comeback today.12:51>> And then with the last one, we have12:52Disney, ticker symbol DIS, to the12:54downside.12:55>> Yeah, Disney had a massive pullback at12:58market opens today. And if it breaks12:59down under $11 tomorrow, watch it for a13:02downside move towards $100, if not even13:05lower. These three stocks are on the13:08radar for potential continuations13:10tomorrow if and only if they break13:12through the levels listed. These stocks13:14are volatile, so always protect13:16yourself. Use stop losses. Only enter13:18trades you know why you're entering and13:20focus on making smart, disciplined13:22trading decisions above all else. Let's13:25also jump right into today's $3.213:28million big money trade, though. Very13:30interesting one with ticker symbol AA.13:33The trader here traded the 40 strike13:36call options that expire on June 17th of13:392027. This company is the Alcoa13:42Corporation. It's a global industrial13:44leader in the extraction and production13:48of boxite, aluminina, and aluminum13:50products used across aerospace,13:52automotive, construction, and packaging13:55markets. I think this is a very13:57interesting trade for a couple reasons.13:59Uh the first one is that the calls are14:02slightly in the money and they have a14:03good amount of time to them which is a14:04good sign. It's a roughly $3.2 million14:07trade. So it's you know a fairly large14:09trade as well. I like how the options14:11are slightly in the money and how they14:13have a lot of time to them because they14:15are higher quality than very far out of14:17the money options especially if they14:18have a short-term uh expiration date.14:21But also this company is naturally14:23involved in like the real world like14:26commodities market as well which if we14:29do continue to see inflation rise higher14:34I wouldn't be surprised if companies14:36like this one uh benefited. And another14:39thing that we can see is that the stock14:42is down considerably from its recent14:44highs uh back in May. It made a high14:47around like $84 per share and it is down14:51nearly 50%. So that might offer a nice14:54riskreward. I like how it has a lot of14:56time to it. Um but the stock, you know,14:58has been pretty weak over the past like15:00few months or so. So it would be nice to15:02see, you know, some buyer step in here15:04and for the stock to show, you know,15:06some signs of stabilizing.15:09I actually went back and looked on Alcoa15:11at some larger support zones and you15:13know right where we are now is one of15:14the larger zones out there around4 to15:17$42. We have seen the stock make a lot15:20of reactions there and it recently just15:22fell under support around 43 around lows15:25of 2026. So I will be watching it for a15:28potential bounce off of this support.15:30And there's also another very large15:32support zone down here around $35. This15:35was actually the low of September 2022.15:38And we can see that there's also been a15:40few different bounces and touches off of15:42that area, too. So, I'll be watching15:44this zone very closely. Uh, this is a15:46stock and a trade that's going to take a15:48lot of patience right now. You know,15:50this stock has been very weak. It's been15:52downtrending. It did make a good15:54comeback today, but this trade expires15:56June 17th of 2027. you know, you're15:59going to have to probably give this16:00trade a few months at least to play out16:03and it could chop around in this range,16:05you know, maybe into the end of this16:06year before rising early 2027 or16:09something like that. Just keep that in16:11mind as you calculate your risk with16:13this trade. I would say that that's16:14going to be the biggest thing is to make16:16sure that you have some patience here.16:19>> Yeah, let's keep it close on the radar.16:21And let's give a massive shout out to16:23today's member of the day, Omar, who16:26crossed a major milestone today, up over16:30$200,000 in profits. He had a great post16:33as well. Huge shout out to you, Omar.16:36Thanks for being a great member of the16:38community and uh awesome job with your16:41perseverance and and just huge shout out16:43to you. This was a great post today and16:45keep up the great work going forward. A16:48lot of other people had some great16:49profits today in the profits channel as16:52well. So, shout outs all around. If you16:54guys are into short-term trading, check16:57out that first link in the description16:58and comments down below to get in on the17:00stocked up trading floor. Uh the17:02Surgebot had some nice uh moves today as17:04well. You get full access to our army of17:06custom trading bots. You can chat with17:08Tom and myself all day long, join our17:10weekly live events, and basically access17:12everything you could need for short-term17:14trading. We have a bunch of great tools17:16uh within Discord as well and coupon17:20code hike will save $100 off the yearly17:23plan. This will eventually expire, so17:25definitely check that out. We still have17:27a coupon uh active. Besides that, thank17:30you so much for watching. The coupon17:32will be that first link in the17:33description and comments down below. And17:35let's crush it in the market tomorrow.
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