Transcript of Tomorrow Will Be Crazy (Major Reversal)
StockedUp
0:00Stocks moved higher today after PCE data0:02came in much cooler than expected, but0:05all gains got erased by market close.0:07The US changed the way PCE inflation is0:10calculated. Yields are still surging,0:12and the stock market is repeating0:14patterns last seen before major drops.0:17Iran has now received a US response to0:19its 7-day peace proposal as Trump says0:22we could see things happening very soon.0:25Today we cover why stocks are falling,0:27what to know, and where the action is0:29right now.0:34Stocks immediately moved higher after0:36the Fed's preferred inflation gauge came0:38in cooler than expected today. Headline0:41PCE inflation came in at 3.4%0:44year-over-year versus an expected 3.7%0:48while core PCE fell to 3% versus a 3.3%0:52expectation. and the S&P 500 rallied0:55almost 1% from pre-market lows. But0:58there's an important caveat to note with1:00today's data. Beginning today, the US1:03changed how three key PCE categories are1:06calculated and revised their data back1:09to 2021. The government changed how1:11portfolio management, computer software,1:14and legal services are measured. And the1:17portfolio management change is1:18especially huge as it reduces the extent1:21to which rising asset values translate1:24into inflation. SPY reversed back into1:27the red and closed down at negative0.21%1:30today. And this reverse lines up with an1:33endofday truth social post that Trump1:35made targeting Jerome Powell. He1:37essentially said Powell is to blame for1:39the cost overruns with the Fed1:41headquarters renovation project, saying1:43quote, "This is Jerome Powell's fault1:46and he should be forced to resign1:47immediately and if he doesn't resign, he1:50should be sued at the highest level by1:53the United States government." Investors1:55interpret this as threatening Fed1:57independence, which is why stocks fell.2:00And yields are still rising, too.2:02Partially fueled by today's consumer2:03spending data, which rose at the fastest2:06pace since the end of 2024, showing2:09consumers are still spending2:10aggressively, and the Fed may need to2:13keep hiking rates to tighten the economy2:15further. The 10-year Treasury yield2:17officially rose above 5.3% today,2:21reaching its highest level since 20022:24and marking its largest quarterly2:26increase since 2016. The S&P 5002:29actually rallied into the end of 20162:32despite yields rising. But keep in mind,2:342016 was a much different environment as2:37the 10-year yield was at 2% back then2:39compared to 5.3% now and the deficit was2:43nowhere near as large. Interestingly,2:46Cayman Islands hedge funds are buying US2:48Treasury bills at the fastest pace ever2:50recorded. The Cayman Islands are a major2:52legal doicile for hedge funds, including2:55many managed by US-based firms. So,2:58these flows can provide insight into3:00hedge fund activity, which shows that3:02they may be stocking up on cash. And3:04inflation has remained above the Fed's3:062% target for 66 consecutive months. And3:11equity issuance is surging. The last3:13time we saw issuance like this was 20003:16and 2021, both of which preceded major3:19market drops. Equity issuance means that3:21companies are selling new shares of3:23stock to investors to raise money,3:26likely taking advantage of high3:27valuations and enthusiasm in the market3:30right now. The majority of equity3:32issuance is coming from SpaceX and3:34Google at this time. Though, Iran said3:37it has received a US response to its3:397-day peace proposal presented during3:41the UN General Assembly last week.3:44Iran's foreign minister received the3:46response through Qatari mediators and3:48has formally presented it to the Iranian3:50government. Trump spoke on Iran at the3:53White House today, saying you will see3:55things happening very soon and that the3:57US has near total control of the4:00straight of Hormuz as it's now seeing4:02historic flows of oil over the past 34:05days. Israel has also escalated its4:08strikes in Gaza, killing at least seven4:10people today. One strike hit an4:12apartment with another hitting a4:13vehicle, while Israel said it was4:15targeting a Hamas militant planning4:17attacks against its forces. Tomorrow4:20will be the start of the fourth quarter.4:23Historically, Q4 has been the second4:25strongest quarter for the S&P 500 during4:28the 4-year election cycle. Q1 of the4:31next year has historically been even4:34stronger, ranking as the best quarter of4:37the entire cycle. So, look out for this.4:39And at the same time, since 1950, the4:42S&P 500 has typically performed very4:44well during the first two weeks of4:46October. In nearly onethird of those4:49years, the index set its low for the4:52month within the first week, and that4:54starts tomorrow. So, look out for this.4:57It's definitely some good bullish data4:59heading into October, but also Q4. But5:02at the same time, since August 31st, the5:0620 best performing S&P 500 stocks have5:09added roughly 1.7 trillion in market5:12value, but the other 480 stocks have5:16lost about $1.9 trillion in market5:19value. So, the S&P 500 is extremely5:22topheavy right now. And as we know, AI5:26and tech stocks really dominate the S&P5:28500. and how they move can impact the5:31market in a crazy way. But before moving5:34forward, we have to say to smash that5:36subscribe button. We spend a lot of time5:39putting all these videos together. I5:41know that you guys love a lot of the5:42information listed. We even go through a5:44lot of plays and awesome setups for the5:47next day as well and always try to cover5:49the best and most relevant information5:51for stock traders. So, if you guys are5:54enjoying the videos, destroy that5:55subscribe button. It costs you nothing5:57and helps the channel a little bit, so5:59we appreciate it. But also, Micron6:02released their earnings today, beating6:04EPS by 5% alongside revenue by 5%, too.6:08And year-over-year, get this, their EPS6:11is up by 1,03%.6:13That is quite the jump there. And also,6:16Nike will be releasing earnings tomorrow6:18in after hours. And it'll be extremely6:21interesting because for those of you6:22that have been following Nike lately, it6:24is down 44% year to date and has been6:27falling over the past few years. So,6:29it'll be a huge and interesting report.6:32But jumping into the S&P 500 and the6:35SPY, the SPY closed down in the red6:370.21% today and is now 2.18%6:41off of all-time highs. And that end of6:43day reversal was extremely important to6:46look at because it actually pushed spy6:48below the lows of this week. And6:51something that's going to be very6:52important now is zooming out on the spy6:54chart because we can see the lows of6:56last week, Thursday, September 24th,6:59posted right around 762. And that's7:01right where the spy is bouncing in after7:04hours today. and this 762 area. If this7:07ends up giving out over the next few7:09trading days, this could be a good7:11confirmation to the downside where we7:13might see more bearish activity come7:15into play. And if that does come into7:17play, we can see that there are some7:19huge support levels coming up. First7:21off, 760 will be the first main one on7:24watch to the downside. But even more7:26importantly, I really like 758 just7:29underneath there. This lines up with a7:31lot of SPY recent bounces over the past7:33few weeks. And then underneath that,7:35keep your eyes on 756, 752, and7:38ultimately 750, which was the low back7:41on Wednesday, September 16th, whenever7:43we had the FOMC interest rate decision.7:46At the same time, if the SPY does7:48reverse back up, I would love to see it7:50at least break past 765, which has been7:52a pretty big level the past few trading7:54days along with 76650. These two levels7:57will act as major resistances before the8:00high of day from the past few days right8:02around 770 and then even the high from8:05yesterday morning around 768 also come8:08back into play. I know SPY has been8:10extremely choppy over the past few weeks8:12and it would be nice to finally get out8:14of this zone and to have some8:16directional price action. It is8:18approaching some major support areas so8:20we might see a nice increase in8:22volatility over these next couple of8:24trading days at least. We shall see. But8:27another thing that's interesting is that8:29as we finish Q3 with a gain of less than8:324%, historically this has led to some8:35pretty bullish returns in Q4.8:38Historically, when the S&P 500 posted a8:41Q3 gain below 4%, Q4 finished higher in8:4617 of 18 cases. The only major issue to8:50look out for is that there was a 10%8:53drawdown right before the global8:55financial crisis. So look out for that.8:58But besides that, um we are setting up9:00for a good Q4 based on a lot of9:03historical stats. But there certainly9:05are some important warning signs as9:07well, like the uh equity issuance and a9:10handful of other signs we've uh hit on9:12recently.9:13>> Yeah, like it's good to see this data9:15come out and be a little bit more9:16bullish in the short term. If we do get9:18an end of the year rally, this could9:20definitely be some data to help support9:22that overall move higher. But also, the9:24economic schedule is still packed for9:27the end of this week. 30 minutes after9:29open tomorrow, the ISM manufacturing PMI9:32data will release. And I don't expect9:34that to move the market too much9:36considering how much the market reacted9:38today to PCE, personal income, and9:40personal spending data. But I really9:42expect the market to move more on Friday9:45as the non-farm payrolls and the9:47unemployment rate data will release one9:49hour before open. That will be a huge9:51release there. Keep your eyes on that as9:53the Federal Reserve is watching the jobs9:55market very closely. But Mike, I think9:58it's time to jump into the good stuff,10:00which are some setups and predictions10:02for tomorrow. And with my first play,10:04I'm looking at ticker symbol XOM or ZAM10:07to the upside along with USO. So USO is10:10the United States oil fund and it10:12follows oil a bit more closely whereas10:15ZAM is an oil stock and a company that10:17obviously distributes oil, refineses it10:20and much more. And I'll be watching for10:22ZAM to get a breakout up to 165 if not10:25even past it tomorrow as we continue to10:28see oil start to move. And it's not just10:30a play for tomorrow specifically, but10:32the next few trading days. If we10:34actually go zoom out on crude oil10:36futures, we go to a daily chart, we can10:38see that crude oil has been clearly10:39uptrending over the past few months. And10:42throughout this uptrend, there has been10:44a couple periods where it's pulled back.10:46And if we actually measure that pullback10:48and we look at the current pullback,10:50it's measuring along with that previous10:52drop. Also, it's dropping right to the10:54trend line as well. So, if we start to10:57see crude oil make a bounce off of this10:59line over the next two to three trading11:02days or so, I think that we could start11:03to see another recovery come into play11:06just like we did the last time it11:07bounced. You know, it actually moved up11:09pretty well with very little uh red days11:12mixed in. Of course, there were some11:13mixed in, but nothing that was too bad.11:16So, I'm really watching crude on this11:18trend line and I do think that oil11:19stocks could still move, especially if11:22we see some news come out regarding Iran11:24that is a bit more negative. Very nice.11:27Another group of stocks that's close on11:29watch is XBI. This is another ETF and11:32attracts biotechnology uh companies.11:35This industry has been really hot this11:37year and it's one of the few areas of11:38the market that has remained resilient11:40throughout the year. It had a nice up11:42move intraday today, but it was affected11:44by the sell-off near close. It's on my11:47bullish radar for a potential11:48continuation up, especially in like a11:50broader macro sense, but also11:52potentially in a shorter term sense as11:54well, assuming it can maintain this11:57positive momentum. It wasn't the11:59greatest sign to see that weakness12:01towards close, but again, a lot of12:03stocks were affected by that end of day12:05selloff. If it can retest that 159 level12:08and potentially even get closer to 160,12:10I think that'd be a great sign heading12:12into the end of the week. Yeah, this12:14stock had a great move early on this12:16morning and broke out in a great way up12:19to that 160 area. I'll be watching it12:21closely, Mike. It looks like on the12:23daily chart, it's making a good initial12:25bounce off of that key support that12:27we've been watching for. But with my12:29next setup, I'm looking at SPCX or12:31SpaceX to the upside yet again. And12:34yesterday I talked about how TD Cowan12:37initiated SpaceX at a buy with a $20012:40price target. But they also have a12:42launch coming up tomorrow night at 11:5312:45p.m. Eastern time. At least that's the12:47expected launch time. As we know with12:50the launches like this, weather delays12:52and certain other uh factors can come12:54into play that might uh change this time12:56slightly. But expect some fireworks and12:59overnight trading tomorrow as this13:01launch potentially plays out. Now,13:02something that I thought that was13:04interesting is that this is the second13:06and fourth flight for the two- stage uh13:08for the two first stage side boosters13:11supporting the mission. And that's13:13pretty interesting because with one uh13:15obviously this is going to be its fourth13:16flight. Now, now if the uh if the launch13:19ends up going south or something13:20negative happens, that could make the13:22stock fall. I think the chances of that13:24though are pretty low and I'm going to13:26continue watching SpaceX to the upside.13:29Over the past few trading days, this13:30stock has been starting to recover back13:33after going in a pretty bad downtrend at13:35the end of last week. So, continue13:37watching SpaceX in the short term. It's13:39nice to see it breaking out, but just13:41like Mike said with XBI, you know, that13:44end of day drop was a little bit13:45concerning today, no doubt. Which is why13:48SPXS is also still on the radar. This is13:51an ETF that basically moves in the13:54opposite direction of the overall market13:56and it's leveraged by three times. When13:58you look at SPXS, um, basically it moves14:01higher as the market falls. So most of14:03the time this ETF falls because the14:05market most of the time moves higher.14:07But when there is a major market drop,14:09this can provide some great opportunity.14:12Uh, this is on the radar, especially if14:14we do see more pressure on recent lows14:16from the S&P 500. And the more yields14:19keep blasting higher and the more14:21uncertainty continues to increase, I14:24think the better the thesis will be for14:28a trade like this one. This will14:30naturally be a little bit more of a14:32higher risk, higher reward trade because14:34it's hard to bet against the market. But14:36again, when there is a drop, uh they can14:39be pretty violent sometimes. So SPXS is14:42on the upside radar. and SPY has been14:45extremely choppy and weak over the past14:47few weeks as well. So, I'm not surprised14:49to see SPXS starting to perform a bit14:51better. And, you know, from the low of14:53day today to the high, it jumped 3%14:56which was pretty significant. I know14:57that it only closed up 73% though15:00because of the early morning pop with15:02the PCE data from the SPY. But, Mike,15:05with our plays out of the way, I think15:07it's time to jump into some momentum15:09plays for tomorrow. And with the first15:11ticker, I'm looking at ticker symbol AI15:14to the upside, which is C3 AI. If it15:17breaks out above $115,15:19continue watching for another upside15:21push. With the next one, we have Zoom,15:24ticker symbol ZM, also to the upside.15:27>> Yeah, it's nice to see these stocks like15:29AI and ZM not get too affected by that15:32end of day pullback. If ZM breaks out15:34above 9165, continue watching it up as15:37well. And then with the last one, we15:39have General Motors, ticker symbol GM,15:41to the downside. General Motors really15:44fell through that $80 support range15:46today and closed down 4%. If it breaks15:48down under 76.90, continue watching it15:51lower. These three stocks are on the15:53radar for potential continuations15:55tomorrow. If and only if they break15:57through the levels listed. These stocks15:59are volatile, so always protect16:01yourself. Use stop losses. only ever16:04enter trades that you know why you're16:05entering and you have a good plan for16:07and focus on making smart disciplined16:09trading decisions above all else. Let's16:12also jump right into today's $2 million16:15big money trade. Today we are looking at16:18ticker symbol AKAM.16:21The trader here traded the 105 strike16:23call options that expire on November16:2620th of 2026. Uh this is an interesting16:30uh trade setup as these call options are16:33very close to the money, slightly in the16:35money. They have a fair bit of time to16:37them, but nothing extreme. It's out to16:39the end of November, so it is still more16:41of like a shorter to medium-term trade.16:44This company is a global infrastructure16:46powerhouse that powers and protects16:48online experiences across three primary16:51pillars: cyber security, cloud16:54computing, and content delivery. Looking16:56at the stock, it did have a nice run in16:59the first half of the year, but it has17:01mostly cooled off since that point. I17:04think it'd be great if we can see a17:06turnaround from this recent sell-off,17:09and not only just over the past few17:10months, but especially over the past17:12like two uh weeks or so. I like how17:15these options are in the money, and I17:16also like how the expiration is uh17:19somewhat soon because it shows that the17:20trader is, you know, trading more of17:22like a short to medium-term setup. Akami17:25is extremely interesting right now17:27because back on September 24th they17:29inked a seven-year 11.6 billion dollar17:32cloud infrastructure deal with17:34Anthropic. And we all know how popular17:36Anthropic has been and how they're17:38constantly in the news for AI recently.17:41And this agreement can scale up to17:42roughly $20 billion in total commitments17:45while granting Anthropic warrants for up17:47to a 5% equity stake in the company. And17:50I find this trade setup to be extremely17:52interesting as this isn't the only stock17:55that's been pulling back. We've been17:56seeing a lot of these big chip memory17:59chip players and AI stocks pulling back18:02all since around that same time frame18:04around the middle of end to June or the18:06middle to end of June to beginning of18:08July. And looking at AKAM, it is really18:11trying to form a base down around this18:14100 to $15 support zone. And so far it's18:18been holding this base really well. Now18:20the thing with this trade is that it18:21only has a couple of months of time to18:23it. So if we happen to get let's say an18:26October recovery like a lot of18:28historical data might suggest, we might18:30start to see AKAM recover back up for a18:33couple of months off of this base. I18:35think that the riskreward ratio is very18:38enticing with this trade if we do see an18:40AI recovery. Now, if we keep seeing18:42movement like the SPY had at the end of18:44the day today and some of the drops that18:47we've been seeing with AI stocks, it's18:49going to be tough. But if we do see that18:50AI turnaround, I mean, the riskreward18:53ratio here, even just targeting a closer18:55resistance level, is sitting around 2.6.18:58And of course, with options, you never19:00know. It could be a lot better, too. So,19:02overall, Mike, I think this trade is19:04extremely interesting. And it's a it's19:06quite a bit of money put into this as19:08well. And these calls are in the money,19:09which gives me a little bit more19:11confidence.19:12>> Yeah, let's keep it close on the radar.19:14And let's also give a giant shout out to19:15today's member of the day, Vidian 2025,19:19who crushed it today with SPY and Nvidia19:21call options. Huge shout out to you.19:24Keep up the great work going forward and19:26it's awesome to see posts like this one.19:28And also shout out to Surgebot as it had19:30a crazy call out with some Apple calls19:33today that moved up by over 260%. If you19:36guys are into short-term trading, check19:37out that first link in the description19:39and comments down below to get in on the19:41Stocked Up trading floor. We also have a19:43nice yearly code running. Coupon code19:46hike will save you $100 off the yearly19:48plan. The stock market volatility19:51appears to be heating up. We have a lot19:52of news developing right now as well.19:55Thank you all so much for watching. Get19:57ready for some big moves ahead and let's19:59crush it in the market tomorrow.
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