Transcript of Загадки Истории: Великое Расхождение. Почему Европа опередила Азию?
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0:08Imagine traveling back in time to 17500:11 and getting a job as an analyst for the0:14 British East India Company. A symbolic0:17 salary of 10 pounds sounds outrageous.0:20 After all, we're talking about one of0:22 the richest corporations in history.0:24 Apple couldn't even dream of it. The0:26 East India Company had more soldiers0:29 than Apple. Today, it has 250,0000:31 employees versus 166,000. The East0:35 India Company also printed its own0:38 money, formed unions, collected taxes,0:40 and, by and large, could declare war on0:43 anyone it wanted, independent of0:45 Britain. For example, the Mughal Empire0:48 in 1686. Basically, these were people0:52 with money, to put it mildly. So why0:54 were the workers paid so conspicuously0:56 little? It's precisely because of the0:58 powers that be. The British Library1:00 literally preserved a manuscript in1:02 which a manager laughed at a question1:04 about salary. What kind of salary are1:07 we talking about if the employees of1:09 the Ostland Company control the trade1:10 of entire regions? They earn so much,1:13 just from permits and underground trade1:15, that millionaires couldn't even dream1:17 of it. And now for the twist. Imagine1:22 that, as a wealthy Western analyst for1:24 the Ostland Company, you were asked a1:27 simple question in 1750: which region1:30 will become richer in the next 2001:32 years, and will the West or the East1:35 dominate?1:37 Do you know what you would answer after1:38 studying all the documentation,1:40 statistics, and discussing the matter1:41 with your colleagues? Of course, the1:43 East—it's obvious even to an idiot.1:45 In 1750, Britain's share of global1:48 industrial output was 1.9%, China's 33%1:54. Overall, the countries now called the1:58 Third World accounted for a staggering2:00 73%of global GDP in 1750, while Western2:03 Europe, the United States, and Japan2:05 accounted for just 15%. Mysteries of2:10 History is one of the most popular2:11 sections on the channel. And today, our2:14 guest is its final boss, the Great2:16 Divergence, or, as it's also known, the2:19 European Miracle. A chain of events,2:22 unthinkable even in 1750, that led to2:25 the absolute dominance of the countries2:27 of the global West over the countries2:30 of the global East. We chose this date2:33 for a reason, because intuitively, it's2:35 tempting to say it's all about the2:37 industrial revolution, automation, and2:39 all that. But it's not that simple,2:41 friends. And now we'll prove it.2:44 Historical myths often feature various2:46 monsters, from dragons to giants. But2:49 what if they aren't just antagonists in2:52 stories invented for entertainment, but2:54 an attempt to come to terms with our2:56 real fears? This topic is the subject2:58 of the book "Fantastic Beasts of Our3:00 Subconscious: How Monsters Helped Us3:02 Become Human." It was published in3:04 Russian by Kalibri Publishing House.3:06 Author Natalie Lawrence, historian and3:09 author of scientific articles, immerses3:11 readers in the story of eight monstrous3:13 creatures. She views them not as3:15 monsters, but as embodiments of certain3:18 human traits. We really enjoyed the3:21 fact that, in addition to ancient3:23 monsters like the Minotaur and Medusa,3:25 the book also explores more modern3:27 versions of them, like Godzilla,3:28 Jurassic Park, and Game of Thrones.3:32 This creates a captivating story at the3:33 intersection of mythology, history,3:35 anthropology, ancient legends, and pop3:37 culture. Fantastic Beasts of Our3:40 Subconscious is a work that will not3:41 only expand your knowledge of mythology3:43 but also teach you how to better3:45 analyze art, film, and literature, and3:47 discern their hidden meanings. It can3:50 also help readers better understand3:52 themselves, as well as their fears and3:54 their roots. The book's design makes it3:57 an excellent gift. It comes in a large3:59 format and has a hardcover. The cover4:02 is decorated with gold foil, and inside4:03, readers will find beautiful4:05 black-and-white illustrations. Order "4:07Fantastic Beasts of Our Subconscious."4:10 How "How Monsters Helped Us Become4:11 Human"? Follow the link in the4:13 description. And see familiar4:14 historical myths in a new light. Write4:17 in the comments which region will4:19 dominate the Earth in 200 years: the4:22 West or the East, and why. Share your4:24 predictions. Soon AI will discover all4:26 the cures for us. So, in 200 years,4:29 let's gather here and test our4:30 predictions. And don't forget to leave4:33 a like. They really help videos,4:35 especially historical ones. We're not4:38 undressing on camera yet, but I'd still4:40 like to see your support with likes.4:43 Well, the steam engine was invented in4:45 1712. The flying shuttle for yarn was4:47 invented in 1733. In 1741, a factory4:51 was already operating in Birmingham4:54 where thread was spun without human4:56 intervention. And yet, in 1750, we4:59 still had a colossal advantage of the5:01 East over the West in terms of industry5:04. It was so huge that in 1721 the5:07 British government had to ban the sale5:10 of Indian fabrics in the country5:13 because their quality and price were5:16 three heads higher than local ones. It5:19 reminds me of the current situation5:20 with Chinese cars, doesn't it? What's5:22 more, it's a bit of a stretch. Even in5:24 1830, when the Industrial Revolution5:27 was over and it's tempting to say the5:29 West was already ahead, China and India5:32 still accounted for 50%of global output5:35, while Europe as a whole accounted for5:38 34%. The only problem is that by 1900,5:41 everything had changed. By then, the5:45 so-called First World countries had5:46 almost doubled the Third World5:48 countries 'industrial output, and then5:50 the gap went into free fall. By 1950,5:54 the global East's contribution to the5:56 global economy was within the realm of5:59 statistical error, but this phenomenon6:01 is called the Great Divergence. You're6:04 aware, of course, that China developed6:06 gunpowder, printing, and almost all6:09 technologies before Europe. And yet,6:11 somehow, literally in a single minute6:13 by historical standards, the global6:15 West didn't just leapfrog in6:16 development; it soared into space,6:18 while the East, which had dominated for6:20 centuries, retreated. What the hell6:23 happened? Let's figure it out. And the6:26 phenomenon of the Great Divergence is6:28 the phenomenon that no historian knows6:30 when it began. Yes, we have graphs that6:34 show that the Global East accounted for6:38 66%of GDP in 1400, 59%in 1820, and less6:41 than 30%in 1900. At the same time, the6:44 West was growing. But even the graph6:48 shows that the process is unique, as if6:50 the balance of power on the planet6:52 shifted in a second. But this, again,6:54 is only the end of the Great Divergence6:56, which collapsed somewhere around6:58 1870. And when it all began, nothing in7:02 the world happens out of nowhere. This7:05 is where historians are at loggerheads,7:07 because it's not like anything led to7:09 the Great Divergence. Song China from7:12 the 10th to the 10th centuries was an7:15 incredibly developed state, which, one7:17 could say, gave the modern world almost7:19 everything. Here they created the7:22 printing press and the so-called Xinfa,7:24 a policy of mass literacy and7:26 technological development. For perhaps7:29 the first time since Roman times, a7:31 highly challenging state examination7:33 was instituted, based on which only the7:35 truly worthy were appointed to7:36 government positions. The threat of7:39 Mongols and nomads from the north7:40 forced the Song to develop7:42 fortifications and gunpowder weapons.7:44 Trade led to the invention of the7:46 compass, and the economy to the7:48 emergence of paper money. The cities of7:50 Kaifeng and Hangzhou were the first7:52 megacities since Roman times to reach a7:55 million inhabitants. For comparison,7:57 London and Paris combined, hopefully,7:59 reach a thousand. This isn't even a8:01 competition; it's a race against time.8:04 The Song Dynasty also pioneered8:06 industrialization. The 100-8:08million-strong empire faced8:09 deforestation due to the growth of8:12 industry. To address this, the8:14 government converted all industry to8:16 coal coke, increasing the country's8:18 iron production sixfold. Seeing iron8:22 tools even in the most remote village8:24 wasn't a shock. And it was Song Dynasty8:27 China that modern scholars consider the8:30 first country to usher in the8:31 Industrial Revolution. In the 10th8:34 century, the European Marco Pola8:36 complained that he felt like a native8:38 in a future world where black stones8:40 burned like firewood. And this is a8:43 major fork in the alternative history,8:45 as many scholars groan, imagining what8:47 would have happened without the Mongols8:48. After all, they destroyed the Song8:51 Empire. Kaifeng, for example, lay in8:53 ruins. The new dynasty didn't need iron8:56 in such quantities. So development was8:58 reversed. Considering that the prime9:03 Song Dynasty itself could easily have9:05 repelled the Mongol conquest, had it9:06 not been for the impotence of its9:08 leadership, world history might have9:09 taken a completely different path.9:12 That's another story, but with the9:14 Mongols and the Ming Dynasty that9:17 succeeded them, China's handicap9:19 remained. A glance at the comparison of9:22 the ship sizes of the Chinese explorer9:24 Jenhe and Christopher Columbus is9:26 enough to understand the different9:28 weight classes. As we discussed in a9:31 previous video, China is technically9:33 100 times lighter than Europeans could9:36 have discovered America. Politics and9:38 the absence of the Ottoman Empire,9:39 which had cut off the oxygen supply,9:41 played a role. In fact, the discovery9:43 of America is a direct consequence of9:45 the East's dominance over the West at9:47 that time. The closure of the Great9:49 Silk Road hit Europe so hard that they9:52 were willing to undertake the most9:54 risky voyages just to reopen the trade9:57 route to India and China. This is most10:00 clearly demonstrated by the trade10:02 deficit. Even Pliny the Younger, in the10:04 10th century AD, lamented that India10:07 and China were annually draining Rome10:09 of up to 100 million sterlings in silk10:11 and goods, ruining the empire. After10:14 all, Rome had nothing to offer in10:15 return. Its goods were of average10:17 quality, and China and India only10:19 accepted silver. And nothing has10:21 changed in 1,000 years. As Hunt and10:23 Murray write in their book "A History10:25 of Medieval Business," European goods10:27 were practically nonexistent in the10:29 Indian and Chinese markets. They were10:32 uncompetitive. As in ancient times,10:34 Europeans had to buy everything with10:36 pure silver, which put a strain on10:38 their treasuries. It gets worse, as the10:41 East India Company has contemporary10:43 accounting records by 1740. They report10:46 that over 40 years, they exported 1610:49 million pounds in gold and silver to10:51 Asia and only 7 million pounds in goods10:54. Thus, the trade deficit amounted to10:57 almost half, and their neighbors, the10:59 Dutch, were in an even worse situation.11:03 For every guilder of goods they11:04 exported, they shipped 8.7 guilders in11:07 pure gold and silver. In short, it was11:09 a disaster for any budget, which,11:11 ironically, is very easy for a modern11:12 audience to understand. Europe in 1750,11:16 as now, could not sell anything to11:18 China. China was already producing11:21 everything itself, cheaper, and now11:23 even better. The Dutch East India11:27 Company's 1781 report spelled this out11:30 in black and white. It noted that the11:34 woolen fabric the Dutch brought to11:36 China couldn't compete with local11:38 fabrics at all. This makes the11:41 phenomenon even more interesting, as11:43 the Industrial Revolution alone can't11:45 explain this huge discrepancy. We've11:47 already established that all the11:48 technologies needed for it emerged in11:50 China earlier. Perhaps it's a matter of11:52 economic theory? Even today, people11:54 don't like to calculate GDP in absolute11:57 terms. Everyone prefers to calculate it11:59 per capita. And here, China is faring12:02 poorly. Even in 1726, China had just12:05 over a thousand goods per capita, while12:08 Britain had almost 2.5. The conclusion12:13 is that the Chinese simply accounted12:15 for all those percentages of global GDP12:18 through quantity, while Europe was more12:20 efficient. The divergence began back in12:23 1700 and by 1900 had simply reached12:26 critical mass. As you might have12:29 guessed, it's not that simple. Of12:30 course, China is larger than Europe.12:32 Britain's population is 6.2 million in12:36 1700, while China's is 138 million.12:39 This again adds to the phenomenon of12:41 the great divergence, literally David12:43 defeating Goliath. But the important12:46 point for us is that China, due to its12:48 vastness, was diverse. It included both12:51 openly medieval peasants and city12:52 dwellers who were quite advanced, even12:54 by European standards. A prime example12:58 is the Yangtze region, which since the13:00 Song Dynasty had been an incredibly13:02 developed industrial center. A new13:05 study on this issue, published in April13:08 2026, demonstrated the complexity of13:11 the issue, as it turned out that in13:13 1580, the Chinese in the Yangtze region13:16 outperformed the British in terms of13:19 GDP per capita. And in 1770, the13:22 figures were more or less the same.13:26 Just a moment: in 1580, the Yangtze13:28 Delta had a population of 19.6 million,13:31 while Britain had 3.6 million. In 1770,13:35 the figure was 8 million Britons versus13:38 25 million Chinese. There are also13:41 studies that provide data for later13:42 periods, where China had already begun13:44 to lose ground, but the essence of the13:46 matter remains the same. No matter how13:48 high the GDP per capita in Britain, the13:51 Netherlands, or elsewhere, in China,13:53 due to its vastness, you'll always find13:55 a similarly sized population living in13:58 the same way. It's just that in the14:00 overall statistics, this is diluted by14:02 the country's vast rural population.14:04 Only by the infamous 1900 did even14:06 China's wealthiest regions begin to lag14:08 significantly behind those of Europe.14:11 Specifically, $ 1,000 per person in14:14 China with a population of 36 million14:16 versus $ 3,000 per person in Britain14:18 with a population of 20 million. This14:22 figure can't be attributed to the14:24 difference in size. But on the other14:26 hand, the argument about the high14:28 efficiency of Europeans and the low14:30 efficiency of the Chinese, which led to14:32 the Great Divergence, also doesn't14:33 really hold up. It wasn't until the14:36 Victorian era that Britain clearly14:38 pulled ahead. And that era began after14:41 the Industrial Revolution. And so we14:44 have a sad situation. The Great14:46 Divergence is evident, but when did it14:48 begin and what caused it? Who the hell14:51 knows. The Chinese weren't stupider,14:53 weaker, or technologically inferior.14:56 Moreover, their technological base was14:57 an order of magnitude more advanced14:59 than Europe's. And if technology drives15:01 the Industrial Revolution, by this15:03 logic, it should have happened in China15:05 even earlier. So we need to look at the15:08 problem from an unusual angle, putting15:10 forward bold hypotheses, which is what15:12 scientists have been doing for 10015:14 years. The first and most compelling15:16 hypothesis is the division of Europe15:18 itself. It's called the Minor15:20 Divergence. The point is that long15:23 before it diverged from the East, the15:25 West also split into two parts. It was15:28 right after the plague, famine, and15:30 other epidemics that the dismantling of15:32 the feudal system began, as we15:33 discussed in separate videos. Fewer15:35 peasants. The surviving peasants15:37 demanded more rights and money. The15:40 foundations of the Industrial15:41 Revolution were laid here, in the 15th15:43 century. But what's more important for15:46 us in this episode is that Europe was15:47 divided into north and south. France15:50 and Spain suppressed all protests with15:52 fire and sword. And although serfdom15:55 was not restored, absolute monarchy15:58 remained. In England, however,16:00 following the Glorious Revolution,16:01 parliament gained control of the16:03 country's governance. And the monarch16:05 faded into the background. Holland went16:08 even further. There, merchants16:09 effectively controlled everything. One16:12 can debate the philosophical side of16:14 the issue and the downsides of ideology16:16, but the wage charts in major European16:18 cities speak for themselves. London and16:22 Antwerp began to pull ahead in the16:24 early 15th century, and consequently16:26 became more attractive to both savvy16:29 merchants and scholars eager to sell16:31 them their cannons, socks, and stories16:34 about girls' animas. Consequently, the16:38 good old furnace of European conflicts16:40 received even more fuel, and the state16:43 was motivated to develop gunpowder, the16:45 compass, steel, cannons, and anything16:47 else that could effectively fire and16:50 wreak havoc on other European states.16:53 In other words, competition drives16:55 progress. China, after all, is proof of16:57 this. Its golden years coincided with a17:00 cold standoff with the Mongols and17:01 nomads from the north. But as soon as17:04 the Mongols, and then the Chinese,17:06 began to win outright, development17:08 stalled. In addition to competition,17:11 Kenneth Pomerance, one of the world's17:14 leading experts on the Great Divergence17:16, proposed another incredibly ironic17:18 hypothesis, which he called the "ghost17:21 acres bonus." After all, with the17:24 colonization of the New World, Britain17:26 and Spain, without growing a single17:28 percent larger on the planet's map,17:30 gained an insane amount of land.17:32 Britain's import of cotton, sugar, and17:35 timber from the New World alone is17:38 estimated by Pomeranians to be 25-3017:40 million acres. That's about 10 million17:44 hectares, half the size of Britain17:46 itself. However, Britain didn't have to17:49 allocate these lands to cotton, sugar,17:51 and timber. They were physically17:53 located in America, and the colonial17:55 bonus began to work in the British17:57 favor. Moreover, those notorious 1018:01 million hectares saved came back to18:03 haunt them three times over. Besides18:06 the mundane resources, Britain could18:08 have allocated those same virtual 1018:10 million hectares to other purposes at18:12 home, for example, industry, and,18:14 ultimately, received a third bonus,18:15 where all consumables were sourced18:17 abroad, and only the most expensive and18:19 profitable production was carried out18:21 domestically. Which is precisely what18:24 happened. A 1.9 million-acre sugar18:27 plantation in the Caribbean in 183118:30 would have freed up the same 1.918:33 million acres within Britain to build a18:36 metallurgical plant. Consider the18:39 cosmic irony of this process. Europeans18:42 discovered America out of total18:44 dependence on the East and the search18:46 for a sea route to India. But18:48 ultimately, in their pursuit of gold,18:50 they found a diamond, which they later18:53 used to establish dominance over that18:55 very same East. This, by the way, is18:57 one of the important reasons why even18:59 the stingiest countries still allocate19:01 funds. But seemingly pointless research19:04, like the rate at which cats 'ears19:06 grow. Because who the hell knows. You19:09 never know where the event that will19:11 change the global hierarchy will come19:13 from. And in Pomirantso, the second19:16 horseman of the apocalypse was19:17 Britain's vertical expansion. And here,19:20 what are you going to do? Lucky again.19:23 Firstly, the dinosaurs and ancient19:24 bushes in what is now Britain were19:26 rapidly dying off, resulting in a19:28 plentiful supply of coal. Secondly, the19:30 region's geology was relatively19:32 untouched, making coal mining very easy19:34. So much so that our phantom acres of19:37 plantations in North America would seem19:39 like child's play. In 1832, Britain19:43 mined 31.4 million tons of coal. To19:48 extract that amount of energy from wood19:51 would require 127 million acres of19:53 forest, twice the size of Britain19:55 itself. Britain thus became19:58 industrially the size of China, without20:01 growing an inch in size. And what's20:04 going on there, by the way? They faced20:06 the same problem. The aforementioned20:09 Yangtze region was also growing20:11 industrially, and all this had to be20:13 fed, but more food meant less land for20:16 industry. For a while, the people of20:19 Yangtze bought food from the20:20 agricultural regions of China, but20:22 there, proportionally to the population20:24 growth, there wasn't enough food20:25 themselves, creating a vicious cycle.20:29 Britain, having acquired territories in20:31 the New World designed for resource20:32 extraction, fared much better. The20:36 situation was worsened by its large20:39 population. Whereas in the West it was20:41 profitable to replace an expensive20:43 laborer with a machine, in the East20:45 there was no such problem. There were20:47 more than enough people willing to toil20:48 for a bowl of rice. Therefore, the20:50 machines well known to the Chinese and20:53 Indians were simply lying around and20:55 were not in the same demand. But even20:58 so, by all possible standards, the21:00 global East and West were at parity by21:02 the early-mid-19th century. All these21:05 machines, phantom acres, and military21:07 progress merely leveled the playing21:09 field, but the best fabrics were still21:11 made in India, and the goods in China.21:15 No matter what you do, the final21:17 horseman of the apocalypse entered the21:20 picture: the notorious colonialism,21:22 which largely arose because Britain21:24 could not conquer Indian textiles. The21:27 bottom line. By 1765, the British East21:30 India Company was already collecting21:32 taxes in Bengal. Bihari and Arisi. By21:36 1857, with numerous warriors, it had21:40 subjugated most of India. By this point21:44, the local population was so exhausted21:46 that a bloody sepoy rebellion broke out21:48, which, ironically, led to a reshuffle21:50 of the divans, which only worsened21:52 matters. The British crown deprived the21:56 East India Company of the right to21:58 govern India and, following the22:00 colonial scheme in the New World,22:02 simply turned its second-largest22:04 economic competitor into a resource22:06 colony. Before the conquest of Bengal,22:09 75%of European exports to the region22:11 were in gold and silver. Again, because22:14 their goods were of inferior quality.22:17 After the conquest, Britain began22:18 collecting taxes in India and, with the22:21 same money, purchased resources from22:22 them, sending them back to the mother22:24 country to be manufactured. Essentially22:27, a perpetual motion machine, the only22:29 resource for which was the labor of the22:31 local population. First, it picked22:33 cotton, then paid taxes on it, and sold22:35 the cotton to Britain with those same22:37 taxes. Of course, things aren't so22:40 straightforward there, and in fact,22:41 it's more complicated, but it's hard to22:43 argue with the bare figures. In 1830,22:46 the share of British cloth in the22:48 Indian market was 2.7%, and in 1880, it22:53 was 61.4%. Either British cloth22:58 suddenly improved in quality, or after23:01 the conquest of India, administrative23:04 resources were ordered to buy it. A23:06 fresco riddle. Solve it in the comments23:09. To be fair, we should note that23:12 railways, cities, and institutes were23:14 built in India. Therefore, the question23:17 of the conquest's influence on the23:19 great divergence in the scientific23:20 community still remains open. The only23:24 thing no one disputes is the sad fate23:26 that was in store for China after the23:28 British conquest of India. After all,23:32 China was still a tough nut to crack,23:34 and a truly diabolical scheme was23:37 devised to deindustrialize it: China23:39 was simply hooked on opium. So it23:42 turned out that Britain received cotton23:45 from America and India, and India also23:47 paid taxes on the sales, which Britain23:50 used to buy Indian opium. This opium23:52 was sold to China in exchange for tea,23:54 eliminating the problem of silver23:56 outflow and a trade deficit. The tea23:59 went back to Britain for free, which24:01 also made cotton clothing and sold it24:04 back to India. At the lower end, 1524:07 million Chinese became addicted to24:09 opium. At the higher end, 50 million.24:12 This undermined both the country's24:14 economy and social welfare. And when24:17 the Qing Empire banned opium, two Opium24:19 Wars broke out, which resulted in China24:21 being hooked on opium again and a ton24:23 of territory being seized. That's a24:26 story for another video. Let me know in24:28 the comments if you'd like to see one.24:30 Let's conclude by saying that the Opium24:33 Wars were the final stretch of the24:35 Great Divergence, not its cause.24:37 Britain couldn't even dream of24:39 defeating China, a country of prime24:40 importance. What exactly caused this24:43 rupture, after which both India and24:45 China were unable to defend themselves24:47 despite their colossal economic24:49 advantages, remains a subject of debate24:51 and discussion among historians and24:53 economists. What do you think about how24:57 the West conquered the East, and will24:59 the situation change in the next 20025:01 years? Share your predictions in the25:03 comments. That's all for now from us.25:05 Until next time, friends.
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