Transcript of Tomorrow Will Be Insane: Yields Need To Go Down NOW…
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0:00The US 10-year yield is now moving in a0:02literal straight line higher up to0:045.13%.0:06Iran's president addressed the UNGA this0:09morning, refusing to surrender and give0:11up Iran's nuclear technology. Trump is0:14also now supporting a diesel export ban.0:16The stock market's falling sharply and0:18yields are hitting levels not seen in 190:21years. Today, we cover what to know and0:23where the action is right now.0:29Iran's president spoke in front of0:30nearly 130 world leaders at the UNGA0:34today, saying Iran's not going to0:36surrender. He said they're still open to0:38diplomacy and that they don't want0:40nuclear weapons, but also will not give0:42up their right to nuclear technology.0:44When combined with Trump's comments0:46yesterday, where he said he was weighing0:48whether to annihilate Iran if they don't0:51come to a deal soon, any hopes of the0:53conflict ending anytime soon have been0:55basically crushed. Iran also warned that0:58neighboring countries enforcing US1:00airline sanctions could face1:02retaliation, including action against1:04their airports. Iran is also tightening1:07control over the Straight of Hormuz with1:09a parliamentary committee approving a1:11bill allowing authorities to seize 20%1:14of an unauthorized ships's cargo. Though1:17the bill still needs approval from1:18Parliament and the Guardian Council, and1:21this isn't good for stocks. The market1:24is signaling it expects higher inflation1:26for longer. The US 10-year Treasury1:28yield jumped to 5.125%1:31today, its highest since July 2007. in1:34the third year to 5.411%1:37which is on track for its highest daily1:39close since June of 2004.1:42Yields are being pushed higher by1:44inflation and by higher oil prices.1:46Yesterday, Trump said he was considering1:48restricting US diesel exports to help1:51bring prices down. This morning, the1:53energy secretary, Chris Wright,1:56clarified that the administration does1:57not plan to completely ban diesel1:59exports, but instead do some type of2:02voluntary limit on shipments to keep2:05fuel flowing overseas. A halt on2:08shipments would be the first such2:09restriction since 2015 when Obama lifted2:12a longtime ban on oil exports. The S&P2:16500 now has the highest number of stocks2:18with a negative beta since at least2:201990, meaning a record number of2:23individual stocks are moving in the2:25opposite direction of the broader index.2:27Today was also the seventh day in a row2:30of more 52- week lows being made than2:3352- week highs. The longest stretch2:35since the Liberation Day meltdown. And2:38guess what? Tomorrow, Trump and Chinese2:40President Xihinping are scheduled to2:42meet at the White House. In 2018 and2:452019, we saw major swings in the stock2:48market as Trump started the US China2:50trade war in his first term. At the end2:53of 2018, markets fell roughly 20% in2:56just 3 months, fueled by the trade war2:58and a hawkish Federal Reserve, which3:00sounds a lot like today's environment.3:03And on the flip side, though, we can see3:05positive price action as well. On May3:0712th, 2025, the White House released an3:10official statement uh from a trade3:12meeting in Geneva, Switzerland,3:13establishing a reciprocal trade truce3:16that suspended newly imposed tariffs for3:18an additional 90-day window. Spy3:20actually ran 3.3% that day and rallied3:24over 10% over the next 2 months up to3:26new all-time highs. During tomorrow's3:29summit, they'll discuss the growing3:30safety concerns over AI development,3:33rare earth metals, and their tariff3:35trade troops. Elon Musk praised Xi3:38Jinping's leadership, saying China has3:40prospered immensely under him and called3:42for lower tariffs and fewer trade3:44restrictions with China while also3:46proposing a joint US China system for3:49regulating AI. A state arrival ceremony3:52will kickstart the Trump Xi summit and3:55then Xi and Trump will start an all-day3:57meeting tomorrow concluding in the4:00evening with the dinner featuring the4:02top CEOs. Also, durable goods and4:05consumer sentiment data will release on4:07Friday. We'll talk more about that4:08tomorrow, but expectations for more Fed4:11rate hikes are rising pretty quickly.4:14The odds of a 25 basis point rate hike4:16in October jumped from 55% to 66% today4:21after sitting below 10% just a month4:24ago. The average 30-year mortgage rate4:26jumped to 7.12%4:28from 6.97% last week, its highest level4:32since 2024, causing more borrowers to4:35now opt for riskier adjustable rate4:37mortgage loans. With more borrowers4:39opting for ARMS, the ARM share reached4:429.8%4:44up from 8.4% the week prior, putting it4:48considerably higher than where it was4:49during the pandemic when it was at 3%.4:53Yeah, that is pretty concerning. And I4:55know the housing market has been hitting4:57consumers pretty hard in the short term,5:00but also looking at the market right5:01now, SPY is 1.48%5:04off of all-time highs. And today, it5:07actually pulled back pretty hard,5:08falling by 0.72%.5:11And we saw something happen that was5:12pretty concerning today. We saw the spy5:15officially reject where it also rejected5:18on Friday, September 4th, and also on5:21August 28th. And this is also at the 7755:24to 776 resistance zone which has held up5:27multiple times. Now with this triple top5:29coming into play that is going to be a5:31huge level for tomorrow and for the next5:33few trading days. If we can see the spy5:36recover and test that resistance I would5:38not be surprised if we saw a breakout5:41occur as this would probably mean that5:43the China uh US trade talks ended up5:46going well and the meeting ended up5:48resulting in stocks moving higher. At5:50the same time though, there is a very5:52large zone of support in play down5:54around the high that was posted on5:56Friday, September 11th. And we can see5:58that that level is at 766 to 76650.6:02This is also a very large area where SPY6:04has bounced multiple times and if that6:06ends up breaking to the downside. Don't6:08be surprised if SPY trades towards the6:10bottom of its recent range closer to 7566:14to 758, if not even getting towards the6:17low that it posted around 750 whenever6:19the FOMC uh interest rate decision came6:22out last week and the market fell down.6:25I will say this though, the market is6:27still up considerably from where it was6:30just one week ago on Wednesday. So keep6:32that in mind. Even though the market's6:34down today, it's not like it's6:35necessarily crashing and burning quite6:37yet, but this was a pretty big day to6:40the downside.6:42Before we move on, I want to show you6:44guys something we haven't really broken6:46down on the channel before. A lot of you6:48ask how we map out our key support and6:50resistance levels and why price action6:52keeps getting held up at these specific6:54zones. This right here is the net gamma6:56exposure or GEX on SPY. Look right here6:59at this massive spike. That's the call7:02wall sitting pretty much right at 760.7:04That represents heavy dealer short7:06gamma, meaning market makers have to7:08hedge against price moving higher, which7:10essentially acts as overhead resistance.7:13Now, down here, this level is the gamma7:15flip, sitting around 773. When price is7:18above this level, dealer hedging absorbs7:20volatility and keeps price action7:22relatively controlled. But if price7:24breaks below the gamma flip, dealers go7:27short gamma, they're hedging flips and7:29volatility accelerates aggressively. If7:31we lose that level, expect high velocity7:34downside moves real fast. Looking at net7:37gamma exposure gives you the underlying7:39structural mechanics behind the7:40technical levels on your chart. And the7:42cleanest part about this is that I don't7:44even have to switch tabs or trade off a7:46clunky secondary broker window. We use7:49Trading View for all charting and Mumu7:51can connect directly to it so you can7:53trade through the charts. Trading View7:55voted Mumu as the best broker for stocks7:57in North America two years in a row in7:59both 2024 and 2025. Everything Tom just8:03showed from the GEX heat maps to order8:05flow execution is part of the Mumu8:07engine. It integrates advanced options8:10analytics, level three order depth, and8:12fundamental metrics into a single8:14platform. So you don't need five8:15different subscriptions. You can trade8:17stocks, options, ETFs, crypto, and8:20prediction markets all in one place.8:22Right now, Mumu is offering new users up8:24to $1,000 in Nvidia stock with the8:27qualifying deposit. They're offering an8:298.1% APY promotional rate on your8:32uninvested cash for two months. And for8:35the first 25 of you who set up and fund8:37an account with them, you'll get an8:39extra $149 stock cash reward to trade8:42with. scan the QR code right here on the8:45screen or click that first link down in8:47the description to lock it in. And8:49another thing to keep in mind is that8:51we're in that time of the month that has8:53historically been the worst for the8:55stock market. We can see with data going8:57back to 1950. You know, as we know,9:00September is a pretty rough month for9:02the stock market as it is, but9:04especially the end of September is where9:07a lot of the selling comes into play.9:09So, we don't have a lot of time left in9:11September, but also look out for this.9:13Another thing to look out for is that we9:15are now only 7 days away from the best9:18buying point during a midterm year. With9:21data going back to 1928, September 30th9:24has historically been the best average9:27buying point during midterm year. So,9:29that is some good news to look out for.9:31But another thing to keep in mind, too,9:33is we are seeing some interesting9:34changes with market leading stocks.9:37Nvidia's forward earnings multiple has9:40fallen below 17 times, putting the stock9:43near its cheapest valuation in more than9:45a decade. That's roughly half its 20259:48multiple and down from more than 259:50times earnings as recently as May,9:53despite stronger revenue and profit9:55growth. Even though Nvidia is the9:57largest traded public company, its10:00valuation is still much cheaper,10:02relatively speaking, than it was only a10:05decade ago. So keep this in mind. We10:07have a dynamic where companies are10:09making more and in some cases growing10:11more, but their stocks can be falling10:14with this. Yeah, that is something to10:16keep in mind, especially as some of10:18these AI stocks have been at crazy10:20valuations over the past few years. I10:22would not be surprised to see some of10:23those valuations continue to fall. But10:26also tomorrow, Costco will be reporting10:29earnings in after hours. So be ready for10:32this. Costco is a pretty important10:33earnings report because it could give us10:35an update on the state of consumer10:37spending along with the state of10:39inflation as well. So, watch out for10:41that along with the Trump G meeting as10:43that starts to play out. But Mike, I10:46think it's time to jump into the good10:48stuff, which are some setups and10:49predictions for tomorrow. And with my10:52first play, I'm looking at ticker symbol10:53LMND or Lemonade Inc. to the downside.10:57So, Lemonade is a digital insurance10:59company that offers renters, homeowners,11:01pet, car, and term life insurance via a11:04fully automated mobile app, replacing11:07traditional brokers in a way. Uh, its11:09business model relies on machine11:11learning algorithms to underwrite11:12policies in minutes and settle claims11:15instantly using a flat fee structure.11:17Anybody that's dealt with insurance can11:19know sometimes how long some of those11:21claims can end up playing out. But as we11:23can see, Lemonade has been falling down11:25quite a bit in the short term. And we've11:27been seeing a lot of stocks recently11:29falling under some critical zones of11:31support. And Lemonade is one of those.11:34Today's move really confirmed a drop11:36under this 48 to $50 support range where11:39it has held up actually since February11:42of 2026. It's actually bounced down here11:44like five or six times if you count it11:46up. And with this breakdown, I will be11:49looking for a continuate uh continued11:51move to the downside in the short term.11:53It fell down by 7% today. And this is a11:56trade specifically for the shirt for the11:59short term. I'm not necessarily looking12:01at uh you know, Lemonade to crash and12:03burn and fall all the way back down to12:0617 or $20 within the short term here.12:09But I do think for the next few days,12:11starting to look at this big gap fill12:13down to around 37 to 40 could definitely12:16be a good first target. Expedia, ticker12:20symbol XP, is on my downside radar as I12:24think it's pretty clear that a12:25tightening economy is already pressuring12:28discretionary spending, and travel's one12:31of the first categories that are going12:32to get cut. Higher gas prices raise the12:35all-in cost of driving, flying, maybe12:39boating around, which, you know,12:40directly impacts bookings through12:43Expedia. Uh, consumers facing elevated12:45fuel and living costs, delay or cancel12:47trips, and I think this is going to12:49negatively impact their business. And it12:52still appears that the US Iran war um12:55doesn't seem to be ending anytime soon.12:58The stock has been relatively weak in13:00the short term and it's already uh13:02confirmed a lot of selling from its13:04recent high around $340 per share. It's13:08still trading for around 260 and I13:10wouldn't be surprised if it fell more.13:12This is more of a broader macro trade13:15though. So Xedia can fall tomorrow or13:18maybe it'll take some more time. Either13:20way, this stock is on my downside radar.13:22Exp.13:24Yeah, this is a pretty awesome stock in13:26the travel sector to the downside right13:28now. And we also saw a recent big money13:30trade with RCL or Royal Caribbean Cruise13:33Lines that has been playing out13:34amazingly well too. As we can see some13:37of these travel stocks actually starting13:39to take a pretty big hit. But with the13:41overall market falling today and with13:43SPY moving down, I'm actually looking at13:45a play with SPY for tomorrow except it13:48involves a different stock and that13:50stock is going to be UVXY. But it13:53actually ties to the SPY overall. SPY13:56made a clear double bottom in the middle13:58and the end of the trading day today at14:00the 76650 support. Now, if this starts14:03to break down tomorrow morning or14:05tomorrow in the middle of the day, I14:07will look for a continuation down kind14:09of like what we saw today. Now, I don't14:11necessarily think tomorrow we'll see a14:1472% sell-off, but I do think that we can14:16take advantage of the downside move. You14:19could always look at spy put options or14:21put options on some influential tech14:23stocks that could be dropping with the14:25spy. But I really also like that UVXY14:27setup. You know, UVXY had a good move14:30today. It closed up by 2.47%.14:33But if we go at the low from open to the14:35high, it actually popped up 4%. And14:38sometimes whenever we see the market14:39drop, UVXY can have some insane runs.14:43Kind of like earlier this year whenever14:44it popped off as the Iran war conflict14:47kicked off. And also if we go back to14:49the liberation day crash in 2025, you14:52can see how UVXY really rallied off of14:54that. And even if we go further back to14:572018 and 19 and we start to look at how15:00UVXY moved whenever the US China trade15:03war officially kicked off, you know, it15:06made some pretty insane runs. So if15:08something happens between Trump and15:09China tomorrow, keep UVXY on the radar.15:12It could end up being a pretty good15:14play. But I would really like to see15:15some downside confirmation first.15:18>> Very interesting. Yeah, good point.15:20Another stock that's close on watch is15:22Dell, ticker symbol DL.15:25This is a stock that has been mentioned15:27a bit recently and it is uh very close15:30to its all-time highs still. It has had15:33an enormous AI driven run and looking at15:36its stock, it has been weakening a15:39little bit in the short term and I15:40wouldn't be surprised if it weakened15:42more. Uh we have seen some increased15:45talk about potentially slowing down AI15:48which whether or not that's true and to15:50what degree it might be true um I think15:54Dell is still trading at a pretty15:56aggressive valuation with a forward PE15:59around 21 to 22. Uh and I do like to see16:03this recent weakening as well. I think16:06in the worst case scenario where Dell16:08continues to rip higher, it can be a16:11relatively small loss. But in the event16:13there is a pullback, I wouldn't be16:15surprised if um the reward potentially16:18massively outweighs the risk. We will16:20see. The stock is trading around $55016:23per share right now. And if we did see a16:26real pullback, I wouldn't be surprised16:27if it got below 400, but that's also16:30something that'll probably take a bit of16:32time. with the overall setup playing out16:35with Dell right now. It's actually one16:36of the best technical setups that I've16:38seen to the downside with a lot of these16:40tech stocks that have been popping off.16:42You know, Dell was following a clear16:44trend line and it was actually breaking16:46out to new highs. But ever since this16:48pullback, it's now fallen under the16:50trend and today it actually confirmed16:52off of key resistance at 570, which is16:55definitely worrying for me in the short16:57term. I'll be watching it like a hawk,16:59Mike. But with our setups out of the17:01way, let's go ahead and jump into17:03today's momentum plays. And with my17:06first play or with the first play of the17:07day, I'm looking at PLTR to the upside.17:10Palunteer had a great run this morning.17:12And if it breaks out above $194,17:16continue watching it higher into17:17tomorrow. With the next one, we have17:19Exon Mobile, ticker symbol XOM, to the17:22upside. Yeah, energy did pretty well17:24this morning. And I like the way that17:26ZOM's setting up into the end of the17:28day. And there's clear intraday17:30resistance at 16150. So if it breaks17:32above 16150, watch for a breakout17:35tomorrow.17:36>> And then with the last one, we have Poet17:38Technologies, ticker symbol PO, to the17:41downside.17:42>> Yeah, Poet pulled back pretty hard here.17:44If it falls down under $7.80, watch for17:47a continued drop tomorrow as well.17:50>> These three stocks are on the radar for17:52potential continuations tomorrow. if and17:55only if they break through the levels17:56listed. These stocks are volatile, so17:59always protect yourself, use stop-18:00losses, and focus on making smart,18:02disciplined trading decisions above all18:04else. But besides that, let's jump right18:07into today's $1.8 million big money18:11trade. Today, we are looking at ticker18:13symbol JD. JD is one of China's largest18:17direct retailers and ecommerce18:19platforms. The trader here traded the 3018:22strike call options that expire on18:24December 17th of 2027. I think this is18:28very interesting as this is happening18:31right ahead of the Trump Xi summit. JD18:35is also near recent I guess you could18:37say the lower end of its range which is18:40interesting. These options are slightly18:42out of the money but they do have a lot18:43of time to them. So the trader here18:45appear appears to be positioning18:47themselves for a longerterm bullish18:51position. Uh Chinese stocks are of18:55course volatile but they do tend to move18:58in phases and like clusters like most of19:01the time especially over recent years19:03they performed like relatively poorly19:06but when there is real news these stocks19:09can run stronger than most other stocks19:12can. We can see back in August and19:14November of 2024, JD went from like $2719:18per share all the way up to like $48 per19:20share in a very short period of time.19:23So, interesting trade setup. I'm excited19:25to see how it does. And I like how it19:27has a lot of time to it. Yeah, that's19:30the one positive with this trade is the19:32amount of time that it has going out to19:34December of 2027. And this is going to19:36be a trade that you're going to have to19:38be very patient with. You know, even if19:40JD does fall in the short term and let's19:42say it falls down to test recent support19:45around $2450 to $25, that would be a19:48pretty negative drop. But there's so19:50much time to this trade that it could19:52easily come back by the time that it19:54expires or even well before then,19:56preferably, of course. But, um, overall,19:59it's going to be highly influenced by20:00this Trump G Summit, I'm sure. And if we20:03do see the summit, let's say, spark some20:05positivity, that would be amazing for20:07some of these China stocks that have20:09been beaten down in the dirt. And as we20:11know, sentiment with China and China20:13stocks haven't been the best as a lot of20:15these stocks have been falling down. And20:17if sentiment starts to pick up a little20:19bit, we could see some great recoveries.20:21And you know, the past couple of times20:22that JD bounced off of this lower zone,20:25it ended up ripping up around 39 to 40%20:28as it tested some critical zones of20:30resistance around 33 to 34. So, watch20:33for a potential recovery here. Even if20:36it runs up to like $31 within the next20:38like 6 months or so, this option will be20:41doing great and then you could even be20:42set up to scale out and maybe hold a few20:45contracts for the longer term as well.20:47>> Yeah. So, let's keep it close on the20:49radar. And if you are new to the20:50channel, welcome and consider20:52obliterating that subscribe button. For20:55every single trading day, we post brand20:56new videos just like this one covering20:59crazy multi-million dollar big money21:01trades, stocks to keep on the radar,21:03upcoming events, important information,21:06news, things to know about, past stats,21:08and so much more. It takes a long time21:10to make these videos each day, and if21:12you subscribe, you'll get them21:14recommended to you more often. So,21:16definitely consider subscribing. And21:18let's also give a giant shout out to21:19today's member of the day, Locked Pick,21:22who had some great gains with some Apple21:24put options today. Huge shout out to21:26you. Keep up the great work going21:28forward and it's awesome to see posts21:30like this one. Thank you guys so much21:33for watching and let's crush it in the21:35market tomorrow.
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