Transcript of The Stock Market Is Entering Its Worst Week…
StockedUp
0:00Next week is the 39th of the year, which0:02is historically the worst week of the0:04year for the S&P 500. Since 1950, it0:08averaged a half a percent loss and has0:10been positive less than 50% of the time.0:13Today, the US 30-year note yield rose to0:155.47%,0:17its highest level since June 2004. Trump0:21said he and China's President Xi want to0:23leave AI exactly where it is. And for0:26the first time in months, the US and0:28Iran might actually be nearing a deal as0:31US and Iranian negotiators spoke on a0:33Hormuz deal at the UN General Assembly0:36this morning. Today, we cover what to0:38know and where the action is right now.0:45US and Iranian negotiators in New York0:47are reportedly discussing a phase deal0:50to end the war. Starting with Iran0:52reopening the straight of Hormuz in0:54exchange for the US lifting its economic0:57blockade. Iran could also regain access1:00to frozen assets as part of the1:02agreement. This boosted the stock market1:04and pulled oil back. Earlier today1:07though, the Houthis launched another1:09round of attacks on Saudi Arabia, and1:12Saudi officials said they intercepted1:14six ballistic missiles targeting one of1:16the country's major Red Sea oil hubs.1:19Saudi Arabia also recently restarted its1:22East West pipeline after the September1:2411th drone attacks, but tanker loadings1:26are still delayed, preventing that1:28additional supply from fully returning1:31to the market. and Trump and Chinese1:33President Xiinping began their rounds of1:36all day meetings today. Treasury1:38Secretary Scott Besson said the US and1:41China have agreed to extend their trade1:43truce until January 10th, 2027, calling1:46it a placeholder more than a1:48breakthrough.1:50Trump also posted on Truth Social this1:52morning saying he and Xi want to leave1:55AI exactly where it is and that our1:57guardrail for AI becoming too dangerous2:00is the Department of Justice. Xi also2:02announced that China is sending two2:04giant pandas, Pingping and Fuan, to the2:07Zoo Atlanta as a gift to the American2:10people. We won't have all the details on2:12their meetings and state dinner2:14featuring tech CEOs until later this2:17week. So, make sure you're watching the2:18market closely as those reports come2:21out. But next week is week 39 of the2:24year, which has historically been the2:26worst week of the year for the S&P 500.2:29Since 1950, the index has averaged a2:32half a% loss during week 39 and has2:36finished the week positive less than 50%2:39of the time. While seasonality doesn't2:42immediately guarantee losses, history2:44suggests that this has consistently been2:46one of the more difficult stretches of2:48the year for stocks, making next week an2:50especially important one to watch.2:52Iran's Parliament speaker just openly2:55mocked the surge in US borrowing cost2:57after the 10-year Treasury yield crossed2:595.1% today. Glybuff posted on X saying,3:03"Happy 5.1% 10Y America." and claimed3:07Iran would push the US back toward 1970s3:10rates along with higher gas prices and3:13diesel shortages. Alongside the 10-year3:16hitting a high of 5.181%3:19today, the 30-year Treasury yield hit3:215.47%,3:23its highest since June of 2004 and has3:26now stayed above 5% for 79 straight3:29days, the longest streak since 2007. And3:33we all know what happened following3:342007. in 20ou into 2008. But the3:38sell-off is also spreading globally. The3:41average government bond yield worldwide3:43is now near 4%, its highest also since3:462007, with yields in countries like3:48France and Italy surging at the moment.3:51And here's a pretty scary prediction.3:53Former Layman Brothers trader Larry3:55McDonald is now claiming that we're in a3:58very similar setup to 1987 when bonds4:01were offering attractive returns right4:03before the Dow ultimately fell 23% in a4:06single session on Black Monday.4:09He noted that during the leadup to Black4:12Monday, bonds started to offer4:14equity-like returns, giving investors4:16more of a reason to hold bonds instead4:18of equities. And we are also now facing4:21a major concentration and breath problem4:24as Nvidia and Apple make up over 15% of4:28the S&P 500. That's the highest ever for4:30two stocks and well above the 9.1% peak4:34we saw with Microsoft and GE right4:36before the dot bubble burst. Also, a4:39large group of US businesses are pushing4:41back against Trump's proposed diesel4:44export restrictions. The US Chamber of4:46Commerce, American Petroleum Institute,4:49and dozens of other groups sent Trump a4:52letter warning that restricting exports4:54could actually reduce fuel production4:56and raise costs for American families.4:59And this letter comes after Trump said5:01on Tuesday that he has pushed his5:03administration to consider restricting5:06diesel exports as prices hit a record5:08$6.52 a gallon. Treasury Secretary Scott5:12Bessant also confirmed the5:14administration is studying whether5:15restrictions would even work or not.5:17While Energy Secretary Chris Wright5:19clarified and said, "Nobody wants a full5:22blanket ban on exports." Natural gas5:25futures had an unusual surge of over 9%5:28today after new inventory data showed US5:31supplies growing much slower than5:33normal. US natural gas inventories only5:36rose by 53 billion cubic feet last week,5:39less than its usual 76 billion. That5:42shrank the amount in storage above5:44normal from 118 billion to 95 billion5:47cubic feet. With inventories growing5:50slower than normal, concerns about5:52tighter natural gas supplies helped push5:54prices higher today. And if you want to5:56trade this, look at UNNG. It actually5:58just broke its downtrend today and6:00closed up over 6%. Looking at the SPY or6:04S&P 500 today, we could see that it6:06actually started moving up from market6:08open. But last night into this morning,6:11we actually saw the SPY dip down quite a6:13bit underneath key support that we6:15talked about yesterday at 76650.6:18And guess what? That 76650 area acted as6:22critical intraday resistance today. And6:24that's going to be a big level to6:25continue watching for tomorrow along6:28with intraday support from this morning6:30around 76350. It seems like the SPY is6:33very choppy as of right now and it's6:35kind of stuck within this overall range6:37from the low of pre-market today all the6:40way up to the high of day today around6:42769 which was also a huge level intraday6:45yesterday too. So SPY is uh testing a6:49lot of key resistances right now. And if6:51we can see a breakout past that 7696:54range, I think that that would be a good6:56bullish sign for tomorrow. But of6:58course, if we continue to see the spy7:00reject off of this level into tomorrow,7:02keep watching. A lot of critical7:04supports coming up like I talked about.7:06I think some of the biggest ones are, of7:08course, the low of day from today in7:10pre-market around 762 and of course the7:13intraday low around 76352.7:16So, uh those are a few levels to keep on7:18the radar for tomorrow. Just remember7:20that we will continue to get reports7:22coming out about Trump's uh meetings7:24with Xi and also that tech CEO dinner.7:27And if those end up boosting AI stocks,7:29I wouldn't be surprised if SPY even went7:31for a 770 break, moving up towards 7727:35to maybe even 775 if sentiment picks up7:38enough. Don't forget to destroy the7:41subscribe button as for every single7:43trading day, we post brand new videos7:45just like this one. It takes a long time7:47to make these videos and we cover7:48basically everything you need to know7:50and more for markets. We share setups to7:52look out for and even uh past stats as7:55well. If you subscribe, you'll get our7:57videos recommended to you more often.7:59But Tom, we are also only 6 days away8:02from historically speaking the best8:04buying point during a midterm year.8:07Again, with data going back to 1928,8:09September 30th has been the best average8:12buying point during midterm years. So,8:14of course, every year's different, but8:16it is an interesting stat to keep on the8:18radar. And the S&P 500 advanced decline8:21line also fell below its 200 day moving8:24average for the first time since8:26November of 2023. Previous breaks have8:29come near major market turning points,8:31including before the 2022 bare market,8:34during the COVID crash, and near the8:36bottom of the 2018 bare market. So, very8:38interesting. Yeah, it definitely is. And8:41looking at the economic schedule for the8:43rest of the week, we do have durable8:44goods data set to release tomorrow, 18:47hour before market open. And there's8:49even a Fed Williams speech very early in8:51the morning at 5:15 a.m. Eastern time.8:54So, watch out for those two events8:55tomorrow. I do think that those have8:57potential to move markets depending on8:59how the data is released, but I'm not9:01expecting anything too crazy. Of course,9:04looking at the earnings lineup, things9:05are all clear for tomorrow. So Mike,9:08let's go ahead and jump into our setups9:10and predictions. And with the first one,9:12I'm looking at ticker symbol NBIS to the9:16upside. Nibbius ended up popping up over9:198% today. This was a very nice intraday9:21run. It closed up around 7.5% though.9:25NBI has scored a major analyst upgrade9:27to outperform from BNP today, which9:30raised its price target from $ 260 all9:32the way up to $399,9:35alongside Bank of America reiterating9:37its buy rating with a $310 price target.9:41Analysts right now are highlighting9:43surging pricing power for Neocloud9:45providers as AI compute rental rates9:47continue to climb. And I know that9:49powering AI is going to be one of the9:52biggest hurdles right now. And Nibbius9:54has actually held up very well compared9:56to a lot of these other growth stocks9:58that I've seen recently pulling back a10:00lot. And some of these other examples10:02would be quantum stocks. Now obviously10:04these are two totally different sectors10:06but still kind of in that AI niche. Uh10:09Nibbius obviously being uh more of a10:11Neocloud provider is moving up very well10:13today and I love its strong correlation10:16to spy in the short term too. If we10:18continue to see the market recover and10:20have some positivity, I think that10:21Nibbius could test its recent resistance10:24here around 255 and then even go for a10:27continued breakout up to around 280, if10:30not even testing the all-time high10:32around $300 sometime soon. A lot of10:34these AI stocks are coming back very10:36strong in the short term. And Nibbius is10:39one of the stocks that's positioned very10:40well and one that hasn't pulled back a10:42ton either.10:44It has been a popular stock over the10:47past year and it certainly can move. So,10:49I will keep it on the radar as well.10:51Another stock that's still close on10:53watch is Dell, ticker symbol DE L. This10:56one has been mentioned quite a bit10:58recently to the downside and it's nice11:00to see this continued drop. Uh the stock11:02has had an enormous AIdriven run over11:06the past year or so. It's trading at a11:08fairly aggressive valuation uh with a11:11forward PE of around 21 times. Uh the11:14stock is overextended and there has been11:17a fair amount of selling pressure coming11:18in at this resistance and all-time high11:21around $600 per share. I like the11:23riskreward playing the downside here11:26where in the worst case where Dell keeps11:28running, I think the losses can be kept11:30relatively small. But in the event we do11:32see a pullback, whether it's specific to11:34Dell, whether it is an AIdriven11:37pullback, or whether it's just a general11:39profit taking in the market, maybe11:41caused by rising yields or anything11:43else, I think it offers a good11:45riskreward. Um, while Dell does have a11:48lot of short-term bearish momentum, this11:51is also more of a trade that can11:54continue to play out over the course of11:56multiple weeks and months. If we do see11:58a pullback, I wouldn't be surprised for12:00it to be like a substantial drop. So, it12:03is still on the downside radar. And with12:05how much Dell has actually risen, even12:07within 2026 alone, even if it drops down12:10to $400, it will still be up well over12:13100% this year. So, I really think that12:16Dell is a bit overextended as well,12:18Mike. And the technical setup is12:19beautiful with that uptrend coming to an12:22end recently as well. But with my next12:24play, I'm looking at Meta to the upside.12:27I know Meta has been pretty popular in12:29the short term as they released a new12:30personal AI agent, Muse, and Mark12:33Zuckerberg even unveiled new nextG AI12:36glasses and lightweight VR glasses that12:38are built to run Muse hands-free12:41directly in everyday wear. And I think12:43that that could end up being pretty big12:45here for Meta. And obviously investors12:47think so too. You know, if we look at12:49the daily chart, Meta has really12:51rebounded. I know a lot of traders were12:53calling for Meta to crash and burn as12:56even just a few months ago, it was12:57trading around $540 and was over 30%13:01from highs. But if we actually zoom out13:04on Meta's chart, you can see that it's13:06been following a pretty clear uptrend13:08over the past few years. And while that13:10uptrend tested hard recently, it ended13:12up holding up. So, uh, I'm watching Meta13:15closely up into the all-time high, which13:17is right around $796. It's just under13:20$800. So, if we could see this push up13:23towards $800 tomorrow, I do think that13:25there's potential for it to even break13:27and continue running. This is a wild13:30stock and sometimes when Meta gets on13:32these uptrends, it can last for a long13:34time. So, keep watching Meta in the13:36short term, there's a lot of hype, I13:38don't see any reason in uh going against13:41the wave until we see some true13:42confirmation back down.13:44>> Another stock that's close on the radar13:46is Rocket Lab, ticker symbol RKLB. It's13:49a space company and it had a really13:51solid day today. There was some news13:53where Redwire, Rocket Lab, and Firefly13:56have won spots on a Space Force contract13:59worth up to $981 million. Um, these14:03stocks have been quite volatile over the14:06past year and are at a point where they14:08are off significantly from highs. We can14:12see Rocket Lab is trading for around $7314:15per share. And back in May of 2026, it14:19was trading for roughly $150 per share14:22and it's still in a very strong broader14:25longer term uptrend. So, it's definitely14:28a good sign that uh good good sign to14:30see where it's at currently. I think the14:33news definitely helps as well. And the14:35space industry is uh clearly like a14:38growing industry and an industry that14:40has some real hype to it, especially14:42with everything that SpaceX is doing,14:44but also competitors all around the14:46world. Um, looking at Rocket Lab, I14:48think it's in play as it has good14:50momentum. I like to see it holding that14:52support around $60 per share and I think14:55it'd be great if the stock can continue14:57to maintain this momentum. And if it15:00does, I wouldn't be surprised if it got15:03closer to that resistance around $87 per15:05share and then potentially eventually15:08retested 93 and 100. We shall see. Yeah,15:11this stock is absolutely crazy. And15:13whenever we do see the space sector and15:16especially Rocket Lab have good news15:18like this, sometimes it has the15:19potential to run up in some insane ways.15:22So, I will keep it on the radar. I am15:24also highly fascinated by the space15:27sector and think that these stocks can15:28be awesome to trade. But let's go ahead15:30and jump into today's momentum plays.15:33And with the first one, Mike, we're15:35looking at ticker symbol Fly, Firefly15:38Aerospace. Another one of these space15:40stocks here. If Firefly breaks out above15:42$236015:44tomorrow, look for a possible day trade15:46to the upside.15:48>> With the next one, we have MOA, ticker15:50symbol MRNA, also to the upside. MONA15:53just continues to fly in the short term.15:55If they can break out above 196, keep15:58watching MOA to the upside as well. And16:01then with the last one, we have MGM16:02Resorts, ticker symbol MGM, to the16:05downside. MGM had a massive pullback16:07yesterday in after hours. If we can see16:10it actually break that after hours low16:12around 3330, keep watching MGM down. It16:15had a massive drop and closed down over16:1810%.16:19These three stocks are on the radar for16:21potential continuations if and only if16:24they break through the levels listed.16:26These stocks are volatile, so always16:28protect yourself. Use stop- losses and16:30focus on making smart, disciplined16:32trading decisions above all else. We16:34have a lot of great free information in16:36the Stockup Discord group. So, check out16:38the link in the description down below16:41for that. But let's also jump right into16:43today's $614,00016:47big money trade. Today we are looking at16:49ticker symbol CCC. The trader here16:53traded the $7.50 strike call options16:56that expire on December 18th of 2026.17:00This company provides cloud software and17:03AI tools that power the auto insurance17:05industry and collision repair ecosystem.17:08The stock has been moving pretty17:10strongly over the past few months, but17:13it also is in a broader term downtrend17:16as well. Looking at these options, they17:19are fairly close to the money and they17:21do have a fair amount of time to them.17:23The trader here is positioning17:24themselves to really benefit if the17:27stock continues this shorter term17:28uptrend and makes a strong move by the17:31end of the year. I like how the options17:34are fairly close to the money. And I17:36like how there's a lot of time to them17:38as well. Plus the recent um I guess you17:41could say uh uptrend that we've been17:43seeing. I think it's also in a good17:46industry for this environment as17:48anything AI related has done pretty17:51well. Of course, you know, each17:53company's different though. Uh17:54interesting trade setup. It's not the17:56biggest big money trade we've ever seen.17:59Um but, you know, it's not the uh18:01smallest or most speculative one we've18:03ever seen either.18:04>> Yeah. And with it being an AI company18:06tied to kind of the insurance industry,18:08it's going to move a bit differently18:10than other AI stocks, of course. But it18:12is good to see it, you know, recovering18:14back up in the short term. And if we18:16actually look at the overall broader18:18downtrend that Mike was mentioning here,18:20we can see that this stock actually18:22recently broke out of said downtrend and18:25is now officially confirming off of it18:27at that $6 support recently. And18:30something that's awesome about that $618:32support level is it lines up with peaks18:34back in March of this year and even in18:36July of this year as well. So really18:38watch this level in the short term. If18:40we continue to see this stock bounce, I18:42think that it could perform pretty well18:44over the next few months into the end of18:462026. This isn't necessarily a trade18:49where, you know, the the traders looking18:51for this stock to rise on a multi-year18:53horizon or anything like that, but if it18:56does continue this uptrend, it could18:57easily uh break out above $8 and get in19:00the money pretty easily. That would be19:02the first big area of resistance that I19:04would watch though for on the way up19:06would be that $8 point. And if we do see19:08a major uptrend take place, I wouldn't19:10even be surprised if it came up to test19:129 or 10. But again, we would need to see19:14a pretty good breakout for that. Yeah.19:17So, let's keep it close on the radar.19:19And let's also give a giant shout out to19:21today's member of the day, Hose B in the19:24Stocked Up Discord, who had some great19:26gains today. Uh he said $1,200 on SPY19:29and Dell put options. So, huge shout out19:31to you. Keep on rolling. It's awesome to19:33see posts like this one. We only have19:35one more trading day left the week,19:37guys. Let's make it count. Don't forget19:39to keep your eyes open, of course, for19:41Trump Xi news, but also for any Iran war19:45related news as well as that has been19:48having a big influence on the market,19:50not only just uh this year, but19:52especially today. So, keep your eyes19:53open. Thank you guys so much for19:55watching and let's crush it in the19:57market tomorrow.
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