Transcript of Get Ready: the REAL Gold Move is Starting...
TraderNick
0:00A crash in the AI world could be a crash0:03upwards in the price of gold. Let me0:06explain.0:08In the last few days, we've seen0:09something interesting happening. When we0:11look at tech stocks, here's QQQ. This is0:13the NASDAQ. You can see it is moving0:16lower here. And things get more0:17interesting when we look at0:18semiconductors or the socks index or the0:21Cosby. These are all techfocused memory0:24and semiconductor kind of areas of the0:27stock market. And as odd as it might0:29sound, this is super connected to what's0:31going on in gold. Despite high0:33inflation, we saw gold tank lower but0:36find support and rally sharply here now0:39back above this downward trend line that0:41we've been watching and potentially0:43putting in what looks to be a solid0:44bottom. Of course, there is a lot of0:46overhead resistance and if you are a0:48bull or bear watching gold, the spot to0:51watch, I think, is this 4200 to 42200:54area. If that level gets broken to the0:56upside, I think that may actually be a0:58signal that gold's bottom could be in1:01for the time being. That said, I want to1:04talk a little bit about why this is1:06connected to the AI trade because right1:08now markets are heavily trading off of1:10this current narrative, which is the AI1:14trade is under a little bit of pressure1:17here. You see parts of the stock market1:19seeing a little bit of selling pressure,1:21specifically the NASDAQ. Now, how is1:24this connected to gold? Well, let's keep1:26it really simple. If people are freaking1:28out about what is going on in big tech1:30land, if tech, semiconductor, all that1:32stuff is under pressure, well, we can1:35look at what that might do. Well, it1:37might send investors into a safe haven1:39area of the market like gold or bonds.1:43And these things are moving kind of in1:44lock step because the demand for1:47something like bonds where people are1:48now able to lock in, you know, 5%1:51passive return with risk-free rates. I1:53mean, these are this is attractive to a1:55lot of investors, especially if the1:57alternative is staying invested in tech2:00stocks that are maybe causing a little2:02bit of concern. Like here's the reality.2:04Tech stocks have been remarkable the2:06last 5 years. It's very possible that a2:09lot of people who have ridden this ride2:11to the upside are like, "Hey, let's2:13let's take some gains off the table and2:15now that bonds and and you know, gold2:17are looking relatively attractive, maybe2:19we allocate there a little bit." I think2:21without over complicating it, that might2:23be what's going on here. You have yields2:25that have been very high, very juicy2:28returns here, 5.3% for a lot of people2:31to just park money passively and return2:335.3%. It's fairly attractive as opposed2:36to having all cash or all available2:39capital parked in, you know, the AI2:41trade. And I think that the drop in2:43stocks exactly is why you are getting2:47sort of an acceleration in interest in2:49the bonds world as well as precious2:52metals because precious metals like2:54lower yields. That's kind of where it's2:55connected right now is yields are moving2:58lower. Expectations from the Fed to hike3:00rates are still elevated overall, but3:02longerrun expectations of inflation and3:05growth may be moderating a little bit,3:08sending the 10-year yield a little bit3:09lower. And let's just do a quick pulse3:11check of the economy. Jobs data has been3:13coming in a little all over the place,3:15but a little soft recently. Nothing red3:17flag massive alarm signals, but the jobs3:20market has been cooling for a couple3:22years now. For example, here's Jolt's3:24job openings in the United States over3:25the last 3 years, continuously sort of3:28cooling down. Not in dire straits, end3:31of the world type of jobs market3:33environment, but certainly cooling. I3:36mean, worth mentioning unemployment3:37rates still at just 4.2% and3:39unemployment claims are fairly tame at3:42just about 200K. Obviously, this would3:44be more worrisome if this was3:46skyrocketing. And if you want to talk3:48about a situation where gold really gets3:49bullish, this would be something to3:51watch would be a sudden very sharp spike3:54in unemployment claims. But here is3:56something else that I think is actually3:57kind of interesting. Inflation this week3:59was pretty fairly hot. Now, not only was4:03expect inflation expected to rise here4:05this week. Uh you can see that the red4:07line here represents CPI forecast. So4:10expectations this week were for4:12inflation to rise. But inflation rose4:14even more so than expected on both a4:16consumer price index basis as well as on4:19a producer price index year-on-year4:21basis. Look at this 6.3% and I believe4:25it's somewhere around 9% is the rise in4:28gas prices. Right? We are seeing gas4:31prices sharply higher on a month over4:34month basis. And this is pretty rough.4:36The AI summary here is giving this a4:38grade F. Basically a not great inflation4:42report. Energy is marked as a major4:44driver, services and overall. But here's4:47the thing, it's not just inflation4:49that's coming from oil prices. Core4:52final demand incl excluding sorry, food4:54and energy, which is, you know, oil and4:56gas and all the volatile stuff.4:59Excluding that, we still saw a sharp5:01rise.5% month overmonth. So inflation is5:04truly a hot reading this week. By the5:06way, if you want to try out the tool5:07that I'm using, it's called EdgeFinder,5:09and it's a macro screening tool for the5:11average everyday retail trader who wants5:13to implement fundamentals into their5:15trading setups. And what our tool really5:17does well is not only shows you all this5:19data in one spot, but it also scores all5:22this data, directing you to ideas that5:24are most pressing right now in terms of5:27a macro fundamentals plus sentiment5:29reading basis. So for example, this is a5:32current list of things that I am5:33watching on my own trading uh that have5:36strong conviction either bullish or5:38bearish based on trend and sentiment5:40analysis as well as macro5:42fundamentals/economic5:43data. This tool does the heavy lifting5:45for my fundamental analysis so that I5:47can focus on the charts and use this as5:49sort of my confluence tool. And if you5:51don't have access to it and would like5:53to try it out, scan the QR code that you5:54see on the screen right now, and that'll5:56give you some information on how you can5:57try the tool and explore our free course5:59on how to use it to find better trades.6:01Speaking of trades, let's talk about one6:03that I am in currently. I am in a6:05Russell short position and although it6:07took a bit of heat, it looks like it's6:08trying to come back here to the6:09downside. I have a short position.6:11Russell is one of the stronger readings6:13here on EdgeFinder and uh it's been a6:16bearish reading for a little bit of6:17time. So, here's the Russell 2000 on the6:19new top setups indicator. And you can6:21see that it's been bearish the last few6:22months and still getting a solidly6:25bearish score. I think that this6:27downtrend here in the Russell is set to6:29potentially continue to the downside.6:31And if we zoom in a little bit more6:33here, if we take a look at like the6:353month basis, we can see this a little6:36bit cleaner. It's been pretty spot-on6:38with the bearishness. And I mean, it's6:41been bearish since like mid August and6:43persistently. So, I really like when I6:45see these sorts of heavily heavily kind6:48of bearish readings within EdgeFinder6:50mapping out with a nice price6:52depreciation. And again, I think that6:54the Russell, which specifically I'm6:56trading IWM, uh I think it has more6:59downside in the here and now. Taking a7:01look at the 4hour chart, we have a level7:02of past support potential resistance7:05that I think could ultimately hold here.7:07But uh as always, we want to keep an7:10idea on the on the backlog in case we're7:13completely wrong on this. So there's an7:15old expression in markets, which is if7:18you're early, you're still wrong,7:21especially when you're actively trading,7:22right? And what I mean by this is that7:24let's say the Russell moves higher here,7:27uh and then, you know, ultimately comes7:29down later. I would still say that I was7:31wrong in my thesis here about basically7:34seeing some kind of response or bearish7:37reaction to this area here. And one7:39thing if you've watched my channel for a7:40while, you know about my style is I keep7:42relatively tight stops and I'm wrong7:44often because of it, right? I'm fully7:46aware that my win rate is fairly low.7:49But every once in a while, I catch very7:51large winners to the downside or to the7:54upside by simply following my strategy7:56and my plan and looking for high7:58conviction setups and letting them run8:00when I'm correct about them. In terms of8:02positions that I'm in, I am giving this8:04update here a little bit later. It is8:06about an hour and a half since I8:07initially sent this video to the editor.8:09Uh, but we are looking here at the8:11Russell 2000. This is one of my larger8:14positions currently. I'm short IWM and8:17currently floating around a 1% uh in8:20terms of actual price movement from my8:22entry on the Russell 2K. Uh I have my8:25stop loss here above structure and I8:28just wanted to share this here because8:29this is probably in terms of where I am8:32at with markets probably one of the8:34stronger signals or readings that I8:36currently have. EdgeFinder has a very8:38bearish reading citing specifically both8:41technicals. Crowd sentiment is bullish8:43on the Russell, which I find8:45interesting, and macroeconomic score is8:48very bearish here within Edgefinder. Hot8:50inflation this week, cooler than8:52expected economic growth and jobs market8:55data that was a little bit weak. All of8:56that culminating into a very bearish8:59reading within EdgeFinder. I saw the9:01pullback, I took the short, and here we9:02are. I just figured this is a good9:03example for those of you guys who are9:05interested in Edgefinder to see what it9:07looks like in, you know, real time. It's9:10a setup that I took because EdgeFinder9:12had, you know, pretty clear conviction9:13across most of our metrics. The9:15technical setup took place and I9:17executed the trade from here. The plan9:19is to look to see if we can break9:21through those lows. If that happens,9:22I'll be looking to take my stop loss and9:24trail it into profit to see how far this9:26thing wants to potentially run. Today's9:28video is sponsored by Ola Prime. Whether9:30you're a futures trader, a forex trader,9:33a gold trader, whatever you are, Ola9:36Prime has one of the widest selections9:38of trading account types for their9:40traders. 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So,10:18if you're interested in exploring the10:19various account types offered by Ola10:21Prime and interested in getting that10:23extra discount, use that promo code and10:25the link in the description down below10:27to get 20% off any of their account10:29types. As always, I want to issue a word10:32of caution. Please only consider getting10:34funded or trying to get funded if you10:37already have skills in your trading and10:39are simply looking to scale it up to the10:41next level. Prop firms are an excellent10:43way for experienced and skilled traders10:45who lack capital to potentially scale10:48things up. If you're interested in10:49exploring Ola Prime, use the link below10:51and take your time to review all of the10:53different terms and conditions to make10:55sure this is the right prop firm for you10:56and your trading style. Thank you to Ola10:58Prime for sponsoring today's video. Now,11:00back to the content. For example, a11:02couple weeks ago, I shorted gold and11:04pretty much caught the high point here,11:06held it all the way down, and then11:07ultimately exited the position when it11:09rallied back, breaking through11:11structure. But in order to catch that11:13short position, I had a couple attempts11:15on the long side that were not great.11:17So, I did catch the nice move lower when11:19EdgeFinder flipped bearish, but I11:21actually had a few long attempts prior11:23to that that did not work out great.11:25took a couple losses in a row and then11:27was able to make back and basically11:29break even on the two or three losses I11:31took before that on the short position.11:33Point being on my channel I try and keep11:35it real with you guys, tell you all the11:36ups and downs of what I'm going through11:37in my trading. And at the end of the day11:39when it comes to, you know, any system11:42or strategy, nothing is perfect, but11:44what I have found to work well is when11:46you have a high conviction idea uh to11:49let it run here and really kind of11:51stretch out to the upside or to the11:53downside. And that's where a lot of11:54times the best returns for my trading11:56comes from is from the select few trades11:59that go and keep going. Let's just say,12:01let's daydream for a second that this12:03had actually kept flooding the lows.12:05That would have been a monstrous profit12:08simply because I would have continued to12:10hold through that period. And so, as I12:13told you guys, I'm short the Russell12:142000 index. And that is currently a12:18trade that I'm in that may work out and12:20it may not work out. If it doesn't work12:22out, I will exit for a small loss. And12:24if it works out, if we do flood through12:26the lows and we have a really nice short12:28trade on our hands here, then my plan12:30will be to trail a stop-loss using12:32market structure. So let's say for12:34example, you get a flush through these12:36lows here and then we do something like12:38this. Right? In this circumstance, my12:41plan will be to take this stop-loss and12:43to trail it down locking in some gains12:46but not capping my gains. What do I mean12:48by that? Well, if basically from there12:50the Russell continues to move lower, I12:52don't want to exit the position too12:54early. For me, again, pros and cons to12:58every style of trading where I find my13:00the most success in my style of trading13:02is when I am right, letting it go13:05monstrously in one direction and keep13:07trailing that stop, but don't cap the13:10trade. That's a big thing for me that13:12and not as is not for everybody because13:14it sounds great when you say, "Oh, don't13:16cap the trade." But a lot of times what13:18that means is that you have like the13:20gold trade a situation where you know I13:23made great money on the gold short but13:25let's face it had I taken profits at the13:28lows which is hindsight 101. It's always13:31easy to say you should have done this or13:32you could have done that. Um but you can13:36always sort of see that with with a13:37trailing stop loss you inevitably end up13:39giving back some of the gains when price13:41reverses getting you out of the13:43position. I accept that. That's part of13:45the part of the pro and accepting the13:47con of my style of trading, right? If13:50I'm going to if I'm going to have the13:51upside of unlimited potential gains in13:53the situation that markets keep moving13:55in one direction with my conviction and13:57and things look good, um I also have to14:00accept the downside of that is that14:01sometimes you get whipped out of trades14:02or you don't take the full maximum14:05profit that you could have. Anyways, for14:07those of you guys who are watching gold14:08again, key levels to watch either a14:10break through the lows or break through14:11the highs. We are rangebound here as14:13anything and I think it's a little14:15little tricky to try and call uh which14:17way decisively gold is going from here.14:19And if I take a look at current reading14:21on edgeinder, you can see if we zoom in14:22here a little bit, the yellow uh I'm14:24sorry, the uh the yellow circle circling14:26this white kind of neutral reading on14:28edgeinder at this time tells me there's14:30just not a lot for me to do with gold14:32for the time being. Now, if we get some14:35more conviction in score, if we go14:36bullish, then perhaps I'm looking for14:38breakout trades. Uh, and if we go more14:40bearish, then I'm looking for breakouts14:42to the downside. Checking back in in14:44terms of other top trade setups that are14:46happening right now. I also have an14:48Ethereum short. I haven't talked about14:50this yet, so let's talk a little bit14:51about it here. Uh, I shared this trade14:53yesterday inside of the group. So, here14:54it is. I took a short position on14:56Ethereum. Price came back up into this14:58area of resistance. You can see it15:00actually surpassed my level here and15:02could totally, you know, again, if we15:04break out, I'm out of the trade. Cut it15:06for a loss. Same thesis as the Russell.15:08on a little bit more riskoff focus right15:10now and I do think that Ethereum is a15:12nice way to reflect that uh cautious15:15view that I currently have. Anyways,15:17worth mentioning that both the Russell15:19and Ethereum short positions were shared15:21inside of our Discord. If this is15:22something that you're interested in15:23getting access to, uh I'll leave a link15:25in the description down below to where15:27you can sign up and start receiving the15:28notifications of trades that I am taking15:30when I take them. Now, full context,15:33every time I take a trade or share, you15:36know, something that I'm doing in the15:37market, I also break down exactly why15:40the trade was was taken, right? And I15:42think this is important to to decipher15:44because a lot of services out there, you15:46just get this reading that's like, "Oh,15:48I sold something or I bought something."15:50Instead of just uh or or instead of15:52getting full concepts, breakdowns of why15:55the trade was taken, explanations so15:57that you can actually learn something15:58from the service that you signed up for.16:00If that sounds like it would be16:01beneficial to you, if you'd like to see16:02the trades that I'm taking when I take16:04them, the link can be found in the16:06description down below. Oh, and if you16:07have any questions about setting up a16:08payment plan to join the group, we offer16:10lifetime subscriptions, meaning you just16:12pay one time. You don't have to pay on a16:14recurring basis. Uh, but we also offer16:16to split that up into a threemonth plan16:18to make that more affordable. If that's16:19something you're interested in16:20exploring, scan the QR code that you see16:22on the screen right now. So, anyways,16:23the crypto short idea um is just one16:26that I'm looking for. Same kind of16:28concept as Russell. looking for a bit of16:30a sell-off in uh risk assets. I'm still16:33in the camp of thinking that this stock16:35market has a little bit more room to to16:37roll over. And I think that with that,16:39you'll get some kind of consolidation to16:42the downside or cool off in a lot of16:44areas. I want to be clear though, you16:46know, this is the most bearish positions16:47I've had in a long time. I haven't had I16:50know it sounds it's not that bearish,16:52but I have two short positions that are,16:54you know, decent sized positions to the16:56downside downside. And um I I have not16:59been bearish on stocks in quite a while.17:02But let me defend my reasoning just a17:04little bit here. So I mentioned I've17:06ranted recently in my videos how17:07important it is to have systematic17:10trading going on. And what I mean by17:11that is having a hard rule set that you17:15stick to in terms of what you trade, why17:18you trade it, what you do with your17:19positions to give you clarity in all of17:21the chaos that is trading. It's really17:23easy to make emotional decisions and17:25trade off the top of your head as we've17:27been talking about on the channel17:28recently. Um, but I want to talk a17:31little bit about because I think it's so17:32it's maybe useful to some of you guys. I17:35don't know if it is. Um, it's useful17:37that I break down in detail my exact17:40strategy system, etc. How I'm doing this17:43because I'm hoping that it gets you17:45thinking about how you're approaching17:46the markets. Let me just tell you really17:48quick. I get all the time, "Hey, Nick,17:51should I buy or sell the dollar? or17:52should I buy or sell gold? Should I buy17:53or sell NASDAQ? All the time comments17:56like that flood in. And I know this is a17:58really annoying tongue-in-cheek cheeky18:01answer to give, but this is my authentic18:03genuine answer to that question. What18:05does your strategy tell you to do? Like18:07genuinely, if you are wondering, uh18:09gosh, should I should I buy gold or18:11should I sell? Stop. Stop trading right18:13now. You shouldn't be asking those18:15questions. You should be following a18:18system that tells you binary buy, sell,18:22hold, or do nothing, buy, sell, trail18:26stops. If you don't have that, I'm18:28telling you, you will not be profitable.18:30Chasing your tail, wondering, should I18:32sell something? Should I buy something?18:34Oh, should I take profits? That's not18:36trading. That's gambling. Trading,18:39successful trading is systematic. You18:41have a rule set. So if I if I impact one18:44trader out there who is listening today18:46and says honestly to themselves, you18:49know, Nick, actually you're right. I am18:51kind of just trading in every direction18:53and I'm just chasing my tail and I don't18:55have anything systematic or consistent.18:57I change what I'm doing every week. Then19:00I'm speaking directly to you right now.19:02Help yourself out. Stop doing that and19:05take some time to either switch to demo,19:08whatever you need to do, but build a19:10system. Test that system. Learn how to19:12back test and I promise you, you will19:14have way more clarity than you have ever19:16had in your trading. That what you're19:18doing, if that's you, I I know I'm19:20speaking directly to someone who is19:22like, gosh, Nick, you're calling me out19:24right now. I'm speaking to you right now19:25because I'm telling you that is19:27exhausting and it does not end well.19:29Like, if you want to be profitable, if19:31you want to, if your goal in watching19:33these videos and learning how to trade19:35and building a system is to look back in19:38three years from now and be like, I19:39figured it out. I'm doing much better.19:40Do you want to know how you get to that19:42point? You don't get to that point19:43chasing your tail and changing your19:45strategy and buying and selling just off19:47the top of your head. You get to that19:49point by, you know, uh what's the19:52expression? Um locking down the hatches19:55and build a system and and follow your19:57rules over and over and over. Like19:59that's what profitable trading looks20:00like. So, if you're not doing that,20:02let's get you there. How do you get20:03there? Build a system or follow a rule20:06set. We have a lot of people who use our20:07tools, EdgeFinder, to add some concrete20:11mechanisms to their trading. So, I am20:13short the Russell not because I woke up20:16and I was like, you know what, I hate20:17the Russell. I'm going to short it.20:18Right? That's that's not what I'm doing.20:20I have a system. I have a set of rules20:22here that tell me, okay, generally20:25speaking, the technicals look bearish.20:27Sentiment looks bullish. The crowd is20:30very bullish on Russell. I'll show you20:31that in just a second. and macro data20:34points that we track here within20:35edgefinder are generally pointing20:37bearish. That has been a really20:39phenomenal call from edgefinder is to be20:42bearish Russell systematically following20:44what we've got here. Bearish has been20:46the play and that has been a remarkable20:48idea over the last few weeks and months.20:52Now here I'm going to show you guys20:53something else here. So just a high20:55level let's break this down. Economic20:57growth we saw softer than expected20:59purchasing managers index right? We got21:01a forward-looking on uh read on the21:03economy that was a little soft both in21:05the services and manufacturing part of21:06the economy. Also, inflation this week21:09was red-hot. This is bearish for for21:11small cap companies that require21:13borrowing, right? Higher borrowing21:15costs, cuts directly into their margins.21:18Again, software picked up on that. The21:20jobs data was soft. Non-farm softening21:22up. Could we have a little bit of21:24slowdown in the economy coming in21:26addition to inflation? Well, who does21:28really bad in that environment? software21:31says Russell, right? So, that's been the21:33idea the last few weeks. And again, I21:35know I keep pointing out how how good21:36this has been, but this is a really good21:38example. This is what we're looking for.21:40This is what the system looks for,21:43right? So, when I talk about the system,21:45the edgeinder is the system that, you21:48know, consistently helps to spot these21:50sorts of ideas that we can then use in21:53our analysis to potentially find better21:55setups. Okay, so I've been limiting this21:57little special announcement here to post22:0020 minutes on my videos. So, we have22:03I've been saying it uh subtly. We have a22:05Black Friday sale coming on. I want to22:07tell you this because people who watch22:08my videos to the end like this. I thank22:12you very much for your your regular22:14support and watching of my videos. Um22:16but I also want to mention that we have22:17our Black Friday sale coming. It's not22:19started yet. So, um, not ready just yet,22:22but we are going to be doing the22:24biggest, best discount we have ever done22:26for EdgeFinder. So, if you've been22:28thinking about getting the EdgeFinder,22:30here is a couple things that I would22:31encourage you to do. First, follow our22:34Telegram channel. We will be posting22:36updates there. The link will be down22:38below in the description. Second, I want22:40to tell you about one of the offers that22:41we've got thanks to one of our sponsors.22:43So, if you're a funded trader or you22:44want to be a funded trader, here's some22:46details. first ever. You're the first22:48one to hear it. We're giving away 50K22:50accounts with the EdgeFinder sale. We've22:54never done this before. I'm so excited.22:56We're giving away 50K eval accounts to22:59the first number of people who purchase23:02during our Black Friday event. Okay? So,23:04if you've been thinking about getting23:05EdgeFinder anyways, first of all, you're23:07going to get the lowest price we've ever23:09done on EdgeFinder, you know, for a long23:11time in terms of biggest discount we've23:12ever done, plus a 50k eval eval account.23:17Okay, finally, how can you lock in your23:19spot on that so that you can be one of23:22the people who get those 50k accounts?23:23Because we have a limited count. We can23:24only give away a couple. Um, here's how.23:27Message us on our website. Again, I know23:29I'm going now very specific. Go to our23:31website right here, a1enttrading.com.23:34If you want to lock in your spot, chat23:36with us right here. Let someone from our23:38team know that you would like one of23:40those spots and you want to be one of23:41the first people when the sale drops to23:43take advantage of that. Someone from our23:44team, Drew or Emily, can keep you posted23:48on that situation so that you don't miss23:50it and you are one of the people that23:51gets the free account with the super23:53discounted edgeinder. Trading23:55fundamentals can be a lot of hard work,23:57but we actually made a pretty cool free24:00Telegram channel where we are publishing24:02constantly updates on what is going on24:05from a macro fundamentals perspective.24:07And no, it's not AI. It's not written by24:09a robot. It's written by a real person24:11on our team. His name is Allan. He puts24:13together a report each day on what is24:15going on in things like gold, currency24:17pairs, commodities, indices, etc. on a24:20global financial fundamental analysis24:22basis. It's a really cool newsletter24:24where you can basically stay on top of24:26things by reading for like a minute per24:28day. If that would be interesting to you24:30to join the free Telegram channel, there24:32is a link in the description down below24:34on this video that you can join and get24:36into the action there. We also offer24:38special discount perks for our products24:41as well as for funded accounts and for24:44brokerages, etc. And we also do some24:46giveaways as well. So definitely take a24:48second to join the Telegram channel in24:50the description down below. I also want24:52to take a second to just genuinely thank24:53you for supporting my content here. Make24:55sure to subscribe and hit the thumbs up24:57button if you have not already. And I do24:59hope that more videos in the future will25:01continue to help you on your trading25:02journey. Good luck. Thanks for watching.
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