Transcript of You Can’t Make This Up: Markets Face a Yield & Oil Spiral
StockedUp
0:00You can't make this up. The US Treasury0:02announced this morning that it's0:04tripling its long-term bond buybacks to0:06$6 billion despite that news. Yields are0:10still rising with the 10-year now0:12approaching a 100 basis point increase0:14since the Iran war began and now on0:17track to go above 5% by next week. Today0:20we cover why stocks are falling, what to0:23know, and where the action is right now.0:29Since last Friday, Iran has fired0:31ballistic missiles at a US aircraft0:33carrier, Navy destroyers, and at least0:36one Marine ship, and claims to have0:38struck two US Navy destroyers. Sentcom0:41said that all IRGC attempted attacks0:44have failed though. And in response to0:46these attacks on US ships and an air0:48base in Jordan, the US said it destroyed0:5110 Iranian tankers over the past week,0:53destroying five of them on Tuesday that0:56Sentcom claimed were part of a0:58multi-billion dollar shadow network used1:00to fund the IRGC and its regional1:03proxies. In turn, Iran attacked 10 ships1:06near the straight of Hormuz on1:08Wednesday, its largest wave of shipping1:10attacks since the war began in February.1:13Iran threatened to strike 20 targets for1:15every two or three attacks against Iran.1:18And Brent crude is above $100 a barrel1:21for the first time since July. And1:23diesel prices are at a record $5.94 a1:26gallon, now up 72% over the last 91:29months. Ticker symbol C R A K tracks the1:33companies that refine oil into gasoline,1:35and it's breaking out to new all-time1:37highs. And if you're following the war1:39with Iran, it might be worth keeping on1:41the radar. And by the way, shout out to1:44everyone who made money on this, we and1:46especially Mike has been talking about1:48it a lot this year and especially the1:50past couple of months. In even bigger1:53news, the US Treasury just announced1:55that it is tripling its long-term bond1:58buybacks to $6 billion. Yet, Treasury2:01yields continued to climb following the2:04announcement. The program has gone from2:06doubling purchases to now officially2:08tripling them. But so far, that still2:11hasn't been enough to bring yields2:13lower. The Treasury is buying older,2:15less liquid, long-term bonds and2:18replacing them with shorter term debt.2:21The US 10-year Treasury yield has now2:23climbed about 4.85%2:26for the first time since November of2:282023, rising roughly 15 basis points2:31from its pre-announcement level. And2:34since the Iran war began, the 10-year2:36yield is now approaching a nearly 1002:38basis point increase as higher oil2:41prices and inflation concerns continue2:43putting pressure on the bond market. Of2:46course, this is affecting the stock2:47market as well. And if these pressures2:49continue, the 10-year yield could2:51potentially move above 5% as soon as2:54next week, which would mean even higher2:56borrowing costs for consumers, home2:58buyers, and businesses. And Treasury3:01Secretary Scott Bessant framed his3:04department's recent bond buyback program3:06expansion as a tactical measure to slow3:09sharp moves and prevent negative3:11sentiment from taking hold in the bond3:13market rather than an attempt to3:15artificially manipulate prices. And3:17yesterday when he was speaking to3:18currency traders, he said, "I am the3:21house now and you can bet against me if3:23you want." [laughter] And the Chinese3:25central bank officially matched its3:27largest monthly gold purchase since3:30October 2023 as it purchased another 203:33tons of gold in August. This marked its3:3622nd consecutive month of buying, and3:39China has now added 80 tons of gold to3:41its reserves in 2026, compared with just3:4429 tons during all of 2025. And gold3:48mining margins surged 134%3:51year-over-year in Q1 of 2026 to a record3:55$3,0763:56per ounce, far outpacing the 70%4:00increase in gold prices since March of4:022024. Miners's margins have more than4:05tripled while gold prices have roughly4:07doubled, significantly boosting4:09profitability throughout the entire4:11industry. What a time in the market. And4:14this week is still going to be pretty4:16action-packed. Tomorrow, 1 hour before4:18the market opens, PPI data will release,4:21followed by existing home sales data 304:24minutes after the market opens. The PPI4:27data definitely can bring in some extra4:28volatility, but what will really be the4:31event of the week will be on Friday as4:34the CPI inflation report will release 14:36hour before open. This will be4:38especially important heading into this4:41month's FOMC interest rate decision.4:44Friday will be a big day because we're4:47going to get an update on the level of4:48inflation and it's going to affect4:50whether the Fed holds rates steady or4:53hikes them. Looking at the S&P 500 right4:56now, it is 2.18% off of all-time highs.5:00Tom, what are you seeing on the charts?5:02We started downtrending on Friday of5:04last week and that downtrend continued5:07to play out into the trading day today,5:09especially around market open or in the5:11middle of the day as we started to sell5:13off a bit harder towards a major support5:16zone. Now, the support zone that is5:17coming up though is going to be very5:19important to watch for. We can see a5:21recent double bottom very close to 759505:24to 760. Now the 76040 was a previous5:28all-time high. And as we get to this5:30zone anywhere between 75950 and I would5:34even go as high to say 7 uh 761, uh5:38we're going to have to be very mindful5:39that we could see the spy bounce5:41anywhere between this range. But5:43something that we have also been seeing5:44play out over the past week is of course5:47the downtrend that is taking hold. And5:49we could see the spy attempt to push5:51this downtrend and end up uh testing it5:54for an eventual breakout to the upside5:56like towards 765 or higher if we do see6:00sentiment shift back to the upside a6:02little bit. Now I will say 765 and 7686:05are going to be two major resistances6:08that I would love to see break before6:10truly becoming bullish on the spy in the6:12shorter term. There's still a lot6:14hitting the stock market right now and6:16traders are still very fearful as we see6:18yields rise. Yields rising in the middle6:20of the day today is what really caused6:22the majority of that intraday selloff.6:25And if we do see 760 breakdown, watch6:27for 758 and 756 just under there. On one6:32hand, the S&P 500 is still very close to6:35all-time highs as it's only roughly 2%6:37off of them. But on the other hand, just6:4042% of stocks in the S&P 500 are6:43currently trading above their 50-day6:45moving average, which is the weakest6:48level in 5 months. So that is a little6:50bit of a crack happening beneath the6:52surface. Uh looking at the earnings side6:55of things, the S&P 500 earnings are now6:58expected to surge 34% in 2026, more the7:02more than double the 15% growth rate7:05projected at the start of the year. So,7:07that is some good news. As we know,7:09inflation will continue to be a concern7:12for investors. And the more yields rise,7:15I think the harder it's going to be for7:17the stock market to keep reaching new7:20all-time highs. And jumping into the7:23earnings calendar for tomorrow, Oracle7:25and Adobe do report in after hours, and7:27this will be pretty big for the software7:30sector within the market. So, keep those7:32two stocks on the radar along with IGV,7:35which is a software ETF. But we can't7:38move forward without talking about the7:40biggest ever giveaway that Stock Up has7:42ever done. Yes, we are giving away some7:45amazing trading hardware. First place7:47will win an amazing standing desk along7:50with a Secret Lab Titan Evo chair along7:53with the intro to options and advanced7:55options courses for a total value of7:57just under $3,000. Second place will win8:00a 45-in curved 200Hz gaming monitor. And8:03third place will win a mouse and8:05keyboard with all of them winning the8:07intro to options and advanced options8:09courses as well. To get access to this,8:12check out the link in the description8:13down below to join the Stocked Up8:15Discord server for free. You can join up8:18and network with other traders. But8:20whenever you join up, navigate to the8:22giveaways tab and just click the green8:24check mark down here where under the8:26message that the giveaway bot has thrown8:28out. But now it's time to jump into the8:31good stuff, which are some setups and8:33predictions for tomorrow. And with my8:35first play, I think this one's going to8:37excite quite a few people out there. It8:39is AMD, which we like to call advanced8:42money dispenser around here, especially8:44whenever it's rising. and it had quite8:46the move today, moving up 3%. And AMD is8:50actually up 19.59%8:53over the past four trading days. That is8:55quite the move for such a large chip8:57stock. And the CFO projected that the8:59company's total addressable market could9:02reach 2 trillion to3 trillion by 2030,9:05fueled by AI demand, speaking at the9:08City Global Tech Conference. They9:10highlighted that this AI transformation9:12is just the beginning and continues to9:14drive strong interest across AMD's GPU9:17and CPU lineups. She also noted that the9:20company is wrapping up CPU supply,9:22projecting that the CPU segment alone9:24will expand by over 80% year-over-year9:27in the second half of the year and9:29maintain strong momentum into 2027 as9:32well. So AMD is starting to get a bit9:35higher and it was downtrending actually9:38over the past couple of months to past9:40few weeks and now that downtrend is9:42clearly starting to break and there is9:44some real momentum coming into play.9:46There is really no major resistance9:49right where we're at now on AMD but I9:51will say 530 was the peak back on August9:544th and that will be the first level9:56that I watch for into tomorrow. Ideally,9:59we break above 530 over the next day or10:02so and continue up towards the all-time10:04high closer to around 580450. So, I'll10:08be watching AMD closely. It's starting10:10to pick up some momentum yet again. And10:12I noticed a few memory chip players are10:14also moving again, too.10:16>> Very interesting. Another stock that's10:19close on watch is SPXS to the upside.10:22This is actually a play that can benefit10:25if the market falls. This is technically10:28an ETF and it does the opposite of what10:31the S&P 500 does and it moves in triple10:35the magnitude. So we can see during past10:37times of market panic this ETF has10:40exploded. Uh I don't necessarily think10:43the market is going to crash and burn10:45tomorrow. But I do think we are seeing10:47some selling pressure. There are real10:49risks on the table and it looks like10:51investors are locking in some profits10:54right now. S&P is on the radar for a10:57potential continuation in the short11:00term, especially if we continue to see11:02the S&P 500 put pressure on its recent11:06lows. Yeah, looking at S&Ps right now,11:09this could be a very fun stock or ETF to11:12play over the next few trading days,11:14especially if we continue to see the spy11:16put pressure on recent lows and maybe11:19even break through key support. So, I'll11:21definitely be watching it closely, Mike.11:23But with my next setup, I'm looking at11:25WFC or Wells Fargo to the upside. I11:28noticed today that Wells Fargo, JP11:31Morgan, Bank of America, and a lot of11:33the bank stocks started to move,11:35especially intraday as we started to see11:38the yields pop off again. And I thought11:40that this was an interesting dynamic,11:42especially for Wells Fargo right now.11:45Wells Fargo is a bank stock that's been11:47lagging behind some others, whereas JP11:50Morgan and Bank of America have been11:51moving a bit better throughout this11:53year. Wells Fargo is stuck at key11:56resistance in the short term. And we can11:58see that it did reject down yesterday on12:01Tuesday, but today we got that immediate12:03bounce back and recovery. This gives me12:06some extra uh we'll say positive12:09sentiment heading into tomorrow that we12:11could end up seeing Wells Fargo break12:13out. uh having some extra confidence12:15like this uh would even be better if we12:18end up breaking out above $90.30.12:20I think that that recent high will be12:22the main area to look for. And if we do12:25see the break, I think that Wells Fargo12:27could start to push up towards its uh12:29recent highs closer to around like 97 to12:32$98 over the next few weeks. But if we12:35do get a good candle tomorrow, I think a12:38push towards 91 to $91.50 50 would be a12:41first initial target zone to watch for.12:44>> It would be nice to see that resistance12:46break at 90. I'll keep it close on the12:48radar as well. Another area of the12:50market that is still on the radar is12:52energy. It's been like one of the best12:55performing areas of the market in 2026.12:58Tickers like UG, which tracks gas13:01prices, CRK, which tracks oil refining13:04companies, and XLE, which tracks the13:06energy sector as a whole, has been13:09crushing it. They're still close on13:10watch. And again, if we continue to see13:14um the war in the Middle East continue13:17to escalate, these companies may only13:19benefit uh even more. They are still13:22close on the radar until this war in the13:25Middle East deescalates.13:28I do have to say, Mike, I got to give13:30you a lot of credit here with these13:31stocks. They have been very explosive13:33over the past few months and we've been13:35covering them quite a bit and I know13:37that you've been mentioning some13:38interesting tickers like CR A that has13:41went absolutely wild over these past few13:44months. So, shout out to you and shout13:46out to everybody that's been taking13:47advantage of these energy plays. It's a13:50good way to take advantage of we'll say13:52the uh bad global tensions going on. But13:55with those out of the way, let's go13:56ahead and jump into today's momentum13:59plays. And with the first one, it's14:01another energy stock, ticker symbol XN14:03or Exxon Mobile. If we see Exxon break14:06out above 16520 tomorrow, keep continue14:09watching it to the upside. And with the14:12next one, we have Nanuclear Energy,14:14ticker symbol NNE, to the downside.14:18>> Yeah, NE pulled back hard today. If it14:20breaks down under $1810,14:22keep watching it lower. It even dropped14:25right as the market closed today. And14:27then with the last one, we have Andis,14:28ticker symbols, also to the downside.14:32Yeah, another pretty nasty move,14:34especially into market close. If breaks14:37down under $7.25,14:39keep watching for another drop lower.14:42These three stocks are on the radar for14:44potential continuations tomorrow. If and14:46only if they break through the levels14:48listed. These stocks are volatile, so14:50always protect yourself and focus on14:52what matters, which is making smart,14:54disciplined trading decisions. We have a14:56lot of great free info in the Stocked Up14:58Discord group, so check that out as15:00well. The link for it is in the15:02description down below. But let's also15:04jump right into today's $2.57 million15:08big money trade. Today we are looking at15:10ticker symbol RCL. This is Royal15:14Caribbean, and the trader here traded15:16the 250 strike put options that expire15:19on March 19th of 2027. Uh this is the15:23world's second largest cruise vacation15:26company owning and operating global15:28fleets under core brands like Royal15:30Caribbean, Celebrity Cruises, and Silver15:33Sea. Uh this company has been fairly15:37volatile, especially over the past few15:39weeks. And if we do continue to see oil15:43prices rise, that would negatively15:46affect their business. And especially if15:48we continue to see the economy weaken,15:51uh that would also likely probably15:53affect the cruise business in a negative15:55way as well. It's nice to see the stock15:58already relatively weak heading into16:01this big money trade. I like how it has16:04a lot of time to it. It's a little bit16:07out of the money, but nothing16:09unreasonable, and it's a very16:11interesting trade to keep on the radar16:13uh throughout the rest of this year and16:15into March.16:17Yeah, there are a couple huge support16:19levels coming up on Royal Caribbean, but16:21there's really two big things hitting16:23their stock right now. You know, we have16:25higher inflation impacting consumers16:27along with higher yields and then of16:29course the higher energy prices uh you16:32know, obviously negatively affecting16:33them and it's pushing the stock down to16:35some pretty insane levels here. Now,16:37there is a big support around 245 and if16:40we did come down to test that support on16:42RCL, this play would perform pretty16:45well. Now, of course, it has a lot of16:47time and I know a lot of traders would16:49probably be looking for a larger drop16:51than that. Well, why don't we go ahead16:53and go back to 2022 whenever we actually16:55saw the other oil crisis recently start16:58to play out with the Ukraine war and we17:01can actually see that, you know, Royal17:02Caribbean fell down and it didn't even17:05just fall. Like, it broke through some17:07key support levels, but it took a little17:09while. We could see it was choppy in17:11that range for uh about a year and then17:14it eventually broke below, let's say, as17:16oil and energy prices started to17:18skyrocket and truly hold those highs.17:20I'm a little bit worried about that17:22playing out right here. You know, we've17:24been in that consolidation zone for17:25about a year and if these energy prices17:28stay elevated longer than people think,17:30we might start to fall out underneath17:32support. Very interesting play. It has a17:34lot of time and I will say Royal17:36Caribbean is a stock that can really17:38move and don't be surprised if this one17:40continues to move lower in the short17:42term.17:42>> Yeah, let's keep it close on watch. And17:44if you're new to the channel, welcome17:46and consider obliterating that subscribe17:48button. For every single trading day, we17:51post brand new videos just like this17:53one, showcasing crazy multi-million17:55dollar big money trades, stocks to keep17:57on your radar, spy levels and analysis,18:00upcoming events, past stats, the most18:03important things to know, and so much18:05more. It takes a long time to make these18:07videos each day, and if you subscribe,18:09you'll get them recommended to you more18:11often. So, definitely consider doing18:13that. And let's also give a giant shout18:15out to today's member of the day, Bavash18:18in the Stocked Up Discord group who had18:21some great gains today. Huge shout out18:23to you. It was awesome to see these18:25great profits with your Meta Leaps. It's18:28awesome to see. Thank you guys so much18:30for watching. If you're new to the18:31channel, don't forget to subscribe. But18:33besides that, let's crush it in the18:36market tomorrow.
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