Transcript of WARNING: Gold is about to BREAK
TraderNick
0:00Last week, the CPI and PPI reports0:03showed that inflation was a little bit0:06higher than expected. We've also seen0:08oil prices on the rise, and we have a0:09Fed meeting coming up in a few days. Is0:11this going to send gold to fresh lows?0:14And could we potentially see new lows0:16for the year in gold, or is there a0:19possibility that the Fed commentary0:22doesn't quite match what the market is0:24fearing right now? I'm going to talk0:26about sentiment positioning as well as0:28some of the macro behind why I actually0:31think more of the latter in that0:34circumstance. I think that the Federal0:35Reserve possibly could hike interest0:37rates in the coming week. But what0:39matters more on whether or not they hike0:41this coming week or not is whether they0:45guide for further hikes from there. And0:48what I mean by that is the market is0:49very forwardlooking. We have seen, for0:51example, all of the prices uh rising due0:54to oil prices moving higher, the0:56straight of horm stuff send gold into a0:59pretty rough draw down this year. If1:01we're talking about from peak to trough,1:02gold uh on paper here lost almost 30% of1:06its value at one point, but it's started1:08to recover despite oil prices still1:11being elevated. The question is, is this1:14little bit of a rally that we've had1:16going and now starting to see pull back,1:18is this a bit of a false hope move? and1:20are we going back down to fresh lows or1:22is there some follow-through that could1:24potentially be coming? Well, let's jump1:26into all of that here in today's video.1:28As always, remember that this is not1:29financial advice. Trading is high risk.1:31Please be careful out there. And let's1:33talk a little bit first and foremost1:34about the technicals. So, I looked at1:36the weekly chart there a second ago and1:38now what you can see here is I'm looking1:40at the daily chart and the daily chart1:42has shown at least in recent times at1:45least no longer such a decisively1:48bearish chart. Like if we look at the1:50daily chart, you know, a while ago, we1:52can see I'm just zooming back a couple1:54months. You can see this thing was just1:55in a straight up downward trend with1:57little to no hope of any sort of1:59recovery. Then we entered into this2:02sideways range that we've been really2:03stuck in for some time and then finally2:05we got the breakout, right? Or at least2:07we have started a breakout. The big2:10question mark that you can kind of see2:12by my position here, I think it has2:13potential to keep going higher. Uh2:16that's the question. We are sitting now2:17at the re uh sort of the breakout retest2:20opportunity here along gold. Now, if2:23you're a day trader or a short-term2:25trader and you've been watching gold and2:26banging your head against the wall like2:28come on gold, do something, make a move2:30one way or the other, you're not alone.2:31Me, too, because it's been a bit of a2:33chopfest in the last two weeks. And as a2:35swing trader, I'm just glad that I'm not2:38adjusting my positions every single day2:40or, you know, trying to get in and out2:41of this move. I'm really not. I've been2:43sitting in a trade here for 1 2 3 4 5 62:467 eight days in a row just kind of2:49waiting for this thing to make a move.2:51But I think that this past week's data2:54and really the last two weeks data2:56because we got the jobs report and we2:57got the inflation reports paint an2:59interesting picture. I'm going to get3:01into the macro in just a second, but3:02let's stick to the technicals for now.3:04From a technical perspective, I still3:07think you have uh a reasonable situation3:10where you could see the bulls uh3:12continue what they started here in the3:13recent months. What I mean by that is3:15that from a technical price action3:16perspective, we had a very nice3:18impulsive move higher. We've had a3:20pullback and we're sort of just3:21chattering here at what I think is a3:23pretty critical level of support. And3:25let's rest on that for a second. Pretty3:27critical level of support. What I think3:29is important to clarify here is that if3:32we lose this level, this 50% retracement3:34zone and 61.8% retracement zone, you can3:37see that my stop loss has been put in a3:39very deliberate spot here. I really from3:42a technical price action perspective to3:44defend my bull case would like to see3:47these areas acting as support. And if we3:50start to lose this from a daily chart3:52perspective, I think that really kills3:54off a lot of this bullish chart behavior3:57that we've been recently acknowledging.4:00So from my perspective on the technical4:02analysis side, I would like to see this4:05level hold sooner rather than later. And4:07if we do break completely flush through4:09the lows, it will probably mean getting4:12out of the trade and moving on to the4:14next idea. So overall, I do like the4:17prospect of gold moving higher from a4:18technical perspective, but I know my red4:21light, green light. What I mean by that4:22is here's my red light and here's my4:24green light. I am looking for a4:26continuation to the upside, in which4:28case I'll look to trail a stop. I don't4:30have a strict take-profit, but I do have4:32a strict stop-loss. So, I have a defined4:34risk. I know what I'm going to do if I'm4:35wrong. And if I'm right, if gold does4:38start to make a move from a technical4:39basis higher, I'll be looking to trail4:41stops. and we'll be updating those4:43positions here on the channel and of4:45course inside of our VIP Discord group.4:47By the way, just a last call on our4:49EdgeFinder discounts that we're4:50currently offering. We're offering a4:51huge major savings if you use promo code4:54YTV VIP at checkout. You get 40% off.4:57Scan the QR code that you see on the4:58screen right now or click the very first5:00link in the description down below to5:02explore the tool, all of its different5:03features. And if you need to set up a5:05payment plan, feel free to contact us on5:07our website. We do offer that as an5:09option if you need to split it up into5:10monthly payments. And speaking of5:12EdgeFinder, let's take a look. Let's see5:14what we've got here in terms of our5:15current top setups radar. I'm going to5:17go ahead and uh for starters, just5:20because we're talking metals, you can5:21see that gold is getting a neutral5:23reading, while silver is also getting a5:25neutral reading. So, not a huge5:27confirmation for new entries here for5:29me. I do have my existing position that5:30I'm just going to hold on to and manage5:32my risk on, but I'm not looking to add5:35aggressively gold and silver. I want to5:37break this down further. So, what we'll5:38do next is we'll go to the asset5:40scorecard and I'll select for gold. So,5:42if I switch over here, I'm going to go5:44in here and I'm going to switch this5:45chart to gold, which is what we're5:47focusing on here for starters today. You5:49can see that the score history shows5:51that we were pretty bullish on gold.5:52Like gold was getting a really solid5:54edgeinder reading that has since sort of5:56retraced. It's backed off. And all this5:59is showing you is that after looking at6:00all of these categories, technicals,6:02institutional activity, economic growth6:05metrics, inflation metrics, jobs market6:07statistics, and crowd sentiment, which6:09was a huge one this past week. Um, these6:12are generally producing a mixed reading6:15right now. Not very exciting, but let's6:17lean into a couple data points that we6:19saw on Friday and Thursday of this past6:22week. Okay, so CPI, right? CPI came in6:25in line with expectations. 3.4 versus6:273.4 before expected. That gives you a6:29neutral reading for gold in isolated6:31form. Looking at the consumer price6:33index and its impact on gold, we'll call6:35that neutral. The producer price index,6:37not so great. That was higher than6:39expected. That's more bearish for gold6:41because it suggests the Fed may hike6:43interest rates. And in other words, the6:45dollar could be strong. The two-year6:47yield has also been screaming higher.6:49And if we flip over just to take a6:51reference point of what I'm talking6:52about there with the 2-year, right? Pull6:54this one up. Yeah, that is not usually a6:57positive thing for gold. And the reason6:59for this is really quite simple. If7:02bonds are offering higher yields, the7:03opportunity cost to holding precious7:05metals which yield nothing, starts to7:08get challenged. And that's traditional7:09finance talk. It's not, you know, a7:11perfect system. Some gold traders would7:13say, well, higher yields are also7:15potentially suggesting that there's a7:17problem in the underlying fiscal system7:19and the debasement trade is real, etc.7:21And trust me, I like that story, too. I7:23think long term it's a it's a fairly7:25reasonable point but in the short term7:28uh higher yields suggest rate hikes and7:30rate hikes are almost always not very7:33attractive to precious metals and more7:35attractive for the currency for the7:36dollar index versus its peers. Now7:38please understand fiat currency itself I7:41think is going to get printed like crazy7:43not just in the US but globally as7:45national debts continue to soar etc etc.7:49Um, I think that the dollar, however,7:51does not necessarily have to fall in7:52that environment because it's all7:54relative to other currencies, right?7:56Some people say the dollar is going to7:57plummet. Well, it depends what you're7:58saying. Are you saying the dollar's8:00purchasing power is going to plummet, in8:02which case I agree with you? Or are we8:04saying is the dollar is going to8:06depreciate dramatically against the8:08euro, the yen, the Australian dollar,8:10etc. That's what obviously the DXY sort8:13of tracks here. And in that case, I'm8:15not so convinced one way or the other.8:17I'm a little bit more neutral on that8:18side of things. Remember, currency8:20trading is a little bit different than8:22trading gold versus the dollar. Gold8:24versus the dollar is sort of a measure8:25of fiat currency valuations or or8:27purchasing power effectively. And in8:29that case, that's part of the reason why8:30I think gold has room to the upside. I8:33think governments around the world,8:35massive national debts, they're going to8:37keep printing money to facilitate those8:39debts and try and stir growth and8:41spending is just nowhere stopping in my8:43opinion. And that makes me think, all8:45right, I think gold over the longer term8:47is a reasonable place to hide out.8:49That's my perspective on it. People feel8:51free to disagree, but that's my general8:53longer term bullcase on gold is massive8:56national debts, never- ending government8:58spending, uh, and generally speaking,9:00the idea of potentially investors9:02wanting to flock to something outside of9:04the traditional financial system. Now,9:06those are all bold cases for uh the9:08permables out there on gold. I am one of9:10you longer term. But what about in the9:12short term? From a trader perspective, a9:14little lackluster. Now, let me explain9:16what I mean by that. Inflation higher9:18than expected is a no bueno for gold in9:20the short term. Um, that's confusing to9:22newer traders because they're like,9:24"What? Inflation? Isn't gold an9:25inflation hedge?" Yes, over the long9:26term. In the short term, not9:28necessarily, because a strong dollar on9:30the prospect of higher interest rates is9:33part of the reason why if you've been9:34long gold recently, it's been a little9:35bit painful as you wait and watch the9:37thing keep going down. So, let's go a9:41step further. The non-farm payroll9:42number was also stronger than expected.9:44This is strong dollar, bare gold, right?9:47Okay. So, why is Edgefinder not bearish9:50then? Well, there's a couple9:51contributing factors here that are more9:52positive. For example, commitment of9:54traders data. Huge bullishness here.9:57Check this out. We saw institutional9:58accumulation here. Institutions are10:00almost 90% long gold. Huge net exposure10:04here. By the way, let's show off some of10:05our tools. We'll go into our latest10:07commitment of traders data report here10:09and pull it up. And there it is. Gold10:11saw some net accumulation, right? We10:13overall know institutions are heavily10:16long gold here as we speak. And we can10:18take a look at the coot data history.10:20And what I'm going to do here is I'm10:21going to filter for gold only. And let's10:24take a look at this. And there you go.10:26Institutions continue to be very, very10:28bullish on the long percentage10:30allocation for gold. This tells me10:32generally speaking I want to be more in10:34the directional bias that institutions10:36and hedge funds etc are and so I can10:38track this with EdgeFinder. Like I said10:40get yourself a copy. The discount is10:42ending very soon. Get 40% off the10:44product for a limited time down below in10:46the description. Okay. So with our tools10:49here we can properly see institutions10:50are long gold. But what about crowd10:53sentiment? We talked about this a lot10:55this past week and I think it's worth10:57continuing to do so. Now we're focused10:59on gold. We'll do stocks in just a11:01second because I'm also curious to see11:02what's happening there. But here's gold.11:04Look at this. Gold is seeing a massive11:07amount of put volume relative to call11:09volume. We can kind of extrapolate this11:11further by taking a look at our net11:13options volume. We'll flip this over to11:15gold. And there it is, right? Massive11:17amounts of put volume versus call11:20volume. So crowd sentiment is leaning11:22way more in the direction of being11:24bearish and betting gold is going to11:25move lower. I talked about this. So, I11:27don't want to harp on this too long cuz11:28I talked about it a lot on my Friday11:30video. I would encourage you to go check11:31that out after this one. If you have not11:33seen it, um, but overall, this crowd11:36sentiment being so onedirectionally11:38bearish makes me think or at least gives11:42me the the prospect that if we get a11:44little bit of relief news, let's say for11:46example, the Fed guides one hike and11:49doesn't plan on cut hiking them again or11:51the surprise happens and they don't hike11:53interest rates. Both of those scenarios11:55I think would would set up a11:58disproportionately or or a not an12:00asymmetric reward versus potential risk12:04going into the Fed meeting next week.12:06That's my base case for this narrative12:08right now. Let me explain what I mean by12:10that more. If everyone's betting gold's12:12going to go lower and then suddenly some12:14good news comes out, gold sharply moves12:17higher. And that actually happened on12:18the CPI report today. Here is or I12:21should say on Friday. Let me also12:23clarify. I am recording this Friday12:24afternoon as I've got a busy weekend.12:26I'm going to some weddings, etc. So, um12:28going to be a fun weekend, but recording12:30this on Friday. So, here's Friday's12:31trading action in response to CPI. It12:34came in as expected. So, think about12:37this for a second. The data came in in12:39line with expectations. No big surprise.12:42Big whoop. Wasn't a really big deal. And12:44yet, gold ripped higher. Why? Because12:46everyone thought it was going to go12:47lower. Again, use the right tools and12:50you can see this stuff ahead of time.12:51The crowd sentiment was really12:52pessimistic on gold before the CPI. And12:55so when CPI came in in line with12:58expectations, up she goes. Gold flew to13:01the heavens in response to that in the13:03short term, right? Obviously, not a huge13:04move on the daily because we kind of13:06receded and ended up being a little bit13:08more neutral on the day. But in the13:10short term, understanding if you're a13:12day trader or even a swing trader, when13:14you can see position trading like this13:16or or position uh so onedirectionally13:19kind of biased on things like gold, it13:22sets up really good potential trading13:24opportunities when used in combination13:26with the macro and technical analysis13:29etc. And ultimately that is the purpose13:31of hedge funders to bring all that stuff13:33together. So you can see the crowd13:34sentiment super pessimistic up here and13:37our crowd sentiment is giving us a13:38bullish contrarian signal right now on13:41gold specifically. The other thing worth13:43mentioning institutional activity has13:45been incredibly bullish. They've been13:47adding longs and are overall very long13:49in terms of their net positioning. So13:51we're tracking all this stuff and it is13:53leaning more bullish here recently for13:54gold. So I'm going to keep an eye. The13:56big thing that would flip this thing13:58around would be good oldfashioned13:59breakouts to the upside. technical score14:01flipping positive would be a really good14:04helpful signal here for gold. And what14:06we can do here is I would be looking14:08specifically and I know edgefinder would14:10likely get bullish if we were to break14:12out of this range to the upside. Now, if14:14you're unfamiliar with how EdgeFinder14:16does its uh trend score, let me give you14:19a 30 second version of how that works.14:21What you can see is the trend score is14:23bearish because we have this is a we'll14:25actually pull this up here. So, let me14:27go to my indicator here. We're using a14:29three and a 14 moving average on the14:31daily chart to gauge recent trend14:33direction. And so what you can see here14:35is the trend is not agreeing with us.14:37It's actually more pointed lower right14:38now. So if we were to see a breakout14:40here, you could very well quickly see14:43edgeinders reading go from neutral to14:46incredibly bullish very quick. So I'm14:48watching for that because I think that14:50you have sentiment very directionally14:52bearish. You have macro that is softly14:54suggesting there could be some upside14:56and then if you get the technical14:58breakout next week, I think we could15:00actually see a very sharp move higher.15:03Now again, these are opinions. I could15:05be wrong. In fact, if you go through my15:06comment section on any one of my videos,15:08you'll always see people pointing out15:10the things that I was wrong about. I15:12don't shy away from it. I am wrong on a15:14lot of things when it comes to markets.15:15The good news is that you don't have to15:17be right all the time in trading. It's15:19not a game of being right all the time15:21is what it takes to be profitable. What15:23matters is that you manage your downside15:25when you are wrong and when you are15:27right you capitalize on it. You maximize15:29it. You let winners run etc. That's at15:31least how I have been able to generate15:33overall positive returns in markets by15:36basically letting winners run, cutting15:38losers quickly and combining the macro,15:41combining the sentiment score and and15:43overall technical reads that edgefinder15:45is helping me to find. That is15:47effectively what I'm doing. Okay. So,15:49what about the US dollar? Maybe there's15:51something interesting here. Well, here's15:53a little bit of a challenge to this. We15:55are flat neutral on this one. And a big15:57reading here now is that we have overall16:00the commitment of traders data came in16:02more bullish giving us more sentiment.16:04That's a little bit more positive here16:06in terms of our sentiment scoring.16:07Institutions are long dollar. All right.16:09So, I want to kind of avoid being too16:11bearish on the dollar right now. So,16:12let's keep moving. What else do we have16:14to look at? Well, another way I can look16:16at this is I can go over to my top16:17setups page and I can filter16:20specifically for nonneutral readings.16:23Let's get something with a little bit16:24more a little bit more excitement to it.16:26All right, so looking at this uh what we16:29have here is a full list of different16:31things that we could look into. For16:32example, the Aussie dollar. Many of you16:34guys, if you were watching my channel16:36last week, know that I took some profits16:38on my Aussie dollar longs. And I'm glad16:39that I did because we flipped around16:42here and after basically I I was able to16:44trail my stop up to this point. I took16:46profits on this trade and it has16:48continued to sort of go sideways or16:50lower sets. Will I get back into this16:52trade? Well, let's take a look at the16:54daily chart. And I'm not opposed to16:56potentially joining where we saw this16:58previous really strong reaction. So17:00Aussie dollar might be a longside setup17:03for me going into the week ahead. Like I17:04said, if I take that trade, I'll share17:05it inside Discord. The link to join that17:08is in the description down below. So I17:10like Aussie dollar to the upside. What17:11about on the downside? Some things that17:13stand out to me. Indices are super17:15bearish in terms of a macro reading. So17:18let's look for example at let's look at17:20let's look at NASDAQ or S&P 500. So if I17:23go to my asset scorecard, I want to17:24narrow in a little bit. So what I'll do17:25is I'll just type NAS. We'll punch this17:27in and uh let me reload. Okay, so I just17:30had to reload the page there, but we are17:32good. So, we're getting a very bearish17:33reading on NASDAQ. All right, so what's17:36what gives here? Why? Well, inflation's17:38hot. So, that's giving us a bearish17:40reading. High inflation. Economic growth17:43has been mixed to negative here recently17:45in terms of PMIs coming in worse than17:47expected. Retail sales were soft.17:49Consumer confidence not great. At the17:52same time, jobs data has been we did17:54have the good NFP report, but we had17:56weekly jobless claims, ADP numbers, and17:58Jolt's job openings that disappointed18:00expectations. All right, this does not18:03look very promising. And we also have a18:04technical read that has gone bearish.18:06And seasonally, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ18:09are most bearish in the month of18:12September during each year. So, that's18:14being tracked automatically here by our18:16seasonal trend filter as well. Okay, so18:19NASDAQ, what about NASDAQ? Let's let's18:21take a look at NAS 100 here on the18:24chart. Now, here's my hesitation with18:27it. It's a choppy chart. It doesn't have18:29a very solid uh directional kind of18:32trend going on with it, at least on the18:34daily. What about the 4 hour? Yeah,18:36that's a messy chart. However, let's get18:39uh let's get creative here. If, for18:41example, we start taking out lows and we18:44start seeing price action flood through18:46those lows, I'm a momentum trader. I18:48would be potentially interested in maybe18:50selling the 29,000 level on a break and18:52retest of that zone. So, that's a setup18:54that I'm watching for. It's on my radar,18:56but probably not one that I'm going to18:58jump into immediately. Same with the S&P19:00500. This is a really choppy chart that19:02really lacks a clear trend on the 4 hour19:05and the daily even as well. Right? Daily19:07has just been so messy. These are choppy19:09charts with not a lot of conviction. So,19:11what am I looking for? I'm looking for a19:12break lower. I'm looking for a failure19:14at this level instead of sort of this19:16this touch of the lows and then19:17rebounding here today. I'd like to see19:19something like this. A break of that19:21level, a decisive clean sweep to the19:24downside, a pullback into that level, a19:26little couple days up, and then I'd be19:28looking to sell into that rally with a19:30defined risk, meaning a stop-loss above19:32in case I'm just wrong in that thesis.19:35So that's my thought process on indices19:38is I do lean a little bit more on the19:39bearish side, but from a technical19:41perspective, I don't really see a clean19:42setup and this chart just looks so messy19:44right now. Same with the Dow Jones. This19:46one may be the most clean of the list.19:48This actually looks pretty decent on the19:514hour chart. Uh markets have closed at19:53the time of recording this here. Um but19:55maybe I'm watching the Dow Jones on the19:58uh open next week. Now again, if I take20:00any trades, I know I keep saying it, but20:02the link for joining to get access to20:03those trade alerts will be sent in or20:05will be shared in the uh description20:07down below. So I think you know in terms20:10of the Dow, if I flip over to Dow Jones,20:12it's going to be US30 for the CFD20:14traders or YM for the futures traders,20:16we're looking at this thing and I'm20:17thinking, okay, we got macroeconomic20:19score that's some pretty negative20:20territory. Technical iss20:23that I'd be more interested in selling20:25than buying right now. So, I actually20:27don't hate the idea of a possible short20:29setup on the Dow going into next week.20:32Uh maybe the 61.8% retracement is my20:35line of defense here. Looking for20:37something like this move here to our20:38next wave lower. Uh now, I wouldn't20:41actually put a stop or a target on it. I20:43would be looking to trail stops, but20:44this is a trade setup that I think20:46actually has some decent merit. Um and20:48I'd probably put on with them some small20:50size. So, I'm watching the Dow to the20:52downside here going into next week. uh20:55and would definitely be interested in20:57shorts over longs at least for the time21:00being uh and keeping an open mind in21:02case we get something change in the21:04data. But right now my data is pretty21:05clear on this which has been you know if21:07we take a look at let's go take a look21:09at uh well we see it right here the21:11score history has been pretty bearish21:13since what is this August first bearish21:16reading was August 23rd. So, it's been21:17bearish for a few weeks, but I've not21:19really seen a bunch of technical setups21:21until now. We're starting to see a21:22little bit more weakness here that's21:25following through. So, so August 23rd,21:27by the way, for reference, that's going21:28to be right around here. So, this is21:30when EdgeFinder first got bearish on the21:33Dow. So, I'm keeping an eye on it, but21:35um that is a a prospect here for next21:38week. Let me see if I see anything else21:40that is very obvious on this front. Um21:42maybe a little bit on the currency. So,21:43I mentioned Aussie dollar longs look21:45interesting to me. Uh, that's going to21:47probably do it for currencies because I21:50typically don't trade minor currency21:51pairs. I tend to like the dollar21:52crosses. Looking at the dollar, we do21:55have Euro dollar hitting a bearish21:56reading, which is really, really21:58interesting. Uh, so we've got a mixed22:01bag here. Look at this. Aussie dollar22:02getting a bullish reading. Euro dollar22:04getting a bearish one. So, dollar's22:06getting that neutral sentiment that I22:08mentioned earlier is showing up here as22:10well. If we look at crypto also, um,22:13actually, let me just look at Euro22:14dollar really quick just to see what22:15that chart looks like. Yeah, Euro dollar22:17to me still looks pretty bullish. But if22:19you were to see from a technical22:20perspective, but if you were to see this22:22start to give way to a more bearish22:24looking chart, I wouldn't be opposed to22:26keeping an eye on that score on22:27Edgeinder to see if there's a setup22:29there on that. Um, what was I going to22:31say? I was going to say something else.22:32Oh yeah, Bitcoin. So, Bitcoin here. Um,22:36kind of no man's land. Choppy here.22:37Rangebound as well. If you get a flush22:39through the lows, I'd be interested in22:40potentially selling this thing back22:42down. A little bit more on the bearish22:44side here as well. High inflation,22:45interest rate hikes, etc. makes a bit22:48more sense on my view to to be a seller22:51of Bitcoin rather than a buyer. Um, in22:53the short term, we've got Bitcoin with a22:55minus4, Ethereum. Where's Ethereum on22:57here? Yeah, minus4 as well. So, I'll22:59keep an eye on these ones. Uh, looking23:01for some maybe some downside breakouts23:03uh going into the week ahead. And what23:06else do we have here? British pound23:08getting a pretty bearish reading.23:09Natural gas here. Um, also another23:12interesting reading. Some commodities23:14uh, showing some bearish pressure here.23:16If I'm looking at like the 4our chart23:18just a bit too choppy for my liking. I'd23:21be interested in this one if it were to23:22break lows. You know, something like23:23this setup looks intriguing. Uh,23:25something like this sort of move, a23:27break retest opportunity. Those are my23:29bread and butter bread and butter setups23:31as long as edgefinder is sort of23:33confirming the thesis. Um, so yeah,23:35we'll see. And by the way, if you are23:37not already trading with AAP, I know a23:39lot of members here or a lot of uh23:41YouTube viewers have made their move23:42over to AAP. It's because they're23:43offering a huge deposit bonus right now.23:46If you use the QR code on the screen23:48right now, traders outside of the United23:49States can take advantage of this23:51deposit bonus that they are currently23:52offering my subscribers. If you sign up23:54with the QR code or link in the23:56description down below, they will23:58basically give you a 20% deposit bonus.24:00Terms and conditions of course apply.24:02So, please make sure to do your due24:03diligence on this. ensure that this is24:05the right brokerage for you and that you24:07agree to all terms and conditions before24:09proceeding with this offer. Last chart24:11I'll be looking at here is oil.24:13Interestingly, oil has basically come up24:15to another major level of resistance.24:17And this is an interesting chart to me24:20from a edgefinder perspective, which of24:22course is critical to my By the way, if24:24if you're like Nick, you're mentioning24:25EdgeFinder too much. Um you might want24:27to watch someone else because this is24:29integral to my system. I have some24:31people who are like, "Nick, you use24:32EdgeFinder all the time in your videos.24:34Uh, can you lay off of it?" The answer24:36is no because EdgeFinder is quite24:38literally my trading uh partner. It is24:41what I use to find setups that I take.24:43So, anyways, with oil here in my and all24:46edgeinder is doing is just showing a24:47bunch of data here that matters to24:49markets. And so, when we look at24:50edgeinders reading on oil minus 6, okay,24:54so that's macroeconomic sides telling me24:57not to be a buyer of oil. And yet25:00technicals are telling me bullish.25:02Sentiment is telling me literally or a25:04little bit bullish as well. So mixed25:06reading. So nothing here in terms of an25:08immediate action for me in terms of a25:10directional trade. If anything, I'd be25:12more interested in like selling options25:13on this one. Selling selling calls,25:15selling puts type of thing. Um out of25:17the money sort of approach. But in terms25:19of active directional trades, nothing.25:22And I think that in one respect I'm25:24thinking, all right, the administration,25:25I think, is going to do everything they25:27can to keep things quiet in the Middle25:29East because they have midterms that25:31they're trying to win, right? There's an25:32incentive there to, you know, win the25:34midterm elections and gas prices flying25:36higher does not help them with their25:38their narrative on that front. So, I25:41think that there's in that case that's25:42more of a bare case. But at the same25:44time, you have Iran who I think wants to25:46make noise and wants to to put some25:48pressure on the administration to do25:50something and negotiate with them in25:52some way that is favorable to them. So25:53they could continue to sort of cause25:55problems and to cause unrest uh to get25:57their attention. This sounds like a25:59bunch of Game of Thrones stuff and I26:00think it kind of is. This is the26:01narrative, right? This is the the26:03concept of the Trump administration and26:05the Iranians. they're trying to kind of26:07uh get at each other in terms of um26:09negotiations and how to resolve things26:11in a favorable way to their own efforts,26:14etc. So, we'll see how that all plays26:15out, but it leaves me more in a neutral26:17camp when it comes to oil. Do I think26:19oil is going to blow out to fresh26:21massive highs and go to $120 a barrel? I26:24personally don't think that's very26:25likely, but if I were to take a guess on26:28when it could happen, I would think it26:30would be after midterm elections, after26:32voting is in. Maybe that's when things26:34start to get aggressive in the Middle26:35East again. But I don't know. I'm not26:37I'm not willing to make those sort of26:38predictions. And I haven't made money in26:40markets making those sorts of super bold26:44massive predictions. Instead, I've made26:46the majority of the money I've made in26:48markets by following macro trends and26:50price trends and just going with the26:52flow rather than trying to make this26:54prediction. You'll see people all over26:56social media and people doing it in26:58their own trading where they're like, I27:00think gold is going or I think uh yeah,27:02gold or oil or stocks, whatever. They'll27:04make these huge predictions. I think oil27:06is going to be at $150 barrels in a27:08month from now and or $150 a barrel in a27:12in a month from now. And it's like,27:13yeah, you might be right, but that sort27:16of bold prediction causes people to go27:18out and buy calls, you know, way out of27:20the money. And a lot of times, even if27:22they're right in direction, they lose on27:24the the options expiring worthless27:25because they're out of the money or they27:27lever up like crazy. They buy so much of27:29oil and even a blip lower causes them to27:31blow their account. And I think27:33predictions are dangerous. Instead, what27:35do we have in front of us? From a27:36technical perspective, we have an27:38uptrend. From a macro perspective, we27:40have a downtrend. Right? The macro here,27:42generally speaking, economic surprise,27:44uh, has been mostly to the downside,27:46meaning less demand for oil. Remember27:49economies of the world being strong,27:50stronger demand for oil. Economies of27:52the world weakening, weaker demand for27:54oil. The other side of that is supply27:56and supply has been the challenge.27:59Supply being constrained due due to28:01conflict in the Middle East is the28:03uptrending move here that we're seeing28:05right now. Uh so I think you have two28:07forces at play. I love to be long oil28:09when macro and technicals agree or short28:12oil when they both agree. But right now28:14I have a mixed bag from a technicals28:17perspective. Clear upward trend from a28:20macro or fundamentals perspective. More28:23of a bearish trend on the demand side,28:26jobs data, economic growth data, etc.28:30So, I'm left with a mixed perspective,28:32but I am watching it because if oil28:34continues to rip higher, it throws a28:36wrench in a lot of the trades that I do28:37have on. So, keeping an eye on that as28:39well. Guys, thank you very much for28:41watching. Remember, EdgeFinder sale is28:43ending. Get it down below in the28:44description. If you've been thinking28:45about getting a copy, it is worth it.28:47It's a one-time payment for access for28:50life. With that said, thank you very28:51much for watching. We'll see you in the28:52next one.
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