Transcript of The Federal Reserve Just Changed Everything...
StockedUp
0:00The Federal Reserve made a very clear0:02statement today. It raised interest0:04rates by 25 basis points, its first rate0:07hike since 2023, ending the longest Fed0:10interest rate pause since 2008. There's0:14something even more important that0:15happened, too. Today, we cover why0:17stocks are falling, what to know, and0:19where the action is right now.0:25In a 12 to0 unanimous decision, the0:28Federal Reserve officially raised0:30interest rates by 25 basis points,0:32bringing the Federal Funds rate from0:343.75%0:35to 4%. This marks the Fed's first rate0:38hike since July 2023 and ends its0:41longest pause in rate hikes since the0:432008 financial crisis. But one of the0:46most highly anticipated parts of today's0:48FOMC event was the updated FOMC dot0:52plot. The Fed's new dot plot signals0:54that today's hike probably won't be the0:56last. 16 of the 18 voting officials now0:59expect at least one additional rate hike1:01before the end of 2026. 14 of them are1:05also seeing rates ending 2027 above1:08today's level and then starting to cool1:10off into 2028 and 2029. During the1:14meeting though, the Fed made it clear1:16that inflation remains its priority,1:18saying the rate hike should support a1:20timelier return to its 2% target. When1:24asked about today's rate hike, going1:26against Trump's calls for a rate cut and1:28threatening to cut 50 plus US trade1:30partners if the Fed didn't cut, Worsh1:33declined to comment, saying he had1:35nothing to share regarding his1:36discussions with the president. And1:38historically, stocks have struggled1:40immediately after the Fed begins raising1:42rates with the S&P 500 falling an1:45average of 4% over the following six1:48weeks across seven different hiking1:50cycles since 1988. However, those losses1:54were typically recovered within the next1:575 to 6 weeks off of those lows. 6 months2:00after the first hike, the S&P 500 did2:03average positive returns, rising to 9%2:07after one year, with 2022 being the only2:10negative 12-month period. And the S&P2:14500 has also historically performed much2:16better one year after slower or shorter2:19hiking cycles, producing double-digit2:21median gains, while faster hiking cycles2:24resulted in negative median returns. The2:27two-week change in all cases is more2:29concerning though with the S&P red 61.1%2:32of the time. Iran's parliament speaker2:35commented on the Fed hiking rates this2:37morning, basically saying you can hike2:39rates if you want to, but it isn't going2:41to fix the crude or diesel shortage.2:44Reduced energy supply is the problem and2:46Saudi Arabia has canled some September2:48crude shipments to Europe due to recent2:51attacks on its east west oil pipeline2:53from the Houthis. The US and Saudi2:55Arabia claimed the East West oil2:57pipeline could restart within de within3:00days and be back to full capacity within3:02six weeks and this did push oil lower.3:06Brent crude took a hit and fell over 4%3:09at today's lows. Saudi Arabia got3:11attacked again though and says it3:13intercepted a Houthi drone headed toward3:15Mecca, the holiest city in Islam. The3:18Houthis denied targeting the city and3:20separately claimed they shot down a3:22Saudi fighter jet. Saudi forces3:24continued air strikes across Yemen and3:27as of now the US is still declining to3:29intervene in that war. But they have3:31offered intelligence and targeting3:33assistance to Saudi Arabia. The Trump3:36administration is also preparing a $2.83:398 billion weapon sale to Israel,3:41consisting of 40,000 2,000 lb bombs,3:45marking potentially the largest US sale3:48of these munitions to Israel in years.3:51And the world's best performing3:52sovereign wealth fund, New Zealand,3:55warned that the US stock market returns3:57are likely to cool down and face a3:58potential correction due to an4:00overextended rally as US equity returns4:03over the past couple years have doubled4:05the annualized average of the last 20.4:09Looking at the market today, New Zealand4:11might not be wrong. The SPY ended up4:13pulling back 044%4:16and we can see on an hourly chart that4:18today's drop does look pretty4:19significant. We did see a big gap down4:22into Monday of this week as well. And4:24the SPY has been weak over the past4:27couple of weeks, really failing to break4:29out past 774 and 775 resistance. Now, as4:33I watched the SPY into today, there was4:36one very big thing that occurred, and it4:38was the fact that SPY broke down under4:41the double bottom of this week around4:43756. That was a major breakdown, and now4:46that's going to act as major resistance4:48into tomorrow. If the bulls really plan4:51on a big recovery, breaking back above4:53756 would be ideal as a first4:56confirmation zone. So, watch this level.4:58If it breaks tomorrow, I would look for5:00a move up possibly to around 76150 to5:04762, which would be the next larger5:07resistance there. Now, at the same time,5:09the spy fell down and tested a major5:12support at 750. And if we actually zoom5:14out on the hourly chart and we go all5:16the way back to May of 2026, we can see5:19that that was a peak on the S&P 5005:22then. And there was also multiple5:24bounces, touches, and just rejections5:26off of this level throughout the past5:28few months. So watch this level closely.5:31If SPY breaks down under 750, I think5:33that we could see a much larger sell-off5:36come into play. The important thing to5:38remember though is that this move that5:40happened today was extremely volatile.5:42So I would be highly highly adaptable5:45going into the next few trading days. be5:47ready for a lot of chop and of course5:50watch 750 and a lot of areas in between5:52the high of day today and low of day.5:57Before we move on, I want to show you5:59guys something we haven't really broken6:00down on the channel before. A lot of you6:02ask how we map out our key support and6:04resistance levels and why price action6:06keeps getting held up at these specific6:08zones. This right here is the net gamma6:11exposure or GEX on SPY. Look right here6:14at this massive spike. That's the call6:16wall sitting pretty much right at 760.6:19That represents heavy dealer short6:21gamma, meaning market makers have to6:23hedge against price moving higher, which6:25essentially acts as overhead resistance.6:27Now, down here, this level is the gamma6:30flip, sitting around 773. When price is6:33above this level, dealer hedging absorbs6:35volatility and keeps price action6:37relatively controlled. But if price6:39breaks below the gamma flip, dealers go6:41short gamma, they're hedging flips and6:44volatility accelerates aggressively. If6:46we lose that level, expect high velocity6:48downside moves real fast. Looking at net6:51gamma exposure gives you the underlying6:53structural mechanics behind the6:55technical levels on your chart. And the6:57cleanest part about this is that I don't6:59even have to switch tabs or trade off a7:01clunky secondary broker window. We use7:03Trading View for all charting and Mumu7:05can connect directly to it so you can7:07trade through the charts. Trading View7:09voted Mumu as the best broker for stocks7:12in North America two years in a row in7:14both 2024 and 2025. Everything Tom just7:18showed from the GEX heat maps to order7:20flow execution is part of the Mumu7:22engine. It integrates advanced options7:24analytics, level three order depth, and7:27fundamental metrics into a single7:28platform. So you don't need five7:30different subscriptions. You can trade7:32stocks, options, ETFs, crypto, and7:35prediction markets all in one place.7:37Right now, Mumu is offering new users up7:39to $1,000 in Nvidia stock with the7:42qualifying deposit. They're offering an7:448.1% APY promotional rate on your7:47uninvested cash for 2 months. And for7:50the first 25 of you who set up and fund7:52an account with them, you'll get an7:54extra $149 stock cash reward to trade7:57with. Scan the QR code right here on the7:59screen or click that first link down in8:02the description to lock it in. The most8:03important events of the week are over8:05now, but we still have a few more8:07important data reports coming out on8:09Thursday and Friday. On Thursday,8:12building permits and housing starts data8:14will release 1 hour before open. So,8:16look out for that. And then looking a8:18bit further into the future, Chinese8:21President Xi Jinping is scheduled to8:24meet with Trump at the White House on8:26September 24th. And there's now reports8:29coming in that the Nvidia CEO Jensen8:31Wong will be attending as well to8:34discuss AI with the two presidents. So8:37that's pretty interesting. It really is.8:39Whenever you think about somebody like8:40Jensen Wong getting to meet with two8:43other famous presidents like that, that8:45is absolutely insane. for the CEO of a8:48large company. But US long-term8:50unemployment continues to rise with the8:53number of Americans unemployed for 278:55weeks or longer surging by 155,000 in8:59August to 1.93 million, the fourth9:02highest level since December 2021.9:05Long-term unemployment now accounts for9:0727% of all unemployed Americans, up 1.5%9:12in August, with the figure now rising9:14for more than three years and currently9:16sitting above the levels seen during9:18every recession except the 20089:21financial crisis and 2020 pandemic. For9:24comparison, long-term unemployment9:26accounted for just 17.8% of total9:29unemployment at its February 2023 low.9:32And this data seems to directly9:34contradict what the Federal Reserve and9:36analysts have been saying about there9:38being a strong labor market right now.9:41And but jumping into the earnings9:42calendar for the rest of the week, it is9:44pretty bare. So Mike, why don't we go9:46ahead and jump into the good stuff,9:48which are some setups and predictions9:50for tomorrow. And with my first setup,9:52I'm looking at UVXY to the upside. If we9:56continue to see the spy have downside9:58pressure just like what we saw today,10:00look at UVXY now from market open to its10:04high of the day. UVXY actually popped10:06off 6.8%.10:08I know it says that it only closed down10:10or closed up by 1.59%10:13which doesn't seem all that significant10:15but whenever you actually look at UVXY's10:18intraday moves it can have some insane10:21runs. And if we start to see a prolonged10:23selloff with the SPY, we could see UVXY10:26perform a lot better. Whenever we saw10:28the SPY sell off back in March, April,10:31and May, um, we actually saw the UVXY10:33start to pop off throughout that initial10:36March drop off. So, I'm going to really10:38keep my eyes on UVXY. It has potential10:41to move in some pretty crazy ways and10:43there's even been some scenarios in the10:44past where the markets dropped more and10:47UVXY has moved up well over 100% within10:50just a month or two. Absolutely. Let's10:52keep it close on the radar. Another10:54stock that's still close on watch is10:56Dell, ticker symbol DL to the downside.11:00They're in a major American tech company11:02uh in the computer hardware industry and11:06it has been relatively weak at its11:08recent highs but it still has been11:10inching higher by the day. There was11:13some positive chip news today especially11:15with Intel and SK Highix and I think11:18Dell overall is offering a good11:20riskreward playing into the downside in11:22a broader sense. Uh still year to date11:25the stock is up roughly 340% and over11:30the past year it's up roughly 340%11:33or so. Uh with the recent AI news of a11:36potential slowdown coming in and with11:38the recent profit taking that we've seen11:40with the market overall. I think it's11:42offering a good riskreward uh going11:44short here. And this isn't something I'm11:47looking for to necessarily fall11:50tomorrow. This is more of a potential11:52play that can play out over multiple11:54weeks and months. I think if we do see11:57Dell start to weaken, I wouldn't be11:59surprised if it got to below $400. Of12:02course, with a stock like Dell that has12:04this much momentum and that has12:07benefited tremendously from the economic12:09environment, especially over the past12:11couple of years, this is a little bit12:12risky because there's no telling exactly12:16when, if ever, it'll turn around.12:18>> Yeah, exactly. But whenever it does or12:20if it does, there could be some great12:22opportunities. So, I will be watching.12:24And those put options are probably12:26pretty low priced right now. And if we12:28start to see a drop, the premiums could12:30start to shoot through the roof. But12:32with my next setup, I'm looking at12:34Coinbase also for another downside move.12:37I know I talked about this one yesterday12:38to the downside, and it actually12:40performed pretty well today. Pretty much12:42all the way from open, even throughout12:44the FOMC event, Coinbase continued to12:47drop, closing down 4.42%. 42%. Now,12:50yesterday the Senate blocked the Clarity12:52Act. It only got a 50 votes uh in favor12:55for it with 49 against, obviously12:57failing to break the 60 vote threshold.13:00Needed to pass a bill through the13:01Senate. And the ve the failed vote is13:03really like a slap in the face to crypto13:06investors and some of the uh higher up13:08crypto individuals that have been13:10lobbying for this bill for the past13:12couple of months, even for the past year13:14or so probably. So, I'm really watching13:16Coinbase back to the downside here. And13:18there's a clear lower support zone13:20around 140 to 150. And I could see it13:23trading back into this zone over the13:25next few days, especially if we continue13:27to see Bitcoin weaken as well. I know13:30Bitcoin technically closed up green13:32today by 62%, but it started to really13:35put a lot of pressure on this recent13:37support and even broke under it13:39yesterday around 76,000. And if we see13:4275,000 breakdown tomorrow, I think13:45that's where we could see Coinbase start13:46to accelerate this sell-off.13:49>> Yeah, even Circle, ticker symbol CRCL,13:51had a rough day as well. That uh Clarity13:54Act news has been pretty rough for13:56crypto stocks in the short term. Another13:58area of the market that's still close on14:00the radar is energy. uh ETFs like XLE,14:05CR AK, and even UG are all close on the14:08radar as there is still a major energy14:11supply disruption. And it appears that14:14every day that goes by, we're starting14:16to feel those effects more. Gas prices14:18continue to rise and um refining14:21capacity is near max. Uh energy stocks14:25are close on the radar. XLE is more so14:28for broader coverage while UG is for gas14:31prices and CRK is for refining14:34companies. They've all been doing really14:36well and they each have their own set of14:37tradeoffs and they're still close on the14:39radar. Yeah, some days uh some performed14:42better than others. Kind of like today14:44CRK didn't move much, but UG actually14:47ended up popping off even though oil14:50ended up falling down today on some of14:51the geopolitical news. So keep your eyes14:54on these stocks. They are continuing to14:55move and they are hot in the short term.14:58But Mike, with our setups and plays out15:00of the way, let's go ahead and jump into15:02today's momentum plays. And with the15:04first one, I'm looking at ticker symbol15:06SPCX to the upside. SpaceX had a pretty15:09good opening move today and held up15:11pretty strong even with the FOMC15:13pullback. If SPCX breaks up above 153,15:17keep watching it to the upside. With the15:20next one, we have Archer Aviation,15:22ticker symbol ACR, to the downside.15:24>> Yeah, that was a nasty selloff by15:26Archer. If it breaks down under $512,15:29watch Archer to the downside. And then15:32with the last one, we have Boeing,15:33ticker symbol BA, also to the downside.15:36>> I think Boeing had one of the worst15:38reactions that I've seen to today's uh15:41FOMC event. That was a pretty nasty15:43move. If it breaks down under 197, keep15:46watching Boeing lower. It would really15:48solidify a good move underneath 200 if15:50it kept selling off tomorrow.15:52>> These three stocks are on the radar for15:54potential continuations tomorrow if and15:57only if they break through the levels15:59listed. These stocks are volatile, so16:01always protect yourself and focus on16:02making smart, disciplined trading16:04decisions above all else. But we also16:07want to jump right into today's $1.816:10million big money trade. Today we are16:13looking at ticker symbol V, Visa. Uh the16:16trader here traded the 370 strike put16:19options that expire on November 20th of16:232026. I think this is a pretty16:25interesting trade as as we can see Visa16:28did uh perform relatively weak today and16:31the Fed did increase interest rates.16:35This is going to tighten the economy and16:37a company like Visa might get hurt from16:40this as it might dampen consumer16:42spending and just slow down the economy16:45a bit. Uh I think it's a good sign for16:47this trade to see Visa already falling16:50off this news. And I do like that recent16:52rejection around 385 as well. These puts16:55are at the money so it's like a pretty16:57equal balance of leverage and how easy17:00it is for this trade to be profitable.17:03It also has a fair amount of time but17:06not like an extremely large amount of17:09time or like an extremely uh like short17:11amount of time either. So yeah, very17:13interesting. Yeah, I find the setup with17:15Visa on the daily chart to be very17:18fascinating. Whenever I look at the17:19daily, it recently attempted to rally17:22and break out with a lot of other bank17:24stocks and financials doing so well17:26throughout 2026. But Visa recently also17:30pulled back under previous uh all-time17:32highs of 375. And that's a big deal17:35because that 375 area is acting as major17:38resistance. And now we actually saw Visa17:42confirm off of that resistance today.17:44And not only does it line up at17:46resistance, it also lines up with this17:48overall uptrend starting to end with17:51that confirmation today. So I find this17:53play pretty intriguing. It doesn't have17:55a ton of time going out to November. So,17:57they're looking for more of like a17:59couple month drop, which could make18:00sense as we start to see the shock of18:02higher interest rates actually flow18:04through the market a little bit. So, uh,18:07very interesting trade setup. It's also18:09fairly large with $1.8 million put in.18:11And with it being the 370 strike, pretty18:14close to the money, I have a lot more18:16confidence with this than something that18:18if this was like the 360 strike puts or18:20it was very far out of the money, for18:22example.18:23>> Yeah. So, let's keep it close on the18:25radar. And if you're new to the channel,18:27welcome and consider obliterating that18:29subscribe button for every single18:31trading day. We cover crazy18:33multi-million dollar big money trades18:35just like this one, stocks to keep on18:37the radar, upcoming news, important18:38information, past stats, and basically18:41everything you need to know about18:42markets, and more. It takes a long time18:44to make these videos each day, and if18:46you subscribe, you'll get them18:48recommended to you more often. But let's18:50also give a giant shout out to today's18:52member of the day, ZTEC94 in the Stocked18:56Up Discord, who had some great profits18:58with AMD today. Huge shout out to you.19:00It's awesome to see this and keep on19:03rolling. Thank you guys so much for19:05watching and let's crush it in the19:07market tomorrow.
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