Transcript of Have Wall Street Trapped Retails Investors?
FX Evolution - Trading Academy
0:00The margin debt statistics from Wall0:01Street are in and the results are going0:04to shock you whether you're an investor0:06or trader right now with numbers that we0:08haven't seen since the 2000s or even0:112007.0:13So with transportations also dropping,0:16what should we be paying attention to as0:18trades and investors? The New York0:20composite is still weak. The S&P is0:23rallying after a big rate hike and0:26certain markets underneath the hood are0:28looking better than others.0:30Back with the last 24 hours tell us a0:32lot with the latest sentiment reports0:34giving us an absolutely shocking number.0:37Yes, what retail think and maybe what0:39Wall Street are doing are totally0:41different things. So join us today as we0:43look at the good, the bad and the ugly0:45when it comes to stocks, commodities and0:47cryptos. I'll see you very soon. We've0:49got a lot to unpack together.0:55Well, welcome back to one of the largest0:56daily shows on the planet when it comes0:58to markets around the world. We had some1:00big moves in tech over the last 241:02hours, but today we need to also discuss1:04the latest in macro, Wall Street flows1:06and a couple of new number ones with1:09some shocking sentiment reports and1:10margin stats that have just come out.1:13Hello, my name's Thomas. I've been in1:14markets for 17 years and if it's your1:16first time here, it's great to have you1:18here. We talk about price action, data1:20and flows from a behavioral psychology1:22standpoint. What is Wall Street doing1:25that takes advantage of our human1:27psychology and how can we better defend1:30ourselves from some of their traps? Also1:32recognize them to potential gain some1:34opportunities. Let's start though by1:36taking a look at the latest in1:38psychology when it comes to these1:40headlines. At JC Parrots X over on X1:44itself basically posted this and I think1:46it's funny. The economist here have1:49their latest big kind of headline which1:51says, "Can the AI arms race be stopped?"1:54And you can see what it kind of looks1:56like. Now, whenever you see everybody1:58talking about something, it generally2:00means it's wrong and I noticed that the2:02time also had something similar. This2:04one here posted from uh Bianco Research2:08and basically showing again time how2:10dangerous are you the AI tipping point.2:13So, everyone's talking about it, but2:15does that mean that it comes to2:16fruition? Generally, in history anyway,2:19it means it's not quite here yet.2:21Remember when everyone thinks it's2:23something, it's generally not there.2:25Let's talk about something that is2:26happening though, which is US margin2:28debt over time. And guys, it's a pretty2:30shocking statistic when you look at it2:32in this form. But, like any data point2:34and a lot of you guys yelled at me last2:36time in the comments, I saw it. Don't2:38worry, I have many ways to look at this.2:40The US margin debt over time looks2:42shocking, but you have to think of it in2:44a different way. It's kind of like when2:45you look at Warren Buffett's cash pile2:48and you say, "Wow, it's like $4002:50billion in his fund." And of course,2:52that is the highest on record. Yes, it2:53is. But, what about as a percentage2:55of his overall2:59asset under management? Well, that3:01changes the game a little bit. Either3:03way though, this is the largest amount3:05that we've ever seen and the latest3:07statistics actually from August post3:09this at a $37 billion upgrade here. So,3:14the basically we're at about 4.5%3:17of GDP overall in terms of debt. Now,3:21that alone is also the highest that3:23we've ever seen. I've just used quickly3:25an AI tool to put this together. So,3:27take it with a little bit of a grain of3:29salt, but it is still pretty accurate.3:31Basically, shows here that the margin3:33debt relative to GDP is a very different3:35story to equity market value. So, you3:38can see here that if you take the debt3:40and you actually combine it to the3:42market cap value, it's not so scary.3:44It's about 1.55%.3:47Now, have we had it higher in the past3:48before the global financial crisis? It3:50was a lot higher. Before the dot-com3:53crash, it was also a little bit higher.3:55But, as a percentage of GDP, yeah, it's3:58pretty high. Almost tapping into 4.5%4:01at the latest read here in August. And4:03this is pretty shocking because4:05basically what it's telling us is that4:07there's a considerable amount of debt in4:08these markets. And we all saw what4:10happened to South Korea recently with4:12everybody taking on margin debt, and4:15then the markets themselves, of course,4:17absolutely collapsing upon themselves,4:19forcing regulators to come in and really4:21kind of strangling the market, not4:22allowing the market to go back to those4:24highs or even come out of the kangaroo4:27style due to all of the regulation4:29changes. Now, it looks easy in4:31hindsight, but remember we were4:33reporting on this before any of this4:35stuff happened. The fact that in Hong4:37Kong, the number one exchange-traded4:39fund was a two-times levered SK Hynix4:43single stock. That That is correct. That4:45is exactly what happened. We also saw4:47people taking their pension funds4:49and slamming them into basically any4:51form of leveraged semiconductor asset.4:54These are the types of things you look4:55for. Either way, we may have come off4:58the peak of margin, and that actually is5:00in itself a very important point here in5:02markets. And something we saw similarly5:05in 2021 and during other bullish runs.5:08So, yes, it's not as high as per market5:11cap, but there are other ways to cut5:13this as well. And in my case, I do think5:15that it's worthwhile watching. So, we'll5:17continue to track it throughout the next5:196 to 12 months as I think it could be5:21one of the leading reads that we look5:23for if the market is about to actually5:25start to sell.5:26Let's talk about souring in terms of5:29human psychology. The latest in the Fear5:31& Greed Index. We're at 30. We were at5:34like 20s just the other day. Now, we're5:36at 30. And this post here kind of shows5:39us that there was a bit of fear in the5:40markets. But, take a look at the latest5:42AAII Sentiment Survey, and it does go to5:45show why the markets rallied off that5:47weekly 20 moving average, guys. Wow.5:50This is wild. 53.3%5:54of respondents this week said that they5:55were bearish on markets over the next 65:57months. Only 17.96:00were neutral, which is extremely low6:02compared to of course the historical6:04average, and 28.8%6:07were bullish. And this kind of goes to6:08show why we're seeing a recovery right6:11now. And if this kind of holds up, these6:13types of reads, I mean 53.3%,6:15you guys know if you've watched this6:17channel for a long time, we don't see6:18this very often. We only usually see6:21this during a full-on market6:22capitulation. 53 to 60%, that's usually6:26reformed to something like a 10 to 15%6:29decline. So, it just goes to show how6:31powerful the press is at the moment, how6:33powerful the fear is, especially when it6:36comes to AI and debt, and how people are6:38dividing on those lines, especially6:40coming into elections and everything6:42else that's going on. Now, Blue Collar6:43Duck actually went through and had a6:44look at the data around this. So, the6:46S&P 500 AAII Bulls fall below 29% with6:51the index within 10% of its all-time6:53highs. Now, how has that gone in the6:55past? Well, you might think it's really6:58bullish, and I guess if you're looking7:00at a 1-month change, it kind of is. And7:02this is really interesting when you're7:04considering what we're generally going7:06into during a normal midterm election7:09year. Usually September, the back end is7:11where the weakness happens. We're now7:13coming into that period. And of course,7:15October is the worst month, at least if7:18you look at midterm election years. But7:20is that about to change? I mean, this7:21read alone, which you can't use by7:23itself, is pretty strong towards of7:27course being bullish. It's actually a7:28100% read during previous periods. So,7:31it's going to be interesting to see how7:32this flip-flops around. And HB Research,7:35uh shout out to you over on X at HB7:38Research X, basically shows here that7:40this actual difference between the bulls7:43and bears, -24.57:45is the lowest reading since the post7:47tariff crash. So, basically, the7:50sentiment is shocking in the markets,7:52and that's part of the reason why I7:54think we've got a little bit of a7:55bullish hammer potentially appearing7:57here into the net expiration. And do8:00remember, we do have a witching event.8:03This basically means that huge amounts8:05of options are expiring over the next 248:06hours. Interesting, Polycarp and a few8:09others put this together, but Polycarp8:10FX over and X basically said that8:13over the last 36 years, basically, the8:17September triple witching event has8:19closed lower in 27 of those last 36. So,8:23look, is it a statistic? Yes. Does it8:25mean it's going to happen? No. But it's8:27interesting to see that this next8:2924-hour event, the Friday event, can8:32sometimes be quite volatile. So, just8:34remember, it can come through, and8:36that's because there's billions and8:37billions and billions of dollars of8:39options all expiring. And there was a8:41lot on the line this week with that8:42interest rate hike. It ended up not8:45eventuating into everything that people8:47feared because everybody voted in8:48unison. Plus,8:50you know, in general, it kind of sounded8:52like Powell. I mean, like war sounded8:54like Powell. I mean, I don't know if you8:55guys noticed that. Let me know in the8:56comments down below. It was like they8:58AI'd each other or something, and they9:00started talking. But in general, this is9:03very important for the markets because9:04they want to see that the Fed is meant9:06to be separate, and of course, is making9:08their own decisions. And at least for9:10now, that's the evidence that we have.9:12Another thing that I thought was really9:13interesting cuz we had that number one9:15transaction in home builders just the9:17other day is the latest data coming out9:19here from Lennar. And this is, of9:21course, in the US, you guys would know9:23it. I didn't I don't really know it that9:25well cuz I'm Australian. But basically,9:27we went from a 511K9:30in 2022 in terms of the average new9:32order on houses. This just shows you9:34that K-shaped economy, guys, to 359k9:38today. That's a massive decline in the9:41overall expectations people are having9:43and it shows that people are struggling9:45to meet their repayments. Basically,9:47houses have had to become smaller and in9:50general, there's a huge decline in9:53momentum in terms of people being able9:55to take on these debts. Now, this9:57company has of course moved towards it,9:59but what could this mean for that new10:01number one transaction at support on10:04ITB. We'll take a look at that later in10:06today's video. A big one though, I think10:08they're showing the sign of the times.10:10Now, a couple of other bits of data10:12here. This one here shared from Polybius10:14FX sourced from Bloomberg. You can see10:16here10:17shows go with the flow. Basically, the10:19Q's notched its largest ever monthly10:22inflow in August.10:24And this is kind of showing, I guess,10:27you know, the possibility of a turning10:28point for the most important sector in10:31the markets, which is basically, you10:33know, semiconductors and technology10:35stocks. So, you want to be watching10:37those fairly closely and I think that10:39means we have to put the blinkers on and10:40start watching it again. If you saw our10:42previous video, we looked at the last10:44kind of one month or at least we've10:46looked at this a few times where we've10:48checked out the sectors. And remember on10:49this channel, we've followed the10:51software sector. We followed gold10:53recently. Of course, we followed oil oil10:55oil oil oil oil every single incarnation10:57of oil because that's where the money's10:59been. It turns out there's only about11:00five sectors that were actually up over11:02the last one month and guess what? They11:04were those plus bio plus healthcare. So,11:07it just goes to show the importance of11:09sector analysis and if the Q's start11:11notching really good numbers, then that11:13is going to be a sign of potential11:15bullishness. And even though you might11:16be feeling bearish or you might be like11:18the doom is coming and the end of the11:19world's happening, you might be right,11:21but again, timing is everything and if11:24the market start rallying up, even if11:25you think it's crazy, well, the reality11:28is the markets will do what they want to11:29do. So, this weekly close, especially if11:32it closes like it is right now, could be11:34actually pivotal to seeing whether we11:36can buck the trend of the late September11:39doldrums or not. We'll find out very11:41soon. Million dollar freight, this chart11:43here from Bloomberg as well, shared from11:45Barchart over on X, basically shows that11:48everybody knows is that everything to do11:52with freight and containers is up a lot.11:54In fact, if you saw our video a few11:56sessions ago, we talked about those11:59freight container ETFs. My goodness,12:01they're absolutely skyrocketing. One of12:03the keen observers here in the channel,12:06obviously shout out to you, you showed12:08it to us and although we'd been all over12:09crack diesel in terms of talking about12:11it, just goes to show the best trade was12:13actually in the freight traders.12:15That being said though, most people12:17don't look at that most of the time.12:18Let's now have a look at five-year12:20corporate CDs. So basically credit12:22default default swaps. I'm not going to12:24ignore this chart. This one here from12:25Ryan Detrick and Top Down Research. Just12:27a quick reminder if it's your first time12:29here that we've got a real risk in tech12:31according to the bonds market and the12:33bonds market is12:35cool as a cucumber when it comes to12:37bonds in the general sectors. Now if12:39that changes, we'll be the first to12:41update you, but it hasn't happened and12:44we often say bonds bonds bonds because12:46if the bonds aren't freaking out guys,12:47why should we be freaking out? Now this12:49chart here from Tavi Costa just kind of12:51shows that overall we have a huge amount12:54of movement in of course the metals and12:57not that much in yield since then yields12:58have gone up a little bit of course, but13:00basically are we going to have to13:02capture these runaway prices? Remember13:06if copper's going up, it tells us that13:09we've got expansion and at this stage13:11what's happened is we've got expansion13:13across the board13:15and it's because of data centers and13:16basically CapEx spend and I just saw a13:19video today supposedly Tesla and SpaceX13:22are building some kind of13:23the biggest, I think it's the biggest13:25warehouse in the world or the biggest13:27factory in the world. And it's in Texas13:29somewhere, and that thing looks13:31obscenely large, and they've just13:33started breaking ground on it. Go check13:34it out if you're interested, maybe we'll13:35talk about it. But all of these types of13:37projects, although they don't hit the13:39general economy, they hit certain areas,13:41and of course that's allowing GDP to13:43grow, which means that the stock market13:46is still in a growth curve. Remember, if13:47you've got inflation plus growth, then13:49you have an inflationary boom. That13:52affects certain markets in different13:53ways. It's not necessarily the most13:55negative thing, and it tends to be good13:57for things like oil, which it has been13:59so far. And that's why we had it on in14:01January. We kind of saw this14:02inflationary boom coming back. And so14:05far that has been one of the best14:06things, and interestingly gold's doing14:08well, which it shouldn't be, because it14:10should actually suffer a little bit of14:12inflation. So people are wondering14:13whether this is a freakout14:16from the rest of the world. And this14:18latest chart here from Hedgeye over on X14:21and also Bloomberg, you can see here14:23source from Bloomberg, has gold14:25overtaking treasuries in central bank FX14:28reserves. Now, this will surprise nobody14:30because it's been a chart that we've14:31seen a couple of times over the last14:32couple of months, but it just goes to14:34show again that there's something14:37happening here where every single major14:40kind of central bank is is starting to14:43move towards the oldest currency in the14:46world, and that's gold. And that's a14:47great sign if you like gold, but also a14:50bit of a worry because it means that why14:52is gold holding in such a high interest14:53rate environment? It's because there is14:55a real freakout plus debasement plus all14:58these other things that are happening in14:59the world. Now, let's take a look here15:01at home builders. So you can see15:04that home builders have come through15:06with the largest transaction ever. This15:08was 2 days ago, I think, from Volume15:10Leaders. Now, since then home builders15:12have come under some pressure, but it15:14just goes to show, remember a few years15:16ago I hated this sector a lot, and I15:18still don't like it because to me it is15:20not going to do too well in a high15:22interest rate environment and a big15:24transactions coming I think the next15:26move could tell us a lot about whether15:27bonds are also going to start freaking15:29out. Zop also had a big transaction on15:32it the other day. We saw this last week.15:35We also saw of course since then US oil15:38and UK oil hit cross correlation highs,15:41which we talked about in the last video15:42and the video before that. Since then15:44oil's come off a bit, the market's15:45rallied a bit. So if the market keeps15:47going down, we could be in for a little15:50bit of a softening in the oil price.15:52Even with all the news and stuff.15:53Remember it went up $25 and a barrel15:57very quickly in less than a month. So15:59things happened pretty quickly there.16:01UVXY, couple large trades came through16:03suggests that there could be some16:05volatility around. Who knows? 20 25th16:08and 64th. For about you're going to like16:11this one because you're like, "Oh yeah,16:13look at that volatility come back in."16:15We'll see whether it eventuates guys,16:16but yeah, I still want to share both16:18sides with you. It's important to look16:20at both the bull and the bear side. Of16:22course the bulls seem to have a little16:23bit going for them as of the last 216:25days.16:26You wouldn't think so with the rate16:27hike, but they do in terms of just the16:30sheer negative sentiment out there.16:33But the bears, I mean that's a good16:35transaction for them. Bitcoin ETF flows,16:37I haven't updated it, but let me just16:38tell you this. They are still negative16:41for the last session. So we'll look at16:42the price action later in today's video.16:44Now in terms of the last 24 hours, gold.16:47Ooh, gold did pretty well. Look at that.16:49GDX best or second best sector. Solar16:52coming back from the dead there as well.16:54Same with clean energy and16:55semiconductors also coming back along16:58with metals, biotech, and tech. Now the17:00good thing is tech and semiconductors.17:03Now that's important because remember17:05we've been kangarooing all over the17:06place like this. Whoa, the most boring17:08market of all time here guys. And that's17:11probably what your chart might look like17:13at the moment with all your reads on it.17:14And the thing is maybe wife or partner17:17comes in and says, "What are you doing?17:18That looks like, you know, 2-year-old17:20painting." So, basically in this case,17:23what we've got is a market that if it's17:25led by tech on the way out, Magnificent17:27Seven, something we've been looking at,17:29then that could actually create further17:31bullish leg. And of course, Tom Lee's17:33come out and said these types of things.17:34He's changed his mind a little bit. And17:36you have to change your mind. You have17:37to be flexible. A lot of people say,17:39"Oh, you said this rah rah rah rah rah17:40rah." Yeah, but things change. It's like17:43Stanley Druckenmiller says, you know,17:44sometimes markets, he reserves the right17:46in a week's time to change his mind if17:48you have to. If you're not flexible and17:49adaptable, then how are you going to17:52survive in a in a fast-paced market that17:55sometimes does change the game? The key17:57is though, what things actually make you18:00change? You have to not be like18:01flip-flopping all over the place, but18:03instead you need to be saying, "Okay,18:04this actually changes for a longer18:06period." And have some conviction in18:08that. Paying 40 times has never paid18:10well. Now, this is based on something18:13that I almost wish I never saw back in18:14the day. You know what I mean? Like it's18:16Whenever I saw it, I felt like I18:17couldn't unsee it. This is of course18:19based on the Shiller. And the problem18:21with the Shiller is it hasn't worked for18:23ages. So, the Shiller has just gone up18:25and up and up and up and up. And the18:26reason why I say I don't I wish I never18:28saw it is always was inkling in the back18:29of my mind. It's kind of like knowing a18:31little bit too much about the US dollar18:33yen and the fact that Japan is in all18:35sorts of debt woes. It always keeps that18:38little bit of the monster in the back of18:40my mind where I've got this kind of like18:415% Yeah, it's pretty expensive kind of18:44thing. That being said, we are starting18:46to get into the twilight zones. That is18:4840 plus. Yeah, I mean history's not been18:51kind to these levels. We've seen this18:53during several of the crashes over18:55history where the Shiller PE has gone18:57high. If the market is to go with its19:00closest ally at the moment, then it19:02might even rally to a new high. And then19:04we could still see volatility coming19:06into midterm elections. And I think19:09you've got to say, "Look, anything can19:11happen. Price action will be ultimate.19:13Next 24 hours might even be important to19:15the weekly closes, but yeah, we're still19:17not out of the tight range and we'll19:19show you why when we look at the charts19:20very soon. Quick reminder, guys, if19:23you're interested in finding out a19:25little bit more about what we do, learn19:27from some of my years of experience in19:29the markets both on the institutional19:30side and of course the retail side. One19:33chart, one story, one market lesson,19:35completely free, links in the19:36description down below. Got a new one19:37coming in a couple of days as well. I19:39also I think this one was a pretty good19:41read as well. The technology was right.19:43But the investors still lost. Ooh, it19:45sucks to be right and and then wrong.19:48Let's have a look now at the lead19:49indicators. First up, JP2Y.19:52So, basically the Japanese bonds. Ooh, a19:56bit nasty, aren't they? Look at them go.19:58Now, the market doesn't care till the19:59market cares. So, what are we looking20:01at? Why are we not seeing the overall20:05option adjusted spreads going up? So, in20:08general this rate here hasn't freaked20:10out, therefore we've said bonds probably20:11haven't freaked out. We're always20:13looking at things like high yield junk.20:16As I I told you guys several times20:17before, if high yield junk isn't20:19dropping other than just dropping with20:22yields, which is fine, then it's not20:24really a risk problem. So, we're not20:25seeing a risk problem yet from the bonds20:27market and you might say, "Why not?"20:29Well, I don't know. But the main point20:30is it isn't happening. So, if it isn't20:32happening, again we can't freak out.20:34There have been a couple of interesting20:36things that have started to occur20:37though. We've seen a weakness in20:39financials. So, that's starting to come20:41through. If that keeps bleeding, then20:42that's showing that there's a unlikely20:45kind of amount of lending going on. As20:48debt creates growth, guys, a lot of the20:50time, you know, we do want to see20:52lending. So, KRE, XLF, they want to be20:55on your charts. You want to be checking20:56these out quite a lot and watching them20:58quite closely. Treasuries as well21:01actually rebounded a bit as over last 2421:03hours. You can see they've come up. And21:05the main reason is of course yields. You21:07know, we can see here since that21:08announcement of the rate hike, uh even21:10though the markets pricing in two more21:12rate hikes potentially, you know, next21:14year, maybe even three, um this year21:16one, maybe two next year, uh the markets21:19themselves have stabilized after the21:21news, which is pretty normal. We're21:23still watching Carvana. We're on Carvana21:25watch here on the channel. Just having a21:27look at uh auto loans. What's going on21:29there, guys? Hm?21:31I saw that people are supposedly21:33refinancing under water. It's pretty21:36pretty shocking what's going on there in21:37auto loans, but again, market doesn't21:39care till the market cares. And the VIX21:41got collapsed upon the last 24 hours, 4821:44hours. You can see here back down to21:4515.45.21:47Nothing can scare the markets at this21:49stage. RSP equal weighted market again21:51going down. Now, you might think, "Oh,21:53that's super bearish."21:54It's not if we get led by tech out. So,21:58you really want to see tech moving up.22:00And of course, last 24 hours, we can go22:02have a look here at the tech sector.22:03It's been a while. We'll set a little22:05little alerts here above here. We want22:07to make sure if it goes to a new high,22:09we know about it. But, you can see kind22:11of stabilization. I think most22:13interestingly, we actually got Remember,22:15we had the biggest transaction or one of22:17the biggest transactions in22:18semiconductors the other day. The Korean22:21market started to rally up a little bit22:23here. So, we've got little alert here22:24above the higher high. Uh semiconductors22:27had an okay 24 hours. Little island22:30reversal down here in the lows. So,22:32there's something going on in tech. Is22:34it enough to go off yet? Probably not.22:36Uh but, there have been a couple of22:38observations here that we've made about22:40improvements. Also, the MAGS versus SPY22:42had a better session. So, you can see22:45here Magnificent Seven on the improve.22:48And if you haven't been looking at it,22:49of course we have.22:50We like to look at these charts, guys.22:52And a few of you have mentioned as well,22:53"Look at the Magnificent Seven." Would22:55we be making a video about this on the22:57weekend if it made new high? I think we22:59would. Why? Because if the big stock is23:01going up, guys, the biggest in the23:03world, 40% plus of the S&P, yes, it's23:06concentrated. Yes, it's weird, but it's23:08doing it. If it goes above, then it's23:11hard to stop the freight train, you know23:12what I mean? So, there you go. That's23:14what happens. Let's have a look at the23:16New York uh Stock Exchange Composite,23:18actually a bit of improvement over last23:2024 hours, slight improvement there, but23:23still sitting at around 31%23:25of stocks only above their 50-day, which23:27is not shocking. I would have preferred23:30to a 20, but we did hit a couple of23:32those net expiration puts. So, remember23:35we had23:36What was it? 7,500 on the S&P, and we23:39had 700 on the Qs. And I would guess23:41that not many channels were talking23:43about both those levels, maybe they23:44were, but the weekly 20 on the S&P, oh,23:47look at it go. Hits it, guys, so the23:49chef's kiss there, and it just goes23:51slamming. And it just goes to show the23:54importance of bringing out again those23:56kind of key levels together, plus the23:58importance of the 20 weekly If you were24:00like, let's say, completely like one of24:02those memes, you know, the stupid meme24:04where you're like,24:06"Market go up, I buy." Well, you know,24:08in many ways the the best moving average24:11is the 20, because think about it, it's24:13just so well used, and it just tends to24:16be pretty damn good. I mean, of course,24:18nothing is uh for certain, but yeah, I24:20do like it. Speaking of the 20, copper.24:23Look at that. It's actually rallied back24:25up. The old doctor is still in line,24:27like we've been talking about, we need24:28the doctor to be in line, otherwise you24:30got problems in the economy. Also, some24:33good signs, gold managed to get above24:35that previous little high here, the24:37first little signs of life here for24:39gold. And maybe if it can get above24:414,500, it'll squeeze out the nasty24:43shorters.24:44Maybe you're one of the nasty shorters.24:46Look, I wish you, whichever way you are24:47on it, I hope you hope you win, but in24:50this case, uh the head and shoulders24:52that everyone was talking about so far24:54getting rejected. And as I've talked24:55about, this little secret demand might24:57be part of it. So far, it's doing it25:00better. Silver also improved, managed to25:02get through 70-65-25,25:05which is an improvement, not through 6825:07yet, but still a little bit better than25:08it was. Let's have a look at Chinese25:10markets. They're barely holding on.25:12Really terrible market, frankly, this25:14one. And not much has been happening25:17there. We've we've been watching it for25:18ages, but I feel like it's been watching25:20paint dry. Nvidia, bit of a rally, had a25:22good session as we mentioned25:24semiconductors were up25:26before, but Nvidia not at a new all-time25:28high. So, really it's kind of just25:31stuck in a range. And US oil pulled back25:34from the resistance that we also saw,25:37not on XLV, on UK oil. So, we saw both25:41of these hitting into their first levels25:43of major resistance. And the reason why25:45they've come down off this level, guys,25:47is just the sheer increase. You know,25:49people forget that's a huge increase.25:5128% like a month. Like 28%25:55onto our browsers, onto our cars. That25:58sucks. You know, that sucks for25:59everybody, especially you know, people26:01doing it tough. So, you know, the thing26:03is this is a huge move and it's going to26:06what price actually likes to do is it26:07likes to do a bit of a pit. So, it can26:10sit there for a little while and then26:12rally on through and that that could be26:14the next opportunity. But in this case,26:17it's found some resistance and that's26:18also leading into you know, things like26:21crack as well, which which is still26:23increasing. So, diesel is still26:25increasing, the barrel prices aren't,26:27but this is really the real cost to all26:30of us. And um26:32I think the longer this goes on for, the26:33more pressure it's going to put on to26:35everything. And it's really starting to26:38put some damage in from what I'm seeing26:40at least in the reports down in the26:42the kind of real economy, like what's26:45really happening. Let us know your26:46stories down below. How is this26:48affecting people around you? That is26:49ridiculous. And when it comes time to26:51plant the next crops, when it comes time26:54to do some of these new things, you26:56know, I just don't think people are26:57going to be able to afford it. And um26:59yeah, it's it's shocking there. We're27:01also seeing similar things, of course,27:03in the agricultural space. Now, let's27:05move over to you the Qs. The Qs, the Qs.27:08716 off 700. Boom. Weekly 20. Beautiful27:12synergy across the board there.27:14The markets, they might be trying to get27:16towards 720, 730. We can see here net27:18expirations all sitting on top of that27:21720 level. So, that's where the27:23resistance is. You'd think the markets27:25are trying to aim for it. Maybe they'll27:27uh try testing it and see what happens.27:29But, that's the Qs and the S&P. Nice big27:32bullish hammer if it closes this way.27:33And again, it's at 7681, but I had a27:37look at the market. And if you look here27:39on the futures, I mean, you you'd think27:407750 is the major technical level. So,27:43it'd be interesting to see if we do27:44approach that level. Does the net27:47expiration actually move up to 7750?27:51Uh which is I assume where the big27:52resistance is. Either way, an27:54improvement and a lot of people are27:56going to be seeing this as some kind of27:57crazy flag should it break through these27:59key levels. Too early to tell exactly,28:01but bouncing off the 20 is a good sign.28:04If we rally like this and then dump28:05through the 20, that is the negative.28:07That's what we don't want to see uh from28:09the technical side. On Bitcoin, nice28:12little rally off the put support here on28:13IBIT. Dumped, rallied up. Good. That's28:16actually not too bad. And if we have a28:18look here, oh, that's not what I want.28:20If we have a look here on Bitcoin,28:22get rid of that chart, then you'll see28:24here a little bit of a rally.28:27And basically, it's come back up off the28:29lows. So, if we go to the 4-hour, uh28:32then yeah, this could be a little trap28:34towards shorters. Do we know that yet?28:36No. We need to take out things like28:3880,000 to really show signs. And as I've28:41been talking about, you know, rallies in28:43current level is a pit. That's fine. You28:46can have the patience to see what28:48happens next. The flows have been28:49negative, so no surprise as why it's28:51down. But if that changes, we get28:53suddenly a squeeze day, we see these28:55reports of liquidations and everyone28:57kind of getting squeezed out, um then29:00that's a good sign for Bitcoin. For now,29:02the small time frames, look the sellers29:03are in control. The large time frames,29:06the buyers or the medium time frames,29:08the buyers are kind of starting to29:09commit a little bit. So, we'll see what29:11happens. It's an event It's a a really29:13good chart to actually be watching. And29:15um I'm really interested to follow it29:16together on the show. Guys, remember29:19it's the witching event, so take that of29:23what you may, but it could be a little29:24bit volatile. If you're interested in29:26finding out a little bit more about what29:27we do over at FX EA Trading Academy,29:29then check out the links in the29:30description down below. Remember, one29:31chart, one story, one market lesson.29:33Learn from some of my, you know, good29:35things and bad things that I've learned29:37over the years. That's completely free.29:39Links in the description down below.29:41Thanks so much, guys. You have a29:42fantastic session. Thank you so much for29:44watching. Bye for now.
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