Transcript of The Stock Market Is Walking Into Something It Can’t Stop
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0:00The stock market might be walking itself0:01into a trap. This morning, Trump issued0:04a new warning to the Houthis as Saudi0:06Arabia launched retaliatory strikes and0:09the group threatened to attack the0:10kingdom's oil facilities. Anthropic is0:13set to reveal their financials for the0:15first time on Wednesday, giving the0:17world some insight as we head into0:19what's set to be the biggest IPO in0:21history. This comes after South Korea's0:23stock market just suffered one of its0:26worst weeks on record and Iran is0:28reportedly strengthening def fenses0:30around its nuclear facilities and0:32preparing its population for war after0:34the midterms. Today, we cover what to0:36watch out for in the markets, some big0:38developments, and where the action is0:40right now.0:45>> This morning, Trump posted on Truth0:47Social condemning the Houthis' recent0:49strikes on Riyadh, accusing them of0:51artificially driving up oil prices and0:54saying, quote, "I'll be there after the0:56elections and I will never forget." The0:58Houthis declared today that Saudi1:00Aramco's oil facilities are legitimate1:03targets for strikes, telling workers and1:05civilians to evacuate the area. Off that1:08news, the Saudis immediately struck1:10back, hitting an oil station in Yemen in1:13retaliation for the Riyadh airport1:15attacks on Saturday. After these oil1:17station attacks, a Houthi spokesman1:20responded with a vow that any further1:22strikes in that region will be met with1:24a harsh and painful response towards1:26Riyadh. Over in Iran, today it was1:29reported that they're strengthening1:31defenses around sensitive locations like1:33their nuclear sites ahead of potential1:35US attacks after the November midterm1:37elections. Iran has also been preparing1:40its civilians for war, holding rallies,1:43sending paramilitaries to read war1:45stories to young children, and1:47advertising training sessions on firing1:49defensive missiles. Trump even posted on1:52Truth Social Monday night saying that he1:54doesn't believe China and Russia are1:55helping Iran at all, saying the two1:57countries simply have too much to lose.2:00>> And the global AI trade is facing a2:02test. South Korea's stock market is2:05officially down more than 15% over the2:07last 5 days. That sell-off accelerated2:10today with the index extending its2:12single-day loss to more than 7% as tech2:16stocks got hit the hardest. Like we2:18covered yesterday, the reason behind2:20this was CXMT's progress on a new memory2:23architecture, which has caused Micron2:25and Samsung to fall 9.7%2:29and 12.98%2:30over the past 48 hours. Both of these2:33stocks are also breaking through uh some2:35recent uptrends as well. And the S&P 5002:39has never been as fragmented as it is2:41right now. The 52-week correlation2:44between the equal-weighted and the2:46market-cap weighted S&P 500 has fallen2:49to a record low of 0.67,2:52down 0.25 points since August 2025.2:56This measures how closely the broader2:58market moves with the traditional S&P3:01500, showing a growing disconnect3:03between most stocks and the mega-cap3:06companies actually driving the index.3:09>> For nearly 15 years before the pandemic,3:11this correlation stayed between 0.953:15and 0.99,3:16and even during the 2000 dot-com bubble,3:19it never fell below 0.85.3:22That's pretty concerning. But today,3:24billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones3:27said that 2027 could be extremely3:29challenging for stocks, calling it the3:31worst outlook for US stock flows since3:342002. Jones says corporate buybacks and3:37mergers have helped push stocks higher3:39by reducing the number of available3:41shares, but upcoming IPOs from Anthropic3:44and OpenAI, along with more stock3:46offerings to fund AI spending, could3:48reverse that trend by flooding the3:50market with new shares. But, despite the3:53recent sell-off in chip stocks, AI3:55spending continues to surge with3:57investment projected to reach nearly 4%4:00of US GDP through 2032, far surpassing4:04the historic spending booms in4:05railroads, highways, and canals. And4:08with so much money pouring into AI,4:10investors are about to get a closer look4:12at the finances of one of the industry's4:15biggest companies. Anthropic is set to4:17disclose its third-quarter financials4:19for the first time ever on Wednesday,4:22presenting the numbers to a group of4:23institutional investors gathered at its4:26headquarters. The meeting comes as the4:28company prepares for what could be the4:30largest IPO in stock market history.4:33>> Very interesting. And the gap between4:36the S&P 500's earnings yield to the4:3810-year Treasury yield has fallen to4:40minus 1.5 percentage points, its lowest4:44level since 2009. That's a 440 basis4:47point decline since 2022, and it is the4:51largest 5-year drop since the 1970s.4:54So, the S&P 500 is now on track for its4:56third consecutive year of negative4:59equity risk premium, the longest streak5:01since 2002. This essentially means5:0410-year Treasuries are offering higher5:06yields right now than stocks, even5:09though the 10-year Treasuries carry less5:11risk. This historically has signaled5:13strong investor risk appetite and5:16potentially stretched stock valuations.5:19The S&P 500 is also experiencing an5:22unprecedented earnings boom with profits5:25projected to jump 34% in 2026 and5:28another 15% in 2027, totaling roughly5:3254% growth in 2 years.5:35>> That is insane, Mike. But, before we5:37move forward, if you guys are not yet5:39subscribed, make sure to destroy that5:42subscribe button. For every single5:43video, we try to put out the best5:45information for stock traders, covering5:48all the big news and updates from the5:49day along with even a few plays and5:51interesting charts and setups sprinkled5:54in as well. So, if you are not yet5:55subscribed, make sure to destroy that5:58subscribe button. But, looking at the5:59spy for today and the past couple6:02trading days, it got a little bit choppy6:04today. And we can see that it actually6:06held the low from Friday, which is6:08pretty significant. That actually gives6:10us a very clear level to watch for6:11tomorrow morning right around 776.6:15Now, if we see the spy break under this6:16clear double bottom, I think that we6:18could see more of a sell-off take place.6:20But, it was good to see the spy come6:22back and close up around its high of6:24pre-market around market close. So, as I6:27look at spy, if it breaks that6:29pre-market high right around 778806:32all the way up even to 77937,6:35which is the previous all-time high, um6:37that's going to be my main area to the6:39upside. I really want to see 779376:42break though. That's going to be a big6:44resistance on the way up towards 781 and6:47then even the all-time high that posted6:49last week at 78162.6:52Of course, if the spy does end up6:54breaking this key double bottom in the6:55short-term though, there could be some6:57big supports coming up in play like 775,7:00774, and 772507:03underneath there.7:05But, something that will really impact7:07the S&P 500's price action tomorrow and7:09especially spy is going to be the CPI7:12data that releases 1 hour before open.7:15If there's any data to wake up early,7:17tomorrow is going to be the day. The CPI7:19data will be highly watched and we can7:21actually see that the year-over-year7:23number is set to come in 0.2% higher7:26than the previous reading of 3.4%.7:29If that happens, it would show that7:30inflation is actively rising and of7:33course with higher energy prices, I7:34wouldn't be surprised if that happens.7:36But, the big kicker will be if it comes7:38in higher than 3.6%.7:41Also, keep your eyes on the core rates7:43as well, as those will be highly7:44watched. Thursday, we do have PPI data,7:47retail sales, and a Fed chair Warsh7:50speech scheduled up, too.7:52>> Looking at how the market performed on7:54past CPI days, it has been pretty mixed,7:58but positive on average. We can see that8:02since 2023,8:04the day where the CPI data is released,8:08on average, is positive and is green8:11roughly 56% of the time. But, we can8:13also see there have been a handful of8:15times where the market did have some8:18pretty big red days. There was a 3.4%8:21drop in April of 2025 and multiple8:24instances where the S&P 500 popped over8:281% going back to the end of 2023. So,8:32keep this in mind, it can be volatile.8:34We also do have some PPI data,8:36retail sales data, and another Fed chair8:39Warsh speech on Thursday. We'll talk8:42more about that tomorrow. Looking at the8:44earnings lineup, again, we are8:46officially entering into earning season.8:48Over the next month, some of the biggest8:50companies in the world will report their8:52earnings. For this week, we had the big8:55banks kind of start the show, but for8:58the rest of the week, there will still8:59be some pretty important reports. I9:01would say especially look out for that9:03TSMC9:05earnings release on Thursday before9:07market open.9:09>> Yeah, that's going to be one of the9:10biggest reports of the week in my eyes.9:12Of course, it's going to impact the AI9:14market, and if it signals that chip9:16demand is still strong, it could end up9:17bringing some positivity back into a9:20time where we're starting to see AI9:21strength weaken a little bit. ASML will9:24also report tomorrow in pre-market. But,9:27Mike, I think it's time to jump into the9:29fun stuff, which are some setups and9:31predictions for tomorrow. And with my9:34first play, I'm looking at CRM to the9:36upside, which is Salesforce. And if we9:39look at Salesforce in the short term, it9:41has had a pretty good recovery from 20269:44lows. Now, at the beginning of the year,9:46it was actually trading a little bit9:47higher than today's prices, around this9:49250 to 270 range. And recently, it's9:52actually came up to test the the that9:55270 range, and it's peaked out there.9:58And what I'm really looking for in the9:59short term is a good bounce higher and10:01continuation of this overall uptrend. We10:04can see CRM has been doing well since10:07the lows of the year, but it did pull10:08back over the past few weeks and attempt10:11to fill this gap. It ended up10:13double-bottoming here, right in the10:14middle of this gap. And a lot of times,10:16that's a very good bullish sign going10:19forward, especially on a stock that's10:21recovering up as much as CRM has been.10:24So, I will continue watching CRM to the10:26upside for the next few trading days. Of10:29course, I would prefer if it continues10:31moving tomorrow morning, and we see a10:33clear break above 245 tomorrow, but even10:35if it consolidates tomorrow, keep 245 on10:38the radar for the next few days as I10:40feel like when the breakout does happen10:42here, we could see another strong move10:44like what we've been seeing over the10:46over over the past few months with this10:48stock.10:49>> Yeah, it has been nice to see this like10:51multi-month recovery out of Salesforce10:54and a handful of other software10:55companies. You know, we are seeing a bit10:57more upward momentum in a shorter term10:59sense as well. So, yeah, let's11:01definitely keep it close on the radar.11:03Another stock that's one close on watch11:05is ticker symbol VG. This is Venture11:08Global. They build and operate11:10facilities that turn American natural11:13gas into liquefied natural gas for11:15export to international markets. This11:18stock had a pretty big move higher11:20today, as well as other natural gas11:24companies like EXE and many other ones.11:28EXE is the largest independent natural11:31gas producer in the United States based11:34on net daily production. I find it very11:36interesting how we are starting to see11:39other companies within the energy sector11:42starting to move higher like natural gas11:45related companies, but also even some11:47solar companies today. Um of course the11:50whole energy sector is still close on11:53watch due to the global energy supply11:56disruption that we are in right now and11:59that appears to only be getting worse.12:02So energy is still close on watch. We12:04have natural gas names like VG and EXC,12:07but there's also I guess you could say12:09just energy more broadly with ticker12:12symbol XLE and oil refining companies12:15like ticker symbol CRAK,12:17all of which are moving to the upside in12:19a great way and um it has been awesome12:22to see this upside move. They're still12:24on the upside radar.12:26>> Surprise, surprise. It was another good12:28day for the energy players like CRAK,12:31XLE, and others. Mike, they continue to12:33explode in the short term and I know a12:35lot of people out there are taking12:37advantage. If you guys saw this clear12:39breakout with XLE up above this double12:41top today and you traded it, let us know12:43in the comments down below and also let12:45us know any other energy players that12:47you've been looking at recently. But12:50with my next play, I'm actually looking12:51at APA which is APA Corp and this is12:54also a stock that's in the energy12:56sector. It's an energy producer that12:58explores for and extracts crude oil,13:00natural gas, and natural gas liquids13:03across the US Permian Basin, Egypt, and13:05the North Sea. Now, while not being13:07directly tied to the Iran situation or13:11the Strait of Hormuz or Bab al-Mandeb13:13Strait, of course it is tied to that13:15situation because higher crude oil13:17prices and shipping prices impact this13:20company in a big way. And whenever we13:22see APA moving right now, today it had a13:25clear break above its recent high of13:274745.13:29And I was a little bit worried today13:30that we would see stocks like APA or13:32even XLE or others that were13:35reaching these recent highs and that13:37they might have the chance to pull back,13:39but it shows that they had a lot of13:41strength today to be able to break right13:43through. And I'm going to continue13:44watching for another move higher13:46tomorrow. And I think it says a lot how13:48strong this move was all throughout the13:50day today, even into market close. This13:53stock held up beautifully and it's13:54straddling $48.10.13:57So, if it's able to break that tomorrow,13:59look for another move higher just like14:01what we saw today.14:02>> Awesome. Another stock that's still14:04close on watch is AMD, but it's to the14:07downside. It had a nice um14:10weak open this morning, but it did have14:13a decent-size recovery as the day went14:15on. Um of course, that news out of China14:19related to the progress on their new14:21chip structure uh chip structure has14:24definitely caused a bit of a scare with14:27AI-related stocks this week. I think we14:30are still seeing14:32profit-taking in a general short-term14:35sense. And I think especially with the14:37current valuation of some of these AI14:40stocks, the risk-reward is favorable in14:43a downside sense over the coming weeks14:47and months. Uh looking at AMD, it's14:50still on the downside radar. Again, more14:52for like a macro trade uh kind of taking14:56advantage of this potentially stretched14:59valuation. I do expect a lot of15:01volatility still in a shorter-term15:04sense, and it is on the downside radar.15:06I think if the stock started putting15:08more pressure on its lows around that15:11like 58515:13area, that would definitely be a good15:15sign. Um but yeah, this the close was15:18relatively strong today, which is15:20something to pay attention to if you're15:22looking at it in a bearish sense,15:25especially trying to trade the15:26short-term moves.15:28>> And something else to look for on a15:30setup like this is of course it's been15:32uptrending very strong and that uptrend15:34did break and as that uptrend broke we15:36did get that really good initial shock15:39move lower but a lot of times we will15:41see these stocks come up and retest15:43resistance before continuing lower. So15:45definitely keep your eyes on some of15:47these resistances coming up with AMD.15:49I'm with Mike where I think that there15:51could still be some great opportunities15:53to the downside in the short-term. But15:56let's go ahead and jump into today's15:57momentum plays and I know you mentioned16:00solar earlier Mike and with the first16:02play we're looking at FSLR to the16:04upside. That was a great move and a16:06strong close. If it breaks out above 18816:10keep watching it up tomorrow.16:12>> With the next one we have Las Vegas16:13Sands ticker symbol LVS to the upside.16:17>> Looking at LVS it had a great recovery16:20move today. It also has a strong16:21negative correlation to the market. If16:23it breaks out above $37.1016:26keep watching it up.16:28>> And now with the last one we have16:29Johnson & Johnson ticker symbol JNJ to16:32the downside.16:33>> This stock had a nasty sell-off as their16:36earnings did not go well this morning.16:38If it breaks under the low of day at 24516:41keep watching it down.16:42>> All right, these three stocks are on the16:44radar for potential continuations16:46tomorrow if and only if they break16:48through the levels listed. These stocks16:51are volatile so always protect yourself16:53use stop losses only ever enter trades16:56that you know why you're entering and16:57focus on making smart disciplined16:59trading decisions above all else. We17:02have a lot of great free info in the17:03Stock Tip Discord group so check that17:05out as well. The link for that will be17:08in the description down below. But let's17:10also jump right into today's $2.117:13million big money trade. Today we are17:16looking at ticker symbol S I L J. The17:19trader here traded the 20 strike call17:22options that expire on January 19th of17:252029. So this one is definitely more of17:28a longer term trade and S I L J is an17:32ETF that invest in small and mid-cap17:35junior silver mining companies. This ETF17:39will naturally follow the price of17:41silver which has done very well over the17:45past few years, but it has pulled back a17:47bit over the past few months at least.17:51These call options are reasonably deep17:54in the money and they have a lot of time17:56to them. So essentially what we can see17:58with this trade is the trader is18:00positioning to profit from S I L J18:04rising going forward and they are taking18:07again more of a longer term outlook and18:09I like how they're trading in the money18:11options. They don't necessarily need a18:13massive move in an order for this trade18:16to be profitable and they put roughly18:172.14 million dollars into it. I think18:20it's an interesting trade. As of now S I18:24L J is still in the process of forming18:27higher lows which is typically a bullish18:29sign. If we see rates continue to rise,18:33that can put some pressure on gold and18:36silver prices, but if we see rates calm18:40down a little bit, that can also have a18:42really positive impact on the price of18:45gold and silver. So very interesting18:47trade setup.18:50It has a lot of time to it.18:52>> Yeah, that's going to be one of the big18:53things with this setup is having a lot18:55of patience. But one of the big things18:57with S I L J is that it is approaching a19:00very large zone of support. This stock19:02has bounced multiple times around this19:042735 all the way down to around $2619:07range and there's also a big support at19:09recent lows around $23 to $24. And19:13something that will be significant is19:14watching this overall range between that19:17recent low and the support that it's19:18bouncing at now. Even if it does fall19:21between here, as long as we hold that 2319:23support range, I think that that would19:25be a strong sign for the long term. And19:28something else that would be strong at19:29least for the next few months to maybe19:31next six to six months to a year would19:34be as if we see silver also hold19:36support. You know, silver19:38posted the low right around the same19:39time SILJ has in the short term and19:42silver's also pretty close to that19:44recent low. So, watch out for gold and19:46silver in the short term. They are19:47approaching this large area of support19:49and if we do get a solid bounce off of19:51this, this SILJ play could play out19:54really well and play out well over19:56multiple months. So, watch this play19:58closely. It has a lot of time. I also20:01think that it's it's fairly it gives me20:03a lot more confidence that, you know,20:05that it's the $20 strike, of course.20:07It's pretty rare that we see big money20:09trades that are that far in the money.20:11>> Yeah, so let's keep it close on the20:13radar and whether you're looking at20:14silver, energy, or anything else, it20:18might be beneficial to focus on specific20:21areas within the market rather than just20:24focusing on spy if that's what you're20:26doing because we're in the market that20:28is becoming increasingly fragmented like20:31we talked about today where20:34basically like never before we are20:36seeing the market move in different ways20:41where the top tech stocks are having20:44such an outsized influence on the market20:46where it's kind of distorting what might20:49be happening underneath the surface. So,20:51of course, energy is pretty hot right20:52now. Also keep precious metals close on20:55watch and all the other20:57stocks and information listed in the20:59video. But, I figured I'd mention that21:01just given the unusual conditions in the21:03market right now. We want to give a21:05giant shout out to today's member of the21:08day, Blue Lotus the Catalyst, who made21:10over $1,400 trading VLO call options.21:15And he also made $1,000 on DKS call21:18options, taking advantage of the21:20continued push with oil refiners, and21:23then of course with DKS as well. So,21:25huge shout out to you. Keep on rolling,21:28and it's awesome to see posts like this21:30one. Thank you all so much for watching,21:32and let's crush it in the market21:34tomorrow.
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