Transcript of This Doesn't Happen Often...
FX Evolution - Trading Academy
0:00Eight days down in a row. Every time the0:03Nasdaq opens, it tends to sell by the0:05end of the session. But, what does this0:07mean Wall Street is doing? And how does0:09it impact you whether you're a trader or0:11an investor right now ahead of Nvidia0:14earnings? With Anthropic potentially0:16going to come out and talk about a $300:19addressable market, a lot of big numbers0:21are starting to flow around this earning0:23season. And to make matters even0:25crazier, we're seeing some big0:26transactions into Baba from insiders.0:30So, what exactly is going on? Well,0:31welcome to the wonderful world of0:33stocks, commodities, and cryptos. We've0:35got a lot to discuss together. I'll see0:37you very soon.0:41Well, welcome back. It's great to have0:43you here on one of the largest daily0:44shows when it comes to markets around0:46the world. My name's Thomas. I've been0:47in markets for over 17 years, and we do0:49things on the channel here a little bit0:51differently together, breaking down Wall0:53Street's behavioral finance concepts,0:55and of course, the price action, the0:57data, and the flows, including the0:59biggest macro news. So, I thought I'd1:01kick it off with you guys today, which1:02is a poll that we often do here on the1:04channel, asking you what you think about1:07these markets. And according to you1:08guys, we think that the bull market1:10might run less than six more months.1:14Interested to know your comments down1:16below on this, but do remember the stats1:18and the data surrounding bull markets is1:20that after a bear bust, that is -20%, we1:23generally tend to see usually around 31:26years of a good run, then around 5 to 61:29years if you get past about 3 and 1/21:31years, and even upwards of 12 years if1:33it's going on a super bull run. And the1:35question is, which one is this, or is it1:38going to be completely unique and an1:40outlier? Well, let's talk about some1:41unique stats of the last 24 hours. We1:44always do a breakdown before these1:46videos over on X, so follow us there.1:48Link's in the pinned comment down below.1:50But, one of the things that I like to1:51look at here is the Nasdaq, because we1:54actually have seen 8 days in a row where1:56it opened up and gone down. You might1:58think, "Wow, that's pretty negative."2:00But actually the next one month and2:02three month reads, although there's not2:03too many reads around this, have been2:05more positive. And I think that's2:06usually because you're seeing more of a2:09negative crunch in markets during that2:11time. This is very unique. And of course2:14it's all ahead of a massive IPO. Do you2:17guys know which one could be coming very2:19soon? And more on that soon because the2:22addressable market woof 30 trillion2:25dollars. What do you think about that,2:26guys? Copper is now up roughly 19% year2:30on date. Now, this is a good one because2:32of course we've talked about how Dr.2:33Copper leads into of course economic2:36growth. And it also tends to lead into2:38one of those important factors, which is2:40in general a stabilized market. If2:42copper starts to fall off a cliff, it2:44could show significant concerns in the2:47AI markets. And to remember that's being2:49supply constrained according to the2:51latest results. We've also got a couple2:53of other big notes, but I want to start2:55here with the Anthropic news. Because2:56guys, this is pretty wild. 30 trillion3:01dollars. According to the latest data3:02here coming out, Anthropic is reportedly3:04preparing to tell IPO investors its3:07addressable market exceeds 30 trillion.3:09To put that in perspective, that's about3:11the same size as the US economy. And I3:14think about 20-something percent of the3:16global economy. So basically they're3:18saying, "Yeah, we're going to take3:20potentially a huge huge chunk and3:23everyone's going to be using it." Now3:25you could say, "Yeah, that's true." Or3:26that's factual or whatever you might3:28think. But it kind of reminds me a3:29little bit of the Shark Tank. You know,3:31when they go out and they say, "Yeah,3:33the fashion industry is worth 2 trillion3:35dollars. If we could just capture 1% of3:37it." And then you know, and then all of3:39them are just like rolling their eyes,3:41you know, at the back saying, "Oh,3:42please don't give me this spiel again."3:43We've all heard that one before. Really,3:45I think the most important factor is3:47what's the growth curve? How much are3:49they selling? How much are the margins?3:51What is the cash flow, and what is the3:52return on capital? Of course,3:55ultimately, that's the question that3:56Wall Street is going to ask. Speaking of3:59capital, is 10 billion mean nothing4:01anymore? I feel like it kind of does. Uh4:03Baba just supposedly got involved with4:06some more AI, and it's kind of sent the4:08stock market down a little bit there.4:10But, uh then according to the latest4:12data coming out, I think this one's here4:14from Finviz at Mr. Derivatives as well4:15on X, uh basically shows around $154:18million of insider buys from the CEO,4:21from the chairman, um whole bunch of4:24people buying into Baba at least at the4:27top. Now, this is pretty important4:29because I think Jack Ma also bought some4:32uh reportedly recently. So, yeah, few4:35people in Baba making moves. Has the4:37stock price moved though? Not yet. And4:39then, it's always important to note this4:41data. Also consider that they have4:43totally different time horizons to most4:45people. And then, you've got to see4:46whether it starts to line up with the4:48price action the data and the flows.4:50That's why we do things on the channel4:51here so differently. And I want that for4:53you guys, too. I want you to think about4:55markets, uh speed up your learning,4:58think about the fact that the mistakes5:00that you made in the future in the past,5:02most people do those. And guess what?5:04Once you recognize those, once you5:05recognize how Wall Street takes5:07advantage of them, you are in a great5:09position. Let's talk about gold cuz gold5:11stocks here versus gold, they've5:13continued to improve in recent days. And5:16basically, what that's showing us is5:17that we've got this kind of potentially5:1810-plus year drop in gold stocks where5:22it's done nothing to gold. And that's5:24starting to change. Gold stocks are5:26pretty profitable at the moment. Now,5:27will they hold up in a price of high5:30diesel? Uh maybe not, but at the same5:32time, the market has been picking up on5:34that. It's an interesting kind of5:35observation. Speaking of observations,5:37Duality Research over on X has put5:39together some great information5:41recently. One of those has been, of5:43course, my favorite, fund flows, guys,5:45fund flows. And this one here5:48is pretty significant because it5:50basically shows that fun flows were5:52turning negative after that huge run in5:55January, then they started to turn5:57positive just recently. We already5:58started to see that, you know, also the6:00CTAs, the commodity trade advisors. And6:03the thrust has been pretty significant,6:05although nowhere near the euphoric runs6:07of January. So, good news for gold, good6:09news for silver, good news for precious6:11metals, more on that soon. Speaking of6:13some large transactions, large ones6:16close to those lows recently, and just6:1824-48 hours ago we got some big ones6:21coming in as well. No surprises, it's6:23probably someone saying, you know, that6:24was pretty good run, and they're taking6:26some profit. Why? Well, it's around that6:29resistance or supply level, which we'll6:31look at soon. Bitcoin also joined the6:33party, Blue Credit here over on X6:35showing that a weekly thrust change of6:3724% pretty significant. The market flows6:41though, guys, look at this. As we6:42suspected, huge moves. 1 2 3 4 5 6 and6:49I'm going to suspect 7 days of extremely6:52positive inflows, pushing Bitcoin6:54straight up to the next volume node, and6:57of course the all-important 80 to 82,0006:59resistance. And we're actually seeing7:01cross-correlation across in metals and7:03Bitcoin and and crypto for the first7:06time in a while. This earning season's7:08been pretty spectacular. We do of course7:10have Nvidia coming soon. These are the7:12latest forward PE ratios, and based on7:14the historical averages, you're probably7:16not going blind, guys, it's just really7:18small, but I thought it was a really7:20cool one here from Duality. And if we7:22are to believe that we could be on the7:241970s track, that is maybe a7:26stagflationary environment, or of course7:29just the general volatility that comes7:31in in September and October of midterm7:33election years, then this great chart7:36here overlaying from Blue Credit kind of7:37shows that it could be about to to a7:40little bit more volatile. And if you7:42know your VIX stats, that is the7:43volatility index, then you might know7:46that coming into the next couple of7:47months, this is where the VIX tends to7:50go a little bit bonkers. So, you want to7:51be having that one on your chart,7:53watching it, looking for alerts, and of7:55course looking for concerns coming out7:57because we've got the bonds market7:59awakening for the first time in ages.8:02It's been a while.8:03Last 24 hours, metals, gold, biotech,8:07clean energy, even solar picking up a8:09little bit after that large transaction8:11a few days ago. Things have been8:14changing a little bit, but also pretty8:16much staying the same. Notably, you see8:19semiconductors slight improvement last8:2124 hours coming into the all-important8:23NVIDIA earnings. This chart here from8:25Earnings Whispers always shows them in8:28beautiful imagery. So, you can see here8:30Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Okta, NVIDIA.8:33Then we've got Micron on Thursday. We8:35will have, of course, a full breakdown8:37on those. Very excited to see what8:39happens at the earnings call because8:41people are calling this, guys, the most8:43important earnings of 2026.8:48I thought the whole earnings season was8:50the most important, but look, every8:51earnings season's going to be the most8:53important, and there are concerns here8:55because, of course, people have been8:56speculating Wait a second. NVIDIA is8:58saying they're going to raise rates What9:00is it? 15% across the board or9:02something.9:03So, they're going to be charging more.9:04Does this mean that other people that9:06are trying to take some of the cake,9:07they're going to come in and get it?9:09Either way, 6% plus or minus is what the9:12options market is kind of expecting.9:14This one here is from Earnings Watcher,9:17and it basically shows you that you've9:18got a market that is going to9:20potentially move hundreds of billions of9:22dollars. So, stay tuned for that.9:24Speaking of things to sign up to and9:25make sure to stay on top of, if you're9:27interested in a weekly newsletter, which9:30I present, then it is one chart, one9:32story, one market lesson learned from9:34over 17-plus years in the industry. Make9:36sure to click the links in the9:38description down below, and of course,9:40check those out. Always good to learn9:42something new. It's totally free. What9:44have you got to lose, guys? Press it9:45down below. Do it right now. Come on.9:47Let's do copper. Let's start off here9:49with copper.9:51Mm, Dr. Copper. I kind of love it when a9:53good plan comes together. Uh, why?9:56Because it it's always nice to see flows9:58continue on. And we've talked about10:00copper for ages. We always follow it10:03here because it's10:04it's well-known, but it's also a very10:06important metal. It kind of shows us10:07growth is still in the air for now. So,10:10of course, if copper's doing well, it's10:12a smiley face. If copper's doing badly,10:14it's ooh, wait a second, what's10:15happening with the bonds? But, uh, back10:18over here.10:20So, not that long ago now, back in May,10:22we saw copper close to a new high. And10:25of course, this was significant because10:26copper had been holding for quite some10:28time, and also been struggling around10:30this resistance level. When that10:32happened, it kind of led on to thinking10:33that, "Okay, metals could be starting to10:36look a little bit better, and more10:38importantly, that growth metals were10:39there." And since then, we've seen a10:42nice movement, and copper's actually10:43squeezing here a little bit today above10:45those dojis, trying to get to a new10:47all-time high. Impressive stuff there10:49from that. Speaking of which, silver is10:51taking a breather. So, let's have a look10:53at the precious metals. Silver right at10:55the resistance, taking a breather where10:57you would suspect it should. And gold10:59also coming into the big volume nodes as11:01well, sitting around 4650 to 4700. And11:06what you might notice is that copper's11:08actually doing its own thing, but the11:09other precious metals, they're all kind11:12of close to, if not at resistances.11:15Platinum's not quite there yet, I11:17noticed. Palladium tends to be the11:19slowest and laggiest of them all. It's11:21just chilling, still below its kind of11:23resistances technically of 1400. But,11:26yeah, there's always Remember, there's a11:27flow-on effect here in markets. And it11:30kind of brings up, um,11:32actually the last 24 hours, which hasn't11:35done much yet, but Adobe and CRM and11:37these other software businesses no one11:39likes anymore. Um, those types of11:41businesses have been lagging, of course,11:43the Microsofts and the others. Remember,11:44there's usually a leader, then there's a11:46second, a third, a fourth, a fifth. Wall11:48Street moves this way, guys. They11:50rotate, rotate, rotate, rotate, rotate11:52as the story line in that sector, as the11:55actual facts start to back up what the11:58flows already doing. It's kind of11:59beautiful. Let's have a look now at12:01Nvidia. Here are the latest call12:03resistance levels. And you might note12:05here that if I take the current price12:08and then I mark it out about seven,12:10remember 6% give or take is the options12:12expected move. 7% goes slam into top12:16resistance and of course the, uh, the12:18old call resistance level. And if we12:21take to the bottom, we've got 6% slams12:23into 200 psychological level and a put12:25support. So, yeah, is, uh, the street12:28doing a good job of setting this up? Uh,12:30pretty much. It's setting up so that if12:32those moves do occur, you're either12:34slamming into resistance or slamming12:36into support. Current observations on12:38the market, you know, we've got this12:39possible double bottom. Of course,12:41Nvidia owners will not want the price12:44underneath 190. That could create a12:45waterfall effect. And if it gets above12:47230, well, it could be a huge, huge12:51moment for markets as, of course, that12:53could start, you know, a whole new rally12:55in things like the Cosby and and really12:59a lot of other sectors. Let's have a13:00look here at Cosby meanwhile. We've got13:02here the inverse head and shoulders,13:04left, right, head.13:06Could we see a break of the neckline? At13:08the moment, it's been up, down, up,13:09down, up, down, up, down, up, down.13:11Samsung unveiled, I think, their latest13:13dividend stuff. Didn't really do much to13:15the markets, but it's consolidating at13:17this point ahead of Nvidia and Micron.13:20And semiconductors is doing the same13:22thing. Remember, when all eyes are on13:24something, it actually becomes harder.13:25It becomes way harder. And you are semi13:28doing yourself a disservice sometimes13:30looking at these charts after everyone's13:32crushed them, because what happens is13:34they tend not to move as much as you13:37would think. Uh the reason well, they13:39move up and down a lot, but they don't13:40move in a direction, and that's because13:43Wall Street knows that retail's there,13:45and they tend to chop it up quite a lot.13:47That creates a lot of FOMO, a lot of13:49fear, a lot of margin, and a lot of13:51mistakes. Let's have a look at the JP2Y13:54yields. Still going up. Yes, yes, yes,13:58they are rising up. Again, putting13:59pressure on the Treasuries trade14:01potentially in the future. So, we're14:03still seeing that. 10-year though, not14:05doing anything. I've got an alert above14:07here just in case. Remember, if yields14:08escape even more in velocity, that's14:11going to put pressure on Bison. It's14:12going to put pressure on Treasuries.14:14Speaking of which, Treasuries closed14:16above that previous little high here.14:17So, you got lower high, lower low, and14:20now a higher high. Is this a good sign14:23for Treasuries? Well, it shows some14:24support, and this is off the back of of14:26course a lot of discussion, a lot of big14:29comments, a lot of big big words and big14:31numbers coming out, but Treasuries still14:34one to watch. We know where the pain14:35points are now, down here on those14:3720-plus year lows, uh but we haven't14:40seen of course too much yet going on14:43there. Still watching banks, things like14:45JP Morgan and others. You always want to14:46watch your banks just to see whether14:48they're freaking out. They're not at14:50this stage, but regional banks have14:52slowed a little bit, guys. And the US14:54dollar is trapped within the range. Very14:56neutral on the dollar, although the14:58bullish positioning does kind of make15:00you think if the markets go bad, it15:02could squeeze a lot of people that went15:04really bullish recently. Let's have a15:06look at US oil.15:07What do we got going on here? Well,15:08dropped off in the barrels. You can see15:10kind of a big fall off here in oil, and15:14it's not really too much of a concern. I15:16mean,15:17effectively, oil barrels are going down,15:20which is maybe you can see consider15:21good, but when you've got to look at15:23diesel as well. So, things like crack15:25have dropped over the last 24 hours.15:27This is always an evolving storyline. I15:29mean, things like the daily 20 moving15:30average here at 57, we'll have to see15:33how this is reacted to from the street.15:35Early days, but a little bit of a15:37reprieve there in the oil markets.15:40Energy therefore D went against kind of15:43spy. Finally, it would do this at15:45exactly the resistance of the cross15:47relations. So, yeah, no surprises it15:50really does it there. And as we15:51mentioned before, Q's eight days down in15:53a row nailed into the put levels of both15:56700 and 705. And for now, ahead of15:59Nvidia earnings, we're holding this16:01level. And of course, where's that big16:03call resistance? Yep, you guessed it,16:05730 on net expiration. So, the big ones16:08are sitting there. The big ones are16:09sitting here, and the market is trapped16:11in between this stage. Solana, crypto16:14time. Resistance16:17chilling like a pit. Like basically,16:19most of the crypto markets kind of just16:21at the resistance. And Bitcoin tried to16:24pressure that 82,000 resistance, and16:26you'll note created a little bit of a16:28shooting star candle. And And look, the16:30first inclination for most retail16:31traders, "Oh, I'm going to short it."16:33Okay. You know, that's an interesting16:35concept. Why would you want to short16:37against so much strength? But that's the16:39often thing that people want to do. I16:41always say you're better off being16:42patient, react, don't predict. That is,16:44let the market tell you it actually16:46wants to weaken, and one candle alone is16:49not usually enough. But what I'd like to16:51see was this kind of thing. And if that16:53happens, cool.16:54That's pretty big deal. All right, we'll16:56do more deep dives into crypto soon16:58because I think that the market is17:00starting to change and of course modify17:03itself, which is important. S&P holding17:05onto the anchored VWAP, sitting around a17:07really random call resistance level17:09here, guys, ahead of Nvidia earnings.17:11And really just that comes down to this,17:13I think. You're going to see, you know,17:14maybe a big catalyst here for whether17:17the markets want to keep rallying or17:18they're actually going to say, "Whoa,17:19whoa, whoa, earnings alert, earnings17:21alert." And things will fall. Uh so, I17:24think very, very close to finding out17:26that. 7,600, 7,500 as we know on the17:28puts. And yeah, there's no real17:30surprises here on where the options sit.17:33On the futures market, I had a look.17:34Basically, it's the same thing. 7,500 is17:37a pretty big node. 7,400 is a pretty big17:40node. And 7,600 isn't really anything in17:43particular except for those puts on the17:45zero DTE. So, you know, I think if the17:47markets fall, there's a maybe a chance17:50that 7,500 is tested. And if they rally17:53up, then of course 7,800 plus, that's17:55where you're going to go back into that17:57positive gamma. Remember, it's not just18:00Nvidia earnings this week. There's also18:01more to come including the old Fed18:04chair. Well, she's coming out guys with18:06his first ever big Jackson Hole talk on18:10Friday. Jackson Hole Symposium can have18:12some notable data around it. We'll talk18:15more about that over the next coming18:17days. But for now, it's Nvidia, Micron,18:20and anything to do with the treasury.18:21That's really what's important. And we18:23are starting to see bonds markets put18:25pressure on the market itself, credit18:28default swaps. If you enjoyed today's18:31video, please remember to subscribe,18:33smash that like button, and of course18:35comment down below with some of the18:37favorite things that you're seeing right18:38now. Thanks so much guys. You have a18:39wonderful day.18:41I'll see you very soon.
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