Transcript of NFP Just Changed Everything.
TraderNick
0:00I am still short gold but barely. Check0:03this out. Today's intraday movement on0:05NFP almost stopped me out of my0:08position. Uh but price did roll back0:10over here and it's been an interesting0:12morning to say the least to get such a0:14soft print on NFP. I was fully expecting0:17oh yep going to get trailed out and take0:19profits on this move. And yet price is0:21rolling over post NFP. Now, of course,0:23by the time you see this video, price0:25could have ripped through and I'll have0:27already taken profits on my position if0:30we do break out through these highs. But0:31I do think it's kind of interesting that0:33the market's reaction today is not more0:36violent to the upside for gold than it0:39was. I mean, we did initially see the0:40pop before rolling over. And again, this0:43data point today was much softer than0:46expected. Let's actually take a look at0:47the non-farm payroll numbers. How this0:49changes things in the gold market view0:52and how I am going to stay positioned0:54for now in gold, but what I'll do next0:56if it makes a move higher or lower. As0:59we get started, please remember this is1:00not financial advice. I'm simply sharing1:02my own thoughts and opinions here.1:03Trading is high risk. Please be careful.1:07So, this gold short has been a really1:09good trade for me so far, but it may be1:12time to exit it. And I'm going to let1:14markets decide if I do get out of it1:16because I have a stop loss that has been1:18trailed from my initial risk here to now1:21just above today's intraday high. Now, I1:24actually trailed this stop-loss uh1:26yesterday. And so, it narrowly avoided1:29getting hit uh while I'm still in the1:31trade, it's very possible that if this1:33thing continues to put in some sort of1:35higher low intraday and makes a breakout1:37through those highs that I will be out1:39of the position and take my profits off1:40the table. And this non-farm payroll1:42number definitely contradicts my bearish1:45view on gold. Let's talk a little bit as1:47to why that is. So today's non-farm was1:51just straight up a win for the dollar1:54bears. And what I mean by this is that1:56the 29,000 jobs that we saw were much1:59less by a magnitude of 60,000 jobs for2:02the non-farm payroll for the month of2:04September. So we had a weak jobs print.2:06And not only did the jobs count or the2:09non-farm payroll print week, the2:11unemployment rate in the United States2:13actually did tick higher by.1% to 4.2%.2:17So this is also weaker for the dollar.2:19And this also comes in line with earlier2:21this week's Jolt's job openings which2:23were also softer than expected. And so2:25the jobs market data has actually2:26shifted more bullish for the uh gold2:30market. Now bearish for dollar, right?2:32Softer jobs prints are bearish for2:34dollar. While this is also then turned2:36bullish for gold. So edgeinder what it's2:38done is it's automatically calculated2:40here the outcomes of each of these2:42events and then shown whether they are2:44bullish or bearish impacting on the2:46selected chart in this case gold. Worth2:48mentioning though we still have an2:49uptrend in the 2-year yield. The2:51producer price index was also higher2:53than expected. So that was hot for2:55inflation or bullish for dollar. And2:57economic growth has been pretty solid.2:59This week we did get GDP numbers which3:01were stronger than expected. We also3:02have services PMIs and retail sales3:04stronger than expected and I would argue3:06that the 4hour and daily chart trend are3:08still generally bearish. Also worth3:10mentioning crowd sentiment is incredibly3:12bullish giving us a contrarian bearish3:14signal. That said, our reading for gold3:16has gone from bearish to now more of a3:18neutral score at just minus3. This does3:21not cross our threshold of minus4 or3:23lower for a bearish reading. And so what3:26do I do in this circumstance? Well,3:28here's how my trading strategy works3:29with EdgeFinder. When something goes3:32from a bullish read to a neutral read or3:34a bearish read to a neutral read, I will3:37simply continue to manage the trade, but3:39I won't exit the trade outright.3:41However, if for example, the gold3:44reading here jumped to a bullish one or3:47sharply higher from here, then it would3:49probably constitute a situation where I3:51just close the trade and take profits3:52off the table. And here's a look at3:54today's non-farm payroll numbers. Check3:55this out. So, big miss on the NFP3:58report. This red dot represents our4:0129,000 uh or I'm sorry, the 89,0004:05forecasted jobs. In actuality, we saw4:07just 29,000. We also revised the4:10previous number lower. And you can see4:12our beat verse miss uh chart here4:14showing a big sharp move lower here.4:16Additionally, unemployment rate jumped4:18to 4.2%. But for now, I'm going to let4:20price action guide me here because next4:22week we have more key data. Like for4:24example, the consumer price index and4:26producer price index. New data on that4:28front will be very interesting to see4:30how it impacts price from here. And the4:32recent data here has been kind of mixed.4:35Like I said, you had, for example,4:36manufacturing PMIs, which were softer4:39than expected, and the non-farm and4:40unemployment rate, but simultaneously,4:42you had GDP growth, which was stronger4:44than expected. So, here's where I4:46trailed my stop loss. This was4:47yesterday. Of course, price has come up4:49and tested this area. Now, rolled over a4:51little bit. One hour [music] later.4:53>> Okay, guys. It's been a few maybe an4:55hour since I filmed the video and sent4:58it over to my editor and I wanted to4:59throw this clip in here because what the5:02heck? There is a massive heroic reversal5:05going on in gold. And this must be my5:08lucky day. I mean, look how close I was5:10to getting stopped out on this position5:13or trailed out for a profit. If I just5:15go down to the 4our chart, I mean, I5:16have to zoom in here. I was so close to5:19getting taken out of this trade before5:21one of the most violent intraday5:22reversals I have seen on gold in a very5:26long time. Uh I just posted an update to5:28members inside of the Discord that uh5:30you know I'm going to be looking here5:32for an opportunity to continue trimming5:34my stop uh locking in further gains on5:36this move. But what in the world I put5:38in here what a heroic reversal from the5:40bears today despite the data that the5:44bulls needed to see. the bears took over5:47and sold it off. Anyways, crazy stuff.5:50Uh like I said, if I share any updates,5:52it will be shared inside of the VIP5:53Discord. Come join us. Uh we're5:55currently offering some discounts and5:56it's a great time to come trade big next5:59week uh data. We have CPI and more6:01coming. So, uh come trade with us if6:03you're interested. VIP link is in the6:05description below. And we do offer the6:07ability for people to split up the6:09payment to join the VIP group into a6:11couple monthly payments. So, if that's6:12something that you're interested in6:13exploring, speak with my support team6:15using the QR code that you see right6:16there or in the description down below.6:22So, again, for gold from a technical6:23perspective, if we break through this6:2550% retracement zone, I take my profits6:27and I move on. But what if price6:30actually continues to roll over? It6:32would be a big gotcha to the dollar6:34bears today if the gold market actually6:36decides to roll decidedly over on soft6:40jobs prints. Now again, the question6:43would be is that market manipulation,6:46right? That's what people would kind of6:47run to the conclusion of. But people6:49love to point out they think the jobs6:50numbers are fake, but are they also fake6:53if they are reported much weaker than6:55expected? Those same people will say,6:57"No, no, that's that's real data." but6:59then it's manipulated if the jobs7:00numbers are good. So today's jobs data I7:03would say was decidedly weaker than7:05expected and that should be a dollar7:08bearish story except today you're seeing7:11kind of a mixed reaction from the7:12dollar. Now of course jobs data and uh7:15you know labor market stuff is not the7:17only thing impacting the dollar. You7:19also have what's going on in oil and if7:21you watch oil it's actually lower today7:23which is also a good thing for yields7:26coming lower uh which is also should be7:29bullish for gold. So why is gold not7:32sharply higher than where it is today?7:34Well, we can see that the Fed funds7:37futures or the Fed watch tool here7:39specifically is all over the place. It's7:41changing in terms of expectations for7:44rate hikes. And prior to the non-farm7:46payroll, we already saw the market kind7:48of shrugging the idea that the Fed's7:50going to hike rates as many times as pre7:52previously expected. That already sent7:55gold higher before the non-farm payroll7:57number. So even though the non-farm had7:59not come out yet, the market had already8:01started started to think, "Oh, we're not8:03actually going to hike rates as many8:04times." There was some doubbish8:05commentary from Fed members, which maybe8:08kind of pulled forward some of the gains8:10from non-farm payroll. That's one way I8:12would explain away the situation that8:14we're seeing today because it is an8:15interesting one. I would have expected8:16gold to be much higher and have had8:18already taken profits on my gold short.8:20Uh but gold is rolling over.8:23Expectations are now pretty decidedly8:25that we are going to stay unchanged in8:27the upcoming uh October meeting. Whereas8:31when we look out in at December, you're8:33looking at a situation where there is a8:35preference for the market to hike8:37interest rates. in the in the meeting8:39after that. There's also kind of an8:41unchanged expectation and then we're8:42expecting more hikes later on in 2027.8:47Today's video is sponsored by Ola Prime.8:49Whether you're a futures trader, a forex8:52trader, a gold trader, whatever you are,8:55Ola Prime has one of the widest8:57selections of trading account types for8:59their traders. They offer a lot of9:01opportunity to scale into larger9:03accounts over time and offer some of the9:05most competitive pricing that I've seen9:07in the prop firm space. And to make it9:09even more competitive, with our promo9:10code A1 trading, you can get 20% off any9:14of their account types. 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But what10:40gold seems to be telling you is that10:42there is still something that is10:45worrisome to the market perhaps on the10:47inflation front. Let's analyze the bond10:49market and see what we've got here. So,10:51look at the 2-year yield, which is often10:54cited as the one that most closely10:56reacts or monitors what the Fed is10:58likely to do in upcoming meetings. And11:00while you do see a little bit of a lower11:03move today, notice that a big chunk of11:05that move already happened in11:06yesterday's price. That's what I mean by11:08I think some of the commentary from Fed11:10officials and expectations for Fed rate11:12hikes had already sort of been squashed11:14ahead of today's non-farm number. And so11:17that's where I think you're not getting11:18as much of a move as perhaps many people11:20had expected. Meanwhile, the 10-year11:22yield is also a little bit lower, but11:25not that I mean, we're just back to11:27Monday's levels, right? All this action11:29this week has not me sent uh yields11:32meaningfully lower. We're just back to11:34where we started this week. And if you11:35actually look at the weekly candle, you11:37can see that very decidedly so. We're11:39just flat on the week. Here's a look at11:41TLT, which is higher on the day, but not11:44meaningfully. So, this is telling you11:46that even a soft non-farm payroll number11:49is not convincing enough of the market11:52that again the Fed in their eyes is not11:55going to cut rate or hike rates. To say11:57it in more plain English, the market11:59still thinks they're going to get hikes.12:00And maybe a way of thinking about this12:02for next week, because next week we're12:04going to get more inflation readings, is12:06that inflation matters more right now12:10than the state of the jobs market. And12:12that is perhaps why gold is sort of12:14resetting after the weak non-farm12:17payroll number. Again, expectations had12:19already sort of subsided about rate12:21hikes before the non-farm payroll number12:23and then today's non-farm was sort of a12:25sell the news event, I guess. But what's12:27really interesting is perhaps this is12:29the narrative that matters most,12:30watching where inflation is because long12:33duration uh bonds typically react most12:37to what inflation expectations are. Like12:39if you're looking at the 10-year, the12:4110-year is very responding to what12:44happens in inflation. And what we have12:48here is an expectation that inflation is12:50going to remain elevated for a suspended12:51period of time due to high national12:53debts and one key thorn in the side of12:57the Federal Reserve, which is an ongoing12:59uncertainty and conflict in the Middle13:02East. That is ultimately still the case.13:05And until that subsides, I still think13:07it's hard to really justify the 10-year13:10meaningfully moving lower because that13:12just is a structurally inflationary13:14supply line issue that is currently13:17ongoing. So anyways, back to the gold13:19trade. I'm still in the short position13:20going to continue to manage it. And13:22while I'm not necessarily interested in13:24adding any further to this position, I'm13:26just going to let the market decide what13:27I do next. If this thing rips, I'm out13:29of the trade, take my profits and run,13:31and then move on to the next one. And13:32this is actually the second time this13:34has happened this week with gold price13:35doing a round trip on key economic data.13:38Here is PCE and here is NFP. Kind of13:43crazy how this has been a bit of a rocky13:47week for gold day traders. If you're a13:49gold day trader on behalf of gold, I'm13:51sorry. That is that is troublesome,13:53right? Because you just have these big13:55moves that are completely reversing uh13:58back and forth. Now, if you're a13:59reversal trader, you probably love this.14:01But for a lot of the, you know, intraday14:03breakout types of traders, this has14:04probably been a tough couple weeks. So,14:06uh, totally understandable if you're14:08struggling with that. From the swing14:09trading side of things, like I said, I14:11think the big picture still trends14:12lower. We look pretty clean, uh, for14:15now. That said, some of the new data14:17kind of challenges my my bearish14:21conviction with gold, which rapidly14:23change with today's non-farm payroll14:25number. I'm not bullish on gold per se14:27in the short term, but I'm certainly not14:29as uh bearish as I as I was perhaps14:32earlier in the week. And if you watch me14:34for any amount of time, then you will14:36know that my conviction level on stuff14:38changes pretty quickly. I just adapt to14:40new information as quickly as possible.14:42And today's non-farm definitely takes a14:44little bit of the wind out of the sale14:46of my bearish conviction on gold. Now on14:48YouTube and social media, there's like a14:50lot of people who they build their14:53audience around one particular theme.14:55Like for example, I'm always bullish on14:57gold or I'm always bearish on stocks or15:00you know people build an audience around15:02that. And I hope that if you are15:04watching me every day, if you are15:06someone who regularly tunes in, well,15:07first of all, I very much appreciate you15:09watching my content. But I also want to15:11tell you that that will never be me. I15:14am a trader that does my best to15:17subscribe and follow the macro trends.15:19And that's going to mean sometimes I'm15:21going to like gold, other times I'm not15:22going to like gold. Other times I'm15:23going to really like stocks and other15:25times I will really not like stocks. But15:28keeping a close eye on this stuff uh has15:30made me shift more back and forth15:32recently on gold because data is back15:35and forth recently and at times that's15:38just going to happen in markets. And15:39again, as always, any trades that I take15:41or change or update, I share inside of15:44our Discord. So, join us down below if15:46that's something that you're interested15:47in uh seeing. And if you are a student15:50of the same thing, meaning a student of15:52following the macro, following the price15:54trends. And yesterday, I was feeling a15:55little bit more positive on stocks. But15:57today, the non-farm coming in softened16:00like this makes me a little bit nervous16:02for the growth side. Now, growth data16:04has been fairly strong recently. That16:06GDP growth, retail sales, services,16:08PMIs, but this lackluster jobs report,16:11big miss on jobs and job openings this16:14week, makes me sort of think, okay, that16:17could maybe be a sign of, you know, the16:19demand side of the economy is slowing a16:21little bit and maybe that works its way16:23through. So, when it comes to stocks,16:24I'm definitely back in the neutral camp.16:26I looked a little bit more positive16:28bullish on things yesterday. Uh but now16:30going to shift back into neutral stance16:32and we'll watch to see how price action16:34reacts here. You do have a big move16:35higher today taking place on the NAS.16:37Looks really strong and we'll see if it16:39does one of these guys. Uh perhaps I16:41could get bullish if for example next16:43week's inflation reports were really16:45good. Like if you had cooler CPI, PPI,16:48uh etc. that you know we did get the16:50really good PCE numbers. So, let's see16:52if that is confirmed by the upcoming CPI16:56and PPI numbers. Taking a look at some16:58of our ratios, you have Bitcoin versus17:00gold doing really well. This is17:01definitely more of a riskon signal and a17:03healthy one. Typically, you see Bitcoin17:05outperform gold when things are a little17:07bit more uh optimistic out there. Credit17:10spreads still seem reasonably healthy.17:12This is taking a look at HYG versus TLT.17:14This is uh corporate bonds versus17:17Treasury bonds. And we're looking at17:18seasonality here for the S&P 500, which17:21is entering into its best historical17:24period of year. Q4 tends to be strong17:27October, November, December for stocks.17:30Uh, and so that's definitely not17:31something I'm really interested in17:32betting too heavily against. Here's the17:34NASDAQ also. And gold also tends to get17:37a bit of an uptick here in October. So17:39perhaps maybe there's a little bit of a17:41bounce coming for gold. And if that17:42takes place, like I said, I will cut the17:44trade that I'm currently in, take17:46profits, and move on to the next idea.17:48Trading fundamentals can be a lot of17:50hard work, [music] but we actually made17:52a pretty cool free Telegram channel17:54where we are publishing constantly17:56[music]17:56updates on what is going on from a macro17:59fundamentals perspective. And no, it's18:01not AI. It's not written by a robot.18:03It's written by a real person on our18:04team. His name is Allen. He puts18:06together a report each day on what is18:08going on on things like gold, currency18:10pairs, commodities, [music] indices,18:12etc. on a global financial fundamental18:15analysis basis. [music]18:16It's a really cool newsletter where you18:18can basically stay on top of things by18:19reading for like a minute per day. If18:21that would be interesting to you to join18:23the free Telegram channel, there is a18:25link in the description down below on18:27this video that you can join and get18:29[music] into the action there. We also18:31offer special discount perks for our18:33products [music] as well as for funded18:35accounts and for brokerages etc. And we18:39also do some giveaways as well. So18:41definitely take a second to join the18:42Telegram channel in the description18:43[music] down below. I also want to take18:45a second to just genuinely thank you for18:47supporting my content here. Make sure to18:49subscribe and hit the thumbs up button18:50if you have not already. And I do hope18:52that more videos in [music] the future18:54will continue to help you on your18:55trading journey. Good luck. Thanks for18:57watching.
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