Transcript of Wall Street Is Doing Something Strange...
FX Evolution - Trading Academy
0:00Is Wall Street starting to panic because0:02credit default swaps are on the rise0:04once again, whether it's Oracle or a few0:08other selective stocks to do with AI,0:10something's moving in the bonds market.0:13And as you guys know, it's all about0:15bonds, bonds, bonds because what happens0:17in private equity and generally debt0:20starts to seep out eventually. But is0:22that this time right now? And heading0:25into the month of October, should we be0:27panicking about things such as private0:29equity starting to drop off a cliff?0:32Well, today we actually take a look at0:34the good, the bad, and the ugly when it0:35comes to markets, including stocks,0:38cryptos, and commodities. And there0:40really is two sides to the tape. We'll0:43see you soon.0:48Well, welcome back to the special0:49weekend edition of the Daily Show, where0:51we take a look at the macro, Wall Street0:53flows, and some of the sneaky0:54transactions that the biggest players0:56have done over the last week. My name's0:58Thomas. I've been in markets for over 171:00years, and it's great to have you here.1:02Let's begin though with what's going on1:04when it comes to behavioral sentiment.1:07As you guys know by now, price action,1:09data, and flows do what they're doing,1:11not what they're saying. And the latest1:13reports that we've been getting in,1:15according to at least the retail and1:17institutional investors, is that people1:19are absolutely freaking out in the1:21markets. Yet at the same time, markets1:23themselves are starting to get, if not1:25also reaching all-time highs, depending1:29on the particular sector. And this1:31really shows us the difference between1:33sentiment and overall price action. With1:3648.1% of respondents replying that1:39they're bearish over the next 6 months,1:41a lot less than normal in terms of1:43neutrality, and a few more bulls this1:46week. And that's down off 53.3%,1:48which was a shocking result the previous1:50week before. Remember those AAII1:52sentiment surveys really show us pretty1:55much if Wall Street and at least the1:57price has trapped potentially priced.1:59Another one that's pretty shocking when2:01you look at it is this chart here from2:02macro charts. Shout out to macro charts2:04over on X. Basically, it shows us that2:07flows into money market and cash like2:09ETFs have just risen to levels that we2:12usually see during a larger pullback.2:14And this is really in line with what2:16we've been kind of witnessing underneath2:18the hood when it comes to the stock2:20market. Less than 25% of stocks were2:24actually trading above their 20-moving2:26average last week. We also had less than2:2930% of stocks trading above their 50-day2:32moving average. And this is kind of2:33showing us that there weren't that many2:35strong stocks in the markets. But as you2:37guys know, it's all about what happens2:39with tech and high beta stocks. If they2:41start rising up, then often the market2:43can actually go in the opposite2:44direction. And it's just got to do with2:46waiting and also what usually starts off2:49a bull run when it comes to the US2:52markets. Does that mean we're in a bull2:54market or are we in some type of2:55distribution? Well, when you start to2:57look at sentiment on the surface, you're2:59getting a pretty clear picture. And that3:01picture is a picture of fear underneath3:03the hood. And it really starts to make3:06you start to question, well, okay, is3:08that fear going to be justified during3:10the midterm elections and the month of3:12October that we're coming into, often3:14the worst midterm month, or are we going3:17to buck the trend that we have been now3:19all of September? Remember, September is3:22the worst month of the year when you're3:23looking at the statistics,3:26the history, especially since the 1950s.3:28But we've just witnessed a month that's3:30held its own thanks to tech basically3:33holding up, not the rest of the market.3:35This chart here from Callum Thomas, I3:36think, really shows how shocking these3:38markets are right now. Because take a3:40look at this. If we look at the overall3:43returns of stocks versus bonds, we've3:45gone from one extreme back a little3:48while ago to now a new extreme, which is3:51that the stock market is doing very,3:53very well in comparison to bonds. And3:56that's why you often see a lot of people3:57right now not allocating to bonds or3:59saying bonds are trash. And why wouldn't4:01they? If you look at treasuries and4:03you've checked out a chart of the last4:045-6 years, yeah, it's horrific on the4:07charts. But could that be all about to4:08change even though we're faced with, of4:11course, extremely high interest rates?4:13This is that kind of point, that tipping4:15point that really brings it back to what4:18is going on in the bonds market4:20and is it becoming more selective4:22towards certain risks and certain kind4:25of like good positions? Well, I've4:27always put together this report for you4:29guys and we just did six things that4:31caught our attention this weekend and in4:33that there were some shocking results.4:34Firstly, Oracle is trying to get rid of4:38some of its problems into the future.4:40That is, if they don't make, let's say,4:43some of the cutoffs for their data4:44center buildouts, that they could extend4:46them. At the same time of this, we've4:48seen credit default swaps coming back.4:50And I think this will be a story this4:52week, so make sure to subscribe and4:54smash that like button, alerts and all4:55of that type of stuff because credit4:57default swaps, guys, they're starting to4:59rise up again in the tech industry, even5:02in the face of Muse, which is kind of5:06showing some real-world application of a5:09agent, of course, now the number one5:11downloaded app in the US. Um it's going5:13absolutely ballistic. But these credit5:15default swaps, they're going to levels5:17that we haven't seen since 2008. So5:19basically, what that is is it's saying5:22that the market is risking and res-5:24realizing that they need better returns5:27to actually lend to companies like5:29Oracle. Now, Oracle is a special case,5:31but it's starting to spread throughout a5:33lot of AI businesses and remember that5:35MIT study we spoke about earlier in the5:37year, 95%5:39of AI businesses are expected to fail5:42according to that report.5:44Now, does that mean that it's unusual?5:46Not really. This is what actually5:48happens with new technology. A lot fail5:50and a couple of winners go through. Just5:52like the internet, you've got your meta,5:54you've got your Amazon, your Googles and5:56countless other businesses left behind5:59in their trail. Now, another thing that6:00I thought was really interesting about6:02all of this is that we just saw the US6:04mortgage rates go up to 7.45%6:08this week and that's going to put6:09extreme shuddering and pressure on the6:12real estate market. Now, why is this6:14important? Well, of course high interest6:15rates means that it exposes companies6:18that maybe don't have the best financial6:20sheets, specifically in private equity6:23and we've seen here Apollo Capital just6:26putting through a new exit of course6:29limit and they're saying, "You know6:30what? We've only got 5%." This is the6:33third consecutive quarter now that6:35Apollo is capping redemptions and6:37they're saying, "Well, it's not speeding6:38up. It's just basically leftovers."6:40We've also seen this report here again6:42from Olivia Fischlow. I think it's one6:45was on Bloomberg. It basically shows6:47here Morgan Stanley are also capping6:49very similar rate. It's showing that6:51people are trying to exit. Now, are they6:53smart money? Are they dumb money? Are6:55they just scared money? Is there some6:57form of fear here that's unjustified?6:59Well, clearly it's sustained fear7:02because remember these funds, it's not7:04unusual to not be able to liquidate more7:06money. They're not as liquid as a normal7:08stock is, but they are trying to run.7:11I'd be interested to know your comments7:12down below. What do you think about all7:14of this? It's now being a sustained kind7:16of quarter-on-quarter-on-quarter7:18movement and it's starting to affect the7:20likes of these stocks when you can see7:22them on the stock market. So, some of7:24these private equity funds are dropping7:25off a cliff once again. Now, let's take7:28a look at October if you ignore midterm7:30election years and you just kind of go7:32through and say is October usually a7:34month of good market action or bad? So,7:37it can be up, down, all around. It's7:39really quite kangarooy. You can see here7:41it sometimes rises up during the7:43beginning and then comes back down near7:45the end into November. Of course, we do7:47have the election in November, which7:49means that there could be some vol just7:51around the corner, but that hasn't7:52happened yet. And we always check out7:54our VIX market for that and the VIX is7:57back underneath what's underneath like7:5915 right now and it's back in the 14s8:02again.8:03So, this chart here from Blue Carat kind8:05of showing that in terms of where the8:06weakness is, it's often kind of that8:08middle to back end of October. Though,8:11midterm election years can look a little8:13different and we'll check them out in8:14the next video. Let's have a look at the8:16unusual trades. What unusual trades are8:18we seeing? Well, I'll tell you there's8:19one that's a bit strange that happened8:21in crack. Yes, you guessed it. Diesel8:24priced kind of or at least diesel and8:26fuel did see some massive transactions8:29last week, which probably comes as no8:31surprise when you look at oil prices.8:33But, we did get here a two times long8:35VIX future coming through. According to8:37volume leaders, there was a bit of a8:39cluster kind of appearing on the charts8:41and as you can see when you zoom out a8:43little bit where the VIX is and where8:46previous targets have been for the VIX.8:48So, could this be saying that there's8:50some volatility just around the corner?8:52It's possible, but again, price action8:54will be key. At the moment, the markets8:55are making new higher highs and higher8:57lows. Now, speaking of that, Blue8:59Carat's also gone through and he said,9:01"Well, what happens when you have 1009:03New York Stock Exchange common stocks9:05hitting new 52-week lows while the S&P9:08is actually close to its highs if not9:11almost on its highs." And you might9:13think, "Well, that's probably a sign of9:16good breath." Well, actually it's9:17interesting one because9:19when I say good breath, it's terrible9:20breath, but that maybe it's the9:22beginning of like a high gamma style9:25high beta style kind of market that's9:27rallying through and actually making9:29higher highs on tech. Well, this9:31actually has happened before and they9:33are during often distribution patterns.9:36This is certainly a concern that you've9:38got to always keep in the back of your9:39mind. Of course, there's a bull case9:41scenario and that is that it's all going9:43to be all great and tech will lead us9:44out. And there's the bear case scenario,9:46which is heaps of people are running for9:48the hills. They're all selling out their9:50stocks and at the moment the only thing9:52they can see any growth in is basically9:54tech and a few other specific sectors.9:56We've talked about energy, etc. And9:58they're jumping out. So, in these10:00particular statistics, and we don't have10:01too many reads here, look at this. 310:04months later, only 25% of the time was10:07the market up. Now, that's a pretty10:08bearish statistic.10:10Interesting. Certainly worthwhile10:11keeping in the back of your mind. Let's10:13take a look now at the most shocking10:15probably dark pool because it was a10:17sweep, guys. And if you're not familiar10:19with dark pools, well, welcome to the10:20channel. We always talk about them. Why?10:23Well, we're interested to see where the10:24large transactions happen. Basically,10:26dark pools are two giant entities or an10:29entity with other massive entities doing10:32a transaction they couldn't usually get10:33through on the market. They do it kind10:35of secretly, then they report it at the10:37end of the day. Now, this one here is a10:39sweep. That means that they did it. It's10:41kind of a fast transaction. Think of10:43yourself pressing market and saying I10:44need it done now just before, you know,10:47a news announcement or just after when10:48you've seen whatever your perfect setup10:50is. Well, they're doing it very, very10:52quickly. And this was the largest10:54transaction ever recorded on something10:57that, yeah, okay, doesn't usually get10:58big transactions till recently, but11:00crack. Now, of course, this is happening11:02at the highs. So, could that mean that11:04actually diesel price, that fuel price11:07has run11:08its course and gotten in front of11:10itself? Well, maybe for now, and I think11:12we're going to have to look at oil and11:14particularly look at what's going on11:16with the Fed and interest rates because11:19these interest rate hikes that are going11:21on around the world, I mean, we're11:22expecting one hike this week potentially11:25in Australia.11:26What they're doing is they're putting11:28pressure on the unemployment market.11:30Now, of course, if we do see the11:31unemployment market start to shut up,11:33the Federal Reserve is usually always11:35behind. So, could this be one of those11:37really short hiking cycles where yes, we11:40do get two, three hikes overall. So,11:43we've already had one, we're getting the11:45second one, maybe a third one, but the11:47actual futures market for interest rates11:50starts to drop off. If that happens,11:52it's going to be a very different11:53scenario. Could be good for also a11:54couple of opportunities in the market.11:57So, remember, there's always a good11:59thing and a bad thing depending on where12:01you're looking in the markets. Now,12:02going to call the market, we just saw a12:04massive shift to possibly getting a rate12:07hike as well in October. So, keep an eye12:10out, look on that, but remember,12:11whatever the Fed's doing, they're often12:13late to it. So, if the market start12:15turning in yield, which they have no12:17sign of doing right now, by the way, but12:18if that does happen,12:21then it will change the investment12:23landscape a lot cuz it's probably going12:24to be saying there's a weakness here,12:27and have we pushed this whole debt12:29system, this whole kind of wild action12:31that we've got going on here, things12:33starting to crack, the cockroach is12:34coming out, kind of like Jamie Dimon12:36says. Well, let's take a look at sector12:38rotation. So, we like to do12:39month-to-date, this one here from Koyfin12:41kind of shows us that the market itself12:43has been going into tech. It'll come as12:45no surprise to you guys, the last kind12:48of 4-5 months, it's really been12:49dominated by healthcare, bio, then we12:52had, of course, gold and some metals,12:54including copper and stuff, and then we12:56had, of course, energy, and now we've12:59got tech again. Tech kind of came13:00through about a week or two ago where13:02you started to see Wall Street do this,13:04and that's the beautiful thing about13:05recognizing underneath the hood. Wall13:07Street were moving, and most people13:09didn't see it. Take a look here, 5.86%13:12on the week, and even on Friday,13:14semiconductors, tech were some of the13:16best sectors. So, it just goes to show13:19again that there is always abundance in13:22this market, and you just have to look a13:24little bit underneath the hood. Now, why13:25is the market actually picking up tech13:27again? Well, number one, it sold it off13:29and collapsed. You know, the markets13:31like South Korea, we saw of course mass13:33liquidations across the board. After13:35that, you often get a consolidation13:38period and then sometimes people pick up13:40stuff. Now South Korea's got its own13:42limits on it now, but take a look here13:43at this chart from Top Down Charts from13:45Callum Thomas and it basically shows13:47here that technology is just going wild13:51with capex spend. You might think, well,13:52it's probably slowing down. Well, things13:55like this Muse, have you guys used Muse?13:57Let us know in the comments down below13:58what you think of it. This is the number14:00one downloaded app. It has a trajectory14:02that's faster than ChatGPT take up. And14:05okay, it's only a few days so far and14:07we've seen this happen before. And yes,14:09it is Zuckerberg. But at the same time,14:12this Muse app is actually demanding more14:15compute. So, the out of control spend,14:18the wild action that's going on in14:19computers is continuing here. Now how14:22many stocks are outperforming the S&P14:24500? Well, it's not that many. Energy,14:27if you've been in it, congratulations to14:28you. You've been pretty happy up until14:30probably a few days ago. Technology,14:32actually not too bad during 2026. Of14:35course, it's all about when you've owned14:36it. Timing's everything. And you would14:38be surprised. Healthcare, guys. I've14:41been saying it since the start of the14:42year. I have said this. This was one of14:44my own kind of, you know, crystal ball14:46in the I obviously thought that energy14:48would do better. I thought that14:50healthcare would beat the S&P. That's14:52all. I didn't expect much for a minute.14:53I mean, it's a horrible sector14:54generally. But take a look at this This14:56is the shocking one. Look at this.14:58Can you see? Utilities. 0%15:02I Juality Research, good work here, man.15:050%15:07of the stocks15:09are outperforming the S&P. That is15:11absolutely shocking. So, there you go.15:14You would have thought utilities would15:15have been doing better and would be in15:16some type of energy bottleneck kind of15:19with AI, but doesn't Yeah, it's not15:21doing it. 0%. And I think that's15:23interesting in itself because it's15:24showing that the markets aren't that15:26defensive. They're not buying the15:27utilities, not buying the staples and15:29that's something we've discussed. This15:31one here from duality as well just kind15:32of shows that CapEx is starting to weigh15:35on free cash flow ultimately, but at the15:38same time15:39again markets are kind of liking what15:42they're seeing in Just Tech at the15:43moment. And this is another chart we'll15:46be watching and we've got a different15:47version of it coming up when we look at15:48the charts which is that staples are15:51just declining against the S&P. It15:53doesn't matter which way you look at it,15:54they're declining. And what that's15:55telling us is that there's a risk kind15:58of still on in the markets, but again16:00it's just in certain sectors. When that16:02changes, if we see some kind of real16:04freak out in the bonds market that isn't16:05just Oracle, then we could be kind of16:08witnessing something problematic. But16:09look, it is starting to get more16:10dangerous, guys. Private equity, some16:12issues there. Oracle, some issues there.16:15People having to pay up next year some16:17of these interest rates. Are they going16:18to be able to do it? 2027 is the year of16:22payback, yeah? And the market's going to16:24be like, "Well, wait a second, where's16:25my money?"16:26You know, it does eventually happen and16:28as you guys know, you saw it in16:29semiconductors. Just like this, just16:30like this, just like this, it reprices16:32itself. Speaking of which, I thought it16:34was a good time to bring up this chart16:35here from Glassnode which shows that16:37only nine of the top 50 altcoins beat16:40Bitcoin since it's all-time high and16:43really it's ZEC out in front and the16:46rest barely kind of doing much. And this16:48just goes to show again selection,16:50quality, all these types of things have16:52to be considered. Now, why did Bitcoin16:54stall in its rally? Well, it's probably16:56this chart here again from Glassnode16:58showing a little bit of profit taking17:00going on. It's the age-old thing that17:03every retail trader and investor does17:06which is as soon as you hear a new17:07all-time high, especially if you bought17:09kind of at the same price or you bought17:12the dip,17:13they tend to sell out. So, does this17:14mean it's over for Bitcoin? Not17:16necessarily, but it does explain that17:18some people have tak- taken off some17:19profit from the tables and all those17:22sorts of things. Actually, I love this17:23chart. Looks really cool. Uh so, we17:25definitely will look at that again. Now,17:26just a reminder, if you haven't already17:28subscribed to it and you like the17:29channel, you like what we're doing here,17:31remember one chart, one story, one17:32market lesson. I kind of break down my17:3417 plus years on both the institutional17:36retail side, one kind of idea that we're17:40thinking about the moment that's17:41thematic, but at the same point, you17:43know, what lessons can we learn? It's17:44totally free. Links in the description17:46pin comment. I'd love to see you there.17:48And, you know, I really love sharing17:49that and getting the feedback from it.17:50So, it's fantastic, guys. Thank you so17:52much for subbing. All right, let's now17:54check out the things that are showing us17:57the good stuff and the bad stuff17:58underneath the hood. Because, look, when18:00you're looking at private equity, when18:01you're looking at some of these uh18:03credit default swaps, you're going to be18:04a little bit fearful. And I've often18:06said, and we always talk about it, you18:07have to see it actually rock up in18:09price, guys. You know, we have a saying18:10on this channel, bonds, bonds, bonds,18:12IPOs, IPOs, IPOs, and of course18:15earnings, earnings, earnings. So,18:16earnings right now are rocketing.18:17They're still doing well. Bonds right18:19now, that's starting to get shaky, but18:21still, as I've pointed out many times18:23when we've talked about, we haven't18:25quite seen a super risk on bonds yet.18:27They're not freaking out in the junk,18:29and we'll take a look at that in a18:30moment. And then, of course, the next18:32one is what is going on in IPOs. Well,18:34we haven't seen the biggest IPOs come18:36yet. We've only had one of them. So,18:39that often keeps markets kind of, you18:41know, in check. Now, this chart here18:42shows the S&P versus the discretionary18:46market. And18:47although it's not 1/3, let's just call18:49it 1/3. 1/3 of the market is kind of, in18:52terms of the American economy, is18:54consumerism. So, if we lose consumerism,18:58are we not seeing a breakdown of the K18:59wave? So, this is why we have to19:01continue to look at consumer19:03discretionary. And it's been kind of19:05disconnected from the market. You might19:06think, "Oh, what's the big deal?" Well,19:08you might notice that for a long time,19:10it was connected. Look at this. This19:13just shows you this is an AI-driven,19:16tech-driven market. This is not the19:18economy. If it was the economy, then we19:21would be seeing this coming with it.19:22This is literally a disconnect from what19:25you're seeing on the ground. And if19:26you're left scratching your head saying,19:28"What the hell's going on? Why is this19:30market up so much? It's not possible,19:31guys." Well, it's because of charts like19:34this. This really is showing that19:36there's something sick in, you know,19:38most people's pay packets,19:40unfortunately. And at the same time, the19:42stock market doesn't care cuz it's just19:43spending money on, you know, the the19:45promise of AI, which no doubt is a new19:48technology, but again, we tend to19:49overspend at the beginning. I've I've19:51written a newsletter piece on this and19:52all that type of stuff.19:54I'm sure you're aware of it. Now, let's19:55have a look at high beta. You can see19:57here high beta is on the rally. So, is19:59that a bad sign for the market? Not20:01really. Um this is actually the type of20:03thing that you want to see. It's making20:05higher highs and um it's trying to get20:07that all-time high, which is kind of20:09key. You can also see here S&P above the20:1120 moving average. That hit 15. It's20:13actually lower than I thought. Um but it20:15got down to that level that I often see20:18a bit of a bid at. So far, the market's20:20rallied. It all changed when that20:21interest rate hike came through. Now, if20:23you're actually looking at stocks above20:24the 50-day, that's actually continuing20:26to decline, which is interesting and20:28it's showing that it's a very selective20:31market that's rallying up. The kind of20:33energy's coming off a bit. Uh we're20:35seeing more movement towards, of course,20:38specific tech stocks. New York Stock20:40Exchange advanced decline line is20:42terrible, of course, 20/50 cross, all20:44these types of things. It doesn't look20:46good on the surface and we have to20:48continue to monitor the situation, but20:49the VIX doesn't care. We're not above20:5120. We're not in, you know, some type of20:54bears kind of in control of the market20:56or anything like that. This is a very20:58low-risk market according to what's21:00going on there. Now, you might look at21:02these bonds and you might say, "Well,21:03look at high-yield junk. It's kind of21:05dropping off a cliff and that means that21:07the bonds market's freaking out. But,21:09it's not really. Like, I I've looked at21:10it from the risk perspective, we're not21:13seeing a huge risk off on bonds yet.21:16When that happens, then we'll be21:18considering it. Now, I do know, and a21:20few of you definitely brought this up,21:23which was the MOVE index. And you said,21:24"Tom, look at the MOVE index, it's21:25absolutely rocketing." Now, notoriously,21:28when you've seen bond spread break out21:30like this, you're seeing a bearish kind21:32of sign.21:33But, this time around, it's more that21:35yields are cracking up, and that we're21:37still not seeing the markets cracking21:39up, and that's really strange. Like,21:41look at this US 10-year. If we stay too21:43high for too long here, we stay at a21:45five We get up to a 5.4, there will be a21:47point where it'll just go boom, and21:49everyone will suddenly care. So, you21:51have to be on top of this, because of21:52course, the it's now a story that21:54everyone's talking about. Look at21:55Treasuries last week. Look at them fall.21:5779, we're well underneath the Besant22:00level. Like, take a look here at22:01Treasuries over time. We are absolutely22:05smashed underneath those 04 levels. So,22:07this is This is unprecedented stuff.22:09There's probably going to be some form22:11of massive announcement that comes22:12through there, if I'm guessing, and that22:14could be a catalyst that changes22:16everything that we're seeing. Remember,22:17when they panic, you've got to start22:19saying, "Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, what's22:20really going on?" And allocations,22:23particularly to bonds as this thing22:24falls off a cliff, are dropping every22:26day. So, it's it's really strange times.22:29So, have a look at the Korean market, no22:30break to the close side here above on22:33the Kospi, but of course, US tech has22:35been doing it. XLK had a pretty good22:38week, almost got an all-time high. Of22:41course, Magnificent Seven. Uh one of the22:43users suggested, "Tom, you always do22:44MAGS versus SPY, why not look at MAGS22:46versus RSP?" Fair enough. Again,22:49Magnificent Seven, it's showing the same22:51thing. We're seeing an improvement here22:53in tech22:54versus uh anything else. So, if we22:58really look at the MAGS, it's all-time23:00highs here. Big volumes, as you can see,23:02big volumes. So, it's not exactly what23:04you would say is a weak market. It's23:06very difficult for the US market to sell23:07off heavily when tech is coming along or23:10at least it's actually leading. Carvana23:12watch.23:13Just doing this because we're looking23:15for cockroaches. No real change there.23:17I'm also watching of course home23:20construction and builders. And at this23:22stage, we are sitting on the support.23:23Remember the largest transaction ever23:25recorded, single transaction went23:27through there. So, we're keeping our23:29eyes open just in case. Let's have a23:30look at copper. Still pretty good on the23:32doctor's side. So, the doctor copper23:34kind of showing the capex spend is still23:36there. I think Muse kind of in some way23:38saved the market and made it rally up23:42cuz they're like, "Oh, we need more23:43compute." So, unfortunately, if you're23:44trying to buy RAM and and maybe graphics23:47cards and stuff right now, guys, it23:48might be a little bit difficult. Gold,23:50still on support, holding up. Now, if23:52interest rates go up too much, guys,23:54unless we're in stagflation, gold is23:56going to struggle. You guys know I like23:58gold, but um yeah, I I it is something24:01that does happen. For now though, good24:03support, at least it's holding and it's24:05a critical level. Same thing with24:06silver, didn't go down to the lowers,24:08which is good. Hasn't exactly given us24:11confidence either way though on that24:12one. US oil time, rallied, hit the24:14resistance, came down the 50. We're24:16looking for structure now and again,24:19just a beautiful sign of24:20cross-correlation. We saw this early,24:22guys, and of course we saw it across the24:24board. If we take a look at crack, which24:26had that number one transaction on it,24:28important level. Look at this daily 20.24:31So, number one transaction, big volumes24:34up here. Everybody knows about it. Of24:36course, we talked about it down here.24:37Press in the price. You know, yes,24:40there's no doubt. No one doesn't know24:42this chart if you've been trading kind24:44of for a while. And yeah, interesting24:47that all these massive transactions come24:49through. I'm actually think it's a24:50fascinating one to watch and to to24:53recognize some things that could be24:54changing in the future. Let's do some24:56options levels now. What is happening24:58here?25:00So, we've got Qs kind of still trying to25:02trade positive gamma just below the25:04resistance and of course the puts25:06holding up. Now, interestingly, the net25:07expiration puts came up to 730 for the25:10Qs. So, that means that we were at 700,25:13which remember was that cool level25:14before, but now we're at 730. So, 73025:17one to watch this week and of course the25:19new all-time high 750 getting us25:22positive gamma. So, that's going to be25:24some key levels. S&P time, we've got25:26resistance up here and yeah, that was a25:30very very wild kind of couple of weeks.25:34We came down to the 20 moving average,25:36some things that we talked about, some25:38VWAPs, some I mean, there was actually25:39some pretty nice trading there on Friday25:41and Thursday last week. And the reason25:43why was it was all about just looking at25:45the smaller time frames and recognizing25:47those kind of little pullbacks that25:49happened. So, for anyone that says this25:50market's crazy, it doesn't make sense,25:52there's always an opportunity. If you25:54think it doesn't make sense and you're25:55not confident in your longer-term25:57approaches, then why wouldn't you just25:59do a bit more position swinging in and26:01in having your risk management in sort26:03in order and your day trading and those26:04types of things. And then if you if26:06you're someone that's like, you know,26:07I'm pretty confident, then you can look26:08at more like the longer-term multi-month26:11into multi-years. It's just really I26:13don't think there's any reason to say26:14you can't trade if you're a bear in the26:16markets and you have a bias. It's just26:18you got to control the risk. And26:19remember, if you feel fearful or FOMO,26:22generally, you've got to harness that26:24feeling. And I often find the more fear26:26you feel, especially if you then take26:28the position based on your system26:29approach, you'd be surprised how good it26:31works. Remember, human emotion is one of26:33the most important things to to tap to26:36actually do better in markets. At least26:37that's my experience. Let's have a look26:39here at the US 500. So, came down,26:41actually found a pretty decent rally,26:43still no higher high, but we know that's26:45where the positive gamma takes over and26:47the markets themselves have remained26:49relatively resilient. So, it's higher26:51highs, higher lows for now, leading into26:53October. All right, bit time, what's26:55going on in crypto world?26:57Still in kind of the more positive gamma26:59side. We saw a bit of profit taking.27:01We're not quite at some of the27:02resistance levels. You know, here's27:04Ethereum, still looks okay on the27:06charts. Let's have a look at Bitcoin, so27:07you guys can see it. There it is. And27:09we're not quite at links like 93,000 and27:12stuff. So, it's, you know, pretty27:13strong. And that was a good market27:16breakout. And I think really an27:18excellent case study for a great quality27:21pit with all of the things that I like27:24from our day taken from our day trading27:25or advanced courses or anything like27:27that. Like, if you ever want to find out27:28more of those things, fxevolution.com,27:30links in the description down below.27:32Now, guys, there's a couple of things to27:34on the agenda this week. We've got27:36daylight savings time shift for the27:39lands27:41of Middle-earth. Yes, New Zealand, guys.27:44So, remember to change the shifting27:45there. We'll have quite a few of these27:47around the world moving forward. So, if27:48you're trading the US, make sure you27:50know what you're doing. Cash rate in27:51Australia, it's expected that we may get27:53an interest rate hike here, which is27:55going to knock around our property27:57markets. Again, a lot of world property27:58markets, especially Western world ones,28:00struggling a little bit here. And then28:02we've got for the US this week core PCE28:05price index. So, make sure to check that28:07out. Couple of bank holidays as well28:09coming in through. But it is going to be28:11a market that is going to be driven, I28:13think, by price. New stories, of course,28:15will be used as an excuse, but price28:17will be ultimately there. We're28:18specifically watching in terms of28:20housekeeping here, the overall yields,28:23what's happening on the bonds market.28:25And of course, whether tech continues to28:27make higher highs and higher lows. If28:29that happens, it's very difficult for28:31the market to drop off. 40% plus of the28:33S&P is tech, so it's all about those28:35types of things. So, stay tuned and keep28:38watching, guys. There's abundance out28:40there. There's always a new opportunity.28:42And I think, you know, the beautiful28:44thing about markets is you never stop28:45learning. 0.1% per day, you're kicking28:4899.9% of the population's ass. Well28:51done, guys. Catch you for now.
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