Transcript of The Stock Market Crashed Each of the Last 16 Times This Happened…
StockedUp
0:00The S&P 500 is near record highs, yet0:02most of the stocks in it are in a bare0:04market. Breath has only been this bad0:07twice, and on both occasions, the S&P0:09500 crashed nearly 50%. There were 160:13times yield spiked this rapidly over the0:15last 50 years. And every one of those0:18was followed by some form of crash. The0:2010-year Treasury yield has surged to a0:22high of 5.22%.0:25At the same time, the dollar has lost0:27roughly 23% of its purchasing power0:29since 2020. Today, we cover what to0:32know, what you should be looking out0:34for, and where the action is right now.0:40The US dollar has lost roughly 23% of0:43its purchasing power since 2020.0:45Inflation has also been above the Fed's0:472% target for 60 straight months, and0:50the bond market knows this. The 10-year0:53Treasury is up to 5.22%0:56from 4.75%0:58from August 31st to today. This is1:01historic. And on Wednesday of last week,1:03the 10-year had its largest daily gain1:06since Trump's Liberation Day crash of1:082025.1:10The biggest concern is how quickly it's1:12getting there. 22V research has laid out1:1616 similar rapid spikes in yields over1:18the last five decades and every one of1:21them was followed by some form of crash1:23with some of the worst cases being the1:252007 to 2009 financial crisis and the1:281987 Black Monday crash and milder cases1:32like the regional bank crisis in 2023.1:35The 10-year yield is a key benchmark1:37across the entire economy. Warren1:39Buffett famously describes interest1:41rates as the gravity of asset prices.1:44Sudden increases like we're seeing now1:46can expose investors and companies,1:49especially if they rely on cheap and1:51stable financing. This Saturday, Peter1:54Schiff pointed out the extremely weak1:56market breath that we're experiencing1:58right now, saying that while the S&P 5002:00is just 0.7% below its record high, 4302:05of its stocks are 21.7%2:08below their highs, with most stocks in a2:11bare market. He claims breath has only2:13been this week twice before in 1973 and2:17during the 2000's dot bubble where the2:19S&P 500 eventually fell nearly 50%2:23following both of those periods. Breath2:25is weak. Friday, September 25th was the2:28ninth day in a row of more 52- week lows2:32than highs. And there was also this news2:34on Saturday where Trump rejected Iran's2:377-day peace proposal. Iran's proposed2:40peace plan would have reopened the2:41straight of Hormuz and resumed nuclear2:43talks in exchange for the US lifting its2:46blockade on Iranian ports. Iran's2:48foreign minister responded to Trump's2:50rejection by stating that the reopening2:52of the straight of Hormuz will only2:54happen if the US can agree to their2:56conditions. And with Iran's army2:58commander saying, quote, "If Iran cannot3:01trade, no one will be able to trade or3:03live." Trump is also now telling his3:05aids that he expects to begin bombing3:07Iran after the November midterms,3:10according to the WSJ. Today, Trump said3:13that he's expecting more talks with Iran3:15to occur this week, saying they want to3:17make a deal, but it is not the deal that3:19I want to make. Trump and Xi formally3:22agreed to a trade deal cutting tariffs3:24on $30 billion worth of nonsensitive3:26goods for both countries. China and the3:29US also agreed to launch a communication3:31channel for handling AI related3:33incidents with the new round of3:35discussions around AI scheduled for3:37November. Even with that new AI channel3:39they agreed on, Trump said the US isn't3:42slowing down AI development. He went3:44further by saying he'd agreed to rather3:46not integrate China on AI development,3:49adding that when you're leading, you3:51don't open it up to each other. AI3:53stocks are why the market is still near3:56all-time highs and the 10 largest AI3:59stocks now make up 41% of the US stock4:02market. Interestingly, the last five4:04bubbles peaked around this point and4:06both the dot bubble and the7s Nifty504:10bubble ended after bond yields surged by4:13at least two percentage points. The4:15railroad bubble 150 years ago appears to4:17be an exception as that lasted a bit4:20longer. And the average US stock is also4:23continuing to struggle pretty badly. The4:25ratio of the equal weighted S&P 500 to4:28the S&P 500 index is down to 1.11,4:32its third lowest level since April of4:342003. JP Morgan is estimating that AI4:37companies could issue $4.1 trillion in4:40debt through 2030 to fund new data4:43centers. With the 10-year Treasury yield4:45now near 5.2%, 2% which is about 14:48percentage point higher than it was last4:50year. These companies will likely have4:52to pay higher interest rates to attract4:54investors. Rising yields might be the4:56Achilles heel of AI stocks. And this4:58week is set to be a pretty big one.5:00There's a loaded economic schedule with5:03important jobs data set to release 305:05minutes after the market opens on5:06Tuesday. Important inflation data will5:08release 1 hour before open on Wednesday.5:11GDP data will release one hour before5:14open on Wednesday. And we have a jobs5:16report on Friday, 1 hour before open.5:18So, we are set for an exciting week.5:21Looking at the stock market right now,5:23SPY is 1.03%5:25off of its all-time highs. When we look5:28intraday, we can see that there are two5:30major resistance levels overhead. SPY is5:33at 772 with the first major resistance5:35around 775. And this has been a key area5:38of resistance basically ever since the5:41market reached its all-time high around5:43August 13th. and even slightly before5:46that point. Of course, the most5:48significant resistance level going5:49forward is that all-time high just under5:53780. The market has been pretty stagnant5:56over these past few weeks, especially as5:59the combination of rising yields and a6:02geopolitical mess make it kind of6:05difficult for the stock market to just6:07actively rip higher. At the same time,6:09support has been holding up very6:11strongly. We can see there are a handful6:13of levels to look out for heading into6:16this week, especially with the important6:18economic data set to release. 768 has6:21been a key point the market has bounced6:23off of, but I would even argue that 7626:26and 756 are potentially even more6:28important. Uh, if those levels break,6:31the next major level underneath that is6:34just under 750. So, the market has a lot6:38of levels [snorts] uh to look out for.6:40It's close to new all-time highs, but6:42these resistances have been strong. And6:45again, there are a handful of important6:46events this week. Like we covered a6:49handful of times already. The time of6:52the year we're in is pretty significant.6:55Historically speaking, September 30th6:57has been the best average buying point7:00going all the way back to 19287:03for midterm years. Uh we are only 3 days7:07away from that point. So keep this in7:09mind. Of course, 2026 truly is a unique7:12year, but it might be something worth7:14factoring into your overall process.7:16Looking at the earnings lineup for this7:18week, it is pretty clear. Micron will7:21report after close on Wednesday, though.7:23This will be a big earnings report. Nike7:25will also report on Thursday. That'll be7:28kind of interesting as their stock is7:29down 44% year-to date. But besides that,7:32let's jump right into the good stuff,7:33which are some setups and predictions.7:36Of course, Tom isn't with us today. He7:38will be back in the videos tomorrow. Um,7:41but a stock that's close on the radar is7:43CR AK. This is technically an ETF and it7:47has been one of the strongest performing7:49ETFs in the market this year. This ETF7:52tracks energy and refining companies.7:55Uh, mainly companies that generate at7:57least 50% of their revenues from crude7:59oil refining such as gasoline, diesel,8:02jet fuel, and prochemicals. Of course,8:04the energy supply disruption in the8:07straight of horses has been something8:08that's been going on for a couple months8:10now and some energy companies are8:13benefiting more than others. Refining8:16companies are the ones benefiting the8:18most right now. Uh as we can see there8:21is a shortage for refined products like8:24diesel especially and other and even8:26just gasoline in general. These stocks8:29are close on the radar. Um, of course8:31they are up a lot this year and there8:34are a lot of reasons that these8:36companies may continue to benefit going8:38forward, especially if the war in the8:42Middle East doesn't end sooner rather8:44than later. Looking at CRK right now, it8:48has been pulling back over like the past8:50week or so, which I think can make for8:52some good riskreward opportunities.8:55While I do like it in a broader sense, I8:57think it's extremely important to be8:59adaptable in a trade like this because9:02if there is a deal between the US and9:04Iran and the straight of four moves does9:06reopen and the two countries reach a9:09peace agreement, then the war will9:12probably end and these companies will9:13probably have less to gain and it9:15wouldn't be surprising if their stocks9:16fell. But if this war continues to be9:20something that um there's no progress9:22made on, I wouldn't be surprised if9:25these companies continue to crush it. So9:27CRA CRK is on my upside radar, but like9:31everything stay adaptable, especially to9:33the news component of this trade.9:36Another stock that's close on the radar9:38is Dell, and it is to the downside. Uh9:41this stock has been a huge beneficiary9:43of the AI boom. Uh they've had a great9:46run. I think they're now at the point9:48where the riskreward is potentially more9:50favorable to the downside. It is up9:53hundreds of percent over the past year9:56and it's now trading at a forward PE of9:58like 21 times. Looking at Dell right10:01now, there is major resistance just10:04below the $600 level. I think in a worst10:08case scenario where Dell keeps ripping10:11higher, this trade can end up with a10:14relatively small loss compared to what10:17can be gained if the stock did pull10:21back. With that being said, Dell is not10:24a stock that I necessarily expect to be10:26read tomorrow or even the day after.10:29This is more so of a broader trade where10:33while there's a lot of euphoria in AI10:35stocks, I think that in the event there10:38is some sort of slowdown or even just10:40d-risking event, whether it's specific10:41to AI stocks or even in a broader sense10:44due to rise in yields or anything else,10:46I think this can make for a good10:48riskreward trade in a downside sense10:52over the coming weeks and months. Again,10:54in the worst case scenario where Dell10:56keeps rising higher, keep the loss10:58relatively small. But if it does turn11:00over, I wouldn't be surprised if it got11:02below $400 a share. And right now, it's11:05still at 562. So, we shall see. Again,11:08it's going to be something that takes11:09some time. But let's also jump right11:11into today's momentum plays. And with11:13the first one, we have Rocket Lab,11:15ticker symbol RKLB, to the upside. This11:19one's on the radar for a potential11:20breakout tomorrow past 7550.11:23With the next one, we have Coinbase,11:25ticker symbol CO IN with a potential11:27breakout past 197. And then with the11:30last one, we have Crowd Strike, ticker11:33symbol CRWD, for a potential break down11:36past 25140.11:38These three stocks are on the radar for11:41potential continuations tomorrow if and11:44only if they break through the levels11:46listed. These stocks are volatile, so11:48always protect yourself and focus on11:50making smart, disciplined trading11:52decisions above all else. If you're new11:55to the channel, welcome and consider11:57destroying that subscribe button. For11:59every single trading day, we make brand12:01new videos just like this one,12:03showcasing past stats, upcoming events,12:06stocks to keep on the radar, important12:08things to know, and so much more. It12:10takes a long time to make these videos12:12for every single trading day. And again,12:14if you subscribe, you'll get them12:15recommended to you more often. So,12:17definitely consider doing that. But12:19let's also jump right into today's12:21$940,00012:23big money trade. Today, we are looking12:25at ticker symbol MOS, the Mosaic12:28Company, which is the world's largest12:30leading producer and marketer of12:33concentrated phosphate and pod ash crop12:35nutrients. They mine and process these12:38essential minerals into fertilizers and12:40animal feed ingredients. The trader here12:43traded the 27 strike call options that12:46expire on June 17th of 2027 on Friday.12:50This company has been wildly volatile uh12:54since inception. Uh at its low point12:57back in 2002, the stock got all the way13:00down to $6 a share and uh you could even13:02say the same thing in 2020. At its high13:05point, it got as high as $162 and had a13:08couple other really nice runs throughout13:09that time. The trader here is trading13:12somewhat far out of the money options at13:14the 27 strike price, which will make13:17this naturally a lower probability trade13:20considering the stock is only trading13:22for $23 per share right now. These13:25options do have a fair amount of time to13:28them though as they expire in June of13:302027. So, the trader is positioning13:33themselves to profit substantially if13:36the stock does make a large move by that13:39time frame. With a trade like this one,13:41it might be a good idea to wait for the13:44stock to strengthen uh before entering13:46in. Looking at ticker symbol MOS, it13:49doesn't really have too much momentum13:51right now, but as we look at it closer13:53on the charts, we have been seeing a13:56slight uptrend in the process of forming13:58over the past couple of months. I think14:00it would be a great sign for this stock14:03and especially this trade if the stock14:06can get closer to pressuring those14:08recent highs potentially closer to that14:1126 to $27 area. Again, this is a high14:15lever way to potentially capitalize off14:18of the stock's upside movement. I like14:21how there's a lot of time to it, but I14:23would like to see the stock price get14:25closer to the strike price. So,14:28interesting trade setup and I'll keep it14:29on the radar, especially as long as this14:32Middle East disruption continues cuz I14:34know that also has trickle effects into14:37the uh fertilizer industry as well. But14:40we also want to give a giant shout out14:42to today's member of the day, Bird14:44Dogger, in the Stocked Up Discord, who14:46had some great profits on Friday said,14:49"Thank you, Serge, and made just under14:50$1,500 with some Microsoft call14:53options." So, huge shout out to you,14:54Bird Dogger. Keep up the great work14:56going forward and it's awesome to see14:58posts like this one. We have an15:01important and big week ahead of us,15:02guys. The S&P 500 is very close to its15:05all-time high and again there's a15:07handful of important things developing15:10all at once right now. Thank you so much15:12for watching and let's crush it in the15:14market this week.
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