Transcript of I Sold Gold. (I'm Done)
TraderNick
0:00I am starting to get some bearish0:02signals when it comes to gold. And in0:04today's video, I'm going to talk a0:06little bit about what has changed here0:08in recent weeks to take me from more of0:10a bullish view on gold to now0:13potentially a bearish one and if I'm0:15going to do anything about it. I'll also0:17give you an update on my latest trades0:19of what I've been doing with gold, my0:20view on the US dollar, the bond yield0:23situation, and we'll also take a look at0:25some stocks and currencies. As we get0:27started, just a reminder, this is not0:28financial advice. Trading is high risk.0:30Please be careful. Let's get into it.0:34Okay, so yes, let's start with the big0:37question. Am I still long gold? The0:39answer is no. I have decided to well,0:42actually, let me back up. I am long in0:44terms of some of my other portfolios0:46where I just have passive exposure to0:47gold because I'll say this, long-term I0:50still think gold is a really good buy0:51the dip opportunity. So, for those of0:53you who love precious metals for the0:55long-term, I'm still one of you. But on0:57this channel, I focus both on active1:00trading and the longer-term picture.1:02Longer-term, I like gold here.1:04Shorter-term, I don't like gold here so1:07much anymore. And this is again1:09something that I think is really1:10important when it comes to trading is1:12acknowledging and keeping an open mind1:14to new information. And so, I'm going to1:16break down exactly what I'm seeing1:17there. First though, let's take a quick1:19look at the technical analysis that has1:21taken place. So, we had this big level1:23of support that I had been watching1:25closely. I actually went long gold right1:27here and initially caught a nice little1:28pop. Since then, gold has really faded1:32off and kind of gone sideways. And1:34though I do think it is impressive that1:36gold hasn't crashed lower given the rise1:39in government bond yields, I don't1:41necessarily think that that's a reason1:43that it can't start to catch up to the1:45rate hike narrative that is taking1:47place.1:48And also, the US-China relations, if1:50those things go well, which they seem to1:53be starting to do so, that actually is1:55more of a bearish catalyst for gold.1:57Remember, gold is still a bit of a safe1:59haven for geopolitical uncertainty2:02barring the Middle East situation2:04because that is more of an inflation2:05problem, but US-China relations and2:08uncertainty there about, you know, US2:10and and China and the AI trade and all2:12that, gold is a little bit more of a,2:14you know, an insurance offer for that2:17side of things. So, if things are going2:18well there, if there's improvements,2:20then that could actually be more of a2:21bearish catalyst for gold. Whereas, if2:23things were worsening or uncertain, that2:25could be more of a bullish one. That2:26said, from a technical perspective,2:28staying technicals first, we did reject2:30once more a level of resistance here2:33looking left. We are back down to the2:35low end of this range, and while I'm not2:36actively in a short position, I am2:38looking to potentially get short gold2:41if, for example, we start to lose this2:44major level of support around the 42502:47level. Now, if you are someone who is2:49bullish on gold and you're like, this2:50feels like a betrayal, Nick,2:52I am not loyal to the bull or bear case2:54when it comes to gold. I'm loyal to my2:56personal trading strategy, and so should2:58you. If me changing to bearish offends3:01you or upsets you or makes you upset, I3:03get so many comments whenever I have a3:05change of view on something. People are3:06like, how dare you change your mind?3:09Well, at the end of the day, trading is3:10about keeping an open mind and reacting3:12to a system is not something that it's3:16mechanical, right? So, my mechanically3:17based approach to trading is telling me3:20to potentially get more bearish on gold.3:23And if, for example, we break through3:25the floor here and actually move lower,3:27I would be looking to sell any sort of3:29rally in the precious metals. So, from a3:31technical perspective, we've not been3:33able to decisively break out here, and I3:35want to leave something else on the3:37table. If gold does start to repair from3:40a price action perspective, and let's3:42say next week we get weak jobs report3:44data. We have the nonfarm and ADP3:46numbers coming next week and3:47unemployment claims. If the jobs market3:49starts to weaken, I'm back on the bull3:51bull train. Maybe the fair way to put3:53this into an actionable terms basis is3:56I'm not in a gold long or short anymore,3:58but I'm open-minded to either scenario,4:01but I'm closer to potentially getting4:03into a short trade. Let's just say for4:05example that yields keep ripping higher,4:07the Fed is likely to keep hiking4:08interest rates, and the jobs report4:10comes in strong next week. I think gold4:12path of least resistance is to make a4:14move back lower. So, no, I'm not all in4:16on a short position today, but I'm4:18open-minded to if you lose structure, a4:20retest into this area starts to look4:22like a really good spot for a momentum4:24short trade. So, let's also talk a4:26little bit about structure-wise what has4:28changed to get me a little bit more on4:30the bear camp. Well, one of the more4:32obvious things is that yields are4:34ripping higher and the dollar is fairly4:36strong right now. In fact, the US4:38dollar's reading within Edge Finder is4:40leaning bullish here recently, which has4:42been a really phenomenal call as the4:45dollar has been breaking out higher.4:46Edge Finder first got bullish on the4:48dollar September 16th. That's basically4:50on this candle, and while we didn't4:52really see much of a pullback, that very4:53brief little pullback there shot the4:55dollar higher, and we have made a sharp4:58move higher in recent weeks, or I should5:00say in the recent week. So, the strong5:02technical view on the US dollar, plus5:04macroeconomic data that has recently5:05come out strong for the dollar, is5:08making it hard for me to justify the5:11long side of gold in the here and now.5:13So, we have a situation where the US5:14economy is showing promising signals,5:17the Federal Reserve is talking about5:18hiking interest rates, inflation is5:20still sticky, and we don't have a5:21resolution in the Middle East, it's hard5:24for me to fight that macro trend keeping5:26an open mind. Now, let me also just be5:28the first to say that if there is a5:30resolution in the Middle East, if things5:32drastically improve there, if yields5:33start to drop sharply, and let's say5:35next week's economic data is a little5:37softer and it weakens up the dollar a5:39little bit, I could get back on the bull5:41case for gold. But, again, right now,5:43I'm a trend follower of macro and price.5:47And right now, the dollar looks solid5:49and we have a couple readings that have5:51been really strong. For example, retail5:52sales stronger than expected, PMIs this5:55week. Although this is showing ISM5:57services and manufacturing PMIs, the5:59flash PMIs that came out this week,6:01which is a different set of PMIs, were6:03red hot, really strong for the dollar.6:06And here's what I'm referring to there.6:07So, we had flash manufacturing and flash6:10services PMIs both well above6:13expectations at 57 and 58.76:16respectively. I always have to lace this6:18in there because there's always someone6:20who gets upset when I say the US economy6:21is looking strong. Understand that I'm6:23not saying it's great out there for6:25everyone. I'm saying that as an output6:27of the economy, PMIs, which are a6:29forward-looking indicator, are showing6:32basically respondents are saying,6:34"People who are in charge of hiring and6:36spending and see the sales revenues of6:39all sorts of different companies within,6:41you know, the economy, they're generally6:43guiding towards some strength strength6:45is coming." And so, all of this makes it6:47a little difficult for me to justify6:49holding on to a long position on gold,6:52and instead I'm a little bit more poised6:54to be wanting to buy the dip on the6:55dollar and bet that this thing can6:57continue higher. Worth mentioning, later6:59today we do get COT data, which will7:01tell us what institutions have been7:03doing, and I would not be shocked at all7:04if institutions have been buying the7:06rally here. So, new information, which7:08the last data point came out September7:1019th, so it's a couple days old, we'll7:12get new information today, and if you7:13have Edge Finder, uh I implore you, come7:16back around 4:30 p.m. US Eastern and7:19let's see what this data shows you. I7:20bet you there's a good chance, maybe I'm7:22wrong, I don't I can't predict the COT7:24report perfectly, but with the uptick in7:26the dollar strength recently, I wouldn't7:28be surprised if institutions were in7:29there buying it. Could we maybe see the7:31dollar index continue its overall climb7:33back up to the top end of this range?7:35Very possible. And so, if I think that7:37the dollar could be strong, then most7:39cases that's going to be a little bit7:41more weak gold.7:42I also now want to talk about my7:44longer-term view on gold because it's7:46different. Now, from a short-term7:48momentum perspective within the macro7:51stuff that we just talked about, I think7:52the dollar looks strong and I think that7:54puts bearish pressure on gold. I think7:56yields are moving higher, the Fed's7:57going to hike rates. If that narrative7:59is the prevailing one right now, short8:01to mid-term, I think that that could8:03continue to keep gold either trading8:04sideways or maybe moving lower. Now8:07again, I'm open to the idea that if I if8:09I'm wrong on this and gold starts8:10trending higher, I'll look for an8:11opportunity to get back long if the data8:13starts to support it. But right now,8:15just reacting to what I'm seeing here,8:17it does look to me like gold may go8:19lower. Now, if you're someone who really8:21likes precious metals for the longer8:22term, you should actually be cheering8:24for this to happen because if you really8:26like precious metals,8:27lower prices are attractive. And I8:30mentioned this many times, in the longer8:32run, I actually think gold is a really8:35great buy. Now, I'm not telling anyone8:37else what to do, as always, not8:38financial advice. But for me personally,8:40I think gold, where it currently sits,8:42is already a decent bargain for the8:43longer term. But because this is a8:45trading channel and I'm not talking8:46about uh you know, necessarily all the8:48time, like longer term, there's two8:50different sides of me, right? There's8:51the one side, which is like long-term, I8:54would love if gold continues to move8:55lower cuz it would give me the8:56opportunity to buy it, stick it in a8:58portfolio, or if you're a precious9:00metals physical person, then you know,9:02that's that's your other option. Um9:04stick it in a portfolio, stick it in9:06whatever, a safe or whatever. And longer9:08term, I actually think it's a great9:10opportunity to be a precious metals9:12buyer as the thing continues to move9:14lower. Like I said, if you like precious9:16metals, a short-term downtrend should be9:19welcomed, not feared, because that gives9:21you more9:23physical metal or or you know, digital9:25metal uh for your dollar. So, in the9:28short term, I would not be surprised to9:30see gold head back down to 4,000. And if9:33it happens, I'll be buying some of that9:35for the longer term, not necessarily as9:37a short-term trade, but as a position or9:39even longer-term hold. From a moving9:41average perspective, gold has lost all9:43of its moving averages again. We're back9:45below the 20, 50, 100, and 200. And like9:47I said, what looked like a really good9:49momentum pickup story has sort of9:51fizzled out into a range-bound one,9:53challenged by the prospect that the Fed9:55is back on a hiking spree. Today's video9:57is sponsored by Ola Prime. 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Now,11:29back to the the Taking a look at oil11:31here, we can see that this thing has11:32also been supporting this kind of upward11:35trend line. I don't have a huge bias11:37when it comes to oil because if I flip11:40over to my reading here, and what we can11:43see here is that we have just a very11:44modest minus two overall score. So, or11:47actually, I'm sorry, a minus one score.11:48So, nothing major here in either11:50direction. That said, if there is11:52escalation in the Middle East or even11:54just continued uncertainty, oil prices,11:56even if they just stay right where they11:57are, this has been proven to be11:59inflationary and a again, a drift higher12:03in bond yields. While oil has gone back12:05and forth throughout the duration of the12:06war, look at yields. They have pretty12:08much only gone higher and priced in12:11longer run inflation expectations.12:13Meanwhile, stocks are near their12:15all-time highs. They have basically been12:17able to kind of shrug off the rise in12:20bond yields. Uh but that's another12:22reason why I'm a little bit cautious12:23when it comes to stocks. If I flip over12:25here, actually, let's go look at our top12:26setups page really quick. I can show you12:28guys this. So, I'm getting a cold12:30bearish reading here for the first time12:31in a while. S&P 500's also getting a12:33bearish reading. Dow Jones, the Russell,12:36uh and silver. So, we have, you know, a12:38lot of stuff that's getting a cautionary12:40tone, and it is right in line with this12:42strong US dollar signal, as well. By the12:45way, if you want to try the tool that12:46I'm using, it's called EdgeFinder. It's12:47a scanner that I've built with my team12:49here to better map out and understand12:52what's going on both in the macro12:53fundamental side, as well as technicals12:55and sentiment analysis. And this12:57variation of the top setups algorithm12:58shows you all the different things that13:00this thing is tracking all the time. So,13:02JOLTS job openings, ADP numbers,13:04unemployment claims, unemployment rate,13:06nonfarm payroll, interest rates, PCE,13:08PPI, CPI, consumer confidence, retail13:10sales, services manufacturing PMIs, GDP,13:13crowd sentiment, COT, seasonality, and13:15daily chart and 4-hour chart trends. So,13:18all of that data is being automatically13:20captured and summarized here for13:22traders. So, if you don't have a copy13:23and would like to try it out, here's13:25how. Scan the QR code that you see on13:26the screen now or click the first link13:28in the description down below to try out13:30our software and see if it's a good fit13:31for your trading style. If you're a13:33swing trader or a day trader looking to13:35implement macro fundamentals or13:37sentiment analysis into your trading13:39approach, this is the tool for you. So13:41with these indices getting more of a13:42bearish reading, let's take a look at13:44some of them. So here's a look at the13:46Dow Jones. And again, look at how13:47different this chart looks at like just13:49let's just really quick compare this13:52versus like the Nasdaq, right? The13:53Nasdaq looks really strong while the Dow13:56Jones looks quite weak. We've actually13:58kind of lost this upward momentum here14:00and we're threatening to break to the14:02downside even further here. So actually14:05there's kind of an interesting14:05divergence between the two charts here14:07where you have Dow looking weak, same14:09with the Russell 2000 looks quite weak14:12here.14:13And I actually think that for the time14:15being, I'm more interested in selling14:16the rally on some of these indices which14:19are especially the Russell and the Dow14:20which are inflation sensitive14:23to maybe look for further downside in14:25the short term with a defined risk,14:27meaning a short trade with stop ahead in14:30case I am wrong on the idea. But of the14:32list, I'm really interested in looking14:33at Dow Jones shorts, Russell shorts and14:36maybe some gold and silver shorts if the14:38technicals start to align. Let's also14:40take a look at silver here. Silver is of14:41course the sharper moving metal. We have14:44a huge level of support here around the14:4663 mark. If this level gives out and we14:49start breaking through, then I am14:50looking most likely at shorting silver14:52down to the 60 or even back down to the14:54lows around 56. And I can tell you right14:57now, if you're watching this video,14:58there's a good chance if you scroll down15:00to the comment section, you're going to15:01see people who are upset with me because15:03I've been bullish on gold and silver and15:06now I'm seeing new information that's15:07causing me to change my mind. But15:09instead of getting upset with me for15:11that, I I encourage you to take a second15:14and consider with whatever you are doing15:17in markets, ask yourself a simple15:18question. Do you have a defined strict15:22rule set on when you take trades, when15:24you close trades, and why you take every15:27position that you take. Because I do.15:29I've been doing this for a long time,15:30and at the end of the day, I can't fight15:32my system. My system is my trading. I15:35can't just, you know, trade off the top15:36of my head, and just because I want15:38precious metals to go higher or lower,15:40that's not what makes me long or short a15:43trade. I have a systematic approach. As15:45I've described here, if my signal from15:47my system is bullish or bearish,15:50it's hard for me to just completely15:51ignore that, and I do better when I15:54don't completely ignore that. So, for15:56now, dollar bullishness is my thesis,15:59subject to change if new information16:00comes into the picture. So, again, you16:02might disagree with my readings, and16:04that's totally fine. I would just ask16:05that if you do have a different view on16:07a particular market,16:09my view shouldn't bother you. Instead,16:12your system should tell you exactly when16:14you are buying or selling. And every16:15once in a while, though, I'll get16:16someone who says, "Nick, I I thought you16:19said gold was going higher, so I16:20bought." That should not be your system.16:22I am no one's system. I am my own16:24trader. You are your own trader. If you16:26have your own system and approach,16:28that's what should tell you when to buy16:29or when to sell, not anyone on YouTube.16:32I hope my videos are helpful to you, but16:33they are insights. They are analysis.16:35Hopefully, you're tapping into, you16:37know, the way I'm thinking about stuff,16:39and and hopefully, you, you know, take16:40some of my hard-learned lessons and and16:42learn from them without making those16:44same same mistakes yourself. By the way,16:46if I take any of these trades, I'll be16:47sharing them inside of our Discord16:49channel. And here was my update, for16:50example, when I went and closed my gold16:52trade. And, you know, for me, a big16:55thing in all of this trading stuff,16:56since I've started this YouTube channel,16:58has always been trying to stay16:59transparent about the ups and downs of17:01trading. I've been going through a bit17:02of a drawdown here recently, but I'm17:04very confident I can work my way out of17:06it. I've done it many times before, and17:08I will do so by sticking to my system17:10and strategy. If you want to follow17:12along with what I am doing in markets,17:14and see every trade I'm taking, and the17:15logic and breakdown behind each trade.17:18Join us in the VIP room. The link will17:20be in the description below. Trading17:21fundamentals can be a lot of hard work,17:24but [music] we actually made a pretty17:26cool free Telegram channel where we are17:28publishing constantly updates on what is17:31going on from a macro fundamentals17:33perspective. [music] I know it's not AI,17:35it's not written by a robot. It's17:36written by a real person on our team.17:38His name is Alan. He puts together a17:40report each day on what is going on and17:42things like gold, currency [music]17:43pairs, commodities indices, indices,17:45etc. on a global financial fundamental17:48analysis basis. It's a really cool17:50newsletter where you can basically stay17:52on top of things by reading for like a17:54minute per day. If that would be17:55interesting to you to join the free17:57Telegram channel, there is a link in the17:59description down below on this video18:01that you can join and get into the18:03action there. We also offer special18:05discount perks for our products [music]18:07as well as for funded accounts and for18:10brokerages, etc. And we also do some18:12giveaways as well. So, definitely18:14[music] take a second to join the18:16Telegram channel in the description down18:17below. I also want to take a second to18:19just genuinely thank you for supporting18:21my content here. Make sure to subscribe18:23and hit the thumbs up button if you have18:24not already. And I do hope that more18:26videos in the future will continue to18:28help you on your trading journey. Good18:29luck. Thanks for watching.
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