Transcript of Wall Streets Biggest Bear, IS BACK...
FX Evolution - Trading Academy
0:00Well, well, well, Michael Burry is at it0:02again. This time he's shorting and0:04disclosing Micron, Nubia's, and many0:07other stocks. But, will he be correct or0:09wrong as we head into potentially the0:12worst month of the year, October? With0:15Meta going gangbusters after AI and a0:17real product supposedly come together,0:20today we have a lot to unpack in the0:22video, including what just happened to0:24oil and how we saw cross correlation and0:27the rally that seems to be everywhere0:29with crypto, big tech stocks, and many0:32other things starting to show some real0:34pace. Could we be in positive gamma and0:37what could that mean for you whether0:38you're a trader or an investor? Join us0:41as we go through stocks, commodities,0:42and cryptos with everything that you0:44need to know over the next coming0:45sessions. See you soon, guys. This will0:48be a fantastic one.0:52Well, welcome back to one of the largest0:54daily shows on the planet when it comes0:55to everything that you love about0:56markets. Whether it's macro, Wall Street0:59flows, or a few sneaky positions that1:01were placed by Wall Street over the last1:02couple of days, there's a lot to unpack,1:05including what is going on with these1:06big banks as JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and1:09others drop over 3% in just one session.1:12It's something we've been following now1:14for the last couple of weeks and it1:16isn't new, but like everything with Wall1:18Street, you've got to be paying1:19attention to the flows. Hi, my name's1:21Thomas. I've been in markets for over 171:23years and on the channel we break things1:25down differently. We look at, of course,1:27the institutional data flow, but more1:29importantly, we look at the behavioral1:30finance of how smart money takes1:32advantage of us, the retail traders and1:35investors. Let's begin with the big1:37story lines and yes, you guessed it,1:38Michael Burry is back in the news, this1:41time claiming that he is now at full1:43size across several positions, adding1:46shorts in Micron, Nubia's, semiconductor1:49ETFs, and even Palantir once again. Will1:52he be correct or wrong? Let us know in1:54the comments down below, but this is on1:56top of what we're already starting to1:58see, which is a clear kind of I guess2:00you would say line in the sand between2:02private equity2:04and people saying that there are cracks2:06already starting to show in the bonds2:07market. If you've been a long-time2:09viewer, you'll know that there's three2:10things that we like to look at. Bonds,2:12bonds, bonds, IPOs, IPOs, IPOs, and of2:15course earnings, earnings, earnings. And2:16for now, as you'll see in the data, the2:18information on the earnings and the2:19bonds seems to be okay, but could this2:21be the start of something bigger?2:23According to latest Bloomberg article2:25here from Olivia Fisher, it basically2:27says that Morgan Stanley caps private2:30credit exit as 11% want out. Now, this2:33is a rollover of a story that we've2:35already talked about, where people2:37wanted more than the 5% cap. They2:39weren't able to reduce their position,2:41then they rolled it into the next2:43liquidation period. And I think it's a2:45reminder as well of curbed redemptions2:48continuing in the private equity space,2:50even though the market hasn't freaked2:52out any more about it. So, this brings2:54us into of course, what is the smart2:56money doing? Well, here is a chart from2:58i3 Invest, and of course smart money3:00you've got to be a little bit careful3:01of, as it does come back to you know,3:04what's the read for it. But this one's3:05taken from I guess the COT report, and3:07it shows that people are pretty, let's3:10say bearish or maybe too salty on when3:13it comes to the Russell. The Russell has3:15been not performing very well recently,3:17and the market has been in decline. That3:20being said, when you hit levels like3:21this of a little bit of an oversell,3:23then often it can show a bullish zone if3:26you're considering the inverted commas3:28smart money. So, it's a chart that we'll3:30look at later on today's video to3:33Really, it's been a little while since3:34we've had to look at the Russell because3:35it's been an underperformer in recent3:37weeks. And you would think, well, how3:38could the Russell go up? You know, high3:40interest rates and potentially higher in3:43the future. A lot of these companies are3:45zombies or regional banks or biotech.3:48Well, biotech has been the star of the3:50show. The rest, yeah, not so much. Let's3:52now take a look here at investor3:54allocations. This one comes from Callum3:55Thomas over at Top Down Charts, and it3:58really just kind of re-edifies things of4:00the past. Now, I've been trading for4:02over 17 years and and been in markets4:05for a while, and I can't think of a time4:07where people hated bonds more than they4:08hate them now.4:10And what I mean by this is you're4:11actually getting paid high interest4:12rates, but at the same time people are4:15not allocating to them. And rightfully4:17so, bonds have smashed people's4:18portfolios around, particularly4:20treasuries, over the last coming a4:22couple of years. And if you'd gone back4:24to 2019 and said to somebody, "Oh, the4:27treasuries market is going to lose like4:2850% face value, yet the market won't4:31have crashed." They'd say you're a crazy4:33person. But that's where we find4:35ourselves. And interestingly, the4:37allocation towards bonds is starting to4:40get to these points where we've4:41previously seen, yep, you guessed it,4:44crisis periods. And I think that's the4:46problem here. Are these an indication of4:50a crisis period coming even though4:52everybody hates bonds? And maybe that's4:54correct. Maybe it's right to not like4:56bonds right now, but certainly it's4:58interesting to see the allocations so5:00low. Remember, when everyone's doing5:02something and it becomes like the5:03overwhelming story, just like that Wall5:06Street can flip the switch. So, it's5:08going to be an interesting one to watch.5:09And if you like this type of stuff,5:11remember to subscribe to the channel,5:12smash that like button as well, as we5:14will be tracking this particularly over5:17the next coming years. So, we do do a5:19quick report before putting these videos5:21out over on X, and I just wanted to kind5:23of go through here a couple of other5:25things. SoftBank, according to latest5:27reports here,5:28they're having a little bit of time5:29tough time doing some AI financing, and5:32they've actually slowed their plans for5:33an IPO at around a $50 billion valuation5:37as investors question the economics of5:39building out these enormous data5:40centers. At the same time, we had Meta,5:43of course, coming out with their new5:45reports on their software. It actually5:47became the number one most downloaded AI5:49app uh it's topping the US App Store.5:52Have you guys tried it? Let us know what5:53you think in the comments down below.5:55But, it did turn out that according to a5:57report here from 404 Media that uh some6:00of these so-called phone calls that were6:02being made were actually human agents.6:05So, what have we done? We've reinvented6:07people for at least some of this. Look,6:09that's of course the skeptical view, but6:11at the same time it's it's pretty6:12amazing where we're at in 2026 with some6:14of this tech. It really has come a long6:17way. But, at the same time6:19they still ironed out issues. And6:21remember with any tech revolution, with6:23any new amazing thing that comes in,6:26there's always a growth pain that's6:27usually a bottleneck and that's where6:29investors make the wrong call. And6:32actually I wrote about this in our most6:33recent newsletter. Well, I think it's6:35one back now where I talked about it was6:37the right investment, the right idea,6:39you weren't even bullish enough, but it6:41still didn't pay if you got the wrong6:43timing. Such an important concept. So,6:45speaking of timing, let's take a look6:47here at the crypto market. And this one6:50here from Glassnode over at Glassnode on6:53X, give them a follow guys, basically6:55shows some very interesting data. Now,6:56if you have a look at it6:58uh about 75% of Bitcoin positions are7:01currently in profit. So, that's actually7:04pretty good, but it's still a far cry of7:06100% of positions, which sometimes we7:08actually do hit in these big bull runs.7:10Here's where the problem is though. Take7:12a look at this. The median of the 5007:15coins. the altcoins market. Less than7:1825%7:20uh actually in profit. And this would7:22make sense if you've ever looked at some7:24of those charts or you're involved in7:25them guys, it just goes to show that uh7:28sometimes as a market matures7:31the best kind of kind of still lead and7:33become the blue chips and the rest not7:35so much. But, look the trend is up a7:37little bit. Will it go back to people7:39being generally in profit on these? Hmm,7:42who knows? It's going to be a very, very7:44tough one. Another thing that's happened7:45recently is we've seen a bit of flow7:47momentum. Now, the most notable one is7:49of course the weekly 50 moving average,7:51what we call the Scotty Pippen level on7:53the channel because Scotty Pippen, of7:55course, put the very put the 50 weekly7:57moving average and it didn't hold.7:59>> [laughter]7:59>> I still remember that. If you're a bit8:01of an OG or you've been watching for a8:03while, you'd know the Scotty Pippen8:04level. But, at this point, MVRV momentum8:08is actually turning positive. And it did8:10this in 2019, it did it also in 2023.8:13And I thought this was an interesting8:14one from Glassnode because it goes to8:17show that we do have a market that is8:21starting to show some of the signs of8:24previous cycles. And I guess this is8:26encouraging and little exciting for the8:29Bitcoin bulls or the crypto bulls8:31because there's a bit of a turn here. I8:33would say though, the biggest problem8:34I'm noticing online8:36is since we've now found the pit and8:38broken up and people are getting more8:40convinced of this and that, that people8:41are coming out with crazy targets again.8:44And you know what I think about crazy8:45targets. I'm not a huge fan if everybody8:47starts to say it's going to be a million8:49dollars a coin and all of these other8:50things straight away. So, we've had that8:52in previous cycles and we've topped out8:55soon afterwards. I think at the moment8:56though, the activity is looking better8:58and we'll check it out in the charts8:59soon. Now, how is it that this market is9:02still up? A lot of people are scratching9:03their heads thinking we just got a rate9:05hike. How is it that markets are9:08rallying? It's not possible. This is9:09madness. This is craziness. Well,9:11firstly, let's understand underneath the9:13hood. This great chart here put out by9:15Juality Research over and next basically9:17shows that technology stocks are growing9:19at a fast pace. And then of course,9:21earnings, earnings, earnings has9:23maintained for now. So, remember each9:26earnings is going to be such an9:28important point here for markets.9:30Another thing that's happening is that9:31we're seeing staples continuing to9:33decline when compared to the S&P. And9:36why is that important? Well, it9:37basically shows the defensive market is9:39not present that much in terms of9:42sustained defensive action from the9:44street. If staples start to outperform9:46the market, then we can be scared. Then9:48we can say, "Well, money seems to be the9:50smart money, maybe,9:52is actually flowing into the maybe9:55defensive sectors. And therefore, there9:57could be a bit of a sell coming9:59relatively soon." Another one of those10:01things is this horrible sentiment10:03report. If you were bearish last week,10:05as soon as you saw this, you would have10:06been like, "Woah." Sad face. Because you10:09would have been pretty scared like that,10:11guys. Because, generally speaking, when10:14you have 53.3% of respondents saying10:16they're bearish for the next 6 months,10:18markets try to rally. And that's what's10:21happened. And even though we're leading10:22into October, which is seasonality, the10:25worst month of the year in midterms,10:27yeah, it's not selling just yet, is it?10:30>> [cough]10:32>> You can see this chart here from Jurrien10:34Timmer Research. When you go through10:35history, when you have this type of10:36spread with so many bears in it, not10:38enough bulls, that's actually usually10:40when you've got like a 7 to 10% or even10:43greater pullback. So, it just goes to10:45show, time and time again, when10:47everyone's convinced of something,10:48sometimes the markets will go do a face10:50ripper on the other side. Now, why is it10:52happening? Well, it's CapEx spend. If we10:54go to AI, it's CapEx spend, it's CapEx10:57spend, it's CapEx spend. Everybody's10:58hyped and excited about it. And although11:01someone will eventually have to pay, a11:02lot of those questions really aren't11:04needing to be answered until 2027.11:08And Top Down Charts does a great chart11:09there uh figuring it out. Now, another11:12thing that's interesting that's11:13happening underneath the hood is11:14something we've talked about for a11:15while, which is gold and silver miners,11:17particularly gold miners,11:19versus even gold. And Isauria Capital11:21put this together and said like, "What's11:23actually happening at the moment is a11:25lot of these gold miners are net buying11:27back their own stock." It's been a while11:29since they've done that. And what that11:31tends to tell traders and investors is11:33that they're feeling pretty good about11:36their I guess price right now, and they11:38think it's kind of cheap. At the same11:40time as that, you know, really changes11:42the supply dynamic of slight demand11:45dynamic of stocks out there available11:47for those particular stocks.11:48You can also say, well, they're also not11:51really expanding, are they? So, it's a11:53it's kind of catch-22, but at this11:55stage, they're pretty bullish,11:57obviously, on their own stock position.11:58Will that eventuate into further price?12:01We'll find out in the coming months. So,12:03you might think, well, how did oil start12:05to turn even though the news on the12:07weekend was kind of bad, [clears throat]12:09at least initially?12:11Well, it's because markets pre-run these12:14[clears throat] things. We've talked12:15about this so many times on the channel.12:17This one here from Volume Leaders showed12:19us the third largest transaction came12:21through just before the middle of the12:23month, kind of the 11th, 12th of12:25September, and we got a monster12:27transaction on Zop, one of the big ETFs.12:30Since then, we've seen markets, of12:31course, topping out in oil, and12:33actually, oil has had a bit of a12:35pullback. Does that mean it's over for12:37oil? Probably not, uh unless something12:39happens, but the market itself has12:42front-run the news. And that's why we12:43often say, if it's in the press, it's in12:44the price. It was a beautiful technical12:47correlation that we'll look at on12:49today's show, and you can see it if12:50you're a first-time viewer. Some other12:52things that we're looking at moving12:53forward, I'm still very much interested12:55in what's going on with home builders. I12:57think it underpins a lot of the US12:59economy and world economy, and of13:01course, the interaction with this13:03previous support on semiconductors. So13:06far, the market's kind of done a little13:08weird island reversal here, and it's13:10testing this resistance. Now, if13:12semiconductors are allowed to unleash13:13again13:14for whatever reason, then that can13:17really get the market started. So, at13:18the moment, we're being led by tech, and13:21that's actually okay. And what's13:22happened so far is the markets are going13:25to a new high. Now, if it's going to13:26follow a 1978-79 plan, which is13:30kind of where we're correlated to at the13:32moment, then this is where the disaster13:35could happen. But, be careful, guys.13:37It's not a necessary future that we13:40absolutely have to see. It's just the13:41most correlated market as of the time13:44that we're discussing it.13:46Before we jump any further into the big13:48key charts that are moving the markets13:49right now, remember if you're interested13:51in finding out a little bit up from my13:5217 years of experience, understanding,13:55talking to people in the industry, and13:57really picking up a couple of tips and13:58tricks, then I share those one chart,14:00one story, one market lesson. I popped14:02out another one over the last 24 hours.14:04Great email, and hopefully you guys14:06enjoyed it. Totally free. Links in the14:08pin comment down below. Remember to do14:10the two FA, otherwise you won't get a14:12copy of it, guys. So, make sure to press14:13yes, you do accept to want to actually14:16get the email, otherwise it's not going14:18to come through, is it? Let's now jump14:20into the charts themselves and have a14:22look at the S&P 500 stocks above the14:2420-day. So, this is not so good. Uh the14:27amount of breadth has obviously been14:28down. You might think initially that's14:30bad, but to start a new breadth market,14:32generally you're going to get tech.14:34Notice that the percentage of stocks14:35above the 50 also was falling close14:38underneath 30 at one point there. And14:41although it's not to my favorite 2014:42level, uh we are kind of still at a14:45pretty bad breadth there for markets.14:47But, tech if tech's doing okay, usually14:49the US market can hold for now. Now,14:51here's where things get interesting.14:53These financials. Now, this is KBE, but14:55we've also looked at, of course, XLF for14:58weeks now. And the financials15:00themselves, they're just not that15:02strong, and they're coming under15:03pressure because of AI, and supposedly15:06this AI is going to take a huge effect15:08on banks and bring out new banks in the15:10future, which is kind of cool, I guess,15:12in some ways. But, have a look here at15:14XLF. Also, have a look at KRE. And if15:17this turns out that it's actually15:19because people are less uh uh taking on15:21less debt, then that's going to be a15:24huge driver to potentially the downside15:27when it comes to everything that we know15:29about regional banks and and everything15:31surrounding them. So, yeah, a couple of15:33interesting things there. We have to15:35watch those banks. If they keep falling,15:37the market keeps rallying,15:39we have to start asking the question of15:40bonds. And if bonds go bad, then we're15:43in trouble. Speaking of treasuries,15:44they're stabilized around the Besant15:46levels, so so far so good in terms of15:48holding that key zone. And the Cosby15:51futures for the semiconductors and tech15:53stuff, it's just gone back to the15:55resistance. And what we're seeing is the15:57market's being selective about a couple15:59of stocks. It's not just buying every16:01single one again. It's being selective,16:03but technology in general, XLK, it's16:06approaching those all-time highs. So16:09again, strong price action at the16:11moment. It seems to be rallying. There's16:13no real signs of weakness in this16:15market. And a lot of people are seeing16:16it as like a dullness in the markets.16:19Speaking of dullness, take a look at16:20MAGS. It came up to that little16:22resistance when compared to the spy, but16:24if we have a look at the MAGS, it was16:26kind of threatening this for a little16:27while. We've covered this stock and we16:29saw16:31the improvement underneath the hood of16:32the top 10 stocks really. I know MAGS is16:34seven, but generally tech in general was16:37actually improving. And that was a dull16:40market on the small time frames. And we16:42have a saying here on the channel, never16:44short a dull market, guys, cuz it tends16:46to face rip you. And in this case,16:48that's kind of what's happened the last16:49couple of sessions. How long does it16:50last for? Is it for the rest of16:52September? Will we get a like that kind16:55of sell in October? Price action is16:57probably going to be the key. Follow the16:59channel, we'll see if there's anything17:00that comes out of left field. In terms17:03of the New York Stock Exchange, still17:05hovering, it's stabilized. You can see17:07the advanced decline line stabilizing as17:09well. And in terms of quick watch here17:12for the horror show areas that we're17:14watching, home builders still kind of17:16holding the support.17:18And Carvana starting to drop. So, we are17:20watching to see whether there's a17:22weakness in the consumer and more17:24importantly the debt markets overall.17:26Copper looking good. So, copper's just17:29gone and made a new all-time high and17:32it's continued to remain dull and it17:34held that 20 weekly moving average. So,17:36just goes to show why it's so important17:38to use your TA to recognize that there's17:41trend or non-trend changes. Gold17:44meanwhile holding that trendline to the17:46downside. Just kind of sitting. No not17:49through 4400, but it has stabilized a17:51bit. And silver actually, is that a17:53flag? Is this actually going to close17:56above 68? You know, the thing about17:58silver is it's both a usable metal and a18:01and a precious metal. So, often it will18:03go with copper18:05and maybe even oil at some point, but18:07yeah, again kind of a resistance here,18:09interesting point. US oil, no surprises18:12that we saw oil kind of top out at these18:14levels. Look at that cross correlation18:16with Brent and US oil. And we've now18:19dropped down, still a freight train18:20towards the downside. So, what we're18:22looking for a structure. And you might18:24think, well, is that it for oil?18:26I have a suspicion it may not be, but at18:28the same time18:30that's a suspicion. Where is the18:32structure? Where is the market actually18:34going to pick up? And that's why it's18:36important to watch the charts, watch the18:38price action. All right, let's now take18:39a look at crack. That continues to be18:42kind of a high price. So, generally18:44speaking yes,18:45we've seen some drop in diesel over the18:47last 24 hours, but or last couple of18:49sessions, but in general it still18:51remains high, which means it's possibly18:53going to flow on to the rest of the18:54economy. Let's take a look at Qs. So, Qs18:56went positive gamma last week and19:00they've continued to push through. You19:01can see they're testing that resistance19:03high and all of the current call options19:05have moved towards 750 on the Qs. So,19:09new all-time high, that could start19:11another positive gamma kind of movement.19:13And note here that SPX is the same. Very19:16close to 7,800, which is where the19:19general majority of calls sit.19:22It acts as a potential resistance, but19:24if markets are able to rally through19:25that, then it could become a squeeze.19:27And again, you don't usually want to be19:29against the squeeze unless you like19:31fighting the the kind of current in19:33these cases. US 500, similar thing. Look19:36at this, it's rallied above 7750. So,19:39for now still higher highs and higher19:41lows. We go over to Bitcoin, we saw19:43positive gamma squeeze it through. We19:46got stories of huge amounts of19:47liquidations of shorts. Is it at the19:50resistances yet? Well, let's take a look19:52at Bitcoin on the charts.19:54And one of the things that I like to do19:56is I like to always know where the most19:57traded areas are. So, we're not even19:59quite at that 89 to 90k yet zone, but um20:03I've kind of scribbled out up here20:05because I think this could be where20:07equilibrium lies. At the moment, it's20:09higher highs higher lows. The risks, of20:11course, are that just markets lose20:13themselves for whatever reason. The20:15benefits are that it's currently doing20:18little higher highs and higher lows. So,20:20yeah, the crypto markets, super20:22exciting, I guess, for crypto bulls last20:2424-48 hours. Um but in general, it20:27probably doesn't surprise anyone if20:29you've been talking or watching our20:31channel and and thinking about the pit20:33and the way that markets move. 75%20:36according to Glassnode of positions now20:38back in the green. So, that's20:40interesting. Guys, if you enjoyed20:42today's video, then please remember to20:44go and subscribe. And also, one chart,20:47one story, one market lesson, links in20:48the comment section down below and pin20:51comment. And in general, I think, you20:53know, to summarize this market, which we20:55like to do at the end of the session,20:57the main thing happening right now is20:59that markets are shrugging off moon21:01concerns. It's probably going to come21:03down to one of those three things we21:05talk about. The bonds market has started21:07to show some shuddering. We have to21:09watch the financial story,21:11transportations as well. Probably look21:13at that again over the next 24 to 4821:15hours. But markets have a resilience21:18behind them during these kind of big21:20runs. And one of the things that we21:22mentioned before, which was of course21:24the Russell 2000. What you'll notice is21:26although that looks absolutely crappy on21:28charts at the moment, and you can see21:30here it's pulled back, it's still in21:33general holding some of its higher time21:35frames. And I think the thing is about21:37the Russell is that it's so important21:40that it still does maintain. Because if21:43it doesn't, then we're starting to lose21:45almost inside if you think about it as21:47markets, we're starting to lose part of21:48the K. We're losing the small caps. So21:51if you think about it, this is the large21:52caps, that's all cool when they're going21:53well, but we do want the small caps as21:56well. And especially what's going on21:59with the regional banks. Because22:00remember, as Jamie Dimon says, where22:02there's one cockroach, there could be22:03many. At the moment a miniature level of22:06demand. Let's see whether it can hold22:07over the next coming sessions. Thanks so22:09much for watching. Bye for now.
4,378 words · 640 lines
![바벨로우의 올바른 운동법 [헬스바이블] Barbell Row Workout](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/IBG8XWAyeGQ/hqdefault.jpg)
![스쿼트의 올바른운동법 1편-로우바스쿼트[헬스바이블]How to Lowbar Squat Workout](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/S-RabrFWCXU/hqdefault.jpg)
![스쿼트의 올바른운동법 2편-하이바스쿼트[헬스바이블]How to High bar Squat Workout](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/MbGk9dzNg2I/hqdefault.jpg)
