Transcript of BREAKING: Gold...
TraderNick
0:00Precious metals are down again today0:02with gold down 1.65% and silver down0:053.5%.0:07Kind of a brutal give back here in the0:09precious metals, especially when we had0:11kind of seen a little bit of progress0:13being made here. Uh bottoming out for0:15silver around this $63 an ounce or 50%0:18retracement zone and for gold finding0:21support or at least trying to still hold0:23support around the 61.8% to 50%0:26retracement zone. But today we are0:29threatening to actually start0:31potentially breaking lower and fail out0:33on this recent gold pullback. And I0:36think this is kind of mission critical0:37if you're watching precious metals from0:38a technical perspective because we've0:41gone from this very persistent downtrend0:44bare market that we've seen in 2026 to a0:47bit of a rally getting started here. But0:50now is the time to prove it. Are we0:52going to put in some kind of higher low0:54here and continue the rally that started0:57here in the summer months, July and0:58August, or are we going to fizzle out,1:01fail out at this support level? And if1:04that happens, my personal opinion is1:06that if you lose this 61.8% retracement1:08zone, you're more likely to potentially1:11head back down and retest the low end of1:13this year's range. We do have to respect1:15price action here. And that means, in my1:17view, that if you lose the 61.8% 8%1:20retracement. This prior level of key1:22support for the bulls. If you start to1:24lose that for me in the short term, that1:27signals maybe some more pain ahead in1:29the precious metals world.1:32And one thing that got things moving1:33here is some strength in the dollar this1:35morning following the flash1:36manufacturing and flash services PMI1:39numbers. both considerably beat1:41expectations showing resilience in the1:43US economy uh which strengthens the1:46dollar and puts downward pressure on1:48gold and logically this makes sense if1:50the economy is picking up its pace and1:52projections here looking forward1:54according to purchasing managers which1:56is what the purchasing managers index1:58shows uh that is more of a headwind for2:00gold. Gold typically likes slowing2:02economic data, people not employed,2:05people worried about, you know, uh,2:06fiscal spending going out of control,2:08which those things are still true. I2:09think that there's still the debasement2:11fear, etc. But remember that if the2:14narrative around economic growth2:16improves, that is a negative story2:18typically for gold. Another headwind is2:20the fact that oil is up today or at2:23least rebounding a little bit from2:24yesterday's sell-off. We had seen from2:26the peaked trough a move down around 17%2:30for oil. And one part of me is like,2:32well, why the heck did that not get gold2:35moving higher, right? Cooling inflation2:37expectations through lower lower oil2:39prices is very, very strong for the2:42precious metal. And I actually had2:43people pushing back on me. I get this2:44all the time. People say, "What do you2:46mean, Nick? Inflation is bullish for2:48gold." And over the very long term, that2:50actually is pretty true. That holds up2:52pretty well. But what we're talking2:54about on this channel is shorter term to2:56medium-term trading primarily and higher2:59inflation typically invokes the Federal3:02Reserve to raise interest rates making3:05the dollar stronger because of its3:07competitive you know offering higher3:10yield that becomes more attractive to3:12bond investors and people wanting to uh3:14invest into the US system right if3:17they're going to get higher yield and3:18that is a bearish pressure on gold in3:20the short term. So yes, longer term, I3:22hear you. Don't worry. Inflation uh high3:25in levels of inflation can actually be3:27good for gold. But that's long term,3:29right? That's if inflation stays3:31elevated and the Federal Reserve3:32ultimately backs off raising rates and3:35you still are left with commodity prices3:37and and uh trending higher and fiscal3:40spending still blowing out and tons of3:42money printing. I understand the3:44long-term bullish thesis, but on this3:46channel, we do focus heavily on the3:47short term as well. and oil here at3:50least also kind of respecting this this3:51upward trend line here. I think if you3:54are a bull on precious metals, this3:56moving lower helps does not hurt. Right?3:58So let me explain what I mean by this.4:00the state of the Middle East in any way,4:02if negotiations improve, if the4:05President uh Trump and President Xi4:07meeting, which is supposed to take place4:08soon, if those things go well and maybe4:11we make some geopolitical progress, as4:13counterintuitive as that might sound, it4:15would arguably be very good for gold in4:18my view because cooling inflation4:20expectations are a, you know, very4:24positive story for gold. And so again, I4:26would kind of encourage you to to not4:29just think blanket statement of high4:31inflation means gold moves up. Because4:33if you want to know why gold has moved4:35down so much this year, it's because of4:38inflation. Uh in fact, inflation4:40expectations rising has been a lead4:43reason to why the dollar has4:44strengthened. Federal Reserve's uh4:46tightening monetary policy and not just4:48the Fed, but globally, central banks are4:50hiking rates to sort of keep inflation4:53at bay. And in case you need further4:54proof on this inflation causes gold to4:57go up thesis, here's pretty much what4:59happened this year. Inflation started5:01rising dramatically. And that when we5:04were getting close back down to, you5:05know, we're in 2025, late 2025, we still5:07look like we're generally making the5:09move towards that 2% target, which would5:11have allowed the Federal Reserve to5:13continue cutting interest rates and5:14cooling things off. Well, not so fast. A5:16war breaks out, inflation rises, and5:19does gold go up with that inflation? No.5:21it craters lower down 29%.5:25So again, leave behind that concept of5:28inflation equals gold bullish. It is not5:31the case in the short term. Long-term,5:33sure, fiat currency destruction,5:35debasement of the currency over the next5:375 years, 10 years. That might be a bull5:39case. High levels of inflation might5:41ultimately cause distrust in the system5:43and people flock to gold. That's5:44different. That is not what we're5:46talking about here. When we're talking5:47about spikes in inflation, we're5:49assuming the economy right now is still5:51in a fairly strong position to deal with5:54that inflation by hiking interest rates,5:56which strengthens the dollar and hurts5:58gold. By the way, if you like these5:59sorts of breakdowns and these macro6:01conversations, make sure to thumbs up6:03the video down below. Oh, and if you6:04want to try out the tool that I'm using6:05here to break down inflation reports and6:07get a better understanding of why6:09markets are moving, uh, then I highly6:11recommend you try out our software,6:13EdgeFinder. I don't know if you guys6:14remember this, but when the war broke6:16out, I saw content creators in the6:18trading space misguiding heavily about6:21what would happen to gold following the6:23war breakout. I don't know if you guys6:25remember this, but during the war6:27breakout, gold had been running up like6:29monstrous. And and people were all over6:32the internet saying gold's going to6:34skyrocket on the Middle East conflict.6:36And if you go back and watch the videos6:38at that time, this is how powerful macro6:40is. We were absolutely not in the same6:43camp. Higher inflation put a massive6:46bearish pressure on gold. And so if you6:49understand this stuff at a deep enough6:51level, you can actually follow trends6:52and macro stories that are taking place6:54and be on the right side of moves rather6:57than thinking, oh, inflation's going to6:58go up, gold's going to move higher.7:00Right? That is a very mistaken thesis7:02that would have cost you a pretty penny7:03in 2026 if you had, you know, leverage7:06longs uh trading gold higher. And7:08really, this is where the the conflict7:10took place. As you can see, we started7:12really getting worried about things in7:14February and March. And that was pretty7:15much the top before inflation rose and7:17gold fell. And for my friends out there7:19using EdgeFinder, first of all, I very7:21much appreciate your business if you're7:22a customer of ours using our tools.7:25Second of all, I want to get you guys'7:26thoughts on something. I've been working7:29uh the last few days on these new7:31variations of the top setups layout7:33page. Now, the top setups page is7:35basically my watch list. It's it's a7:36created watch list that looks at, you7:39know, all sorts of macro fundamental7:40metrics like inflation data, jobs data,7:42economic data, uh, crowd sentiment, coot7:45report, and technicals. It automates all7:47of that data that it's importing in here7:50into a simplete scorecard that7:52ultimately generates a nice watch list7:54for traders. Um, I want to show you this7:56because I would love to get you guys'7:58thoughts. I have three variations that7:59I'm going to show you here, and if you8:01don't care about this, feel free to skip8:02ahead, but I would ask that you help me8:04out if you could with this. thesis.8:06Which of these looks the cleanest and8:09most understandable to you? Top setups8:11one, which is the original, which8:13basically what we're going to do here is8:14we just have all variables, all uh8:17metrics here lined up. The trade-off8:20here is that the text size is a little8:21bit smaller to account for how many8:23metrics we are considering automatically8:25by edgefinder. Um, but let's take a look8:27at top setups two. Top setups two, we've8:30condensed things a little bit. economic8:31growth has been factored into more col8:34or or fewer columns right so have8:36economic growth inflation and jobs8:38market within this there's CPI PPI PCE8:41interest rates etc jobs market you have8:43non-farm payroll um unemployment rate8:46unemployment claims things like that8:47just sort of packed into a simpler uh8:50sort of automated uh cal column here and8:54then finally top setups three let me8:55know if anyone likes this one and if you8:58like this one this or this this concept9:00is basically removing some of the9:02numerical stuff and instead just giving9:04a um sort of uh English word variation,9:08right? So technicals are very bullish.9:10Crowd sentiment is giving us a bullish9:11reading. Economic data is very bullish9:13and we still overall have the total9:15score. So if you guys could do me a9:16favor, comment down below one, two, or9:19three, which one do you like the best?9:21Which one matters most to you? Oh, and9:24by the way, on all three of them, we9:25have added more filters so that you can9:27actually scan your your reading here for9:30stuff that maybe has a strong technical9:32read, etc. Giving more customization to9:35our users, which by the way is the9:37ultimate goal is to make data more9:39accessible and easier to read for our9:41traders. So, let me know down below. And9:43if you want to try out EdgeFinder, then9:45scan the QR code that you see on your9:46screen right now to try it out. We offer9:483-day free trials. We also offer9:50extended trials and a free course on how9:53to use EdgeFinder if that's something9:54that you're interested in exploring in9:56greater detail. Gone are the days where9:57macro fundamentals are only for hedge10:00funds and institutions that have10:01ginormous proprietary tools. At A110:04Trading, we're trying to build stuff10:05that makes it accessible to the everyday10:07trader and keeps things simple. So, with10:09that said, let's take a look at top10:11setups, too, to get some ideas here10:13around current markets. And I can kind10:15of show you how this stuff works in10:16action. So what we see here is we have10:19excluded neutral readings. If I add10:21neutral readings, we have way more10:22charts here within edgeinder. We track a10:24ton of stuff. However, let's actually10:27remove the neutrals cuz I want to look10:28for stuff that just has conviction. And10:30what we have here is the dollar is10:32getting a bullish rating, which if I10:34take a look at US dollar here, um you10:36can see the dollar is kind of going10:38beast mode right now. We're breaking10:39out. We actually have to change uh this10:42level of past resistance into p now10:45turned support. We've broken clean10:47through level after level here and the10:49bulls look really strong. I actually10:50think that if price retraces, there's a10:52good chance that the bulls continue to10:54take this thing higher and we may be10:56very well headed back to retest the top10:58end of this range that has been plaguing11:00us for the last year and a half on the11:02dollar index. If you're a futures trader11:04looking to get funded, then check out11:06today's video sponsor, Prop Shop Trader.11:08Prop Trader allows traders a ton of room11:11to scale up all in one prop. And on11:14their platform, you can trade up to 4011:15different accounts simultaneously for a11:17total of $1 million in simulated11:20capital. They offer a wide variety of11:22different account types to find11:23something that fits your trading style.11:25Whether you're a swing trader, a day11:26trader, whether you trade gold or11:28futures of any sort, they've got a ton11:30of different options here. They also11:32have very competitive pricing and the11:34option between their flex futures11:36assessment, their pro futures11:37assessment, and direct futures, which11:39allows you to skip the assessment11:40entirely. And if you want to check them11:42out, down below in the description,11:43we'll be leaving a discount promo code11:45to get you an extra discount at11:47checkout. And you can explore all the11:49different details to see if this is the11:50right fit for you and your style of11:52trading. One thing that stands out about11:54Prop Trader is they are super11:55transparent about their rules and what11:58it takes to get funded and have success12:00on their platform. Again, I would12:01encourage you to take some time, review12:03all the different plan snapshots here to12:05find which one might suit you best. They12:07offer [music] access to the tick blaze12:08and rhythmic platform for traders who12:10are interested in which platforms they12:12offer. And they have more coming soon as12:14well. And a big thing, like I said, is12:16transparency around their challenge uh12:18breaches and things like that, which12:19they have mapped out very thoroughly on12:21their site pages. You can review all the12:23different details about daily loss12:25limits, news events, position limits,12:26max draw downs, hard breach, soft12:28breach, inactivity, and prohibited12:30conduct within the platform. So, if you12:32are interested in exploring Prop Shop12:33Trader and what they have to offer, then12:35check out the links in the description12:37down below to review more. And like I12:39said, don't forget to use our promo code12:40that you'll see on the screen right now12:42for extra discounts at checkout. Thanks12:44again to Prop Trader for sponsoring.12:46Now, back to the video. I'm going to12:47remove minor currency pairs since I12:49personally don't really trade them very12:50often and instead I'm going to kind of12:52just filter out a smaller list here. So,12:55what we can see is that from a overall12:57view, we have the dollar getting a12:58bullish rating. Uh, and that's again13:01taking a look at technicals, crowd13:02sentiment, economic growth, and jobs13:04market data generally giving us a13:05bullish signal with coot and inflation13:07giving us a neutral one. I'm sorry, I13:09realized I just read the Nikay's13:10reading. For the dollar, we have strong13:12technicals, economic growth, that should13:15be not blue. I'll take a look at that13:17shortly. And inflation data is slightly13:19leaning positive in favor of stronger13:21dollar, which makes sense. Higher13:23yields, PPI was higher than expected.13:25We're dealing with some higher13:26inflation, and that's causing the dollar13:27to look strong. On the flip side, we13:29have some bearish readings on indices.13:31Let's take a look at that. So, the Dow13:33Jones comes to mind here as it is our13:35weakest score right now on edgefinder13:37for indices. What we can see here is13:39it's getting a minus 6 reading and we've13:41sort of lost this really solid upward13:43trend that we were in. I would argue13:45that we are still in a longerterm bull13:48market here for stocks. So, I'm going to13:50be cautious about potentially taking a13:52short position. But one area that would13:53look more interesting than others to me13:55would be if we actually saw a breakdown13:57further in the Dow Jones. Let's say, for13:59example, we break support here and start14:02to retest into this area. This actually14:05looks like a logical short trade to14:06potentially make a move back down to14:0850,000. We're dealing with higher14:10inflation, interest rates on the rise.14:12And so I think that it is possible that14:14some of these more valuebased uh14:16industrial type companies could face14:18some headwinds through higher costs of14:21both borrowing and inflation uh causes14:24their prices to to go up for doing14:26business. Not to mention diesel prices,14:29you know, gas prices being elevated puts14:31some more heavy weight on the bottom14:34side of their balance sheet or their14:36their income statement, right? their14:37expenses go up due to higher costs. So14:39for the Dow Jones, I'd be potentially14:41looking at a short trade up in this area14:43here or a break and retest short. As14:46long as EdgeFinder's overall reading14:48continues to look bearish, that actually14:50looks like a plausible short setup for14:52me going forward. Another one that I'd14:53be watching is the Russell 2000, which14:56continues to get battered here and is14:58well off of its all-time highs. While15:00the NASDAQ is at its all-time highs, the15:02Russell's down almost 7% here and15:04considerably uh is being, you know,15:07basically sold into each time we get any15:09sort of a rally going. A rally up into15:12this 2930 level looks like a short trade15:14that I think I would be potentially15:16interested in taking to counteract some15:18of the bearishness. Let's talk about one15:19that's actually getting a bullish15:20rating. Here is the Nikke, which is15:23actually outperforming reasonably here.15:25We have a plus five reading overall. And15:28so when we take a look at this one, we15:29can pull up Nikke and we can look at15:30this and say, "All right, we're looking15:32for some kind of breakout retest15:33opportunity here." Uh, that actually15:36looks kind of attractive. So I could15:38potentially even be simultaneously long15:40the Nikkay and short the Dow Jones or15:44short the Russell, etc. One reason that15:46the indices are showing up as more15:48bearish readings right now or one15:50contributing factor is the fact that15:52crowd sentiment is sort of jumping onto15:54the bullish side here in the short term.15:56though I want to be careful with that15:58because if we take a look at the AI16:00investor sentiment survey, this is more16:01a survey asking investors where they're16:04at. Investors longer term are still16:06seeing a bearish outlook on the stock16:08market. And I take this as more of a16:10contrarian reading. So in one hand, we16:12have short-term call volume is16:14exploding. So a bunch of people bought16:16calls recently and maybe that's why the16:18stock market is down today. We're kind16:20of punishing the uh the call volume hit16:22that took place. But also longer term,16:24you have a lot of pessimism in the16:26markets. And that to me actually signals16:28more of a bullish reading. In fact, we16:30have another tool called the scenario16:31back tests where we've actually studied16:33the AI investor sentiment survey and16:36found that when bullish or I'm sorry,16:37bearish sentiment is above 35%.16:40The forward-looking returns are actually16:42pretty solid. And that is kind of the16:44case here. Well, this is the case,16:46right? We have crowd sentiment uh 5016:48plus% bearish right now. So maybe take16:51that to the extreme in terms of where16:53maybe markets rally on that fear from16:55investors. That said, what would get me16:57more bullish on stocks and indices?16:59Well, one thing that would is of course17:01the turn of the calendar month. As we go17:03into actually what we can do here is we17:05can pull up our seasonality scanner.17:07We'll go annual seasonality. And if we17:10take a look at the seasonality for the17:12year, for the rest of the year, what we17:14find is that S&P 500, which has already17:16started to rally against the kind of17:18historical negative end of September17:21seasonality, we've sort of broken ranks17:22already. If the S&P 500 holds to its17:26historical seasonality, we are in for a17:28runway of where stocks tend to perform17:31the best, which is that October,17:32November, December period. Though to be17:35fair, this year specifically, we have17:37November uh midterms. November 3rd, we17:40have the midterms. So, it's possible17:41that maybe that rally gets postponed17:43until uh November, and maybe a little17:45bit of it has already been pulled17:46forward in this recent jolt higher that17:48we've seen in the S&P 500. For the gold17:50traders, we can also flipped over to17:52this chart, see what this has for us.17:54And what we can see here is that we have17:56a little bit of pessimism here in terms17:58of uh 10-year average performance, but18:00then we also see a bit of a bump in18:02October. And I would not be surprised if18:04October we see a little bit of a bump in18:06gold price simply because you have18:07midterm uncertainty ahead which gives18:10you know maybe a little bit of uh18:12attractiveness to gold sort of to camp18:15out and hide out from uh those worries.18:17Midterms cause a lot of uncertainties18:19and can cause all sorts of wild18:21volatility moves. Bitcoin's also pulling18:23back. Is this a viable dip? Well, from a18:25technical perspective, I think it looks18:27really good. But from a actual breakdown18:29on Bitcoin, I'm very very neutral on18:32this one. I think you have high18:34inflation, rising rates. That's a tough18:36environment for me to get really bullish18:37on gold or uh bullish on um Bitcoin. And18:40we have some neutrality in terms of18:42economic growth and jobs data. So, what18:44would get me more bullish in terms of18:46like a riskon bias? Well, it would be if18:48we had a round of economic data that18:51beat expectations and or the jobs market18:54starting to tick up a little bit,18:55showing resiliency there would actually18:57be something where I'm more interested18:58in buying stocks, not less. I know that19:00a lot of people would say, well, if the19:02jobs market heats up, they're going to19:03rate uh rate hike. But I'm not too19:05worried about that. I I think that the19:07market can afford to hike rates and not19:09fall apart because the economy is still19:11relatively strong. But where we see19:14blemishes would be the labor market,19:16right? If we see the labor market stay19:18strong, that's more confidence building19:20in the dollar and the US stock market.19:22And economic growth, same story. I think19:24it would be good to see if we had19:26economic growth beat expectations.19:29Manufacturing and services PMIs, if they19:31beat expectations. We had the flash19:32numbers this morning. Um, but this one19:34tracks the ISM. So, when we get the ISM,19:37manufacturing and services PMIs, that19:38will be really interesting to see if19:40that causes some uh strength or or19:43forward guidance that looks strong for19:44the US economy. Trading fundamentals can19:47be a lot of hard work, [music] but we19:49actually made a pretty cool free19:51Telegram channel where we are publishing19:53constantly updates on what is going on19:56from a macro fundamentals perspective.19:58[music]19:58And no, it's not AI. It's not written by20:00a robot. It's written by a real person20:02on our team. His name is Allan. He puts20:04together a report each day on what is20:06going on on things like gold, currency20:08pairs, commodities, [music] indices,20:10etc. on a global financial fundamental20:13analysis basis. It's a really cool20:15newsletter where you can basically stay20:16on top of things by reading for like a20:18minute per day. If that would be20:20interesting to you to join the free20:22Telegram channel, there is a link in the20:24description down below on this [music]20:25video that you can join and get into the20:28action there. We also offer special20:30discount perks for our products [music]20:32as well as for funded accounts and for20:35brokerages, etc. And we also do some20:37giveaways as well. So definitely take a20:39second to join the Telegram channel in20:41the description [music] down below. I20:43also want to take a second to just20:44genuinely thank you for supporting my20:46content here. Make sure to subscribe and20:47[music] hit the thumbs up button if you20:49have not already. And I do hope that20:50more videos in the future will continue20:52to help you on your trading journey.20:54Good luck. Thanks for watching.
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