Transcript of Are Private Equity Markets Failing? Sp500, Nasdaq Analysis
FX Evolution - Trading Academy
0:00The latest reports are pretty shocking0:02whether you're a trader or an investor0:03right now in markets. And the reason is0:06quite simple. Private equity. It looks0:08like there's problems starting to arise0:10once again that we saw in 2025. But0:13could this time be a little different?0:15With banks dropping, big movements in0:18bonds over the last 24 hours, treasuries0:20literally hitting levels we haven't seen0:22since 2004, and of course, even big0:26signs of issues in the housing market.0:29Guys, whether you like stocks,0:31commodities, or cryptos, we've got a lot0:33to unpack in today's video as we dive0:36into what's really happening in these0:37markets and whether they can hold up0:39thanks to one sector alone. See you very0:42soon. This video is not to be missed.0:48Well, welcome back guys to one of the0:49largest daily shows on the planet thanks0:51to you. Today we need to discuss a very0:53important topic, the change in market0:56dynamics. On the left hand side, we have0:58tech and it seems to be all good. But on1:00the right hand side, we see stuff that1:03is starting to struggle, particularly1:05the consumer discretionary stocks. So,1:07what exactly is going on and why should1:09we be paying attention more to the bonds1:11market than ever before? Hello and1:14welcome to the channel. My name is1:15Thomas and I've been in markets for over1:1717 years, breaking down institutional1:19style insights and of course behavioral1:21finance for how Wall Street tries to1:23trap us as retail traders and investors.1:26In today's video, we'll break down the1:27macro and of course some of the biggest1:29storylines as private equity comes back1:32into focus once again in 2026. Let's1:35start the story here though with1:36consumer cyclicals because there seems1:38to be something going on underneath the1:40hood. And many of you have probably1:42already seen the memes coming out about1:44McDonald's over the last 24 hours as we1:47see this stock falling to levels that we1:49haven't had in many, many years. You'd1:52think McDonald's was a bit of a1:53defensive, but clearly in an1:54inflationary environment and also an1:57environment of change, even the best are2:00starting to struggle. Another one that's2:02come up many, many times over is of2:03course Nike. And Nike is just absolutely2:07falling off a cliff, continuously making2:09lower lows and lower highs as it drops2:12to, you know, levels that you just2:14wouldn't think we would reach over the2:16last couple of years. So why is this so2:18important? Well, it starts to show that2:20onethird of the US economy in this Kwave2:22cycle is starting to struggle in2:25particular and that is of course the2:26American consumer. It becomes really2:28important as well when we start to back2:30it with bonds as we're starting to see2:32signs of the private credit funds again2:35cracking. Now, there are reports here2:37that Apollo Global, one of the world's2:39largest monetary funds, has just limited2:42withdrawals again from its flagship2:44private credit. This is the third2:46consecutive quarter. And I think that's2:48important. Third consecutive quarter2:51where we've seen these types of funds do2:54this. And this is now capping of course2:56redemptions at 5%. And it's not the2:58first story that we've seen here. This3:00one uh from Olivia Fishlo going down and3:03kind of breaking out the concepts here3:06that a lot of these are actually still3:08redemptions left over from previous3:10months where they're rolling over trying3:12to get out of the funds. So what's that3:14telling us? Well, maybe there's3:16something happening underneath the hood.3:18Could these be early exits? Are these3:20guys smart or is capital just starting3:22to get a little bit tighter? Morgan3:24Stanley again from Olivia here in3:26Bloomberg just 24 hours ago wrote out3:29that Morgan Stanley capping its credit3:31fund again as 11% want out and seems to3:35be something that's going on across the3:36board. Remember just 3 months ago we saw3:39private equity funds having a bit of a3:41what looks to be now a dead cap bounce3:43and we reported it here on the channel3:45and we talked about how it would be3:46tough for the market to really fall over3:49while they were going up but now things3:51are just like this changing and if3:53you've been watching financials over the3:55last couple of days as well something3:56weird seems to be happening there now I3:58think Callum Thomas over on X is doing a4:01great job here at Topown Charts kind of4:03showing us though that there are kind of4:06similarities ities here that are getting4:07a little concerning. Remember, no4:09investor likes the idea of bonds. In4:12fact, if you go back to most of my4:14career during that 2010 to 201 kind of4:171920 period, people really like bonds.4:19Bonds were pretty popular post GFC and4:22they were all the rage. In fact, people4:24were buying 100-year bonds and this4:26sounds ridiculous at negative interest4:28rates.4:31Just let that sink in. Wild. Yeah. Fast4:34forward to 2026. No one likes them. And4:36you can actually see allocations are4:38really low. And I think it's the4:39allocation component that becomes4:41interesting here because when we've seen4:43it this low in the past, we've just been4:46around the corner from a late cycle4:48bust. And that means that something4:51might be a foot over the next, you know,4:536, 12, 24 months. Interested to know4:56whether you guys think it's going to4:57happen as well anytime soon. I'm going4:59to put a poll up and I want you to give5:02us your real opinion here. It doesn't5:04matter if you disagree with me or you5:06agree or anything. The beautiful thing5:07about markets is there's multiple5:09different ways to look at it. And then5:10let's guess, you know, most of this is5:12crystal ball stuff when you're starting5:13to talk about the end of an epic um5:17because economic run. You know, you5:18never really know, do you? Now, let's5:20have a look here at semiconductors. This5:22was the story of the last kind of week5:24or two weeks. And I've gone through here5:26and this is Koin data. And it really5:28shows that the monthto date so far it5:30really has been about just three5:32sectors. semis tech communication. So5:35basically tech tech tech. Now why is5:37that important? Well tech tends to take5:39us out of problem times. But do remember5:42less than 30% of stocks are currently5:46trading above their 50-day moving5:48average. Less than what is it was like5:5020% 21% of stocks are trading above5:54their 20-day moving average. So5:56effectively we had a huge selloff in5:58breadth just recently. What takes you6:01out of a breath bad kind of run?6:03Generally, it's tech. But there are some6:05similarities to the 1970s we have to6:07talk about in the moment. Now, if we6:08look at the last 5 days, it becomes even6:11stronger for tech. In fact, software6:13also comes up and biotech. And do6:16remember if we've been thinking about6:17the last couple of months, we went6:19through kind of a cycle. As of June, we6:22had biotech and healthcare becoming the6:25best sectors we looked at on the channel6:26here. Then we moved into gold becoming6:29one of the best sectors along with6:31silver and other things. Then of course6:33it was XLE energy coming back, diesel in6:36particular, that becoming an6:38inflationary concern. More on that in a6:40moment. And then now we're getting of6:43course a movement. Oh, we had a bit of6:44software in between there as well. But6:45then now we're moving back to tech. And6:47what I kind of want to show is that this6:49is just in a couple of months yet it's6:52been a stock selection sector selection6:54market. And what that shows you is6:56something we always talk about here on6:58the channel and it means different7:00things to different people. Some people7:01think that it means I'm reading tarot7:03cards. Realistically, abundance. And7:05that is that we live in a time of great7:08information. You have more information7:10than ever before, but also dangerous7:12information and good information. But7:14guess what? If you're trading the US7:16market, if you're investing in the US7:17market, you're going into the best in7:19the world. Why? Because there's7:21abundance, guys. And it's something that7:23always excites me about these markets.7:24Even after making thousands of videos7:26for you, you know, there's always7:28something new coming. And it's just a7:30beautiful thing. And then once you start7:31thinking about it that way, markets7:33become so much easier. They just become7:36so much clearer. And you don't have to7:37listen to some dude telling you about7:39how he made a bazillion dollars on some7:41weird semiconductor stock and then, you7:44know, he goes quiet over the last 37:45months. I bet you've had a couple of7:47those in your life. Let me know in the7:48comments down below if you've had7:49someone. Hopefully that hasn't been you.7:51Now, let's take a look at the Fed7:52decision. So, we've got some rotation7:54into tech. What about the Fed decision?7:56Well, the Fed decision, according to the7:58latest retail uh results here,8:00especially the last 24 hours, we got a8:02pretty strong economic read on the PMI.8:05And whether you want to trust these8:06economic reads or not, it doesn't really8:08matter. The poly market has made a8:11decision here that there is now almost a8:1370% chance, 64% chance at the time of8:16this recording that we're going to get a8:18rate hike in October. Now, this is a8:21huge deal because of course more rate8:23hikes, more pressure on the bonds market8:26and that led to yields going up across8:29the board with that PMI number and of8:31course overall a lot of stocks8:33struggling but more importantly we also8:35saw bonds start to get hit and it wasn't8:38just interest rates it was risk as well8:40guys. So this means that credit default8:43swaps they're going to be in focus. So8:46there are two ways to look at this one.8:48Okay, we've got some tech improvement.8:49Generally, tech leads us out of pits or8:52leads us out of a market that could be8:54pulling back and we have some bad signs,8:57which is the private equity markets, the8:59bonds markets. But we do have some good9:01signs. And the good signs are that you9:03can see here there's always two ways to9:05look at the story. Duality Research here9:07has put out a great chart. Shows here9:09S&P 500 advanced index. This is the9:11average number of daily advances by a9:135-year period. Now, if we have a look9:15over this 5-year period, we're actually9:18not really at a weakness, a significant9:20long-term weakness of markets. Now, you9:23go to the.com bubble that was like9:25nothing was advancing. It was just9:26literally a couple of stocks, you make a9:28dot and it was going to be worth a9:30billion dollars and then all of a9:31sudden, of course, it collapsed upon9:33itself. So, in the scheme of things,9:35things aren't too bad. The other story9:38is as well is why are we not seeing9:40defensives rally? So, generally9:41speaking, before a crash in markets or9:44when a market actually is distributing9:45into a fall, which it could still be9:47doing, you usually will see an uptick in9:50the likes of an XLP, the likes of an9:53XLU. And you could argue, yeah, but Tom9:55and uh healthcare, you can argue that9:57maybe the staples aren't going up9:59because of the K-wave economy and people10:01just on the bottom of the K really are10:03struggling that much and that's killing10:05the staples and making it a bit of a10:07weird time, but still, we're not seeing10:09a huge pick up there. Another one is how10:12are the markets rallying? Well, as long10:14as this AI capex spend continues and10:17remember this muse thing going on with10:19Meta really has helped the economic10:22system. So basically everyone's excited10:24again now. AMD just hit a trillion over10:27the last session. That is a trillion10:29dollar market cap. They were like 25010:31billion like a year ago. So again people10:33are just going crazy on hardware and10:36people are getting excited about this.10:37So as long as we have capex spend, the10:39economy and the stock market are10:40different things. So in this case, you10:42can see here from top down charts, we've10:44got this really heavy spend in tech10:47which is driving into growth and at the10:49same time sentiment reports. I mean last10:52week, no wonder we got to rally 53% of10:54people going bearish, the rest neutral10:56and barely any bulls left. The markets10:58are going to try to squeeze that out.11:00That's what they've done. But that11:01doesn't dictate that we're not still in11:03a kangaroo market and we're not going11:05into theoretically the worst month of a11:08midterm year, which is October.11:10Remember, we're not in October yet.11:12We're still what, six, seven days away11:13from that. Let's now talk about Bitcoin,11:15the other elephant in the room. Now,11:16Bitcoin's been a lot stronger. And I've11:18got to say, I've really enjoyed this11:20chart, and I know a lot of you are like,11:21"What the hell are you talking about?11:23You enjoy a chart so much." I just love11:25it because it really is a lot of great11:28theories coming together. Uh, it's also11:29a lot of great psychology coming11:31together and it shows like how the11:33market works and I think we've really11:35gone over that over the last month. No11:37fear, no FOMO, just good analysis and11:40that's that price action, that data and11:41that flow analysis. Have a look here at11:43the last couple of days of flow. No11:45wonder Bitcoin's been doing so well.11:48Take a look at these flows coming11:49through according to the latest ETF11:51data. Wow, Farside investors here. Great11:54info. Uh, it's been very, very strong.11:56And that again helps to solidify that11:58this was a breakout with real flow12:01behind it. Altcoin investors still12:03heavily in the red. Maybe some of these12:05guys will unfortunately never come back.12:07But um you can see here that the old12:10Bitcoin rally has caused almost what is12:13it? What's that sitting at? Probably 6012:1570% of Bitcoiners to be back in the12:17profit. And what happens when they get12:19back in the profit after being scared12:22out? Well, they start to sell into that12:25profit. This latest data here from Glass12:27Node over at Glass Node on X kind of12:30shows that information. I think this is12:31a classic case of why I always say don't12:33buy the dip by the V because what12:35happens is is such a classic for retail12:39investors to do. Notice they all sit12:41down here, they panic sell and then it12:44rallies back to the break even level or12:46a technical level and then they all12:49close. And you can see this by the12:50highlighted areas. And it's just funny12:52how people do this time and time and12:54time and time and time and time again12:56and why, you know, behavioral finance is12:59such an important aspect of the markets.13:01So, the biggest question of all becomes,13:04is this little rally here that's taking13:06the S&P and the kind of cues to all-time13:09highs or getting close to those levels.13:12Is this a false break? Is this13:13ultimately going to be a kangaroo style13:16market? and potentially RSP that is the13:19equal weighted market might hold some13:21keys here for this we'll talk about13:23actually came from one of our members in13:25the market masters club which is our13:27private community links in the13:29description down below if you want to13:30join us there guys it's great to find13:32like-minded individuals you're smart you13:34know I know you are and um there's many13:36many smart individuals in the markets13:38and from where you come around the world13:39I got to say it's amazing we've got13:41Europeans we've got people from Asia13:43we've got people from Australia with13:44kangaroos we've got of course people,13:46Canada, US, you know, Mexico, it doesn't13:49matter where you are in the world, you13:50all love one thing and that's these13:52markets and it's awesome. Uh, this chart13:54here from Blue Curie continues to be13:56something I look at because, you know, I13:58am aware that October is a nasty month14:00and if it is going to distribute14:02kangaroo style so far, we've been doing14:05what you would expect in a 1970s market,14:07but also what you'd expect in a midterm14:09in some ways and that's wo, we're all14:11over the place. If you're interested in14:13finding out a little bit more just for14:14on the free side, why not uh join our14:17newsletter. One chart, one story, one14:18market lesson. Remember, two factor14:20authentification guys, make sure to14:22click that email so you get it. Don't14:24send me an email saying, "Tom, I don't14:25get your newsletter." Just click the14:28button so that you actually do receive14:30it. But it's awesome to be there. You14:31got nothing to lose. Get the free14:32newsletter. Why not? All right, let's14:34jump into the charts here. Take a look14:36at what matters right now because this14:39Brett story is everywhere. And I think14:41people misconstrue breadth. I see14:43negative breadth or hugely bad like bad14:46breadth that gets down to these points14:48as potentially opportunity. And what I14:50look at it as is a giant oscillator. Why14:53wouldn't we look at it as a giant14:54oscillator? So while everyone else is14:55panicking about breadth, we have to be14:57starting to say, well, what's it14:58actually doing to price action? And I'll14:59admit, I'll be the first to admit this15:01is a weird time. Like you know, you've15:03got a market that's basically not down15:05and the breadth is in the toilet. Like15:06this thing is terrible. It's under 25%15:09of stocks above the 20-day, you know,15:11it's pretty weak. The 50 28.82 usually15:15that I like to get down to 20, but these15:17are symbolic usually of a 7 to 10%15:19pullback. So, it just shows that tech is15:21holding up and really if it falls, wow,15:24we're in trouble. But at the moment,15:25it's just become resilient, especially15:28over the last month. Take a look here at15:29the New York Stock Exchange. More stocks15:31dropping again than rallying. And as we15:34mentioned, a lot of this might come back15:36to the equal weighted market. So, one of15:38the users in our community, uh, shout15:41out to you CLM, you've come up with a15:43good idea and I thought I had a look15:44over this and I thought, you know what,15:45it kind of makes some sense. So, we've15:46seen this happen a few times. This is15:48RSP to spy. Basically, it's just saying15:50equal weighted market to the S&P and15:53it's in the dirt. Like, you can see15:54these these levels here. And previous15:56times we've seen this when we've been15:58down this level, you might notice the16:00market is in a period of kangaroo16:04consolidation and actually it turned16:06into be a little bit more of a16:08distribution into sometimes even a drop16:10to a low. Remember this is such a huge16:12rally that it doesn't look like it's16:14there. But generally speaking, it's kind16:16of showing us that yes, it's still a16:18stock selection market, a sector16:20selection market, and that when you're16:22at these levels, we could be still in16:25all over the place for the S&P. So, I16:28don't know if the indices look that16:29great, more so that the particular16:32stocks look better. And I think it's16:33such an important time for markets to to16:35recognize that. Let's talk about the16:37elephant in the room, bonds, bonds,16:39bonds. I mean, it is one of our three16:41pillars of this year. We are terrified16:44of the bonds if they go bad. And when16:45they push down underneath our little16:48Bessant level that we found the other16:50day, that is the level where basically16:52the old Treasury started to freak out.16:54That is a cause for h what exactly is16:58going on. Now, I've seen all sorts of17:00theories on this one, and of course, we17:02have our own theory on bonds, but17:04treasuries are dropping to levels we17:07haven't seen since 2004. they cause a17:10lot of panic and you've got to ask17:11yourself the question why is this17:13happening and is it actually you know17:16the treasuries going bankrupt or17:18something like that it's always the17:19question I have I always answer that is17:21how could you expect the US treasury is17:23going to go bankrupt when there are so17:25many worse economies out there remember17:27the US is the biggest the best economy17:29how are you going to go bankrupt in that17:30first when there's some other basket17:32cases around and I'm not going to name17:34names but let's just say they exist and17:37there are issues out there now what is17:39happening is yields are up. So you have17:40to expect treasury face value to come17:42down and the key is really is it risk17:46that's becoming the concern. Now do I17:48think the Treasury is going to blink? I17:50think yes. At some point they're going17:51to blink and that's going to create a17:53massive opportunity dynamic. But for now17:56it's pressuring down. We're going to17:57look at the COT report soon on Treasury.17:59So look forward to that on the weekend18:01video. Sub sub sub for that guys. It's18:04going to be a huge deal. But um yeah,18:06big big stuff here. Now, US treasuries,18:09they're pushing and this is causing18:12yield or yields are pushing higher. And18:14take a look at this 10-year. You know,18:15we're at 5.11. More importantly, we want18:18to look at that 30 and it's coming back18:20up to the fear of the unknown. Now,18:22traditionally, when the old bonds market18:25or the yields kind of push into the fear18:26of the unknown, you start to get18:28volatility usually towards the downside18:31on stocks. So, look, it's dull. It's18:34making a series of higher highs and18:35higher lows. I wouldn't want to be18:37starting to say that's the bottom for18:38treasuries. That's a guess, guys. We18:41don't like guesses. Um instead, we want18:43to see structure in markets, a process.18:46If you don't have a process, you're mad.18:48So, you know, in this case, like what's18:50it doing? It's going up higher highs,18:52high lows. How could you say that is the18:54end for inflation or for yields? So,18:57this is all a concern. And what's18:59happening is it's starting to pressure19:01the old junk markets. So, if we have a19:03look here at the old junk bonds, take a19:05look here at high yield junk. It just19:07dropped again. Now, I've got my own way19:09of reading this. I'm not actually seeing19:10an extreme level of risk still. So, I19:13know you look at a chart like this, the19:15untrained eye is going to say, "Wa,19:17bonds are freaking out, Tom." They're19:19actually not freaking out. And we're not19:22seeing like necessarily full concern19:24across the board. But what we do need to19:26do now is recheck the credit default19:29swaps. That is what is going on in terms19:32of these big tech businesses and AI cuz19:34remember they're borrowing more than19:35ever before at high interest rates19:37moving forward than ever before. And19:39you've got to think what's going to go19:41up with IWM.19:43Is there zombie businesses there, guys?19:46What do you think? Are there crappy19:48businesses there? Yes, of course there19:51are. There have been for years. So, you19:53know, no one is considering this bond19:56debt yet. and private equity as we saw19:58in the first video uh first slide of20:00today. I mean it look at it is falling20:02off a cliff. I mean it's it's horrible.20:05So basically there is something going on20:07like you can see it the banks I wrote20:10about this in our newsletter what a20:11month and a half ago if you've been20:12watching maybe it was 2 months ago and20:14we already started to see the weakness20:16coming into these KR you know20:18[clears throat] this is the regional20:19look at them look at them they're20:21falling off they're falling off guys and20:23usually during higher interest rate20:25environments the banks make more money20:27but what's happening here is there's20:29competition to the banks coming in and20:30there's all sorts of other things so20:32they have to be considered but like any20:34macroy style read. It doesn't matter20:37till it matters. And that is the key to20:40markets. It doesn't matter till it20:42matters. And that's why sometimes you20:44hear someone, you think, damn, they're20:46smart. Damn, they're big brain, big IQ,20:48high IQ individual, yet they'll be wrong20:50for like four years in a row. So, it's20:52all about, you know, have we started to20:54see the market freak out on this stuff20:56yet? And I'm watching particularly home20:59construction. You know, I want to know21:00what's going on with home construction.21:02Remember this? There's another chart21:03that we have in today's video. Uh,21:06Carvana, I'm watching Carvana. Look at21:08this hideous looking head and shoulders.21:09If that falls through, is that finally21:12the breaking of the market system? You21:14got to think a little bit outside the21:15box here. If that isn't happening, is21:17the market really freaking out? Well,21:19let's look at the backbone of what has21:21been the strength in markets, tech. And21:24you might notice today, even though the21:25market's down a little bit, the old21:27Cosby, these hardware stocks, AMDs and21:30stuff of the world, they're still21:32rallying or coming into resistance. So,21:34we're still seeing tech holding above.21:37We're still seeing Magnificent 7 holding21:39above its closure for this week so far.21:42If it can hold those levels, then you've21:44got like the most important sector in21:46the market technically holding up. We're21:48still seeing the doctor the doctor21:50copper kind of floating through which21:52shows capex spend. So remember to really21:55usually dump a market properly we need21:58earnings to fall off. I mean if earnings22:00isn't going to fall off then it's very22:02difficult for the markets. If bonds22:03don't freak out then it's very difficult22:05for the markets to fall off. So we22:06haven't quite seen that yet. Let's go to22:08some elephants in the room. Old gold. Oh22:11poor gold. You know I am a bit of a fan.22:13You know this. But at the same time22:15you've got to say that's support. be22:17nice to see gold hold here because I've22:20been, you know, talking about this and22:21and trying to get been willing it above22:244,400, but it hasn't happened yet. But,22:26you know, this is the area, you know, we22:28fall under here. We've got pressure down22:30to potentially 3,900. Uh, we get above22:33again. Well, that could be a nice little22:34basing pattern into strength. And the22:37same thing is happening here in silver.22:38Silver holding up better cuz it's coming22:41along with copper, but copper's still22:42doing okay. And there's no breakout here22:45in silver or gold last 24 hours.22:48Remember gold is a currency. We had roll22:50contracts on oil. People were going nuts22:52about this roll contract. I don't know22:54why, but um usually yeah, people go22:56crazy about Yeah. I don't know. Roll22:59contracts like they've happened all the23:00time. Like I'm not sure why everyone23:01always makes a big deal about them, but23:03in general, US oil, it hit that23:06resistance. It's been technical. It's23:08found a little bit of structure. You can23:10see the role here on Brent. In general,23:12I always go with, you know, what are we23:14looking at? We're looking at a market23:16that rallied ahead of the news. The news23:19became reality and then of course now23:21the market pulls back and people are23:23left scratching their heads. It's the23:25thing that happens. Now, if we keep23:26getting inflation running away, unless23:28we've got destruction, so that means an23:31economy that's starting to weaken, guys.23:33Remember, we've got inflation right now.23:35We want growth, not weakening. If we23:38have a weakening economy, well, then we23:40could be over for energy. But for now, I23:42think energy is still an okay market. I23:44mean, look at diesel here. It's still23:47very resilient, very strong here. And23:49that's showing us again, unfortunately,23:52what's going to be pushing further down,23:54which is these likes of the McDonald's23:56light. Look at this thing. Oh, no.23:58McDonald's just took a low out, guys.24:00Like, maybe you don't like McDonald's. I24:03tell you what, these, if you ever come24:04to Australia, we we literally have the24:06slang. You want to go to Mackers?24:09Mackers, mate. Mackers. What do you24:10think? Mackers run. Mackers run.24:12Literally, if you've ever been to24:13Australia, they're everywhere. I mean,24:16America, you knew how to make money in24:17Australia. You just opened a McDonald's24:19on every corner and you're just making24:20money off hand over fist. But I know24:22outside maybe of Australia, maybe it's24:24not so popular, but you wouldn't think24:26it's struggling here. They even give you24:28World of Warcraft codes here, I've24:30heard. Uh, so let's have a look here at24:32McDonald's. It's come into the support24:34line. You're seeing a little bit of a24:35bounce. It's still though, jeez, that is24:37absolutely a fall from grace. And24:39remember, this is famously one of the24:41stocks that held up in the global24:42financial crisis. So, take a look at the24:45falloff here. 31%. You may say it's24:47management, something else, but it's not24:49just here. It's in the likes, as we24:51mentioned, of Nike. It's in the likes of24:53a Domino's Pizza. And it's it's a change24:56in the air, but look at this thing.24:57Whoa. You know, pretty brutal stuff. Why25:01is it that chart?25:03It's frozen. That's the Australian25:05internet. Anyway, you get the point.25:06Let's now have a look at the cues. And25:09we are at the resistance of the highs.25:11So, no surprise that we might pull back25:14at around this point. Some things that I25:16always like to do with these areas, I25:17like to put little VWAP on the bottom.25:19Why? Because if the markets pull back25:21into the VWAP, sometimes you see little25:23bounce at those points. The market25:25itself though, breadth terrible, but25:27still the market areas that matter,25:29usually the tech are still picking up.25:31We've seen call resistance be too much25:33for the S&P as it went positive gamma25:36and then all the calls moved to 7,800.25:39That's why the market's kind of stopping25:40there. Again, I kind of went and uh put25:44in some analysis here and we're getting25:46close to that point where if it's going25:48to hold, I'd like to see it hold over25:50this next 24 hours kind of around this25:52area. So, critical zone here for the25:55markets and US 500 at a very important25:58point. Now, if we go back there for a25:59second, you'll see put support sitting26:01at around 7625.26:04Don't actually know why it's there, but26:05it's at 7625 for the options and the old26:09puts, of course, 7,500. So, look, the26:11markets again not falling off a cliff.26:13When we go to IBIT and have a look at26:16the Bitcoin markets, a little bit of26:17profit taking has happened, but they're26:19still above the previous kind of point.26:22And I went through and had a look at a26:24bunch of different uh cryptos.26:27And in general, they all look relatively26:29okay. So, if we have a look here at26:31Bitcoin, it's not quite at that 93 94K26:35kind of area of resistance. And26:37Ethereum, get rid of whatever that is,26:40uh, is still kind of dull and rallying26:42up. Salana is kind of similar. You know,26:44these coins, they have closed new highs.26:47It's not unusual to see some profit26:49takers after a squeeze like that, but26:51I'd like to see higher highs and higher26:53lows come through for the coins. It26:55doesn't seem like they're at technical26:56levels. So maybe it's pullbacks into26:58rallies, maybe it was a false break. I27:00mean, it's possible, but in this case,27:03it's higher highs and higher lows coming27:05through onto the charts. For the week27:07ahead, guys, the main thing is to focus27:09on, of course, what is going on with27:11this Z um US visit stuff. And of course,27:14one chart, one story, one market lesson27:16if you want to find out more about our27:17newsletter. To summarize though, I think27:19it's a market that's being driven by27:21tech, which is kind of really just27:23trying to find height into IPOs. It's27:26still earnings, earnings, earnings. And27:27there's no doubt there was a little bit27:29of risk starting to come back into27:30bonds. Credit default swaps. We'll be27:34doing a deep dive soon on that. Thank27:35you so much, guys. You have a fantastic27:37session. Bye for now.
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