Transcript of Are Central Banks Starting To Panic? (SP500, Nasdaq, Bitcoin, Gold)
FX Evolution - Trading Academy
0:00Central banks around the world could be0:02starting to panic with massive moves0:04with the Japanese yen over the last 240:06hours brought about by a yield spike0:09over the last couple of weeks. With the0:11Federal Reserve coming out and maybe0:13saying that they won't rate hike in0:15September, this muddies the waters even0:17more. And with some good, some bad, and0:20some ugly, where should you as a trader0:22and investor be looking right now? Even0:25Bitcoin seems to be doing something as0:28well with reports coming in of a short0:30squeeze over the last 24 hours0:32liquidating a major position. Guys, if0:35you like stocks, commodities, and0:36cryptos, don't go anywhere. We've got a0:38lot to talk about in today's video. See0:41you soon.0:48Well, welcome back to one of the largest0:49daily shows on the planet, thanks to you0:51guys out there when it comes to markets.0:53Today we're discussing the latest in the0:54macro Wall Street flows and a couple of0:57big transactions that came through,0:59including some big option squeezes that1:01occurred over the last 24 hours. Hi, my1:03name's Thomas. I've been in markets for1:04over 17 years. And on this show, we do1:07things a little bit differently,1:08bringing Wall Street's traps, and of1:11course, behavioral psychology into the1:13markets with price action, data, and1:15flows. If that's something that1:17interests you, then remember to1:18subscribe and smash that bell icon down1:20below. So, let's start today's video by1:23discussing some of the major topics that1:25been going around, the sentiment out1:27there, the data, the flows, and of1:28course, the key charts later on. We'll1:30start here with one of our favorite1:32things to do, which is to take a look at1:34the social ARB. That is, are people1:36searching for terms or have they lost1:39complete and utter faith in something?1:41We've seen this happen in gold just into1:43January with everyone going ballistic.1:45And of course, we've seen this happen1:47several times in markets over the last1:49years. And I always like to look at it1:52because last year we of course saw1:54basically the rise of AI bubble as a1:57search term late last year and then we1:59saw it rise again into the May highs as2:03everybody freaked out about where we2:06were heading in terms of hardware2:07stocks. Since then though it's created2:09and fallen off a cliff. So I have a2:11question for you in the community. Do2:12you think we've just seen the peak term2:15of AI bubble? And it's not so much to2:17say that AI is good or bad. I think it's2:20the te future technology just like the2:22rail was just like electricity is just2:24like of course tele telecommunications2:26and mobiles were as well that doesn't2:28mean it doesn't have growing pains and2:30remember the money spent is the real2:32question here can the returns happen and2:35there's probably no question at all that2:36some of the LLMs have been improving2:39quite a lot recently as well let us know2:41your opinions we got a lot of software2:42engineers do you think AI has become2:45even better over the last 2 months or do2:47you think it's getting towards AI I slop2:50always interested. I will be reading2:51these comments for the special weekend2:53edition coming this long weekend. And2:55yes, just a reminder, do remember2:57markets will be closed on Monday next3:00week. So you get a couple of extra days3:03to wait and see what happens on these3:04markets. Now let's start with the3:06sentiment surveys though because guys,3:08these things are wild. What is going on3:10with people's opinions? Have a look at3:12the latest from the Aouble sentiment3:14surveys. We shared this over on X. links3:17in the description down below if you3:18want to follow us over there. And I am3:20always surprised how fast people's3:22sentiment shifts in 2026. 44.4%3:26people bearish just a week ago. Now only3:2937.6%3:30with almost a 40% read on bullish, which3:33is actually getting pretty high. One3:35year bullish read, of course, the3:37maximum we've had is 49.5. But still a3:40lot less people kind of sitting on the3:42on the post these last two weeks. More3:45people were bearish. Now they've all3:46turned bullish and that's a flip that3:49you don't see very often. Couple of news3:51stories coming through today. We do3:53share these before the video so if you3:54ever want them make sure to follow again3:56down below. But the big one was I think3:59from private equity. According to4:00Blackstone themselves they just came out4:03and said that they had over 5% which is4:07their usual liquidation and repurchase4:10program which was capped and they've got4:12too many people trying to get out. So,4:14they're not saying that that's a4:15liquidity problem. Of course, they're4:17making a big deal about that. But at the4:18same time, yes, a lot of these were4:21actually rollovers from, if you4:22remember, the last period where people4:25got locked out and unfortunately weren't4:27being able to liquidate and get their4:29money back. Now, why is this important?4:31Well, I think it's a useful reminder of4:33the difference between owning an asset4:35and being able to exit that asset.4:37Exactly. I want to give you a quick4:39story here. Rewind. 2020 the COVID4:43crisis and I still remember watching4:46gold and anyone else that was and it was4:48skipping around $15 an ounce in bid ask4:51that is literally there was no liquidity4:53in between markets can become illquid4:56even for the most liquid assets so4:58you've always got to keep yourself in5:00the mindset of what am I in what are the5:03risks and just remember it's all about5:05recognizing all of those things couple5:08other stories happening Lulu had a5:09pretty bad turn. Of course, Michael Bur5:12being famously in that. He's described5:13Lululemon as the trickster in his5:16portfolio. Yeah, it's not doing too well5:18at the moment, is it old Lulu? And5:20September Fed meeting moving down to5:2350/50 odds now of a hike with probably5:26the chances of no hike, at least in my5:28opinion. But yeah, we'll see. The market5:30does its major things. And of course,5:32then there's the Tesla story with the5:34autonomous vehicles. But let's have a5:35look. If we were to see, and I repeat5:38that, if we were to see a Fed rate hike,5:41it's been a while since one of those has5:43come through. So, Blue Kurdic put5:45together some good results here and sh5:47said that if you get a Fed rate hike,5:49that is the first one in a while, often5:52markets will react kind of negatively to5:54this, particularly over the 3 months5:56with only, and it's a really crazy stat5:58when you think about it, 16.7% of the6:00time markets actually being bullish over6:03that period. Now, you could argue this6:05both ways because of course we have been6:07in a rate hiking period, but it is6:10important to note that if we do get a6:12rate hike, yeah, there could be some6:14problems on the line, at least if6:16history has anything to go by. Now,6:18what's this leading into? Well, the6:20midterm election year, guys, and of6:22course, the next two months, September,6:24historically one of the worst months of6:25the year, October, traditionally a6:27horror show in midterms, and an S&P6:30advanced decline line that's been6:32downgrading. Now, the last 24 hours6:33certainly helped because people thought,6:35"Oh, we aren't going to get a rate6:36hike." So, the markets went up, but6:38we're still in the tight range space.6:41So, although ahead of non-farm payrolls,6:43that's the jobs numbers for anyone6:45that's not aware, that are coming out6:46this Friday. Although markets are just6:49kind of staying around range, maybe this6:51will be a catalyst into the long weekend6:53to really start to pick some direction6:55for the short term. And do remember6:57there's no freak out yet in the bonds,7:00but there is a central bank worry7:02because we've seen the treasuries. We've7:04seen Bank of Japan coming out already.7:07And we do know that they're having to do7:10things that they don't necessarily want7:12to do to try to stop this inflation7:15that's happening. And diesel price7:17doesn't seem to be slowing just yet. I7:19heard, by the way, and this may be true.7:21Maybe you guys can verify it in Cali,7:23that diesel is over 750 a gallon. If7:26that's true, let me know in the comments7:27down below. Pretty high numbers. And7:29also, let me know around the US because7:31it's all over the place from what I'm7:33reading. Percentage of stocks above the7:3520 DMA. Now, we talked about this less7:37than 40% of stocks were above the 20.7:40Usually, you see this with a pretty7:42decent pullback, not like a negative 17:44to 2%. So again, it just shows there's a7:47lot of abundance in this market. That is7:49opportunities, but there's also a huge7:52amount of stuff going on underneath the7:54hood with rotation. S&P 500, Ford P.7:58This one here from Duality Research is7:59always good. It's a middle ground. So8:01that is, is the market expensive based8:03on historical? Not really. Is it cheap?8:06Not really. So it's kind of in the8:08middle. And that means that again it's a8:10stock pickers and usually sector8:11selection style market because it's8:14neither super cheap or super expensive8:16at this stage based on that average8:18alone. And remember it's just one8:19fundamental read. It's not enough. And8:21in fact PE is becoming worse as we head8:25into what I believe and many of you out8:27there do as well a later cycle style8:29market a more defensive market that8:32tends to go through rotations. Let's8:34have a look at September when August8:36never closed below. This one from Blue8:38Kurdic again just kind of confirms that8:40idea of potentially what seasonals do8:42which is maybe a kangaroo style market8:45that is up down up down and all around.8:48And as we know the reason why the Bank8:50of Japan had to come in guys over the8:52last couple of sessions and say a few8:54things is because the 2-year bonds are8:57way higher than even where they are8:58right here at the picture that I took9:00here because yeah it's it's becoming a9:03problem. Clearly there's an issue in9:05Japan and this is of course impacting9:07treasuries in particular. Bank of Japan9:09or at least Japanese being the largest9:12holder of course treasury bonds or one9:15of the largest holders and this leading9:17into concerns over the carry trade9:19dying. If that happens we could have a9:21liquidity crisis as AI businesses are9:24actually taking liquidity from9:25treasuries which if you told me 2 39:28years ago I'd say yeah probably not.9:29That's probably not going to happen. But9:31this is why you expect the unexpected9:33sometimes in markets. The number one9:35transaction, we're basically trading9:37back around that level that we were for9:39the number one for the triple Q's.9:41Remember number ones, they're pretty9:42important. We want to see how the market9:44reacts around these and maybe the jobs9:46numbers will tell us more. And volume9:48lead is also putting out a great report9:50here on XLI over the last 24 hours9:52showing the industrials having a fairly9:55large number seven darkpool. That is a9:57large transaction between two major10:00entities or maybe one major entity with10:02a whole bunch of others that's reported10:04at the end of the day. You usually can't10:05see these ones. Bitcoin ETF flow time.10:08Now, we've already been talking about10:10how the last couple of weeks have been10:12exceptional on the flows. There's been a10:15couple of negative days, but really just10:17across the board positive, positive,10:19positive, positive with a bunch of10:20thrust as well. That's a great sign for10:23Bitcoin. Well, somebody according to the10:25latest uh information went against this.10:28It was like $58 million or something10:30liquidated. Of that, a huge portion was10:32actually just one transaction. So, it10:35just goes to show, you know, fighting10:37the trend sometimes, even if it's a10:38shorterterm trend, can be a bit brutal.10:41And the good news, and we'll look at10:42this later on for Bitcoin, is that10:44volume is up, pressure is being put on10:46resistance, and this has remained above10:50the daily 200. So, remember Paul Tudtor10:53Jones once said, "Nothing good happens10:55underneath the daily 200." Well, I tend10:57to agree with you on this one, Paul,10:58because that was horrible on Bitcoin,11:00but it's above. Yippee. Yippee. Yeah,11:04it's an improvement anyway. So, early11:06days, resistance coming up. If it does11:09manage to close above resistance, the11:10question technical analysts will be11:12asking themselves is, can we make it to11:14the next level of supply, the next level11:16of equilibrium potentially in markets?11:19Guys, there's also a few other things11:21that have been going on. We've seen a11:22flip-flop on markets between software11:25and gold and energy, but really what's11:28been tending to occur is we've just had11:31kangaroo that is up down all around on11:34semiconductors and actually much to do11:36about nothing. It's really just been a11:38little bit of healthcare, little bit of11:40agriculture, mostly oil and a little bit11:43of gold and software the last couple of11:45weeks. So just remember it's sector11:47selection, stock selection. Even within11:49these sectors, there's better stocks11:51that have been doing well. And and11:52that's the abundance coming through. And11:54why is this? Well, if you're believer of11:57the 1970s being closely correlated to12:00the current today's markets, then it's12:03what happened in the past anyway, but12:04it's only one read, so it's not enough12:06data to go off by itself. Still12:08interesting times. If you're interested12:10in finding out a little bit more about12:11what we do over at FXE Trading Academy,12:13check us out in the links in the12:14description down below. And make sure to12:16sign up for some of our free resources12:17as well. It's totally free. Might as12:19well go check it out and sign up to12:21those guys. Let's have a look here at12:24OWL for a moment. So, of course, we saw12:28the Blackstone report, but at the same12:30time, we've also seen price action12:33improvement in recent times. blew our12:36capital of course coming under pressure12:38last year in the private equity markets12:40markets fell markets actually recovered12:42recently but at the moment they're12:44chopping around this 50 weekly moving12:46average so it be interesting to see with12:48these new reports coming out how these12:50markets track and I always like to see12:53it because private equity is very12:56important component of the overall cycle12:58or cyclical markets midcaps they've13:01recovered off that level of demand and13:04it really was kind of like almost a do13:05or die for markets over the last couple13:07of sessions. Still is because if they13:10lose some of these key levels, then we13:12could be moving towards the big net put13:14expiration zones and that might pull us13:17down a few more percentage points before13:19we really find out whether the horror13:21show of October could come true for a13:23midterm election year. US 10 years, they13:26did fall a little bit after we saw, of13:28course, comments from the governor and13:31the Fed. And this is a big change13:33because it was just like 60s something%13:35chance of a Fed hike in September. Now13:38it's down to a coin flip. You know,13:40there's not not uh probably not a good13:43chance, I think. But again, coin flip is13:45what the market thinks. Junk bonds time.13:48Have we been seeing weakness in bonds?13:50Well, you might think yes, but then13:52remember if you look at junk and we take13:54out some interest rates into it, what13:57you're going to end up if it ever does13:58load, kangaroo internet, guys. Look at14:01this. That's what you deal with when14:03you're in Australia. Kangaroo Internet.14:05Yep. It's not going to load. [laughter]14:07We probably lost it. It's the MBN. But14:09that doesn't really matter. The main14:11thing is if we took it out, you'll14:12notice that with junk bonds, there's not14:15too much14:17overall risk being allocated. It seems14:20to be just moving with the yields more14:22than the actual risk of the bonds14:24itself. Speaking of which, this is14:26complacency. Look at this. the BOFA high14:29yield index option adjusted spread. Last14:31time we saw this 97 2007 before the14:34global financial crisis. We also saw it14:36in Feb before the tariffs and now we14:39have it here into September before the14:41midterms.14:42No one is considering risk it seems even14:45though credit default swaps have been14:46going up. A very interesting chart.14:48We're certainly watching that one14:49closely. U AAL doesn't matter which14:52airline company we're looking at at the14:54moment. They're all falling down. Why?14:56Well, of course, it's energy cost. Crack14:58diesel. It's very expensive. You guys15:01know better than Well, actually in15:03Australia, it's expensive, too, which is15:04the country I'm in. But yeah, this is15:07going to impact. And actually, just in15:08our community over at the Market Masters15:10Club, people have been sharing an image15:12of maybe one of their local restaurants.15:14Are you guys seeing this on the ground?15:16They've literally got a sign out the15:17front saying, "Sorry guys, we've just15:19had to up prices as emergency because15:21we're getting smoked at the food cost,15:23at the petrol cost, at everything." So15:25the inputs are going crazy. They're15:27having to pass that on again. And it's15:29the real stuff happening over the last15:32couple of months. And this is a problem15:34because of course it's putting a lot of15:35pressure on the K-shaped economy. We've15:37already seen McDonald's suffering from15:39the K-shaped economy. So will it spill15:41over? Good way of looking at spillage is15:44going to be XLY XLP. That is consumer15:47discretionary versus staples still15:49holding above the support. So again, not15:51really a concern just yet. Tesla15:53meanwhile managed to do a couple of15:55things. Managed to fill the gap. Uh15:57there's a gap around here if you go to15:58the smaller time frames, but of course16:00I've got Kangaroo Internet, so it's16:02dropped out. And the call resistance is16:04still at 400. So effectively, this level16:06here is a critical zone for markets. If16:10we get to the 400, that's going to be16:12one of those 100 levels. You guys know16:14with Tesla, it loves to trade vibes and16:17it loves to trade option zones. So 40016:20interesting. At the moment, we're kind16:22of stuck in this range. Let's go over to16:24semiconductors for a moment. Wow. Just a16:26sitting there dogey. It came down to the16:28puts. It's rallied. It's sitting. It is16:31absolutely paint drying. And that's a16:33far cry from where we used to be with16:34semis. Doesn't mean it's over. You don't16:36know that. I don't tend to like markets16:39after they fall as much as they did. All16:41eyes go onto it. Everyone thinks buy the16:43dip, man. Buy the dip. And they all16:44dance around. But the problem is is that16:47that's when the market becomes the most16:48boring. Oh, gold. uh just in January16:51what happened there. So it is a thing.16:54It is an observation in charts. Nvidia16:56time pretty decent on Nvidia. It's16:58actually been improving versus semis.17:00We'll talk about it more on the you on17:02the YouTube video for the weekend. So17:04sub for that guys. And it's going to be17:06pretty incredible because if we do get a17:08weekly close like this, could we be17:10looking at close to the alltime high for17:12weekly closures? It's improved versus17:15semis. Is the king back? That is the17:17question. I did see that new magazine17:19cover as well on on one of the17:20magazines. If you haven't seen it, my17:22goodness, maybe we'll share it on the17:23weekend [laughter] video. It literally17:26says the it's like the wizard of Silicon17:29Valley or something. [laughter] So, it's17:32one of those ones whenever you see it on17:33the magazine covers you get a little bit17:35scared. So, we'll talk about it. But17:37yeah, that is there. What about Chinese17:40markets? Looks like we've got sideways17:42at this stage. We've still got what we17:44call a pit. So, there's a pullback in17:46time. The markets are still underneath17:50the previous resistances. So, good devil17:52of demand. A little bit of an undercut.17:54Nice rally thrust here today so far. Up17:57about 2.44%.17:58But still more to go to get through the18:00resistance. Now, let's talk metals.18:03Metals, metals, metals. Gold stocks18:06versus gold. A decade plus long base.18:10Will it close above? It's a very18:13critical resistance. Of course, next18:15levels could be about 0.03 in terms of18:18ratio. But yeah, interesting cuz gold18:20stocks used to do really well versus18:22gold. They haven't for a long time as18:24you can see there. So h now let's talk18:27about gold. Came off the anchored VWAP,18:29took the higher high here, which is not18:32necessarily a bad sign and it managed to18:35defend that first level of support. We18:37saw the same level of support show up in18:40a few things. We had a put support on18:42GLD which is options. Now the new put18:45supports seem to be around this 405 kind18:49of level. So they've jumped up a little18:50bit. And silver also coming down to that18:53demand zone and rallying. And a lot of18:55people are saying well could this be you18:56know ultimately some type of inverse18:58head and shoulders you know little small19:01time frame into rally. At the moment19:03there's signs of you know a little bit19:04of recovery here in silver and gold. And19:06more importantly, it's held and remained19:08intact towards series of higher highs19:10and higher lows on the daily and on the19:134hour 2hour swing charts. Let's have a19:16look at MOO. It's holding for its weekly19:18close. Big stuff on Friday. We'll see19:20how all of these inflationbased I guess19:23positions or areas kind of move and19:26crack continues its crack move. That is19:28its higher highs and higher lows. And19:30I've noticed this is everywhere now.19:32everyone's talking about when we first19:34discussed it or even discussed it in our19:37private community, you know, not many19:39people were necessarily discussing it.19:40Now it is everywhere. So, you know, it's19:43interesting how ideas move through the19:46internet. They move quicker, but still19:48it took a while. You know, this this19:50didn't really become a big story till19:51probably in here in August, middle of19:54August. So, it really started the story19:56probably started for us anyway sometime19:58mid July. So, it's been a little while20:00and it's been moving up quite a lot and20:02the inputs still look worrying for that.20:04US 500, yes, it's come back. No, it20:07hasn't gone above 7770 yet. I'll be20:10watching zones like this. I'm sure you20:12will be as well. 7,800 remains where20:14you've got a ton of calls. And then, of20:17course, we've got a lot of puts at 75.20:19So, what are we doing at the moment?20:21It's not necessarily a super negative20:23chart. There's a bit of a pit and only20:25the small time frames look bad. The20:27higher ones still look good. So market20:30remains intact from that aspect. Q's20:33it's boring super paint drying stuff20:35guys. This is the most traded area. We20:37are trading at the most traded zone and20:40you can see here in the options it's20:42compressed on the zero DTE which means20:44the market is waiting for its next move.20:46Call resistance at 7:30 call put support20:48at 700 and kangaroo in between. Probably20:52more of a stock selectors market there20:54from that base. And of course, as we20:56mentioned before, Bitcoin, look at this.20:58Slammed straight into the resistance and21:00it's still sitting around. But yeah, the21:02story is it liquidated some positions21:04that were short. It did have a bit of a21:06thrust. It was quite a large move there.21:08And in general, if we think about it,21:10we're actually in a little bit of21:11positive gamma, although it's not a21:13super massive options market. Well,21:15actually, it's pretty big nowadays. But21:16you can see here, we've got that21:18positive gamma kind of level coming in21:20for IBID. So, can it stick it? Can it21:22get a weekly close? And do we start to21:24see, you know, a real move here on21:26Bitcoin towards the next possibility21:29zones such as the supplies on the left21:31hand side, 93,000 plus. This is going to21:35be, I think, a very important time for21:38something that's been lackluster for21:40what, a year and a bit now. Guys, if you21:42enjoyed today's video, then please21:43remember to subscribe, smash that like21:45button. Do remember 8:30 a.m. New York21:48time. New York time, we have non-farm21:50payrolls. Then we've got CAD and US bank21:54holidays. If I don't see you before the21:56Monday, have a happy or have a good day21:59off, I guess, or good day with the22:00family and friends on Monday. And that22:03does mean, of course, the US markets22:04will be closed. So, there'll be no open22:07show on the Mondays, guys. Thank you so22:09much for watching. We'll see you later.22:11Remember to sub to down below for one of22:13our live sessions as well if you're22:14interested. That'll be in the pins22:16comment. It's a free session, 20 minutes22:18with me next time. I think it's like a22:20week and a half away. So, I'd love to22:21see you there. Spots are limited. Thanks22:23so much, guys. Bye for now. See you.
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