Transcript of YOU Won't Believe What Wall Street Are Doing Now...
FX Evolution - Trading Academy
0:00Something a little unusual is happening0:02on markets and not enough retail traders0:04and investors like you and I are talking0:06about it. With eight days of inflows up0:09in Bitcoin, what exactly is going on at0:11a Wall Street level? And why did the0:13last 24 hours really impact mostly just0:16tech stocks and of course Nvidia? With0:19the news starting to shift Jackson Hole0:22less than 24 hours away and of course a0:25whole bunch of volatility potentially0:26set in these markets, there's a lot to0:28discuss. So, whether you like stocks,0:30commodities or cryptos, it's great to0:32have you here and we've got a lot to0:34unpack in today's video. See you soon.0:41Well, welcome back to one of the largest0:42daily shows on the planet when it comes0:44to markets around the world. My name's0:46Thomas and I've been in markets for over0:4817 years and on this channel we do0:50things a little bit differently. We0:52bring together the macro, Wall Street0:54flows and of course an understanding of0:57what on the institutional side they tend0:59to do that most retail traders1:01potentially make mistakes on. If that's1:03something that interests you, remember1:05to subscribe and smash that like button.1:07It's great to have you here. So guys,1:09let's start off with one of the big1:10stories of last 24 hours and I think1:12it's probably this one here. Kalshi and1:15The Weather Company. Now, we do post1:17about these on our X account, links in1:18the description down below if you want1:20to follow us along there. We do it1:21before these videos are released every1:23day, but this was a pretty big1:25announcement because now you're going to1:26be able to potentially bet on the1:28weather. And although that has some, you1:31know, valid ramifications, of course1:33weather is volatile and people do need1:35to hedge for crops and all sorts of1:37things, it is more of what we're seeing1:39in 20261:41as deregulation continues and Wall1:44Street now finds new products and1:46interesting concepts to create, I guess,1:49more opportunities and also risks for us1:52as traders and investors. What do you1:54guys think about this one? There's so1:56many of them that have happened over the1:59last, I guess, probably 3 to 6 months2:01and it kind of reminds me of that2:03potential just the other day of hearing2:05about an ETF, an exchange-traded fund2:08that could even have hockey teams in it.2:10Yeah, guys, it's a wild west out there,2:13but it does go to show that of course2:15people2:16are, you know, feeling a bit euphoric,2:18they're feeling a little bit gambly and2:20you've got to consider this type of2:22mentality as you go through the rest of2:24the year, especially into the midterms.2:27So, let's begin today's video with a bit2:29of a random stat and it's not so much2:31that this chart here from Blue Car Deck2:33shows us anything that's really happened2:34in the past too much cuz we've only got2:36two reads. It's the unusualness of it2:38all. The tech sector actually gained2:40over 3% thanks in part to Nvidia and of2:43course a software stock we'll talk about2:45later, while all other sectors of the2:48major sectors were actually closing2:50lower on the day. And this is pretty2:52unusual stuff. You do not see that type2:55of thing happen too often, but it has2:57been how 2026 is trading. And do2:59remember in midterm election years, it's3:01perfectly normal to actually see a3:03kangaroo style market. Remember if3:06anyone that's been watching the show for3:08quite some time, we spoke about this in3:09June and July and looked at the average3:12path, which in a midterm year tends to3:14have one kind of pullback, a new rally3:17to potentially new high, tons of3:19kangaroo and then sometimes volatility3:21into the actual midterms itself.3:23Remember September and October often3:25considered some of the weaker months of3:27the year. Will they be again though in3:302026? Always interested to see your3:32comments down below on that one as well,3:33guys. So, let's talk about the next 243:36hours. Now, you're probably familiar3:38with Jackson Hole, but if you're not,3:40this is of course Fed Chair Powell's3:43first Jackson Hole and that changes3:45things a little bit. We have seen in the3:46past the first one actually end up a3:49little bit positive a few days later,3:51which you can see here in this excellent3:52chart. And then often after the Jackson3:55Hole, we actually get quite a lot of3:57chop in market, sometimes even a bit3:59more of a negative side. 3 months later,4:02well, things are pretty positive. In4:04fact, it's like 80, what is that? 4% or4:06something like of that time we're4:08generally bullish. But there have been4:10some pretty large drawdowns when you4:12actually start to look at the 3-month4:14drawdown peak to trough. So, keep in4:16mind you have to expect a little bit of4:18the unexpected moving forward the next4:2124 hours, even into the next few weeks4:23due to seasonality, due to where we are4:25in terms of geopolitics, and of course4:28also that thing that keeps4:30keeps kind of being there, which is the4:32Japanese yields inflation, diesel price,4:35all of these things that we talk about4:36in the channel. You just got to realize4:38that they're there, but at the moment4:40they don't seem to be causing too much4:42of a systemic failure in markets. Of4:44course, we're not seeing bonds4:45absolutely collapse. Now, Volume Leaders4:48does have some excellent data. We can4:49see here that we've just come through4:51the last 24 hours and recognized a4:54couple of new sweeps. Now, these are4:56dark pool sweeps, which for anyone4:57that's not familiar, basically is a4:59large transaction that gets recorded.5:02Generally, a sweep is done at kind of5:04like in urgency, and then at the end of5:06the day we tend to see these. And these5:08are coming through on a few ETFs, TQQQ,5:11SSO, and you can see that they're close5:14to those highs. Now, why is that5:16important? Well, it's the next move5:18that's important. And also the fact that5:20these are relatively large, not huge,5:22relatively large ahead of the Jackson5:24Hole uh speech in less than 24 hours.5:26And of course, Fed Chair Walsh could5:28give us some light on some of the5:31concerns the market's starting to get5:32about interest rates. My kind of guess5:34is the interest rates are just going to5:35be basically sitting around the same5:37price for a while, but people or some5:39people looking for cuts, and some people5:40of course are looking for hikes. And we5:42did see three members dissent, which is5:44pretty unusual. And they actually went5:46with the rate hike option just recently.5:50So, I think it could be an important5:51speech, and I don't really go with5:53predicting it. The big thing we're5:54looking at is how does the market react?5:57Remember we have the saying here on the5:58channel, patience react, don't predict.6:00Nvidia's probably a very good case6:02scenario of that, which we'll look at6:03later on, and why the market is so6:06trappy in 2026. Let's look at this chart6:09here. Software was the big winner of the6:11last 24 hours. IGB up 7%. Why? Well, I6:14think it was a mixture of that6:17Salesforce with of course Anthropic news6:20that we shared over the last 24 hours.6:21Why is that important? Well, it6:23basically is a use case for AI. It's6:25saying, "Oh, software as a service can6:27work with AI." Who would have guessed6:29it, guys? I'm pretty sure you already6:31knew this, but the market works in6:33mysterious ways, and of course what they6:35do, they dumped software as a service,6:37and now they're attaching AI to it, and6:39it's a miracle. So,6:41>> [laughter]6:42>> just like that, you know, common sense6:44comes back in, and you see it in the6:45market. And what they say, common sense6:47isn't so common anymore, even in the6:49world of AI. We also saw energy pick up6:51a little bit over the last 24 hours6:53after the close. So, it kind of got a6:56little bit higher into it, and we also6:58saw solar and clean energy as well7:00starting to pick up. There's that7:01narrative going around of is the real7:04bottleneck in AI actually in the energy.7:07I tend to think it probably will be, but7:09again, it's not really that common story7:12that everybody's freaking out about. It7:14was initially, and then it wasn't, and7:16now it's coming back.7:18Jackson Hole S&P 500 historical returns.7:21How do we usually see it at least in the7:22first couple of days? This chart here7:24from Polycarp just kind of presents it7:26in a different way, and you'll notice7:28that sometimes it can be a little bit7:29negative, but it's not really too7:31conclusive. Please remember that in this7:33case, sometimes we have really excellent7:35stats, sometimes the stats are more of a7:3750/50, and you really want to be looking7:39at the price action more than anything7:41else. Gold seasonality. Now, we've been7:43talking about gold a little bit. It's7:44been picking up. We've seen Bitcoin do7:46eight days in a row, which of positive7:49inflows, which is pretty wild. But, do7:50you remember, this was kind of what you7:52would generally expect into the August7:55month. If we have a look here, July into7:57August, where we start to see gold7:59improve in price action, just so8:01happened to also be a pretty good8:03mid-term year as well, according to8:05Polycarpe and the data out there. And8:07this then continues a little bit into8:09potentially the end of the year, but at8:11the same time, notice something on this.8:13It's very8:15range-bound, very kangaroo, very up and8:17down. And this becomes important when8:19you're thinking about the price action,8:21when you're thinking about the support,8:22the resistances, the supplies on charts,8:25and the market structure in general.8:27Duality Research has put out a little8:29report on ETF flows. We do love the8:31flows, and the flows turned positive as8:34we started to base just a few weeks ago.8:36So, again, the same type of thing, and8:38similar thing here on Bitcoin. This8:40massive thrust that we saw, a huge8:43increase in Bitcoin, just like that,8:45coming off that base, has a lot of8:46people starting to talk about cycle8:48theory again. But, what I'm often8:50interested in, and I'm sure you are as8:51well, is what is actually happening8:53underneath the hood. And look at this.8:55This is every day here. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8.9:00Every day has been big numbers. I mean,9:02this is a huge amount of inflows as all9:05of a sudden the story now goes back onto9:07crypto. And you'll notice on the chart,9:09when you look at Bitcoin, it kind of is9:11doing this. It's basically grinding9:13around that resistance, and we'll talk9:15more on that soon. But, interesting to9:16see those flows.9:18If we are tracking the same way as, I9:20guess, the most correlated market, that9:22would be 1978. I've also seen 2007.9:26Little bit scary if that's true, but9:29we'll take a look at that soon. But,9:301978 is the most closely correlated to9:33current markets. And if that is true, we9:36would actually see a weakness into the9:39next few months into mid terms followed9:41by strength. And strangely enough,9:43that's actually what seasonality would9:44do. Are we saying that's going to9:46happen? You do not know that. But what9:48you are looking at is of course9:50has the market really gone to a new9:52higher high? Has it stayed range bound?9:54Are we starting to see large9:56transactions? All these things come into9:58the fray when you're starting to work9:59out how the street impacts the markets.10:02By the way, if you're interested, I've10:04got a excellent newsletter this week,10:05totally free. Comment and pin comment10:07down below. One chart, one story, one10:10market lesson. I might have two charts10:12this week, but it's excellent and I10:15really think you'll learn something10:16about history on this one because I've10:18got a good write up and there's some10:19parallels that I think you'll be really10:21interested in. So make sure to sign up,10:22totally free, pin comment down below.10:25Now let's get into the good stuff in10:26terms of the charts and what's been10:27happening on the markets. And I think10:29Nvidia was a classic case of one of10:31those sayings that we often have on the10:32channel, which is patience, react, don't10:35predict. Now, why do we say that?10:37Because often times markets will come10:39out and they'll hunt what we call10:41liquidity. So they'll go off in one10:43direction and then suddenly they'll10:45reverse and go off in another direction.10:47And you're left scratching your head.10:48Have you ever had that moment? You're10:49left scratching your head saying, "Damn,10:50what just happened?" And then the10:52classic,10:53"The market's rigged. This is crazy.10:57This is stupid." Unfortunately, that's11:00what Wall Street likes to do, guys. And11:01I've been there. I'll put first to put11:03my hand up. I had this happen to me so11:05many times during the GFC. Very11:07annoying, very, very frustrating. And11:10you're left thinking this is just too11:12hard. Well, the good news is is that if11:15you practice patience, which there isn't11:17much anymore in 2026, and you actually11:20start to recognize on charts different11:22ways of doing things, then that could11:24help you. And I'd actually encourage you11:26to check out the comments down below.11:27For anyone that's ever practiced a bit11:29of patience, waited for that structure,11:31let people know in the community whether11:34it's helped you. We talk about it a lot11:35in our courses over at fxevolution.com,11:37and I like to think of it as speeding up11:40your learning process, you know, I've11:41done tens of thousands of hours. So, you11:44know, why would you want to do tens of11:45thousands of hours when you could learn11:47some of these concepts out there. Let's11:49now take a look here at Nvidia. Now, it11:51dropped and then it rallied and this was11:53actually before the after earnings. And11:56remember the markets are going to 2311:58hours according to Nasdaq very soon. So,12:02that's in December, I think. So, there's12:03going to be a lot of after hours trading12:05and that's kind of cool from the12:06perspective of the earnings calls12:08because that's where most of the12:09movements happen. But, we dropped we we12:12went almost down as low as 200, which12:14you'll notice here is where the puts are12:16and then we rallied. Now, no guesses for12:19where the market ended up hitting12:21resistance, guys. And if you were like,12:23"Oh, I think it could be 230." Well, it12:25just goes to show why you want to be12:27looking at those flows on the option12:29side. Look at that. Slams into the call12:31resistance on both net expirations and12:34the call resistance and hits it and then12:36of course it's waiting to see its next12:38move. Why is that important? Well, just12:40goes to show that markets love moving12:41from an equilibrium to the next12:43equilibrium. And it also goes to show12:45the importance of checking out call12:47options, which we often do here on the12:48channel. Let's now move over to some12:50other things that happened. So, Nvidia12:51kind of catalyzed a few different things12:53with the Anthropic information. We got12:56bug cybersecurity, which has been12:58improving for a while. You can see here13:00that cybersecurity is kind of is13:02starting to see higher highs and higher13:03lows. Is it already movement? Yeah, it's13:06been moving for quite some time, but it13:07did have a pretty big thrust and the13:09main reason was I think this chart here,13:12which was Salesforce. Now, it opened at13:13like 10% up.13:15It ended up 22.5%.13:18That's wild. These are wild moves. But,13:20it you know, it's trying to to to13:22continue to see that rally at this13:24stage. It closed close to its highs. And13:26again, the market coming into this13:28announcement, it wasn't exactly looking13:30weak, was it? It was making a series of13:31higher highs and higher lows. And then,13:34as it tends to do, it moves through a13:36level. Could it be heading towards the13:38next technical resistance? Well, it's13:40not very far away from it now, but I13:42just think that chart really shows, you13:44know, there's abundance out there.13:46There's always more opportunities.13:47There's always more things that are13:48going on. You know, there are also13:51knock-on effects that tend to happen as13:52well. And Adobe, I guess, benefited13:55Adobe has got a earnings on it soon.13:56They've already announced some things, I13:58believe.14:01But the thing about Adobe is, remember14:03that the market's really concerned about14:05the long term. They14:06A stock is not down this much for no14:08reason, guys. And I think it's14:10interesting just to see, though,14:12Microsoft was like the initial catalyst14:14just a few weeks ago. We actually wrote14:15a newsletter piece on it, talking about14:17how Microsoft before that, price action14:20already showed up. Price action was14:22there. Then Microsoft had the good14:23earnings. Then all of a sudden Microsoft14:25was the thing. It moved to the14:26resistance. Then it goes through. It14:28becomes broader. Just think of the14:30semiconductor rally. Nvidia started it14:32all, and then the rest all came in, and14:34suddenly you were talking about random14:36hardware stocks that made memory and and14:39and and hard drives and stuff just last14:416 months. So, things broaden out, and14:44that's why that abundance is so14:45important to do. Let's take a look at14:47Cosbi. It's been up down up down14:49kangaroo. Very similar to the structure14:51you'd expect after a massive drop such14:53as it did do. This is the South Korean14:55market, of course. No closure above a14:57resistance, and at this point still14:59struggling a bit. And semiconductors did15:01gap up after gapping down. Some people15:04will think of that as an island reversal15:06after a pullback to maybe a Fibonacci or15:09even a VWAP. Um but these kind of15:11levels, again, very critical zones here15:13for the hardware. Because if we don't15:15see hardware pick up again, we've lost15:17what I call the backbone of the market,15:19the most important part of the AI run,15:21which is the picks and the shovels.15:23Let's have a look at copper. Copper15:25actually had a good 24 hours managing to15:27rally back up. Weekly close, all15:29important. Let's see if we can get above15:30these dojis this week. But so far metals15:33have done pretty well. They've come into15:35technical resistances. They've kind of15:37sat around these types of levels. And15:39we've also seen gold slam into that15:424700. And it just goes to show you the15:44power of technicals when15:46you have the patience, when you start to15:48think about them correctly. And also15:50even when you're looking at these charts15:52and you're saying, well, well, you know15:54what? What does this even mean? Well, it15:56means that you can sit there and be a15:58little bit more calm. Because when the16:00level gets slammed and it goes at really16:02quickly and then it starts rejecting off16:03that level or starts to go around16:05sideways, remember there's some basic16:07concepts we just talk about here on the16:08channel all the time. The pullback in16:10time. Don't be afraid necessarily of16:13markets just doing this for a while.16:16You know, a lot of people get very16:17afraid and this is actually what chops16:19up many retail investors and traders.16:21It's one of those things you've just got16:22to kind of think about and say, well,16:24what is market structure? It's burning16:25time after a big move. And it's um it's16:28kind of like almost a beautiful thing.16:30Let's now have a look at crypto. Now,16:32Ethereum has been slightly above the16:34previous resistance and at the moment it16:37of course is just going sideways. So, we16:39could think it's a pit. It could also be16:41a resistance. You don't know yet. But16:42the good news is the market coming into16:44this was on the smaller timeframes16:46higher highs and higher lows.16:48So, what does it look like to you? It16:50kind of looks dull to me. So, we've got16:52dull Ethereum and we've got dull Bitcoin16:54close to resistance. Now, interesting16:56Solana, Ethereum, other ones, they're16:58all actually trading slightly above17:00their resistances. But what's happened17:03is the big one, the big Bitcoin,17:04although it's getting inflows, hasn't17:07actually gone above that all important17:0982,000 yet. So, it's still kind of just,17:11you know, slowly, slowly kind of moving17:13up. And I think I think be such an17:15interesting chart to observe and to17:17understand over the next coming days and17:19weeks. So, yeah, important level here17:21for Bitcoin. You can see this got these17:22rejection weeks, which always gets the17:24bears going.17:26And then it's always a good idea to do17:27that. Hey, I don't know. The thing is17:29though, it's all about picking the17:31locations that and building the weight17:33of evidence. So, it's kind of dull at17:35this point coming into the resistance.17:36JP01 Y as well, look at this thing. This17:39yield is getting pretty wild for the17:41Bank of Japan. This could have impacts17:44as well for that Treasury situation. The17:47US 10-year, Jackson Hole, what's going17:49to happen? The core PCE this week, not17:52too good as far as I'm concerned. And as17:54you'll see in diesel in a moment, it's17:56still a problem. This is a problem, but17:57no one seems to care. Treasuries, we did18:00see of course Bessent crack the other18:02day and say, "Oh, guys, we got the we18:04got the billions billions. We'll give18:06you 2 billion on the long-term." But the18:08problem with the long-term is not18:09enough. Like obviously since then18:11there's been rumors of significant money18:14being put against Treasuries. And this18:15is all designed to of course hopefully18:18keep the artificial floor. If one thing18:20I always learn about Wall Street, it18:22tends to do the unexpected. So, maybe18:25it's going to put another pressure on18:26Bessent. We'll maybe even see some18:28fireworks over the next 24 to 48 hours18:30as we get Jackson Hole coming through.18:32But things like the dollar, things like18:34these yields, things like Treasuries,18:36you want to still be watching them.18:37They're good observational kind of18:39markets for us to check out. Let's have18:41a look at US oil. Not too much going on.18:43It rallied over the last 24 hours and18:45moved up again. If we have a look at18:47Brent, we always like to look both of18:49them. You can see again they're18:50stabilized and really the interest18:52hasn't been there. The interest has been18:53in energy stocks. So, we've seen here18:56energy stocks come back to the daily 20.18:59We've seen the daily 20 so far hold up19:01twice. This is the third time. Will it19:03hold again? Important level for of19:06course the bulls to be able to hold.19:07Bears would like to get underneath that19:09level and crack the diesel. You know,19:11what has been going on here from the19:13diesel side? Uh the story is not new, of19:16course. It's been going on for quite19:18some time since July, but it probably19:20hit the media, I would say, in here. And19:23of course, we were talking about it uh19:26before that in terms of diesel price,19:27but also just in general, the19:29observation of the price action and the19:31movements. Remember, it kind of reminds19:32me of oil refineries last year, oil oil19:36services, I mean. Oil services went19:37before energy even considered going. It19:40was an October-November19:42style price action market. The beautiful19:44thing about Wall Street, they tend to19:46show their hand, price action, data,19:48flows, guys. So, a little bit of19:50improvement there in crack, I guess, the19:52last 24 hours. For the Qs, we're at the19:54call resistance on the zero DTEs, so19:57we're at 720. We're still really trapped19:59though, between 700 and 730. You've got20:01your call resistance, you've got your20:02put support, and you've got a whole20:04bunch of literally equilibrium sitting20:07around this. And markets love doing this20:08ahead of big news. Just look at Nvidia.20:11It was sitting right in the middle, it20:12slammed down almost into full support,20:14and then it ramped straight up to the20:16call. So, it's just it's a kind of why20:19we talk about these levels quite a lot.20:21What about S&P? S&P came to the anchored20:23VWAP, which is this purple line here,20:25and you'll note that it is sitting on20:27that put support, zero DTE. It's rallied20:29a little bit, but it's still20:31realistically kangarooing at this point.20:33And most of the interest has been in the20:34sector rotation over the last few20:37months. Here's the option or here's the20:39actual20:41futures market of it, and you'll note20:43again, it hasn't really pulled back20:45fully to like a level like 7500, where20:47you start getting into more serious20:49trade volume. But yeah, I can see why it20:51stops here. It's like this is maybe the20:52first level, this is maybe the second20:54level, and then I guess for the bulls,20:56this would be the third level. And20:57underneath this, the bears would be20:59smiling, and they'd be like, "Yes, it21:01could be a Wyckoff." And I'm sure21:02they'll be very excited if that occurs.21:04But for now, the evidence is still21:07mostly higher highs, higher lows with21:09really the sector rotation continuing21:11through. Guys, just remember the Jackson21:14Hole Symposium concept is 10:00 a.m.21:16That is New York time. And really, you21:20know, like anything news, we always say,21:22"Oh, it's the biggest it's the biggest21:23it's the biggest one of 2026." It is Fed21:26Chair Wallace's first. We don't know21:28what the Fed really wants to do cuz21:30they're not going to tell us. So,21:31realistically, that's what keeps the21:33markets guessing. Remember that the fear21:35of the unknown is where Wall Street21:38really struggles. And that's something21:40that I think the Fed is going to do21:41pretty well over the next coming years.21:43They may freak us out a little bit with21:45that. September, October, big months. If21:47you enjoyed today's video, subscribe,21:49smash that bell button. If you love21:51markets, I mean, we love markets, you21:52love markets, I love markets. And21:54believe me, the beautiful thing is21:56remember I've been doing this for over21:5717 years, and I still love it, guys. You22:00know the best thing I always say this to22:01people, and I'll leave you with this22:02one, is what you learn here in markets22:05has22:06huge impact into everything you do in22:09life. And I really believe that. I've22:11trained many people, and I've seen it.22:13Whether you end up doing trading and22:14investing or whether you just passively22:16do it or do it not even do it at all,22:18and you go into entrepreneurship or22:20anything, the skills and the the big22:22realizations you learn here, man, does22:25it have an impact. I hope you have a22:26fantastic day, and I wish you the very22:28best. Bye for now.
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