Transcript of This Market Is Going Crazy...
FX Evolution - Trading Academy
0:00A few days ago, we saw a new number one.0:03That is the largest transaction ever to0:05be recorded on the triple Q. Since then0:08though, we've seen degradation in the0:10markets. And Wall Street seems to be up0:12to something a little bit sneaky. In0:15today's video, we need to break down0:16some of their favorite indicators and0:18why you need to be paying attention to0:20them and how less than 40% of stocks are0:23currently trading on the S&P above their0:2520-day moving average. Considering we're0:28only 2% off the highs, what exactly is0:31going on? In today's video, we take a0:33look at some good bounces from certain0:35markets such as gold, some fall-offs in0:38others, and maybe a cautionary tale from0:40this chart here. Whether you like0:43stocks, commodities, or cryptos, today's0:46video is going to be a good one. I'll0:48see you very soon.0:56Well, welcome back to one of the largest0:57daily shows on the planet when it comes0:59to everything that you love about1:00markets. Whether it's macro Wall Street1:02flows or just a couple of sneaky1:04darkpool trades, we've got a lot to get1:06into in today's session. But more1:09importantly, we've got a story that I1:11think you'll want to hear. Hi, my name's1:13Thomas. I've been in markets for over 171:15years, and we do things on the channel a1:17little bit differently. We break down1:18the behavioral finance aspects to really1:21show how retail traders and investors1:23like you potentially get trapped by the1:25news, the parameters, and of course the1:28information that we actually end up1:30hearing. So guys, why do we say if it's1:32in the press, it's in the price? Well,1:35today you might find out. Let's take a1:37look here at starting off with a couple1:39of the big stories. This one here coming1:40in from Oruro Infiniti over on X. Great1:43chart here, guys. basically shows that1:45data centers continue to accelerate into1:48the back end of 2026 while general1:51office and investment generally in1:54industrial continues to drop. Now you1:57might think well it's okay the data1:58centers will save us but just remember2:00as soon as that capex spend goes or2:03something goes wrong in AI there is a2:05significant weakness in fact if you2:07strip out that stuff remember the GDP of2:09the US market is actually not really2:11growing it's all about AI right now and2:14I think that's very important to note as2:16we head into potential IPOs for2:18anthropic and of course open AI as well2:21both of them out on the PR trail at the2:23moment with some stories that we'll talk2:24about later on today. So, let's go2:27through what everyone is discussing2:29right now. The weakness in the S&P. And2:32what that is is it's not so much that2:34we've lost a lot because of course we're2:35only around 2% down from all-time highs.2:38It's that we're starting to see one of2:40our favorite reads and a few others2:42weakening. That is the advanced decline2:44line is dropping. Less stocks are going2:47up, more stocks are going down on the2:49daily. And that shows that there is some2:51type of rotation going on underneath the2:53hood. And you've probably noticed it if2:55you've looked at any of your favorite2:56stocks recently or of course favorite2:59sectors. Does that mean there's no3:00abundance though? No, of course there's3:02abundance. The great thing on this3:03channel is we talk about it all the3:05time. Since June, we've seen so many new3:08market sectors. Healthcare, biotech,3:10energy, gold, metals. That's just to3:13name a few. But at the same time, we've3:15seen huge drop offs in airlines,3:17weakness in regional banks, and of3:19course, the massive fall off in3:21semiconductors. just a month and a half3:23ago leading to some mega liquidations.3:26So, take a look at this chart here. And3:28this particular indicator is a great one3:30to have on your chart in general.3:32Basically, the percentage of stocks3:34above the 20 DMA. And I still remember3:36when I first got into investing and3:38trading, seeing this for the first time3:40and thinking it was a bit of a cheat3:42code. Why? Well, it gave me an excellent3:44kind of leadup to saying whether the3:47market in general was overpriced or3:49whether it was potentially getting3:51cheap. And although this is only a3:53percentage of stocks above the 20 DMA,3:55when you start to pack it out with a3:57whole bunch of different reads, it3:59really starts to make sense. So, are we4:01above 80? No. So, we're not necessarily4:04on a momentum run that is absolutely4:06extreme, but are we below 20 to 25?4:09Well, the answer is also no. So, you4:11might think, well, we're just in the4:12middle of nowhere. And in some ways,4:14that's true. At 39, you're not4:16necessarily strong, nor are you4:18significantly weak right now. But this4:20is interesting because it's happening at4:22only 2% away from all-time highs. And4:26it's showing us that breadth is starting4:27to decrease, guys. Bread, breadth,4:29breadth. A lot of people go on about it.4:31It's really pretty important, I think,4:33at highs and less important actually4:36coming off the basis cuz remember, you4:38usually get those gamma stocks. They4:40rally first, the big tech stocks. They4:42rally and then you get the rest of the4:44broadening market. And we've actually4:45had a pretty good broadening market for4:47a little while now, but we lost tech4:49just about a month and a half ago in the4:51form of semiconductors and hardware. And4:53since then, other things have picked up.4:56Now, they're starting to weaken. Have a4:58look here at the chart from Blue Kurdic4:59showing the MLEN oscillator, and that's5:01falling below 50. Now, when that's5:03happened in the past, yeah, we've got a5:05couple of reads here, and it's not5:07necessarily that good. Notice some of5:08the dates, too. 2018, of course, the5:11trade war back then. 20995:14the.com boom into bust and now again in5:182021 and 2026 just before the falloff in5:22of course stocks before we saw a bare5:25bust in 22 and of course now a couple of5:27times in 2026. Now what's the importance5:30here? Well, only 27.3% of the time was5:33the market up after the next month. And5:36continuing we're leading into September5:38here or we're in September now. arguably5:40the weaker month of the year generally5:42the back end kind of being where the5:44weakness is and October in a midterm5:46election year you kind of have to think5:48well could we be continuing to see more5:50kangaroo style markets remember if big5:53tech's falling it's very difficult for5:55the index to go up because almost 40% of5:57the index and actually over 40% of the6:00S&P is tech if you consider everything6:03and all the major stocks out there. So6:05what's this doing to fear and greed?6:07Well, we're still seeing a lot of fear6:08in the markets. That is the CNN uh6:11indicator here is basically showing6:12fear. We've looked at sentiment surveys.6:15They've got a lot of people bearish. And6:17during these times, you also have to ask6:18yourself whether people on Wall Street6:20are shorting. Now, there are some people6:22shorting and that's showing up in, if6:25you can believe it, levels that we6:27haven't seen since 2009 in terms of6:29short interest, but it's not across the6:31board. We're not necessarily seeing it6:32in tons of puts. We're also not6:34necessarily seeing it in every6:36particular stock. And I think this is6:38important because there are some things6:40coming up that could have big impacts to6:42you on these markets. An IPO, do you6:45guess which one? Could be coming in just6:47a few weeks to month. On top of that, we6:49have a Fed decision. Now, according to6:52Kulchi, according to this, we're6:53basically seeing about a 60% chance of a6:56Fed hike. Now, this is significant6:58because, of course, if we see a Fed7:00hike, then that gives people a lot of7:02concern over the current debts. Remember7:04those 100red-year bonds that we just had7:06from Google and many others launched7:09into the markets because of capex spend7:11getting out of control. Data centers,7:14they're driving everything, but now7:16people are starting to question the7:17debts and this is leading to inflation7:19and also pretty much a big risk on the7:22food markets. We're seeing agriculture7:25moving, which we'll look at later on,7:26and in general, just everything, the7:29cost of living, the K-shaped economy,7:31everything's starting to come under a7:32lot of pressure. So, like we've been7:34saying all year, bonds, bonds, bonds.7:36There are certain reads that we'll look7:38at later on today's show that you'll7:40want to be paying attention to moving7:41forward. Let's have a look, speaking of7:43moving forward, at whether this market7:45is overpriced or not by at least one7:47metric. And this metric becomes less7:49good as you head into a later stage7:52cycle, which we believe that we're7:54currently in at this stage when it comes7:55to the S&P. [snorts] Are we expensive or7:57are we cheap? Well, according to Duality7:59Research here, we're pretty much right8:01in the middle of the bands. We're not at8:03that level of kind of like a 16p or an8:0618p, which is often where we've fallen8:08off to in the last 2 years. Instead,8:11we're basically right in the middle. not8:13an extreme overbought market and not an8:15extreme one. But this particular8:17indicator, although I love it at a lot8:20of periods of time, the Ford PE does8:22mask one of the problems and that could8:24be that we've seen peak earnings.8:26Remember, if we have seen peak earnings,8:28markets don't trade based on price right8:30now. They trade based on prices 12 to 188:33months in the future. I think often8:35overlooked by retail traders. You want8:37some kind of proof on that? Just look on8:39the great earnings of so many AI8:42businesses, yet they still fell, guys.8:44Yes, they were overpriced. Yes, the8:46lefth hand side shows us that. But it's8:47also because the market said, hm, maybe8:50in 12 to 18 months, we're not going to8:51be able to grow like this anymore. And8:53they've allocated that to the price, at8:55least the beginning parts. They're8:57pretty good at doing that right now in8:58terms of their spreadsheets. Now, let's9:00take a look at some of the big stories9:02of the day. Of course, the big ones here9:04are things you probably are already9:05aware of. Basically, according to the9:08data coming out, the top 1% of9:10enterprise customers from OpenAI and9:13Anthropic bring in 80% of the revenue.9:16So, this is really important because you9:18could see it as both a positive or a9:20negative. One, it's early stages and9:21we've got new companies coming through9:23as adoption rate rates go up or two,9:26it's extreme concentration risk. And9:28obviously, if some of these businesses9:30pull back due to debt concerns, the9:32market starting to punish the bonds. the9:34bonds, guys. You could imagine what9:36would happen if these bonds get9:38attacked. Then all of a sudden, we're in9:40some trouble. Wall Street's AI trade is9:43of course becoming really one of those9:44things where it's all about selective9:46narrative. We saw over the last 24 hours9:48snowflake surging 22% but Broadcom9:52actually going down. Now, Meta had some9:54new results. You can read about those if9:56you're interested. But I think the big9:57thing here is that in general, we're10:00continuing to see AI layoffs coming, but10:03there's a change in the air. Now, Uber10:05just slashed their actual workforce by10:0910% in the announcement, but they said10:11it's not about AI alongside something10:14else, which was we're investing $1010:16billion in autonomous vehicles,10:19but it's not about AI, guys, but we're10:21going to invest $10 billion. Notice10:23there's a narrative shift here because10:25it's become unpopular to say AI is going10:28to take your job. So this is a very big10:30switch from where we were just 6 to 1210:32months ago where it was like AI will10:34help you and AI is fantastic. Isn't it10:36interesting how the time has changed and10:38this is why it's really important that10:39you think for yourself. You break down10:41these markets in ways that are10:42different. And I think that chart that10:44we showed at today's start of the video10:46will really come home to tell us an10:49important story that we could learn.10:50Let's take a look here at the S&P 50010:52September when August never closed below10:55July's final trading day. Now, there10:57aren't that many reads here, but Blue10:59Curtics's done a great job again just11:01basically showing that the average path11:03moving forward can be more of a kangaroo11:06style market. That is up, down, up,11:08down, and all around. Now, why could11:10this be? Well, it's got to do with11:11bonds. This was taken just about 4811:14hours ago, and the JP2-year bonds have11:16continued to accelerate since this11:18point. Basically, we've got weakness in11:22potentially the debt markets coming due11:24to the fact that we've got this runaway11:26bond yield in so many economies. The US,11:29Great Britain, Germany, Australia, just11:33to name a few across the board. We're11:35seeing so many rates breaking out and11:38this is putting pressure of course on11:39those debt markets. But at the moment,11:41it doesn't matter. The market's ignoring11:43them. And remember, it's only when the11:45market starts to pay attention to debt11:46that you need to start thinking, "Whoa,11:48whoa, whoa. actually paying attention.11:49Now, if markets are still making higher11:51highs and higher lows, oftent times11:53they'll continue to climb the wall of11:55worry. And we do tend to have a lot of11:57bears right now and a lot of bulls.11:59That's good for a healthy market, but12:01there are certainly two sides going12:02down. And that's why whenever I ask you12:04guys in surveys, you always come back12:06with like neutrality. It's like 50% of12:08you a bull and 50% of you are bears.12:10It's pretty funny. But that's because12:13it's a beautiful thing in markets. We12:14can create our own storylines and also12:17more importantly our own thesis to gain12:20potentially edge in markets. NAIM12:23exposure here it is 102. This was taken12:26from last week from stockcharts.com and12:28you can see here that it is still pretty12:30high even if you go and check it right12:32now. What's it telling us? It's telling12:34us that US equity exposure is reportedly12:37quite high here in terms of positioning.12:39Now, that's on the back of, of course,12:41seeing a whole bunch of funds that have12:43not much cash. That is, they're pretty12:46much all in. And at all of these points12:48in time, you're always starting to ask12:49yourself the question, have we seen12:51large trades? Have we seen a change in12:54these markets? Well, take a look here.12:55The number one largest trade from the12:57cues came through, and since that point,13:00the market's kind of gone like this, and13:02it's sitting at around here. Has it13:03reclaimed this level yet? No. So, it's13:06possible that this was a sell and we're13:09actually seeing breadth decline. You've13:11got to keep that in mind that large13:13trades don't necessarily mean the13:14direction, but if we do end up seeing13:16follow through in price, it can tell us13:18a little bit about who potentially is in13:21the no. And of course, it's not usually13:23us without being able to see these13:25breadcrumbs in the markets. It's so13:27important. Look at the breadcrumbs. Go13:29and track them. Be like Inspector Morse13:32or whatever and find these things. you13:35know, you've got to be starting to find13:36and think like they do. Let's have a13:38look here at earnings watcher. Now,13:40again, this week is not the earnings13:42that we've already been seeing. It's a13:43lot les smaller companies, but that13:45means there's a lot more volatility.13:47Please be aware if you're ever getting13:48into stocks, check out what the options13:50think because the options market, you13:53know, for Lulu, let's say on Thursday,13:55is almost 10% move plus or minus. If13:59you're not familiar with that, then all14:00of a sudden the stock goes off and14:02you're left scratching your head. If14:03you've ever had that question, make sure14:05to check the options market before. We14:07do share it through earnings watcher14:09each and every earning season. So,14:10there's another reason why if you like14:12that type of stuff, subscribe and smash14:13the like button. In terms of which14:15markets we're tracking the most, we14:16haven't really unveiled the n 200714:19version yet, but 1978 is the closest at14:22this stage. Now, if that is to come true14:24and that is kind of the crystal ball, I14:27guess we'd expect more kangaroo market14:29for now, followed by potentially some14:31weakness into the midterm elections and14:34then ideally actually a rally from that14:37point. And I think there are quite a few14:39people out there that are considering14:41this at this stage. So, of course, it's14:42a very important thing to be thinking14:44about in markets. How do we trade over14:46the next 2 to 3 months? How are we14:48seeing these positionings? Remember,14:50it's all about patience. oftent times if14:52you're confused the best thing to do is14:54to sit on your hands. You just do14:56nothing guys and then you wait and you14:58strike. So just before we jump into the15:01charts that I think will matter over the15:03next coming sessions I want to just15:04remind you guys if you're interested in15:05finding out more about what we do over15:07at FXE Trading Academy, learn from some15:09of my experiences and more importantly15:11get some of the tips and hacks that we15:13use to really analyze these charts in a15:16different way. you can sign up to one of15:17our free 20-minute sessions, links in15:19the description down below and pin15:21comments. So, let's jump into the15:23cautionary tale here. And I actually15:25want to go back to the first chart. Now,15:27you may have noticed on this chart,15:28there's something maybe similar about15:31all these businesses. If you guessed15:32alcohol, then you would be correct. And15:34I think the real story here is to never15:37assume that any sector is absolutely15:40safe. And the reason why this is so15:42important is because you've got to15:44expect the unexpected when it comes to15:46markets. Just over a decade or 15 years15:48ago, you would have thought this was15:51just a growth engine. And I'll show you15:52what I mean when we zoom out here and15:54get some of the back history. It was15:56rising and rising and rising and rising.15:58And then something changed between16:00around 2016 to 2021. We saw the16:04demographic shift. We saw people's16:07perceptions of alcohol shift. And of16:10course that old fallacy that you would16:12do what you saw, so maybe your parents16:14drank, therefore you will. Well, that16:16actually was kind of turned upside down.16:18And I think it's just an interesting one16:20because again, it hasn't been a good16:23sector to be in. In fact, over the last16:25couple of years in particular, if you16:28bought the wrong period of time, you16:29could be down 30, 40, even 50% on some16:31of these stocks. These were considered16:34defensive, but they were disrupted. And16:36I think the reason or the story I bring16:38this up to is because AI is going to do16:40this I believe and I'm sure you believe16:42as well to many industries which is both16:45a great opportunity moving forward and16:47also a cautionary tale of not16:50necessarily just believing the old16:53system that is whatever worked before16:55it's going to work again. It's probably16:57going to be a little bit different here16:59over the next coming years. If you like17:00that you agree with me put in the17:02comments down below. But it also is17:04happening even to McDonald's now.17:05McDonald's of course have other problems17:07such as really the K-shaped economy17:10putting extreme pressure on them17:12basically speaking people that are not17:14doing so well often considered the17:16McDonald's like kind of main audience17:19then they are just pulling back17:21basically the middle class and and lower17:23class are struggling the upper class or17:26higher class or whatever you want to say17:27it are basically sitting out there and17:29they're buying whatever they feel like17:30so there's a huge problem here but it's17:32also caused by GLP1s We're seeing some17:36actual impacts from GLPs, not only into17:38alcohol as well, but also into Vegas and17:42into gambling and into McDonald's and17:44into fast food in general and all sorts17:46of things. So, it's just interesting17:48because I think it's like 10 to 12% of17:51Americans in the adult population are17:53now on GLP1s. Now, that's the highest I17:56believe in the world in terms of big17:57populations, but it's just a different17:59shift. And this is happening right now18:01to many different industries, many18:03different stocks. And I think that just18:05that kind of flip of the brain to say,18:07"Yeah, I got to think outside the box a18:08little bit, that could be one of your18:10main advantages over the next couple of18:12years." Remember, there is one thing18:14that I think AI will not do well, and18:16that is going to be that it is not going18:19to be able to discern as well as you18:21can. You've got potentially thousands or18:23tens of thousands of hours in these18:24charts. Put them to good work. All18:26right, guys. Let's take a look here at18:28what's happening underneath. So, we saw18:30this in midcaps. Basically, the amount18:33of stocks going up in midcaps that has18:35declined significantly over the last18:38couple of weeks. Take a look here. Are18:39we at supports? Yes. But we're at that18:42really important point here for markets18:44across the board. Why is this? Well,18:46again, yields two 10-year new highs. Not18:50the highest highs, and of course, we've18:51seen previous resistances over here on18:53the left hand side, but certainly big18:56highs. At the same time, corporate bonds18:58have been jumping or dropping down. Junk19:00bonds have of course been dropping as19:02well. But as we often say, if we're not19:05seeing weakness underneath the hood,19:07then it doesn't necessarily become one19:09of those capitulation cells. And you19:11might be looking at treasuries and19:12saying, "Look at this. Look at this."19:14Bessent might have to get involved.19:16Look, it's of our opinion that at some19:18point maybe the markets may want to19:20pressure this level. So potentially they19:22may want to pressure it and say, "You19:24know what? What what really are you19:26willing to do to save the treasuries at19:28these prices?" But I'm also looking at,19:30of course, this read here, which you may19:32remember if you've watched the channel19:33for a long time, the Bofa high yield19:36option adjusted spread. And the reason I19:37want to bring this up to you guys is19:39because when you go and you zoom out,19:42it's at some extremely low levels. Now,19:44you may notice a kind of thing, a19:46pattern here that happened. It was19:49during the com boom and it was also19:51before the global financial crisis. Now,19:54I know, yes, boring, boring. Don't bring19:56up that crap, man. We've seen it so many19:59times before, but it's pretty low and20:01you don't often see like bonds markets20:04so complacent. So, previously we20:07actually saw the bonds screaming. They20:09were screaming leading into the actual20:12dot bust. They weren't screaming until20:14it was too late. Of course, when it came20:17or during the crash itself when it came20:19to 20078. So, it's an important point20:22here because it's showing us extreme20:24complacency in the biggest debts in the20:26world. Let's have a look also at what20:28diesel is doing. So, we've seen the20:30American consumer, of course, spending a20:32lot of money on all sorts of things. The20:34K-shaped economy helping of course20:37really drive airline profits, but at the20:39same time, take a look here at diesel20:41prices. They're starting to catch up20:43with U, AAL, all the airlines are kind20:45of dropping off. And at the same time,20:47the American consumer versus staples is20:50also dropping at this stage. When we go20:53and have a look uh through the markets a20:54little bit here, it's becoming clear as20:57well that it's not all equal. Take a20:59look here at this Google trend line.21:00Now, you might like this trend line and21:02think, "Oh, wow. It's come back down."21:03And yeah, it's an important point for21:05it. But what I always say is, let's look21:07a little bit deeper. And I got to say21:09that candle, which we looked at here on21:11the show just a few weeks ago, is21:13horrendous looking. And this chart still21:15looks pretty ugly for now. It's one of21:17those ones that is weakening even though21:20the company itself is making mega21:21dollars. And the reason I think it's got21:23to do with a little bit of debt and21:25competition. This is a race to the21:27bottom that we've seen here on LLMs.21:30Basically, so many LLMs are just21:33dropping price, dropping price, dropping21:35price. Remember, OpenAI just 24 hours21:37ago came out with an announcement that21:39they were going to say, "Oh, look, if if21:42[laughter] it if if it gives you a wrong21:44answer, we just don't charge you for21:46it." You know, wow. Okay. [laughter]21:49So, so who who wears that compute cost21:51and where are we going to be going with21:53this? It's all about optics over the21:55next coming months. Let's have a look at21:57semiconductors in with that in light.21:59What happened over the last 24 hours?22:00Well, we ram straight into the put level22:02and we rallied off that zone. So for22:05now, markets stay at least partially22:07defended in semiconductors and Cosby22:10continues to kind of start to trade in a22:13tighter range after all of those costs22:16or all of the the margin accounts and22:18all the other things led regulators22:20basically to limit this market. Another22:22thing to note is semiconductors versus22:24SPY. We're continuously seeing generally22:28speaking weakness from the22:29semiconductors. They were not the22:31performer that they once were. Could22:32they come back? of course, but you've22:34got to realize that this is not just22:36normal. I mean, we go through the last22:39run since 25 in particular. All of it's22:42been about semiconductors caning spy.22:45Now, it isn't. So, we could be in a22:46prolonged weakness here in22:48semiconductors. If not, that may have22:50even been the peak on certain hard drive22:52hardware companies. Very important to22:54think about. Nvidia, meanwhile, the best22:56of the best. It's been doing nothing22:58over the last kind of year. It started23:00to pick up. It's still showing signs of23:02improvement as they are probably the23:04best set in terms of overall financials.23:07I guess of course they're keeping the23:08centipede alive. Let's now go to gold.23:11Now gold came back to a pretty important23:12anchored VWAP and it dropped straight23:15under where a lot of people would have23:17potentially stop losses or trap zones.23:20Is this bad for gold? Well, the good23:21news is it kind of found a bit of a23:23rally. Not unexpected where it found23:26resistance. that 4700 was of course23:28always a level that we were starting to23:30look at. And when we go to smaller time23:32frames, you can see it is now coming up23:34to test this little level of supply. So,23:37will it get through here and then start,23:39you know, maybe showing signs of real23:40recovery? Too early to tell, of course,23:43but at the same time, it did bounce23:45where you kind of expect it to after23:47going down below here. And it's coming23:49up now to a bit of resistance. Notably,23:52silver wasn't as bad, but let's have a23:55look here. And I've actually put on gold23:57just in terms of GLD to look at the24:00options. Now the previous session, you24:01may have noticed if you watched the last24:03video, that was exactly where we saw the24:05zero DTE puts. It bounced off that and24:07now the zero DTE puts are pretty much24:09around the current price. So why is24:12that? Well, the options market, the24:14price action, of course, the structure,24:16all of this type of stuff drives24:18together. It's really un it's really24:19about understanding that price action,24:21that data, and that flow. Now, the thing24:23I found interesting about silver is it24:25didn't go to a lower low. It actually24:27was a bit stronger than gold. And you24:28can see here it's also recovered over24:30the last tw 24 hours. And at the moment,24:33what's it trying to do again? We got24:35supply here or resistance and the market24:37is coming up to see what happens there.24:39The bears may be sitting in here, guys.24:41But if the bulls can prevail, then we24:44have something to talk about from that24:45aspect in the next video. Now, what's24:47really been happening underneath the24:48hood? Oil's been going up. Oil is24:51pushing into of course agriculture. Now24:53we're seeing certain agriculture stocks24:56going hard. That is they're pushing up.24:58Why? Well, of course it's all about25:00cost. And yeah, there's some problems25:03here in the food industry, guys. And25:05it's going to impact unfortunately all25:07of us and of course put more pressure on25:09the middle class, the lower class,25:11whatever you want to call it. And25:12basically, this is a bit of a disaster25:15in some ways. So you can see here that25:16MOO pushing higher and just goes to show25:19again we we showed this up a few weeks25:21ago. It was already starting to improve25:23and there's always something else kind25:25of breaking in the markets. US oil25:27doesn't seem to be slowing down yet.25:28It's just kind of testing its way at25:30this resistance. Could it do like a25:32little pit sit here for a little bit and25:33then break through? Certainly could, but25:36it doesn't exactly look weak just yet.25:38And that is leading on to of course the25:41other charts as well such as crack which25:43is diesel basically and that is25:45continuously making higher highs and25:47higher lows for at least now putting a25:50lot of pressure on the system itself.25:52S&P 500 time new low dropped rallied up25:55a little bit but it is now low lower25:57high lower low. So smaller time frames26:00you could say down. Higher time frames26:02you could say are still up for the US26:04500 but there is that considerable26:06breadth weakness that is happening. If26:08that continues then we could be looking26:10at like a 7500 or something uh as a26:13possible put support. We checked that26:15out in the last video. It remains kind26:17of around that zone. Let's have a look26:18at the Q's. So what's happened with the26:21Q's? The number one largest transaction26:23came through around here. the market's26:25dropped a little bit and they're still26:27above that 700 put. But I think the 70026:30put being a net expiration is pretty26:32important and we'll check that out if we26:34get pressure leading into non-farmms26:36because remember non-farmms the jobs26:38numbers in the US they come on Friday.26:41So we'll have to be paying attention to26:43that because it can create volatility26:45out of nowhere just because it's one of26:48the big important jobs nor big important26:50economic numbers of the month. Is it26:52that important? Look, who even knows if26:54it's real or not? But the point is that26:56we do want to be paying attention to it.26:57Let's now take a look at IBIT. We can26:59see here call resistance across the27:01board. Pretty critical level here when27:03it comes to a breakout for Bitcoin if it27:06is going to happen. Put support. Yep,27:08you guessed it. Came and tested that27:10over the last 24 hours. So, we're27:12trapped in a pit. That is a market that27:15is sitting in a tight range for now. And27:17the good thing about tight ranges is if27:19they break either way, they often can be27:21pretty explosive. So, it's one of those27:22things where patience, react, and27:24predict and don't predict is one of the27:27key kind of things here where you see a27:28market trapped at a critical resistance27:31or support. It's actually a pretty27:32interesting market for Bitcoin as we27:34have seen flows improve through that27:36thrust and remain relatively neutral27:39throughout this level. We'll bring you27:41more details as we get them here on the27:42channel. Just quick reminder, Friday27:45non-farm payrolls, guys, 8:30 a.m. New27:47York time. But to summarize today's27:49video, I think the key here really or at27:52least what we're looking at is to think27:54outside the box a little bit here27:56leading through to 2027 as judgment is27:59going to become an extremely important28:01aspect for you in your trading and28:03investing style in the world of AI. But28:06on top of that, it is also that there is28:08a real meaningful weakness here in the28:11companies that are now right going up.28:13And this is off the back of of course28:15weakness in the hardware sector. the28:17backbone of AI. Why is this important?28:20Well, September and October are often28:22volatile months of the year. So, the28:24good thing is there's probably some28:26opportunity coming. There's even some28:28opportunity in right sectors if you're28:29interested in them and you figure them28:31out. But at the same time, there's also28:33a case to be made for just chilling out28:36and waiting for the next opportunity.28:38Thanks so much, guys. You have a28:39fantastic day. Remember to subscribe.28:41Smash that like button if you enjoyed28:42today's video. We'll see you in the next28:44one. Bye for now.
5,708 words · 805 lines
