Transcript of Wall Street Does It Again...
FX Evolution - Trading Academy
0:00Today's number absolutely floored me0:02when I first heard it. Over 50% of0:05employees at Nvidia are worth $250:07million or more, and 80% are0:10millionaires.0:12Once we let that sink in, it starts to0:14make a little bit of sense because of0:15course these stocks have been going0:17ballistic over the last couple of years.0:20But did Wall Street just set a trap, and0:22were some well-timed announcements all0:24part of it? Nvidia fell and then rallied0:27during the earnings call. And in typical0:30Wall Street fashion, it was the gloves0:32off when it comes to everything to do0:33with AI. So, what is the good, what is0:36the bad, and what is the ugly? Well,0:38let's just say there are things that are0:40looking okay, but there are some0:42problems in the stocks, commodities, and0:44cryptos right now. Join us as we go0:47through everything that you need to0:48know. See you very soon.0:54Well, welcome back to one of the largest0:56daily shows on the planet when it comes0:57to everything that you love about0:59markets, whether it's stocks,1:00commodities, or cryptos, including the1:02big macro stories, and of course Wall1:04Street flows. We have a lot to discuss,1:06and the last 24 hours was unusual in1:10every sort of way, including some of the1:11big storylines. Hi, my name's Thomas.1:14I've been in markets for over 17 years,1:15and on this channel we do things a1:16little bit differently, bringing price1:18action, data, and of course1:20institutional flows together to impact1:23behavioral finance. That is, how does1:25Wall Street manipulate these markets,1:27and how can you start to dissect them a1:29little bit better? Let's begin though1:31with Michael Burry because of course1:33he's been extremely bearish on many1:34stocks. But according to the latest1:36information, we've just seen him opening1:39a bullish position on Nvidia before the1:41announcement, guys, labeling the1:43position as a hedge. There you go. So,1:47even Michael Burry sometimes gets a1:49little bit bullish on AI, and I guess1:51luckily he did because according to the1:54latest result and this chart here from1:56@economyapp over on X, they were sending1:59pretty wild results. Revenue up 106%2:03with a $4.1 billion beat. Operating2:06margin 66% and the financial year 272:09guidance revenue for Q3 $108 billion2:13with a $3.4 billion beat. So, all in2:17all, it was a pretty damn stellar2:19earnings reaction. And of course, yes,2:22Jensen was at it with some big2:24announcements all coming in at the same2:26time. And boy oh boy, do these guys know2:28how to make announcements at the right2:29time. Amazon Web Services doubling down2:32on AI infrastructure, announcing on2:35August the 26th that basically they have2:38plans to deploy an additional 2 million2:41Nvidia GPUs across its global data2:44centers through to Q2 2029. So, at least2:48at this stage, we're seeing imports or2:51at least exports coming out of South2:53Korea still looking pretty healthy. And2:55of course, this whole circular thing2:57going on. And one of the things I2:58noticed that Jensen was very quick to3:01kind of backpedal on and make sure to3:03change was that he said that this is not3:06a circular-style,3:08you know, ecosystem. And he was trying3:11to get away from that one as much as3:12possible. What do you guys think in the3:14comments down below? Do you still think3:15it's some form of circular system where3:17everyone's just kind of handing off3:18money to each other? There are certainly3:21some concerns out there. Salesforce also3:23with a big announcement introducing3:25Anthropic Claude into the platform and3:28basically committing to that idea that3:31now it is all part of the one type of3:33software as a service. Now, in this3:35case, it actually led to the stocks3:37moving up. And it just goes to show the3:39abundance principles that we talk about3:41in the channel. We just saw CRM the3:43other day, Salesforce, on the charts3:45start to look a little bit healthier.3:47It's one of the worst software3:48performers. Of course, it was improving3:50after Microsoft. And it just goes to3:52show, guys, there's always another3:54opportunity out there. Now, when it3:55comes to core PCE, that was another3:57story, which we'll get into in a moment,3:59because inflation seems to still be4:01around. But here is a good chart from4:03Blue Curdick,4:04basically breaking down how Nvidia4:06earnings reactions have tended to go in4:09the markets, at least most recently. And4:11you'll notice that actually they've been4:12a little bit bearish in reaction. Uh and4:15that's what initially did occur, but4:16then the chart went straight back up.4:18We'll talk about the traps that are set4:20there later on today. But in general,4:22you know, a few days later, a lot of the4:24time it kicks it off. And even in the4:26worst cases recently, the markets4:28haven't actually been down that much.4:30And Jensen was, of course, pretty happy4:32about this, because overall it was an4:35amazing result, and they continue to4:37seemingly find ways to get more money,4:40more capex spend, and to keep those4:43massive margins. I mean, surely4:45someone's going to be coming for the pie4:47soon. They already are. When you have4:49margins like these, in capitalism4:51anyway, it doesn't tend to last forever.4:54And we've seen that many times in4:55history with the railroads, with, of4:57course, the dot-com boom, with4:59electricity, with the Model T car, with5:02everything. It always eventually5:04collapses in terms of price compression.5:07And I think that's just a few earning5:09seasons away, if that. But this so far5:12has been an amazing season. Now, we've5:14also seen Cloudflare come out come out5:16with amazing announcements heading into5:18its plans for, of course, IPO. They've5:20talked about their addressable market as5:22305:23trillion dollars. It sounds like5:25something in Shark Tank. I spoke about5:28it yesterday at the video, you guys. So5:29obviously we talked about it together.5:31And it just reminds me of that cla-5:33famous kind of thing you see on Shark5:35Tank. The fashion industry is worth $25:37trillion. If we just capture 1%5:41Imagine. Yeah, you know what I mean? So5:43SpaceX did this 28.5 trillion, they5:47claimed as, but Claude has one-upped5:49them with 30 trillion, which is in5:50essence the size of the entire US5:53economy. So, you may agree that's5:56possible, but whenever they bring up big5:58numbers like this, of course, it's all5:59around trying to get those huge6:01valuations. And I love it how, you know,6:03we've moved from billions, tens of6:05billions to hundreds of billions, and6:07now we're sitting at 30 trillion6:08dollars. Why not just include the entire6:10world? Why not just go, "There, we're6:12going at 120 trillion dollar addressable6:16might as well get there very soon.6:17Anyway, that is the number coming out,6:19and it'll be interesting to see whether6:21Anthropic continues this momentum with6:23big announcements, such as the one they6:25just did with Salesforce. This chart6:27here by Heather Long over on X basically6:30shows the PCE data that just came out.6:33And effectively, we are seeing still6:35sticky versions of potential inflation6:38out there as well. And really, what this6:41is doing, remember this is one of the6:42core gauges for the Fed, or was, is6:45showing that overall, people are6:47starting to struggle a little bit. That6:49was probably the biggest takeaway I saw.6:51The data is really showing there's a6:53super struggle, and you might say,6:54"Yeah, Tom, I already knew that." Yeah,6:56but the data's starting to catch up with6:57that. And that could mean extreme6:59weakness in the bottom end of the7:01K-shaped economy is actually starting to7:04rear its ugly head. Most likely, people7:06are unfortunately becoming exhausted by7:09the amount of credit card debt, the7:11amount of automotive debt, and the7:12arrears, remember the arrears that we7:14track, of course, every month, those7:16have been increasing as well. Let's now7:18take a look at what the market's been7:20doing when it comes to hedging some of7:22these bets. And one of those has been,7:24of course, looking at gold in at least7:26the most recent couple of weeks. Now,7:28gold stocks versus gold have been7:30improving on the charts. One of the7:32observations that we made on these7:34charts was that it's been a decade plus7:37since we last saw gold stocks really7:39perform better than gold itself.7:42Remember, it's been trapped in this7:43range for a long time. So, it's an7:44interesting one because gold has started7:46to see real inflows back into it. We7:49initially had extremely good inflows, of7:51course, last year. If you remember, if7:53you've been watching for a long time, in7:552025, charts looked really good on gold.7:58And of course, we've talked about gold8:00now since '22 when it really started8:02this extreme bull run. Why? Means8:04central banks purchasing, it's trying to8:06peg a new currency, it's a whole bunch8:09of concerns over fiat currencies and8:11debts. Why wouldn't you have those8:12concerns when you see what's happening8:14with the Japanese yen a little bit later8:15on. All of these things are pressuring8:17in. But, the inflows have been pretty8:19good here. From Duality Research, you8:21can see that we're not quite at the8:23tippity top of extreme numbers, which is8:25good, so it's not euphoric, but8:27certainly some improvements there. Now,8:29when you go to see gold or silver on the8:30chart, you're probably going to look at8:32the left-hand side and you're going to8:33say, "Well, it looks like there's some8:34resistance potentially or some supply if8:37you're a supply demand trader." Yes, we8:39have hit the first levels. And really,8:42what's happened is we've had dark pools8:43down here, which is large transactions.8:46Volume laser, of course, tracks these.8:47And then we've got large transactions8:50now at the top. Could that be someone8:51taking a bit of profit off the table?8:53It's certainly possible, but the good8:55news is that markets are still staying8:57sideways. So, we like to think of these8:59levels as pullbacks in time until proven9:02otherwise. Let's take a look at Bitcoin.9:04That had, of course, a great weekly9:06percentage change showing a lot of9:07thrust. In previous situations where9:10we've seen thrust like this, you may9:12note that it sometimes is either the end9:14of an extreme rally, e.g. here, or it's9:17the beginning. And because, of course,9:19it's coming off a base of not doing much9:22for a while, it's looking a little bit9:24more promising, but it's still early9:25days for Bitcoin. So, we'll see how that9:27ends up. In terms of flows, we'll give9:29them new updates. I did notice that this9:31particular one came in, and that was9:33also positive over the last 24 hours.9:35So, realistically, BTC flows the last9:38couple of days have been some huge huge9:42numbers coming in for Bitcoin. It's been9:44a while since we can say that. Most9:46closely tracked market. Love this one9:48here from Blue Curdic. Basically shows9:50that markets, if we are to go through a9:52standard mid-term election year,9:54also more importantly, the closest9:57structure that we could be in for some9:58volatility. And if you know anything10:00about your VIX structure, that tends to10:02spike into October of these types of10:05years. Now, 2026 has actually been10:07reacting pretty much in line with what10:10you'd expect for a normal mid-term. We10:11got the Q1 sell-off that we kind of10:13expected. We saw the rally to a new10:16all-time high, which you kind of expect.10:18And of course, most people that track10:19this stuff, including I suspect, you10:22know, probably Tom Lee also does, um10:24they're expecting pullbacks at around10:25this time. Why? Well, it's what has10:27happened in the past. It doesn't have to10:30happen. It's really important to note10:31that. It's just one of the different10:33data stats and seasonal patterns that10:35you can apply to your overall10:37methodology. And remember, one of the10:39things you want to be doing is building10:40out a really large, high-quality10:43methodology of separated ideas. It's10:45what people on Wall Street do. It's what10:47you need to start thinking about. If10:48you're just using one thing and that's10:49it, it's probably not enough. It's a10:51combination of so many things together.10:54And that's super important. This chart10:56here from Earnings Whispers shows some10:58big results still to come. We've got11:00Iron, we've got Marvel. Of course,11:02people will be looking over the next 2411:04hours at further, you know, movements11:07from Nvidia and how it's reacting in the11:09real market after that big swing in11:12after-hours close. And do remember the11:14expected options moves. They've been11:16surprising. I mean, Nvidia here, you'll11:18notice, is 6.2% expected. Guess what? It11:22closed like 5.something percent. Let's11:24say 5.6% up. It ended up swinging down11:27and swinging up through the options11:28levels as well. And this one here from11:30Earnings Watch Out basically shows you11:32that. Just quick reminder before we get11:34into the charts that really are going to11:36impact the next couple of days, we11:38believe. I want to just remind you guys11:40sign up to our free newsletter down11:42below. We've got a new one coming this11:43week. One chart, one story, one market11:46lesson coming from my experience in the11:48course the field and really just helping11:50you kind of better understand things.11:52Sometimes if you phrase things11:53differently, it's easier to just put11:56that in the long-term memory banks. And11:58you know what? In the world of AI it's12:00amazing to have these little things that12:03most people don't see when it comes to12:05AI. Remember you put in AI something,12:07it's going to give you a very generic12:09answer unless you know how to prompt it12:10properly. So the key is to also have12:13some of that experience, which you're12:14building each and every day, um which is12:16awesome. That's the great thing about12:182026. They can be used as tools to help12:21enhance our already existing knowledge12:24and lived kind of experiences. Let's now12:28take a look here at Nvidia. So we've got12:29that 2 30 kind of call wall.12:31We've got the put support around 200.12:34And if you actually went down, you put12:35on extended hours, so we'll do here.12:38Uh we'll go down to the 2 hours. Look at12:40this swing. So this is a classic Wall12:43Street movement here and basically it is12:46a classic dump and then it is really12:49what we always talk about. Patience to12:51wait, reaction, which is of course to12:53say, "Whoa, this market is now actually12:56ramping." And it got very close to12:58getting into that put support as well.13:00What I would have loved to see it do is13:02actually go bang and then slam off this13:04level. But it goes to show again that13:06market loves going for liquidity. So13:09liquidity is a huge thing. Then we made13:11a higher high and a lot of money13:14seemingly came in here the end. So13:16effectively, it's not a bad sign for13:19Nvidia when it does something like that.13:21But a lot of traders get caught off13:22guard with that initial reaction.13:24Remember abundance, guys. There's always13:26something else. If you don't see the way13:28that your system trades, if you're not13:30seeing what you've seen before that you13:31think you can replicate or you can13:33process, just going in and saying, "Oh,13:35I think it's selling." and having that13:36emotional feeling, whenever you have an13:38emotion, there's usually something bad13:41about to happen. Remember, no fear, no13:43FOMO, indifference, systematic process13:47is so important. Speaking of crazy13:49system, CRM, Salesforce, doing the deal13:51with Anthropic, pushing it up almost 1413:55percent in after hours trade. Now, did13:57it already start to improve on the13:58charts? Yes, and of course you can see14:00it put pressure on that supply over here14:02just a little while ago, dropped, stole14:05a bunch of, you know, probably longs,14:08created liquidity. You can see a slight14:09enhancement of overall trade recently,14:12and then, yeah, it's moved up. And14:14where's it gone to? The first level of14:16resistance or supply, with of course14:18some people looking at that 260 as well.14:21So, just goes to show there's always14:22something else in the markets. What14:24about Micron? Well, we can see here that14:26Micron's just kind of floating around14:28with of course the Cosby and14:30semiconductors. Even with the14:32announcement of Nvidia, we still haven't14:35seen any of these take out higher highs.14:37So, I think the next 24 hours to 4814:40hours, including Jackson Hole, which is14:41of course coming,14:43these will be paramount when it comes to14:45these markets. Semiconductor time,14:47again, a lot of people seeing this as an14:49inverse head and shoulders with some14:50neckline at 600. We've talked about this14:52for a while. When you see a crash like14:54this, it goes kangaroo for a bit. The14:57good news for I guess a bull is that if14:59you pull a fib, you're going to quite15:00like this level. The bad news is that of15:03course you don't quite know whether it's15:05going to go and do this for a little15:07bit, because in previous history of15:09falls in semiconductors, it tends to do15:11a lot of chopping for a little while.15:13What about copper? What about the15:14metals? Well, copper still hasn't been15:16able to make a new higher high. It15:18actually sold off over the last 2415:20hours, and silver is continuing to just15:23kind of do its pit thing. So, this is15:25the resistance or supply, and at the15:27moment it's doing a pullback in time.15:29So, right where you'd expect it. We got15:31a first pullback in time, movement to15:32the next level of equilibrium, and then15:34of course now a sideways style action15:37happening in the charts. Same thing for15:39gold, hitting to that almost 4,70015:41level, which has those large previous15:43nodes on it, and it's just starting to15:45consolidate in that period. And same15:48with platinum, just selling off over the15:49last couple of sessions. Platinum tends15:51to move after the other metals. So,15:53remember palladium and platinum, yes,15:54they're precious metals, but it tends to15:56be gold, kind of like Bitcoin. You know,15:58Bitcoin then Ethereum, gold then silver.16:00That's often the way that you look at16:02it. What about these Japanese bonds16:04though? Look at the yields here. Look at16:06the acceleration. The 01s basically16:09showing us that we have a extreme amount16:12of pressure coming in here on the Bank16:16of Japan, and of course the carry trade.16:18Why? Well, if we have a look here at the16:20JP 01s, you'll notice that they're just16:22continuously rising and rising and16:24rising. And that's suggesting that the16:26Bank of Japan is going to need to combat16:27again. That means raising rates. That16:30means putting pressure on of course16:31liquidity in the treasury system. This16:33is still a storyline that has to be16:35watched in the background. And the best16:37way to do that is often just to set16:39alerts at key fear of the unknown16:41levels. That is levels that you haven't16:42seen yet. And you can just chill until16:44that really becomes a thing. US 10-year,16:47for example, we haven't seen a 4.75 yet.16:50If we do, we'll be paying attention.16:52Treasuries wise, little bit of a higher16:53high again. Has Bessent done enough?16:56I think even Stanley Druckenmiller was16:58out there talking about this last 2417:00hours. So, there's a lot of working17:01parts here in bonds. But, remember for17:04years or for the last kind of 6 to 1217:06months, we really haven't seen bonds17:08markets do anything particularly17:09worrying.17:10Credit default swaps are on the rise.17:13Big AI companies are coming out to try17:15to compete to get more money. They're17:17now in debt. They're not using cash17:19anymore, guys. So, this is blowing out17:21the CDs at high interest rates where17:23we're expecting really no cut and maybe17:26even a hike.17:28So, all of this is going to put a lot of17:30pressure on the debt systems and we17:31expect this to be a big problem should17:33we top out in earnings. Cuz right now it17:36doesn't look like we have. I mean,17:37obviously earnings are fantastic, but if17:39we do top out in earnings like that,17:41things can change. And remember, IPOs,17:44IPOs, IPOs, earnings, earnings,17:46earnings, bonds, bonds, bonds for 2026.17:49Let's have a look at the US dollar. It's17:51stuck in the middle of the range, very17:52neutral there. UK oil or US oil, you'll17:55notice both of those still basically17:57just sitting on those supports. But17:59interestingly, energy had a decent18:02session of it, went up 0.6% after coming18:04down to that all-important 20-day moving18:08average. So, you can see here kind of a18:09critical level it reaches. Crack also18:12kind of coming back down and then18:14finding almost support around that 20.18:16Remember, diesel prices still really18:20really different to normal petrol18:22prices. So, we're seeing a huge18:23differential there. When it comes to the18:25options markets, we always like to check18:27these. Uh probably no surprises that the18:29Qs are trying to support this 700-70518:32level because of Nvidia it's trading at18:34717, but it's still just sideways. I18:36mean, the indices have not really been18:38where the best money's been at. It's18:41pretty much been realistically sectors18:44and rotations. Something that we talk18:45about here all the time, the18:47institutional money movement. We thought18:49this would be a trapped market. That's18:51what happens in a lot of midterm years.18:53We'll share the chart in the next video,18:54so make sure to subscribe for that,18:56guys. And yeah, you'll just see time and18:58time again, it's amazing how Wall Street19:01tricks so many people using news.19:04Remember, if it's in the press, it's in19:05the price. You really want to start19:07thinking about outside the box. Don't be19:08the sheeple. We we to be the wolf. Can19:11we go find maybe not the wolf of Wall19:12Street, but you need to be a bit of a19:13wolf.19:15A little a little wolf, guys, and go and19:17find of course those opportunities, the19:19abundance mindset. Solana, meanwhile, a19:22little bit higher, has been able to be19:24trapped within of course this little19:26range above the resistance. Looks very19:28similar to Ethereum, actually. They're19:29both just kind of pitting above the19:32resistance, and meanwhile, Bitcoin19:35hasn't quite done that. Bitcoin hasn't19:36closed above the high. I always look to19:38Bitcoin as the main most important19:40chart, but I think what's happened is19:42they're exhausted, you know, that was a19:43huge move. They're just uh they're just19:46taking a chill, and there's nothing19:47bearish about having a chill. You might19:49say, "Oh, Tom, daily bearish-looking19:51shooting star candle or pin bar." It's19:53not enough.19:55It's only one read. Remember, you want19:56multiple different reads to be looking19:58at these markets. S&P is still sitting20:00on the anchored VWAP. No real changes20:01there, guys. And there's the updated20:03levels for you if you want to pause. And20:05the US 500 futures, well, you can see it20:07as well. Just basically sitting around20:09the anchored VWAP. The first level of20:11major support, 7,500, still majoring20:14when it comes to the puts and the big20:15zones. So, yeah, pretty important level.20:18We'll continue to watch it very very20:20closely. Please remember in mind that20:22this week we do have Fed chair watch20:24speaking for the first time at Jackson20:26Hole. And this can be an important20:29lesson. So, that's on Friday. It's20:31happening at around 10:00 a.m. New York20:33time. You will want to watch that. And20:35why? Well, it all has to do with just20:38making sure that you're on top of what20:41the Federal Reserve is doing. Remember,20:43they're not going to tell us as much20:44this year. They're not going to tell us20:45as much moving forward. So, if there's a20:47policy change, if there's something to20:49do with bonds or treasuries that starts20:51to come and rear its ugly head due to20:53the Japanese stuff that's going on, you20:55just need to be on top of it. For now,20:57though, it seems to be calm, it's20:59collected, and the markets themselves21:01are rotating. It's a sector21:02rotation-style market. Hope you enjoyed21:05today's video. Remember to subscribe and21:06smash that like button, guys, and we'll21:08see you in the next one. Thanks so much.21:10Bye for now.
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