Transcript of What If WALL STREET Is WRONG?
FX Evolution - Trading Academy
0:00Wow. Just when you thought 2026 couldn't0:03get any stranger, we just had three of0:05the biggest AI founders come out and say0:07something pretty shocking. And this is0:09ahead of what JP Morgan could think is0:12the first of two rate hikes for this0:14year. Yes, guys, the bonds market is now0:17waking up. And as we suspected,0:19treasuries are pushing the Bessant0:21level. Will it be the Fed or is it going0:24to be the Treasury that blinks first?0:26And with Wall Street now weakening0:28underneath the hood, what exactly is0:30going on? Whether you're a trader or an0:32investor right now, there's a lot0:34happening and some pretty bad sentiment.0:37So, is it good, bad, or ugly? Let's take0:40a look right now today together in the0:43special weekend edition. We'll see you0:45very soon.0:49Well, welcome back everybody to one of0:50the largest daily shows on the planet0:52when it comes to everything that you0:53love about markets. It's great to have0:55you here and it was a bit of a mixed0:57week when it comes to everything that is0:59going on from Wall Street's perspective.1:02But one thing is for sure, the news1:04doesn't seem to stop on the weekends.1:06Even my cat seems to think so. Daario is1:10right. Wow. Elon Musk coming out with1:13Sam Alman and Daario Amadai basically1:16coming through and saying the same thing1:18almost coordinated at the same time. And1:21this is of course got to do with whether1:23AI is starting to get a little bit1:24dangerous or at least so they're telling1:26us now. It's not the first time we've1:28seen this. It's been called many many1:30times before. But could this also be a1:32bit of a concern about the capex spend?1:35I'm actually very interested to see your1:37comments down below because this could1:38have dramatic implications as you know1:41into the IPO of Anthropic OpenAI which1:44is now supposedly postponed to 20271:48according to Sam Alman. And of course1:50just in general what's going to happen1:51with regulation. So I broke this down to1:53four main concepts over on X in terms of1:56what I kind of am thinking about it. One1:58is fear of course the explanation they2:00give here. Two could be coordination.2:03This is where of course game theory2:05comes in. Anthropic can't slow down2:08while open AAI, Google, XAI and2:10everybody else is accelerating. But if2:12everyone agrees to slow down, then of2:14course that means that they can maybe2:16spend a little bit less, bring down the2:18capex spend and of course don't equal a2:21bubble and therefore a bust. But I think2:23probably the most common concept here2:26that I'm seeing around and probably the2:27one I agree with could be actually even2:29moat which is more regulation on top of2:32AI could also allow them to slow the2:34overall advancement and capex spend but2:37at the same point slow down any2:39opposition. Think about it. How hard2:41would it be to potentially be a2:43challenger in a massively regulated2:46industry? So there's also another2:48concept which is of course economics.2:49This might be of course that overall2:52capex spend, GPU spend and everything2:54else just is getting out of control and2:56they can't control it and this is a way2:58of potentially controlling it down.3:00Guys, which one do you think in the3:02comments down below? What a crazy tweet.3:05And of course, big explanations I think3:07coming over the next week as everybody3:10dissects this information. It actually3:12didn't come out that long ago. Now, more3:14information in Larry Allison. According3:16to the latest reports here, he tried to3:18sell around $7.5 billion worth of stock3:22and then quickly stopped it. According3:24to Lillian Rizzo here in an article uh3:27delivered on CNBC, he basically tried to3:30sell about $50 million worth of shares3:32Friday, canceled it straight away and3:35kind of saved, I guess, the stock price.3:37It does go to show at the moment if3:38you're trying to sell into this AI run,3:42markets are starting to sniff it out and3:44say, you know what, we don't like that.3:46And it's putting a lot of pressure,3:47which of course is hurting shareholders.3:49So, sentiment becoming even bigger here3:52as we get into the back end of 2026.3:55What do you guys think about the latest3:56sentiment results? According to the3:58University of Michigan report, that4:00actually went down even more in the most4:03recent survey. But according to their4:05AAI sentiment survey, which we always4:07look at here at FXE Trading Academy, it4:10kind of just showed us that pretty much4:12an equal amount of bulls and bears kind4:14of exist and that there's pretty much a4:17similar amount of neutrality as the4:19previous week, 22.7%.4:21So it seems like most people are picking4:23a side. And if you look at the4:25historical averages, it's usually around4:27this for bulls, a little bit less4:29usually for bears, and a lot more4:31neutrality. So, interesting times, but I4:34don't think anything too much to read4:36into from the sentiment surveys. Now, we4:38did manage to miss the video on of4:40course Friday cuz we weren't able to4:41shoot it. But what I did want to say to4:43you guys was I looked at the PPI numbers4:45and obviously the CPI numbers. I think4:47one of the biggest takeaways probably4:49was also from duality research which was4:52that according to the CPI numbers anyway4:54rising cell phone prices driven by4:58surging memory costs are actually a big5:00reason why this market is now pricing in5:03a full hike. Yeah, you might have5:05thought it was diesel price but5:06according to some of the reports that is5:09a huge component of all of this. 60% of5:11the monthly core CPI advance came from5:14that uh less than 5% of the actual5:17overall basket. And he always puts5:19together some really excellent reports5:21here. So, make sure to go check out5:23Duality if you're interested in finding5:24out more about that CPI report. So,5:27where does it get really interesting?5:28Well, it's bonds, bonds, bonds, guys. We5:30talk about it. Earnings, earnings,5:32earnings. They've been pretty damn good.5:34But, uh, you know, what are we getting5:36here from Open AI and Anthropic and X5:39and stuff? because we are starting to5:41see maybe signs of the earnings top out.5:44Uh are they worried about that? But also5:46it's of course IPOs, IPOs, IPOs. We now5:50I guess are finding out that there's5:51only one potentially this year and then5:53of course it's going to come down to5:55bonds, bonds, bonds. Now this post here5:57from Ryan Detric and Topown Charts last5:59week showed what the market is doing.6:02The market is playing with a lot of6:04liquidity. We see huge amounts of bonds6:07needing to be issued by the Treasury6:09over the rest of this year and of course6:112027 also having a huge amount of debt6:13on it. But at the same time, we also6:16have credit default swaps. One of the6:18most important things that a lot of6:20retail traders don't look at. You should6:23look at it by the way. Subscribe to the6:24channel and make sure to follow because6:26these things matter. And we've got a6:27blowout here. Basically, we have tech6:29blowing up. that is people are demanding6:32more money for the risk of the AI6:33investment and the rest of the market6:36just saying you know what it's all good6:38there's no debt there's no cockroaches6:39there's no problems and this is a huge6:42switch like we've not really seen this6:44since global financial crisis where6:46we've had so many disconnects we've had6:48it twice but nowhere near this much and6:51of course tech being the biggest sector6:53it really is the most important debt6:55that you're looking at other than banks6:57because banks show us where the debt6:58regulators are and of of course, more7:00importantly, where the cockroaches could7:02sit. Speaking of bonds, this chart here7:04from macro charts kind of shows us that7:07the US 10-year bond, which of course is7:09accelerating at the moment, I guess this7:11one's inverted, is also showing that we7:14have here the daily sentiment in bonds7:16in the dirt. So, most people are7:19extremely bearish on bonds, even though7:21the prices themselves haven't really7:24changed too much. And you might say,7:26"But Tom, I load up junk bonds and7:28they're dropping through." But you've7:30got to remember yields have also gone7:32up. So they're kind of sitting around7:33the same levels as they were except7:35you're actually getting a little bit7:36better returns on them at this stage. So7:38bonds are both a two-prong sword. On one7:42hand, of course, there's a really good7:44yield going on. And on the other hand,7:46there's certain people maybe calm before7:49the storm. No risk is really being7:51considered in these bonds. And I think7:52the risk component, as you'll see later7:54on today's video, is something we're7:56tracking really closely. Where is the7:57risk? Why is it not coming into these7:59markets and when will it just be like8:01this? Is it going to be after midterms?8:03Is it going to be 2027? Is it going to8:06ever happen? You know, the bonds market8:07isn't freaking out. I often say, why8:10should you and why should we all?8:11Because that is the most well or one of8:13the most important aspects of the8:15market. Now, according to the latest8:16reports here, we've seen JP Morgan now8:19seeing Fed hike in September and8:21December. this article here posted at8:24bar chart over on X and basically it's8:27starting to say well yeah we will get a8:30September rate hike I kind of believe we8:32won't I mean I would think it would be8:34strange to get one but the market seems8:36to be pricing in better than coin flip8:38and I've learned over the years I've8:40been in the markets for over 17 plus8:42years not to really think your opinion8:44is really so good as to say what is the8:47price doing what is the data doing and8:49of course what is the flow doing The8:52most important thing speaking of flows,8:54Azura Capital, Tavy Costa here. Take a8:56look at this chart, guys. Wow. This just8:59shows you again inflation expectations9:01versus commodity producers. Now, if you9:03know anything about commodities,9:04especially certain things like copper,9:06etc., Dr. Copper, then you generally9:09know that if they're going up, you've9:11usually got an inflationary style9:13environment in markets. Now, the market9:16doesn't seem to think there's that much9:17inflation around. the commodities9:20market. Well, it's disagreeing with that9:21and saying, you know what, oil to the9:23moon, certain metals to the moon,9:25fantastic. It's all great. There's a9:27whole bunch of inflation there, but9:29yeah, we're not seeing it in the9:30numbers. Very strange. Also, refining9:33capacity. This chart here from Andreas9:35Steno over on X basically shows that we9:39just do not have much diesel production9:41online. It's leading into, of course,9:42crack, which we've been talking about.9:44diesel in general across the world9:47becoming extremely expensive and and I9:49believe anyway probably floating into9:52prop uh into food prices and really just9:55construction prices and everything9:56around the world. You know, I don't know9:58how much longer the markets can hold10:00this for, but remember the thing is it's10:02obvious so everybody sees it. What has10:05become more obvious is it's now in the10:06press. I remember when we first looked10:08at crack weeks and weeks and weeks and10:10weeks ago in energy stocks, no one10:12really wanted to pay attention to them10:13because it was so many months past March10:16and January of this year. But then all10:18of a sudden they started moving in10:20price. Remember, if it's in the price,10:21it's actually moving, then it probably10:23means they're putting their money where10:24their mouth is, more so than what10:26they're just saying. Look at the flows.10:28Look at what the actions are actually10:29doing. Speaking of flows, China's gold10:32reserves keep climbing. This chart here10:34from Kobassi letter basically shows that10:37China, Poland, other people, uh, all10:39sorts of different banks around the10:41world are doing stuff with gold. We've10:43got plenty of stories on that on the10:44channel over the last week or two. And10:46gold's been recovering. It has sold off10:48a little bit recently, and you'll see10:49why in a moment, but generally speaking,10:51it's been doing really well the last10:53couple of years. If you've been watching10:54for a while, you would know that in 2210:5723, we started to get pretty, you know,10:59bullish, I guess, on the idea that gold11:01was improving on the charts and the11:03sentiment and the currency war and all11:05these types of different stories,11:07central banks buying it. Since then,11:09it's actually gone on to be a better11:11technical investment than most of the11:13main markets. And you might think, well,11:15the Q's obviously won. Well, according11:17to Polycarp here and pretty much what11:19we've been seeing, actually, gold has11:21done exceptionally well, especially if11:23you're tracking since 2024. Now, let's11:26take a look here at gold and what's11:28happened in terms of the biggest11:29transactions. Recently, we saw the11:31seventh largest transaction on GLD. And11:34since then, what's gold done? It's come11:36down. So, what are we looking for? We'd11:38love to see a big transaction. If you're11:40a gold bull, if you're a gold bear, you11:42probably want to just keep seeing it11:43drop down. But at this stage, we've had11:45some big ones through this kind of11:47demand rally. We've had some big ones11:50that have probably been targets and11:52we've recently talked about those. And I11:54guess the question is, can gold, can11:56silver, can these original currencies11:59actually start to rally through. Let's12:01take a look at some of the dark pulls12:02that just happened over the last week.12:04Notably, we got a big one here on IY,12:08which is the EyesShares US Energy ETF.12:10According to volume leaders, it was the12:12ninth largest and maybe more12:14importantly, it was a sweep, which12:15basically means it happened very, very12:18quickly. These are the other12:19transactions that have been large12:20recently. You saw some that led into a12:23rally, some that led into sideways, and12:25then of course this one here, the12:27biggest we've had in quite some time on12:29that particular market. Another few12:31people are asking themselves, did we12:33just see the dip in markets and then a12:35rally through? Not too many12:37transactions. There's a lot of different12:39positions coming through that are12:40smaller, but DDM here, which is the Dow12:44basically proxy, had a couple of big12:46transactions, notably the second largest12:48ever recorded on this particular stock12:50ETF. So, since then, the market has12:53rallied up. Is that enough though to say12:55the base is in? Not really. But this12:57week will therefore be interesting on12:59the technical charts, specifically with13:01people talking about flag potential here13:03on the S&P. And of course, a bunch of13:05options levels will go through very13:07soon. Yeah, very interesting times. Now,13:10this is a few days out, so you will13:12notice if you load up a crack uh ETF or13:15any of these kind of diesel prices,13:17that's gone up a little bit since this,13:19but it's also started to moderate. But13:21basically, oil prices, it went through13:23the roof. Of course, the stories coming13:26out on Thursday and Friday. Further13:28issues now in the supply chain leading13:31oil to go up. If nothing is done soon13:33and nothing actually sorts out, then the13:35world really could be starting to look13:37at significant declines here in the13:40overall amount of barrels out there. And13:43this is absolutely hitting the pump. I13:45asked you guys over on X what you've13:46been seeing. Some big numbers here in13:48Australia looking about $240, $260 per13:52liter for diesel. Some people of course13:53higher, but I saw all over the US you13:56guys were anywhere from $550 all the way13:58up to $9 plus a gallon. Wow. So, it does14:02go to show it's hitting everybody. We14:04all know this. And look at the volumes14:06as well. There was an epic volume coming14:09through. So, were we hitting the highs?14:12Is this now like going to start going14:14down into the election? Who knows? The14:16main thing is you're following the price14:17action, the data, and the flows. And of14:19course, we're looking for whether14:21there's signs actually in that data. You14:23always want to be looking for the14:24evidence. The evidence really is better14:26than just your opinion or my opinion or14:28anybody else's. Let's take a look here14:30at the RSP. Now this also weakened last14:32week. It did rally from this point. So14:34we saw basically the equal weighted14:37market. This is the broad market. Let's14:39not consider just tech go down. It14:41actually broke underneath this trend14:44line up and it's since then kind of gone14:46here. But could it be doing this? Could14:48it be actually broken down? Significant14:51advanced decline line weakness. All of14:53these things have to be considered. And14:55if the market can't rally quickly, then14:57we could be seeing that volatility in14:59the air for markets. very very quickly.15:01Duality Research also good report here15:03breaking down the S&P 500 sector15:06returns. This basically shows us price15:08returns, EPS growth over time and PE15:11multiples. And you might think, oh, the15:12market's expensive, but I think it's15:14actually valued at around 19 to 20 PE15:17right now. If you know anything about15:19your averages over the last decade, it's15:21kind of where it's been. Like it's not15:23exactly super expensive or super cheap.15:26And u yeah, it's interesting because of15:28course you'd think it's really expensive15:29based on everything you see in the news,15:31but it's kind of the same. Is the market15:33sniffing out a problem here? Why are we15:35get seeing these discounts in certain15:37sectors? Did we hit earnings peak? These15:39are these are questions I'm sure will be15:41answered over the next 3 to 6 months. So15:43stick around. Let's now take a look at15:45the overall rotation. Last week was15:48pretty much or this week so far was15:50semiconductors and then of course we had15:52a little bit of energy uptick. If we15:54went to just the Friday semis again15:57holding up. So it's strange because you15:59would expect to see semis and energy16:03kind of opposite to each other but we16:05actually had energy and semis kind of16:08both doing well for the week. So just16:10before we jump into the charts that16:12matter right now and we've been looking16:13at I want to just remind you guys check16:15out the links and pin comment down16:17below. Make sure to sign up for some of16:19the free services we offer that are16:20outside of just YouTube. the newsletter16:23which has a new one coming in less than16:2524 hours and of course what is going on16:28in some of the tips and tricks that I've16:29picked up over the last 17 years. Links16:31in the description if you're interested16:33in following us and joining our 20inute16:36live sessions. There's limited spots.16:38I'm not sure if that one's filled yet.16:39It may have, but make sure to sign up16:41for the next one anyway. It's great to16:42have you there. What do you got to lose?16:44It's free anyway guys. You might as well16:46check it out. Let's now have a look here16:47at the Carvana. Now, I only bring this16:50up because I think it's always16:52interesting in the US to follow what's16:54going on with delinquencies. Now, how do16:57you do that? Well, of course, there's16:58the news stories, which is cool and all,17:00but there's also price action. What is17:02going on with autos? What is going on17:06with, of course, car delinquencies,17:08credit cards, all these things need to17:09be checked out. So, I just kind of17:11bought this out because it kind of looks17:12like it could be a head and shoulders.17:14If it is, could that be starting to17:16spell, you know, problems? I don't think17:19you'll probably find that chart anywhere17:20else. I just like to kind of bring it17:22up. Yeah, look at it. Not saying it's17:24tradable, but it's very interesting17:25observation. And I always say if it's in17:27the price, then it's generally showing17:30up uh in the press sometime afterwards.17:32Let's have a look here at the New York17:34Composite Index. A lot of people don't17:36check this chart out, but it did fall17:38underneath the trend line recently,17:40which has been basically the rally of17:41this year, the story of 2026. Why? Well,17:45more companies are actually declining17:46than going up. And you can see this with17:48the RSP as well. It bounced a little bit17:51on Friday, dropped again after we17:53reported on it on Wednesday evening, I17:56think, or Thursday evening. But in17:57general, this has been a bit of a18:00problem. It's basically a breadth18:01weakness. And if we don't get leadership18:03from semiconductors soon or maybe, you18:06know, some type of technology stocks18:08like the Magnificent 7, there could be18:10some problems on the horizon. less than18:1240% of stocks are now trading in the S&P18:16above their 50-day moving average. So,18:18is that bad? Well, yeah, it's not great.18:20If it comes down to these levels,18:21though, this is where a lot of18:22position-based investors and traders and18:25stuff start to get a little bit excited18:27about markets. So, it's interesting that18:28it's happening while the market actually18:30hasn't really fallen that much, showing18:32there's a ton of rotation underneath.18:34And it's great if you understand markets18:36a little bit better. Sector rotation,18:38single stocks, more than just indices,18:41guys. It's a beautiful world out there18:43of abundance once you start to recognize18:45all the different markets. Speaking of18:46which, treasuries, the Bessant level,18:48guys. Well, that's what I call it18:50anyway. I don't know what you guys call18:51it, but basically a few weeks ago, we18:54saw, of course, the Treasury come in and18:56say, "Hey, you know, guys, where we're18:58going to put $2 billion or something18:59like that, and it's all good." Then19:01we've seen, of course, the the19:03statement, what was it? I am the house19:05now or something last week. But the Wall19:07Street guys, they don't care. They're19:09pressing to see what the pain point of19:12the US is. And in this case, you can see19:15the pain point currently is a series of19:16lower lows and lower highs. Lot of19:19activity coming into treasuries. It's19:21going to be a big point, I think, over19:23the next couple of weeks and months. And19:25this is the story you really want to be19:27paying attention to. What is going on?19:30Who's going to blink first? How much19:32money is going to be flowing around19:34here? Remember, the markets have been19:36supported by central banks for a long19:37time. So, if we see some government19:40intervention, well, you got to be paying19:42attention. Treasuries, though, putting19:43the pressure on the big price level. How19:46much lower can it go before there's some19:49type of intervention? Interesting. Let's19:52have a look here at Great British19:53yields. Take a look here. UK's yields19:56are flying through as well. We've seen19:58yields across the world basically20:00flying. And you might think, oh, this20:03must mean bonds are getting freaked out.20:04Well, look, I'm just kind of cutting out20:06interest rates here, and junk bonds are20:09actually still going up. Yes, you're20:11getting paid more for them, but in20:13general, once you strip out kind of the20:16interest rates, it doesn't seem like20:17there's that much freak out in the20:19markets. One of the ways we're looking20:20at this is the Bofa high yield spread20:22here on Trading View. And you can kind20:24of see that the last times we were here20:26were before the tariffs and before, of20:28course, the market freaked out there.20:30and the previous times literally if I20:32zoom this out far enough you're talking20:342007 before the GFC 98. So effectively,20:39you know, it doesn't happen often that20:40we see complacency like this in bonds.20:43But yeah, it's it's really happening at20:44the moment. And yields yields are20:46everywhere. Like I'll just show you a US20:4810-year. Take a look here at the US 1020:50year and check that out. And you might20:52think, well, it must be just in the US.20:54Look at it. It's flying. It's absolutely20:56flying up. almost hit here this level20:59that we haven't seen since 2023. Now,21:01this is a important level cuz we bust21:03through this. We're in the photo, the21:05fear of the unknown. But it's not just21:07there. If we have a look here at uh21:08let's say Australian yields, look at21:10this. We've got problems here in the21:12land of the kangaroos. Look at it. It's21:145% plus right now, guys. It is pretty21:17wild stuff. This is going to put a lot21:18of pressure on, of course, the property21:20market here. And I I don't know if21:22you've ever looked at Australian21:23property, but it's pretty expensive. Let21:25me just tell you that I think we've got21:27like three or four of the most expensive21:29cities in the world. Wow. So, a lot of21:32pressure unfortunately there. Let's have21:34a look here at this crack which is of21:36course diesel. It continues to go up.21:38You could argue that it's gone up like21:40one of the legs. Energy certainly has21:43been kind of rallying as well. In21:45general, this is a story that is not21:47going away, but it is a story that now21:49everyone's talking about. So, crack is21:51certainly in the press right now. And we21:54often have that saying, if it's in the21:55press, it's in the price. Could it be21:57getting up there? Well, at the moment,21:58just a series of higher highs and higher22:00lows. We did see a bit of a resurgence22:02in semiconductors, but SanDisk ended up22:06selling off here a little bit. Now,22:07there are some markets that have done22:09better, but I'm always looking at22:11Nvidia. I'm always looking at SanDisk.22:14These are the ones that led us. So, I'm22:16kind of watching to see whether they22:17turn around. Nvidia is still holding a22:20series of higher highs, higher lows, but22:21it didn't have a great week. So22:23interesting one there and semiconductors22:25need to be watched and the magnificent 722:27is right at the resistance. So again22:30critical markets if MAG starts leading22:32again they're the biggest stocks in the22:33world so they can push indices higher22:35but uh if these start turning at these22:37highs know not enough people probably22:40watching charts like this super22:41important level certainly worthwhile us22:44watching it and paying attention. Let's22:46have a look at the Chinese stock market.22:48Not so good guys. It fell off. So it was22:51sitting like a pit. It actually fell22:53underneath this hidden demand. Yes, it22:55could maybe find support here and rally22:57up. But yeah, very important point here23:00as we saw regulators come in and23:03actually start to push money into kind23:06of different areas bandating maybe a23:08couple of problems in the country at23:09this stage, at least economically. Let's23:12have a look here at gold stocks versus23:14gold. Again, the 10-year base continues23:17to kind of hover around the same level.23:19So, we're seeing gold stocks and gold23:20hover with each other. What about gold?23:23Well, it didn't take a lower low, which23:24is I guess good news for gold bulls, but23:26it certainly didn't recover any of the23:28previous highs. We've got lower highs23:30here on the small time frame. We're23:32looking to see whether these levels will23:34break out, but at this stage, no such23:36luck there for gold. Silver is kind of23:39similar. Copper rejected. I should just23:41show you silver because silver did23:43manage to look like it was doing a23:46little mini inverse head and shoulders23:47here and then it came down and pressured23:49this demand level again. It rallied off23:52it. Sure. But wow, that's a little bit23:54of a sneaky one here because yeah,23:56pretty obvious inverse head and23:57shoulders on a 4 hour, 2 hour, 1 hour23:59chart. Excellent level of demand of24:02course through the back here. And yes,24:04there's a rally, but was that a trap?24:06Was that a trap to take out stop losses24:08here? very important. All eyes focused,24:11of course, silver, gold, copper this24:13week, particularly copper because it24:15rejected that higher high. So, it came24:18up and it looked horrible by the end of24:20the week, rejecting down to the dogey24:22level. So, it still hasn't managed to do24:24that closure out, but overall still24:27higher highs, higher lows. So, it's not24:29all things are not lost yet, but maybe24:31this is all based on the Fed and24:34possibly even that AI announcement. Now24:36some US 500 players will give you the24:38flag which is going to be this. So that24:40is the market will break up here and24:44then close and then hopefully keep going24:46towards 8,000 8100 which is what a lot24:48of people have targets as. The bears24:50will say well it's a higher high and24:52then it's kind of shown at the moment24:54lower highs. So it's still weakening. I24:56always look at the options market as24:58well. So what does the options market25:00tell us? Well, we didn't get down to25:027,500, which I would have suspected25:04after we've done this that we may be25:06going towards. I mean, that's it seems25:08logical that we might try to pressure a25:10level like this. And we certainly25:12haven't come out into positive gamma25:14yet. So, 7,900's the net expiration this25:17week. It looks like around 70. Is it25:197750? Yeah, 7750. So, the high Whoa,25:23made you guys go blind there, but that's25:24all right. We won't we won't even bother25:26editing that out because that'll keep25:28you awake. I made you guys wake up there25:30in the US. [laughter] I know it's a bit25:32late when I got this video out, but S&P25:35you can see uh again resistance here,25:38critical level. Absolutely. 7750, you25:42know, big big zone. And does that marry25:44up with of course the Q's? Well, the Q's25:46are showing something similar. Take a25:48look here. All of a sudden, the options25:50market and the technical levels marry up25:53pretty well. 720 on the Q's for the call25:56resistance. The big one of course being25:58730 and we are not at 700. So where are26:02we? In the middle of nowhere and that26:05means that these markets have not made a26:07major decision whether they want to go26:09higher or lower yet which makes sense26:10when we look at the RSP and the mags the26:14underappreciated mags sector there. What26:17about Bitcoin? It's still holding26:19relatively well. You can see again core26:21wall kind of coming in. No movement26:23through that level just yet. We've kept26:25updating that. And look, rallies at the26:28moment being met with sell demand. So,26:30this is a critical pit at this stage.26:33Pull back in time. Do we see some form26:35of trap and then rally? I actually love26:38pits. I got no problems with them. I'm26:40sure you do. Uh, you start to like them26:42when you watch the show and you follow26:44along. Why? Because it lets you have26:46patience and it lets you see what the26:48market actually is doing. You don't26:49really have to have too much of an26:50opinion yet because guess what? What's26:52the market doing? D. Okay, you might be26:56maybe a little bit more biased, some of26:58you on the small time frames towards the26:59bullish side. Why? Well, market rallied27:02in. But I love to see that. And27:04remember, this mantra of patience,27:06react, and predict is way more than27:09just, you know, a saying. It is about a27:13way of thinking about markets in a27:15totally different way. Where do you want27:17to be really following the institutions?27:19Why? Because the institutions make27:21money. How do we see which side of the27:24supply demand they're on? By27:25understanding where retail investors and27:27traders go wrong. It's actually the27:29behavioral finance that really makes a27:31huge difference in these markets. Either27:33way, critical level this week for so27:35many charts. Guys, if you enjoyed27:37today's video, then please remember to27:39follow along. And do remember this week,27:41it's all about these things down here.27:44And no, it's not the CPI and CAD. It is27:46going to be of course the FOMC. Here it27:49is. the expectation of a potential rate27:52hike. We'll talk about it more as we get27:54into the weeds with that type of stuff.27:57FOMC statement, press conference is27:59probably where the big V is. 2:30 p.m.28:02New York time. And then of course we28:04have some other information coming out.28:06Bank of Japan policy as well may be28:08interesting because of course US dollar28:10yen needs to be looked at as well in28:13more detail. There's so much going on in28:14these wonderful world of markets that we28:16love guys. But how about that? AI just28:20suddenly Oh, we've got We got to pause28:22it, guys. We got to pause it and to be28:24coordinated. Wow.28:27What do you think? Let me know in the28:29comments down below. Going to be an28:30interesting Monday. Join us for the live28:32stream. I'd love to see you there. Bye28:34for now.
5,657 words · 797 lines
