Transcript of This Market Is Shocking...
FX Evolution - Trading Academy
0:00This is pretty wild. McDonald's has been0:03falling all year as yields and inflation0:06get out of control. But what if I was to0:08tell you that both had been moving 32%.0:12And this is actually one of the0:13strongest correlations that we're seeing0:15right now that could really underpin the0:17K-shaped economy. In today's video, we0:20take a look at both an investors and0:21traders mindset right now as Wall Street0:24to levels that we haven't seen since0:262003. And at the same time, we have0:29markets that are starting to show cracks0:31in onethird of the US economy, the0:34American consumer. Stocks, commodities,0:36and cryptos. What is Michael Bur doing?0:39And how has he changed his position over0:41the last couple of sessions? And an0:44anthropic IPO is set to make it. But0:46what did Reuters just reveal about the0:48IPO itself?0:53Well, welcome back to one of the largest0:54daily shows on the planet when it comes0:56to everything that you love about0:57markets. It's great to have you here and0:59today we're discussing the latest in1:01macro Wall Street flows and a couple of1:03sneaky transactions that went through1:05from the street itself over the last1:07couple of sessions. But let's begin the1:10story with correlation. And you just1:12don't see this every day. This chart1:14here from Heisenberg at Mr. derivatives1:16over on X shows that we have 32%1:19increase in 10-year bond yields and at1:21the same time we have a 32% decrease in1:24McDonald's. One of the closest1:26correlated things that we've got in 20261:29so far is possibly a representation1:32actually of the K-shaped economy. Now,1:34if you know your stats, McDonald's was1:36one of the only stocks to actually stay1:38positive during the GFC. So to see a1:41beatd down like this on a market such as1:43McDonald's really goes to show the1:46weirdness of the year itself. But really1:49where are the cracks showing? Where are1:51the good signs and what could possibly1:53be around the corner heading into1:55midterms? They're literally only a month1:57and a bit away now. And this is often1:59where you start to see that volatility2:01pay in because people get scared and2:04some people get of course very active in2:06markets. Now, flows into money markets2:09in general have been going the way of a2:11pretty bearish market indeed. And2:13macrocharts.com and macrocharts over on2:16X shared this excellent chart which2:18basically shows that people are moving2:20money into cashlike assets at rates that2:24you generally see synonymous with larger2:27pullbacks as much as 7 to 10 or even2:30upwards of 20% drop downs. And you'll2:33note here the stats from 2019 onwards2:36have really been synonymous with either2:38recovery periods or very close to the2:41bottoms in markets. So could it be the2:43same here in 2026? Well, things get2:47stranger when we start to look2:48underneath the hood. And as you'll know2:50if you've been following for a while,2:51we're witnessing one of the worst2:53breadth markets as we stay in what seems2:56to be a pullback in time or a pit in the3:00S&P and NASDAQ itself with markets close3:03to 2% within their all-time highs even3:06as upwards of almost all-time highs.3:08We're witnessing more stocks actually3:10falling on the day and now only 27.4% 4%3:14of stocks are trading above their 50-day3:17moving average and only less than 50%3:20are trading above their 200. Now, if you3:22know your Paul Tudtor Jones quote,3:24you'll know that nothing good happens3:25underneath the daily 200 moving average.3:28So, what gives here as utilities3:31actually find that almost all of the3:33stocks are going below and falling off a3:36cliff? Well, usually you would see3:38utilities and staples actually3:40recovering or moving forward in a market3:43that was, let's say, turning bearish,3:46that's not what we're seeing here in3:482026. And it has a lot of people3:49speculating that this is actually the3:51fall of the Kwave and really showing3:54that 10% of people are doing well and3:56everybody else is unfortunately not3:58doing very well in these markets and4:00that the economy and the stock market4:02have completely disconnected. Do you4:04think that's what's happened though? in4:05the comments down below. Let us know on4:07your thoughts. Of course, what are we4:09watching? Real estate. It's been4:11dropping off, but we're particularly4:13watching ITB, XHP, these types of4:15sectors because if we do lose real4:17estate, then it could be showing a real4:20sign of potential cockroach. And of4:22course, that means that we're getting4:24debt concerns and we could be looking at4:27even auto loans at the same time. So on4:30the channel, we are putting a watch on4:31these particular sectors and we're4:33watching them daily to see what happens4:36just in case something comes out that4:38isn't in the press. Remember, if it's in4:40the press, it's in the price, guys. And4:42often we climb the wall of worry. But4:44when real bond concerns come through,4:46that's when you need to start panicking.4:48Let's now take a look here at Ryan4:50Dietrich's excellent part post here from4:52Carson Research, which actually shows4:54something. And I think always context4:56matters because when you first see this4:58chart, you're going to be like, "Wo,4:59we're about to crash." Equity supply is5:02surging as net issuance turns positive.5:06Now, according to this chart, we haven't5:08really seen net issuance go like this5:10since 2021 Q1, which you might remember5:13was the hyperstocks boom, pretty much5:16where Kathy Woods fund pretty much5:18topped out and went absolutely5:19ballistic. and then the famous Q1 2000,5:23the end of the dotcom rally, pretty5:26close to the end of the bust. So, the5:28bust basically started straight after5:30that and it was all over. Now, we also5:33saw some interesting things happen of5:34course around the GFC, but in general,5:37this could mean that companies didn't5:39see a better time ever in history, or at5:42least not many times in history to get5:44some money. But here's where context5:46matters. SpaceX IPO obviously made up a5:49huge component of this estimated to be5:51around 85.7 billion and Alphabet made up5:55about 49.65:58billion of this. So really we're left6:00over after that uh I think we've got a6:03combined about 135.3 billion which is6:0688% of the 153 billion total. So two6:11companies basically made up almost all6:13of this net issuance. Now, you might6:15say, well, that means that SpaceX and6:17Google knew what they were doing, and6:19they were trying to get the best6:20borrowing rates that they could.6:22Remember those 100red-year bonds?6:24They're synonymous with markets getting6:26a little bit too frisky. We saw this6:28actually with central banks, the Swiss6:30central bank getting a 100red-year bond6:32and that being close actually to the top6:34of bonds back just in 20 was it 18196:39period. And of course, we all know what6:40happened to treasuries since then. So6:42why this is so important is because it6:44is a little bit of an escape. It's6:46showing that debt issuance has been6:48around. Obviously private equity is also6:50in focus and we need to of course focus6:54in on these things. When the bonds6:56market starts to freak out guys, when6:58the metals market really starts to freak7:00out, that's when you need to be paying7:02the most attention. I've often said7:03this, the stock market is, you know,7:06it's kind of just doing its own thing.7:07It works on greed and fear. What we need7:09to be doing is can we see outside the7:11box? Can we see how all of these markets7:13are connected? Something that, you know,7:15is such an important thing. And I think7:16what you guys love about the channel is7:18we bring it all together. We actually7:21look at, of course, the stocks, the7:22bonds, the cryptos, the commodities, and7:25everything interlinking. Now, Apollo7:27Capital uh caps its private credit7:29funds. We've seen this from a few7:31private credit funds recently as they7:32fall back off. Remember, they were7:34recovering just a few months ago and now7:36they're dropping off a cliff. this7:37report here uh coming in I believe uh7:40well there was a couple of them on7:41Bloomberg and a few other places from7:43Olivia and it really just goes to show7:46that this is the leftover of a few7:48months ago but now more people are7:51starting to stack on board so ill7:52liquidity in private equity often where7:54the issues lie that's starting to heat7:57up as well into this anthropic IPO now8:00we've got some findings on that very8:01very soon as well from Reuters allegedly8:04there's some numbers floating floating8:05around which of force are starting to8:08get everybody talking. The second8:10midterm script, will we see it happen8:13again? So, generally speaking, you see8:15the September into October period8:17potentially being weak for midterms.8:19Second midterms a little bit different.8:21So, you can see this chart here from8:22Polycarp FX basically showing us that8:25we're coming in pretty strong. And if it8:27is going to be like a normal midterm,8:29then often after the election itself, we8:32see markets recover. And you're going to8:34see this stat thrown around quite a lot8:37over the next coming weeks from a lot of8:39sources. We've already talked about it8:40at the start of the year. We've talked8:42about several times since then.8:44Basically, when you have a pretty good8:46return into the midterms, you might8:48think, "Oh, well, the markets have got8:50to fall off a cliff." But generally8:52speaking, actually, they do better than8:54you expect. Now, of course, there are8:55always outliers to this. Here, Blue8:57Curtics put together some of the big8:59ones here in midterms. And you'll note9:01what the general path is. And yeah, it's9:05sometimes a bit of a sell, but often it9:07rips. This one here in 1970s,9:10very closely correlated to 2026,9:13actually sells almost 10%, then ends up9:15ripping back to being positive and9:18having a pretty good time. So, could9:19there be volatility on the horizon? Of9:21course, these are just the seasonality9:23stats, so please be careful with those.9:25Another one that's going around is of9:27course the breadth. The breadth is bad9:29and there's no way to sugarcoat it. It9:31looks really strange and if it wasn't9:33for technology right now and the fact9:35that 41% of the S&P is made up of tech9:39companies that are pretty much accessing9:40AI capex spend etc that we would be in9:44some trouble. But at the same time when9:46we've seen this similarly happen before9:48these are the kind of periods. This is9:50what's happened afterwards. There are9:51some bad cases there are some okay9:54cases. So, you know, are we in that 20019:57kind of period where the breadth falls9:59off a cliff, the 2010s, or is it just10:03like any of the normal times where10:05markets tend to kind of be positive over10:08that next 6 12 months etc. Financial10:11cracking. This is something that we10:13talked about probably 2 months ago and10:16since then, yeah, financials have not10:18been doing very well. Basically,10:20financials have been weakening. Why?10:22Well, we believe it's got to do with a10:25little bit of high interest rates not10:28allowing people to borrow, a slowdown in10:30the property market, and then a whole10:32bunch of other things that are turning10:34into potential delinquencies as well.10:36We're seeing KR fall off, which is10:38regional banks, and of course, the10:40biggest and best in the world also10:42falling a little bit. Now, Polycarp went10:44through and actually had a look at this.10:4511 times since 1999, we've said we've10:49seen the financials break down. Now what10:53happens after that is kind of10:55interesting here. Generally times it is10:59kind of a market that is getting close11:02to possibly a sideways or even a peaking11:05period. You'll notice here these 200 and11:08kind of seven reads before the GFC. This11:11one of course going into the com bust11:13and already have busted. This one here11:16happening just before and during that11:182020 crash. And of course, probably the11:21one that's most correlated here, all of11:23the reads that we got before the 202111:27into 22 falloff. Now, it's not time to11:30panic yet, but certainly something we're11:32watching, and of course, we always look11:33at the financials. So, we did see11:35Reuters come through with a little bit11:38of information about uh, you know, the11:40anthropic IPO. I don't really want to11:42speculate on it cuz of course that's not11:44my place. Um, but in general, guys, what11:47we're seeing here is that they're still11:49trying to allegedly go for this $211:51trillion number. And when you start11:53looking at the numbers and you actually11:55look at some of the growth, the growth11:57number was crazy. I think it was like11:58a,000% or something like that. But at12:00the same time, the costs are also12:02ramping. So, what do you think about12:04this one? Let us know in the comments12:05down below. And of course, you can see12:08some of the data there. Now, another12:09thing that's happened is, of course,12:11Michael Bur has changed his AI thesis.12:13He's gone from basically being short on12:15everything to saying, "Oh, it could be12:17closer than we think." Guys, it could be12:19closer than we think. So, he's moved to12:22more puts according to the latest12:24disclosures and he's still attacking12:26Micron, Nebius, Palanteer. Take it what12:28you will. But, of course, it takes two12:30to tango in markets. You need both bulls12:32and bears. And what we always say is12:34price action, data, and flows of course12:37with a little tinge of behavioral12:40finance. That's the big key. Let's have12:42a look at crack. We've so far seen oil12:45fall a little bit since this point. We12:47had the number one largest transaction12:49ever recorded on this particular ETF.12:51This is kind of synonymous with, of12:53course, diesel prices right now. And12:55we've fallen back to the daily 20 moving12:58average. We'll take a look at that a12:59little bit later in today's video, but13:00still pretty key level. We've also had13:02some fairly large movement on the Q's.13:05Now, the Q's have fallen a little bit13:06lower from the time of this recording.13:09We had the fifth largest transaction13:11ever recorded on the triple Q's which is13:13pretty huge when you think about it and13:16this happened just the other day. The13:18markets then rallied. We had the sixth13:19largest come through. So could that be13:22just someone taking profit really13:23quickly and a whole bunch of clusters.13:26So there's actually a lot of13:27transactions going through on the cues13:29as we approach that high. Now a lot of13:31you are going to say double top Tom13:32double top man it's going to fall off.13:34Yeah that's a bit of a prediction. You13:36know, generally speaking, the trend13:38itself held the weekly 20. It is holding13:41up in tech and as long as it holds in13:43tech, it could be okay. What about the13:45rest of the world? Well, it's wildly13:47anticipated that today is going to be an13:48interest rate hike for Australia. So,13:51the plunge place that I live and we are13:53looking at a hike, two hikes, maybe13:55three hikes coming through. The Fed13:57decision according to poly market is13:59also moving pretty high. It's a couple14:00of days old. I haven't updated it, but14:02let's just say it's somewhere around14:03this level. 60 plus percent chance now14:06of October getting another rate hike.14:09Remember it was expected that was going14:10to be November. So inflation still out14:13of control and of course no end in sight14:15necessarily for oil prices. Now let's14:19take a look at the sectors of the last14:21couple of sessions. You'll see here14:23biotech healthc care kind of out14:25semiconductors doing okay as well. When14:27we look at the last kind of day it was14:30really bad for gold. gold getting14:32punished and the macro side really14:34hasn't changed which we'll talk about14:36but the price action did fall through14:38and that head and shoulders at the14:41moment doing work and pushing down14:43although it has recovered about half a14:44percent today. So generally speaking, it14:47was more of a defensive still healthcare14:49and biotech, the hidden secret kind of14:51sectors of the last three and a bit14:53months we've been looking at. We had an14:54energy and agriculture and really it14:58wasn't that weak for semis. So semis15:01were down one, but they didn't fall off15:03a cliff or anything the last 24 hours.15:05Let's have a look at why that is. Well,15:07we're still in a capex boom. and things15:10like Meta's new announcement Muse have15:13helped to I guess further commit more15:17data centers. Now the latest studies are15:19are really interesting. MIT of course15:21came out earlier in the year and said15:23that they believe that 95% of AI15:25projects are going to go basically not15:27be around. They're going to go bust.15:29They also said that they think that less15:31than or not them but somebody else said15:33in a study less than 40% of data centers15:37are actually going to be built out. Now,15:38at the same time, of course, everyone's15:40still buying these graphics cards. They15:43seem to be sitting in warehouses15:44somewhere, but maybe eventually they'll15:46be put online. Now, top down charts15:48here, Callum Thomas, great chart,15:50basically showing that technology capex15:53spend is getting out of control. It's15:55going wild. And at the same time, we're15:56also seeing commodities upticks. So,15:58that's good for those two sectors. But16:00remember, if that turns, if we see a16:02weakness, if we see a bond breakout,16:04credit default swaps get out of control,16:06all these types of things, then we could16:08be in trouble because you can note here16:10that a lot of the S&P 500 gains are16:14coming from energy, technology,16:16healthcare, and materials. And that is16:19been the sectors that we've seen for a16:21long time now performing. Remember, most16:23stocks are actually not doing well if16:25you're looking at the rest of the 500.16:27But luckily, most of the market cap is16:30in tech and that's been holding up.16:32Staples continue to drop in general16:35versus the overall S&P. As that happens,16:38often people have considered that to be16:40a bullish sign for markets risk on, but16:42do remember that McDonald's story.16:44Problem here is this strange K-shaped16:46economy. We've not really seen that and16:49the difference between, let's call it,16:50wherever the middle class is right now,16:52and everybody else um up the top,16:551enters and stuff. We haven't really16:57seen this huge change in relationship17:01pretty much in the last kind of 70 8017:03years since after World War II. Now,17:06what's really changed here is we're17:08starting to see even the luxury market17:10start to fall through and that's because17:12they're losing everybody else. So, the17:14K-shaped economy is becoming pretty real17:16and we already know this, but it seems17:19to be manifesting in price action at17:21this point as well. Let's talk Bitcoin17:23for a second. Now you've often heard17:25kind of the meme October.17:27So that is that during the month of17:29October, Bitcoin does a little bit17:31better. Polycarp research here kind of17:33showing the election years, how October,17:35November, December have done in the17:37past. Midterm years in general, of17:40course, a little bit more subdued and in17:42general post election uh that's been17:45actually more bullish for it. So could17:47Bitcoin be turning? Let's take a look at17:49some of the numbers. First up, altcoins.17:51Looks like as soon as Bitcoin goes,17:53everyone jumps on the altcoin wagon17:55trying to go and capture those gains17:58from the random coins that probably do18:00nothing. Now, in this case, Glass Node18:02here at Glass Node over on X. Give him a18:05follow, guys. Basically shows that yeah,18:09we are seeing of course a general uh18:12instant alt froth. Uh and that can18:15sometimes be synonymous with Bitcoin18:17going into another pit style market. So,18:19even with ETF flows looking pretty good,18:22Bitcoin has been struggling a little18:24bit. The good news for technical18:26analysts is still higher highs and18:27higher lows. And we'll break that down18:29very, very soon. Quick reminder, guys,18:31if you're interested in finding out a18:32little bit more about what we do,18:33remember I go through my 17 plus years18:36of experience. I share one chart, one18:38story, one market lesson. I think uh18:40this one here as well you guys will18:42really enjoy which goes back through the18:44electricity craze and of course the18:46dotcom boom and really just talks about18:49the fact that people weren't even18:50bullish enough on some of that stuff but18:52at the same time markets still uh18:55punished the wrong timing for18:57investments. So timing turned out to be18:59everything when it came to those19:00technologies and also selection itself.19:03Let's now have a look at utilities19:06discretionary what's going on with19:08staples. Now, all of these are falling19:10off versus the S&P. Now, particularly19:13discre at the discretionary side, that's19:15actually showing us that there's a real19:17weakness in the potential economy. And19:20if you stripped out the gains at the19:22moment, that is AI gains, you'd probably19:24almost have a negative GDP. But I always19:26say to people, you know, the market and19:29the economy are different things. We19:30have inflation at the moment and we have19:32growth. And generally during these19:34periods of time as I teach in some of19:36our courses I talk about it you know any19:39energy tends to do a little bit better19:41some metals tend to do better and often19:43the technology at the time tends to do19:45better and that's actually what's19:46happened in 2026. So remember these19:48things in the past if that continues to19:51be the case and we don't know it is but19:53if that continues to be a case almost19:55energy and capex growth in general that19:58is everything to do with hardware and AI20:01they almost have to go hand in hand if20:02we see one of those buckle it couldn't20:05be the end of this rally so you've got20:07to really be on top of that type of20:09stuff. Semiconductors versus spy notice20:12here that we have a market that's back20:14at this little bit of resistance.20:16Semiconductors have been doing okay in20:19recent times. The other tech stocks have20:21actually been doing even better. Of20:22course, the ones that most people will20:24know of right now, AMD hitting $120:26trillion was pretty pretty special. But20:29yeah, you can see here semiconductors20:31picking up. The real strength though has20:33been in the mags. Where have we got20:36that? Here we go. Uh so we'll have a20:38quick look here at the Cosby. Cosby of20:40course selling down off that resistance20:42and tech here still near those all-time20:45highs actually bounced. So again the20:47strongest sectors actually bounced by20:49the end of the day and the magnificent 720:52still at those all-time highs. So still20:54above previous resistance here. So yeah20:57they're holding up all right. Now if20:59they start falling then we've got21:00problems. Why? Because less stocks are21:04trading above their 20 moving average21:06and 50 moving average. I mean, we are21:08really seeing a huge decline here in the21:11general breadth of the market. And21:13that's really rare. Again, not21:15necessarily super negative as many21:18people would think. And I always say,21:19look back at the S&P 500. If it's21:21breaking low, you've got bread dropping21:23off a cliff, you're losing tech, okay,21:25you're in big trouble. But at this21:27present time, we've got tech going up,21:29higher highs and higher lows. We have21:32everything else falling off, but we also21:34know that it's all about capex spend.21:37And really, we're in a market that is21:38driven by AI. 41% of the S&P is AI21:42stocks. Now, let's have a look here at21:43the New York composite. You can see21:45advanced decline. Absolutely shocking.21:47We first alerted this. Again, there is a21:50lot of argument there. Well, the markets21:52are bad. Well, don't buy breadth. Don't21:54buy bad breath. So, you know, again,21:56abundance does exist in these markets.21:58It's just you have to look outside the22:00box a little bit and think about22:02selection. It's really been a selection22:04year. At some points it's been good to22:05own semiconductors. At some points it's22:07been good to own healthcare. At some22:09points it's been good to own gold and22:11other markets. It really is a traders or22:14maybe a positional investors market more22:16so than anything else. Let's take a look22:18here at the VIX again. We spike off 1422:21hitting 16 not above 20. It's still kind22:24of a calm before the storm. Now, a lot22:26of you guys will say, "Tom, go check out22:28the move index." That is what is going22:30on with bonds. We're starting to see22:33some volatility spike here in the bonds.22:36You can see the move index is up. That's22:38usually synonymous with more of a22:39bearish move. But, of course, the one we22:41all look at here is the bow for high22:43yield. And that just took a high, guys.22:47I've got to say that is a fairly big22:49read. This is probably one of the22:51weakest signals um that we've got now22:53from the market for a while. So, it22:55certainly is a little bit more cautious.22:57I mean, look, tech is still making22:59higher highs, higher lows, but risk23:01management is the key in everything. But23:02take a look at this. We've got here both23:05high yields spiking out. That's showing23:07that the bonds market is actually now23:09waking up. Now, before everyone said the23:11bonds market was waking up. It wasn't.23:13And therefore, what did the markets do?23:15They climbed higher or stayed sideways.23:18This though,23:20all right, now we're starting to see a23:22wake up in bonds. So there is a little23:24bit of a freakout going on here guys and23:27certainly when you see this you've got23:28to be paying attention. This keeps23:30spiking. I find it hardressed to say the23:32markets wouldn't be finding a little bit23:34of weakness. Let's have a look at the23:35bonds themselves. Treasuries falling to23:3778. That is an absolute capitulation on23:40treasuries. We haven't really seen23:42Bessant get involved yet. Uh but they23:44may happen. And we haven't seen of23:46course home construction in general or23:49general construction ETFs fall through23:51lows. So again, we're on housing watch,23:53we're on delinquency watch. We have not23:56seen those kind of fall through. Triple23:58CRA junk bonds, they are falling. How24:01about normal junk bonds? Well, they're24:04also falling, but not extreme risks.24:06Now, if I actually take out yields a24:08little bit last 24 hours, you'll notice24:11a small decline. So, has risk come into24:14bonds? Slightly, but they're both a high24:17yield spread. That's the one that we24:19need to watch. Copper did close at an24:22all-time high. It's still higher highs24:24and higher lows, but one we're watching24:26very closely. We don't want to see24:28copper lose in the 20weekly. That could24:29be quite bad for markets, but at the24:31moment, it's pretty okay. And now on to24:34gold. So, gold, of course, fell through24:36its major supports. It got absolutely24:38shellacked during the day. It's fallen24:40into the major put supports here based24:43on GLD. Take of that what you will. And24:46you can see here gold itself falling24:49getting closer now to that most traded24:51kind of area of 4,50.24:53So is there any reason to stop here?24:56Maybe the puts, but generally speaking24:58when it falls off a cliff like this,25:00what do we always say? We got to find25:02structure. So yeah, the markets uh did25:04not weren't able to get through 45400.25:07They weren't able to make those higher25:09highs change on the higher time frames25:11and at the moment this head and25:13shoulders could still be open. Now, if25:15that's happening, could we be going to25:163,900 for gold? Does it change the25:18macro? Not really. But the internals of25:22the dayto-day for gold and all those25:24types of things, well, they can be a bit25:25different. And do remember if we do have25:28a ton of inflation, we do have a really25:30high yield. Gold is a currency kind of25:33hates that. So, what tends to like25:35higher inflation? Generally, currencies25:37around the world can hold up for a25:39little bit. And of course, we've got25:41certain commodities, eg oil and other25:44stuff like that. Silver, same thing.25:46Actually fell through the low here. So,25:49it's still weak. Again, there's no real25:51reprieve in sight. We'll keep covering25:53it. We'll keep checking it out and see25:54what's happening. We'll look for secret25:56hidden flows as well on these. But yeah,25:58they all broke through their support.26:00So, at the moment, the bears are in26:02control of those two charts. US oil kind26:04of picked up off the daily 50. Watching26:07the daily 50 very closely. It's26:08beginning to create structure. So yeah,26:11you could make a case for oil maybe26:13stabilizing and crack is still holding26:16the daily 20. Even with the number one26:18transaction, it's still holding up for26:20now. And if we see oil go to a new high,26:23that could be really ballistic for26:24markets because remember bonds have26:26started to wake up. Bonds are waking up.26:30Let's have a look here at the cues.26:32What's going on? We've tightened the26:35range. So, we've basically got put26:36support sitting at around 730 as we26:39mentioned in the previous video, and26:40we've got kind of that call level now26:42going out to 760, but I think really 75026:45is going to be where calls get out of26:47control. We're tightening the noose in26:49terms of the overall options market. So,26:53very, very tight options market. Again,26:56Q's holding up better than the S&P. So,26:58it's really all about tech. Tech falls27:00in, big problems. tech holds up at the27:04moment. It's holding the rest of the27:05market and really making it all okay for27:08now. Let's have a look here. We've got27:10put support and call resistance all at27:12the same level. So quite a lot of27:14options fighting it out here at this27:16strange level of 7650. We've also got27:19put support at 7500. So yeah, I mean27:23again close to highs actually sitting at27:25around support here today. So we'll see27:27whether they bid it up. And the futures,27:29you can see here again, holding as best27:32they can for now. For Bitcoin, it's27:35still okay. We had that pit. We rallied27:37up. We've created a couple of dozies.27:39We've seen some profit taking, but27:41still, it's a series of higher highs and27:44higher lows. And because the market's27:47come down here, like it could go maybe a27:49little bit lower into 81,000. If it then27:52rallies off that, then that's a good27:54sign because, of course, that's showing27:56us that there's some structure. So27:57levels that we'll be watching. Can we27:59get a higher high here at the moment?28:02You could say small time frames, maybe a28:04little bit weaker. Got some def kind of28:06defendable zones here. And then if it28:08gets through here, then it's making a28:10higher high and markets might start to28:13try to rally back up. They didn't quite28:14hit things like 93,000 some of the28:16supplies on the left hand side. So28:18interesting times for that. Guys, if you28:20enjoyed today's video, then please28:21remember to subscribe. Great to have you28:23here. One chart, one story, one market28:25lesson. links in the description down28:27below and pin comment to sign up to the28:29newsletter. And I guess you know in28:30summary of today the biggest thing28:33that's going on in markets right now is28:34the bonds. The bonds and the metals28:36market. Okay, you know what is happening28:39with bonds? Are they really freaking28:41out? Well, both are high yield. We28:43haven't seen it do this in a very long28:46time. So basically it has been a calm28:49before the storm since really the last28:52major pullback. It just broke out. This28:54is fairly significant because it's one28:57of my favorite kind of reads. Most of28:59the time you heard me recently saying,29:00"Yeah, bonds haven't done anything."29:02It's the first sign of actually bonds29:04starting to wake up. And I mean properly29:06waking up, not just like looking like29:08they are cuz yields are moving. So yes,29:10we've got a move index on the move.29:12We've got bonds starting to wake up, but29:15we have basically tech holding29:17everything. So as long as tech holds,29:19the markets won't be able to fall off.29:22bonds are starting to show some internal29:23weakness and of course there's29:25everything else. We'll check out some of29:26the other leads over the next 24 hours29:28as well. So make sure to subscribe. Love29:30to have you here. Thanks so much for29:32watching. We'll see you in the next one.29:33Bye guys.
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