Transcript of This Is Insane: Iran To Halt Uranium Enrichment
StockedUp
0:00This is insane. Iran has agreed to halt0:02uranium enrichment in exchange for US0:05sanctions relief. Oil moved lower today0:08while Treasury yields surged across the0:10board, crushing gold and silver. As we0:12head into October, Q4 has historically0:15been a huge period of the year for the0:17stock market. Today, we cover why stocks0:19are falling, what to know, and what to0:21look out for for tomorrow.0:27Trump is ready to ease sanctions on Iran0:29and release Iranian frozen funds in0:32exchange for concrete progress on Iran's0:34nuclear program. According to a US0:37official, almost immediately following0:39that news, Iran has agreed to halt0:41uranium enrichment in exchange for US0:43sanctions relief per al-Hadat. This news0:46crushed oil prices intraday and pushed0:49the S&P 500 higher. The 10-year yield0:52broke above 5.27% 27% today, its highest0:55level since 2007, which crashed gold and0:58silver by 4% and 5.5% today because1:02higher yields increased the opportunity1:04cost of holding non-yielding assets like1:07precious metals. Iran's oil exports have1:10basically hit zero due to the US1:12blockade in place. So, the US easing1:14their sanctions and lifting the blockade1:16could cause some immense moves in the1:18market and for oil. Qatari mediators are1:22now expected to meet separately with1:23Iran and the US on Monday or Tuesday to1:27discuss an updated version of Iran's1:297-day proposal. US officials have1:31described the talks as positive, but the1:34two sides remain divided over who will1:36make the first move. Very interesting.1:39And when the S&P 500 enters Q4 up1:42between 10% and 20% for the year, like1:45this year, Q4 has actually finished1:47higher 18 out of 21 times with above1:51average returns. And in general, Q4 has1:54been extremely strong over the past 131:57years, finishing positive in 12 of them.2:00The only exception was 2018, which was2:02also the previous midterm year under2:04Trump. And it's now been six months2:07since the S&P 500 suffered back-to-back2:10declines of at least 1%. The index has2:13also gone 41 straight sessions without a2:16single 1% drop, its longest streak since2:19October of 2025. The last daily decline2:23of at least 1% was on July 29th when the2:26S&P 500 fell 1 and a.5% following a Fed2:30rate decision. That is a pretty crazy2:33statistic, especially when you think how2:35crazy the market has been over the past2:37few months. But Nvidia just approved the2:40largest stock buyback increase in US2:42history, adding $150 billion and2:45bringing its total authorization to 2352:49billion. Nvidia expects to complete the2:51remaining buybacks through 2028 with2:53Jensen Wong saying the move reflects2:55their confidence in the company's2:57long-term AI growth. Nvidia also3:00launched new security tools designed to3:02automatically restrict or shut down AI3:05agents that behave suspiciously. But off3:07of the news of their buyback and the new3:09security tool, Nvidia gained 3.6% at3:13highs today. And we can see it actually3:14broke that $230 resistance, which was3:17the high of last week. And also, Nvidia3:20is now worth $5.42 42 trillion, nearly3:23$2 trillion more than the entire Russell3:262000 combined. Over the last year,3:29Nvidia has made a profit of $1933:32billion, while all the Russell 20003:34companies collectively lost around 133:37billion. And Nvidia is one of the main3:40reasons the stock market is still so3:42close to all-time highs. It's the few AI3:45players that are lifting the market3:47higher. Of course, the war in Iran is3:49also having a bigger and bigger impact3:51though as well. Trump said on Sunday3:53that he is thinking very seriously about3:56a US diesel export ban, but acknowledge3:58that it could backfire by raising gas4:00prices even more. His administration is4:03also considering alternatives, including4:05asking refiners to voluntarily limit4:07exports, suspending the federal diesel4:10tax, or getting states more involved.4:12And this comes as US diesel prices4:14approach $6534:16a gallon, more than doubling from their4:18January low. So this is going to be4:20another big thing that affects the4:22market going forward. Consumer sentiment4:24fell another 3.6 points in September to4:2748.1, its second lowest level on record.4:31Consumer expectations also dropped to4:3346.3,4:35the second lowest rating since 1980.4:37Sentiment has weakened across every4:39major demographic group this year,4:42driven by higher fuel prices, persistent4:44inflation, rising mortgage rates, and4:46weaker purchasing power. Before we move4:49on, if you guys are not yet subscribed,4:52definitely hit that subscribe button.4:54Around 43.3% of our viewers are not4:57subscribed, and it really helps out the4:59channel to just go down and click that5:01button. We spend a lot of time making5:03these videos and we try to put out the5:04best most accurate information for each5:07trading day, even with some plays5:09sprinkled in as well. So, if you're new5:11to the channel, definitely destroy that5:12subscribe button. And even if you've5:14been watching for a while, definitely5:16make sure you're subscribed. But jumping5:18into the spy and the overall price5:20action on today, it was very choppy.5:22Early on in the morning, the spy started5:24to break under pre-market lows and under5:27the low of day from Friday, running all5:29the way down to around 764, which is a5:32pretty big area of support as well. But5:34we did get that intraday bounce back as5:36the positive Iran news started to5:38release before ultimately trading lower5:40into the end of the day again, making5:42for a very choppy spy. And I actually5:45zoomed out on spy over the past few5:47trading days and noticed that there has5:49been a lot of chop. So keep this in mind5:51as you look at the S&P 500 over the next5:54few trading days because you definitely5:56don't want to get stuck into some of5:57these ultra choppy scenarios or ultra6:00choppy price action. But looking at the6:02spy more closely from today, the high of6:04day is going to be the biggest level to6:06watch for to the upside tomorrow. It's6:08right around 76950, which is just under6:11the 770 resistance. If we could break6:14through that, don't be surprised that6:15the SPY tries to fill the gap and runs6:17up to 77250, which was the high from6:20Friday. I think that would be a pretty6:22good bullish sign to see the SPY start6:24to get up towards that high. At the same6:26time though, the end of day movement was6:28definitely a bit worrying. And if we see6:30the low of day start to break around6:32764, I'll definitely be watching SPY6:35back to the downside with the first6:37major support coming in around 762 and6:40the second one sitting just under there,6:42closer to 760, even with 758 just under6:45there as well. And let's also not forget6:48that on average September 30th has been6:51the best average time to buy during6:53midterm years. So we're 2 days away from6:55this. So look out for that. But another6:58thing to keep in mind as well is that Q47:01during the third year of a presidential7:03cycle is also the second best time to7:07buy on average. It has the second7:10strongest average quarterly returns7:12which we are heading into. And then Q17:15of year 4 is also particularly strong.7:18So look out for that. Yeah, it seems7:20like a very bullish statistic and you7:22know the next couple quarters are7:24historically good during this7:25presidential cycle. So keep watching out7:28as we go throughout the end of this year7:29and beginning of 2027. But also since7:331950, the S&P 500 has historically7:36rallied strong during the first two7:38weeks of October. In nearly onethird of7:40those years, the index has also reached7:42its monthly low within the first week.7:45So it seems like that there's even more7:47bullish historical data that we're7:49looking at here. President Trump is set7:51to meet with major tech CEOs on Tuesday7:53as well to discuss artificial7:55intelligence and the future of AI7:57development in the United States. House7:59Speaker Mike Johnson is also expected to8:02attend with the meeting likely to focus8:04on keeping the US competitive in the8:06global AI race. And as we know, AI8:09stocks can really influence the market.8:11So watch out for the next couple trading8:13days. And at the same time, this week is8:15packed on the economic lineup. Jolts job8:18openings will release 30 minutes after8:20open tomorrow. And on Wednesday, we'll8:22get the PCE price index, GDP growth8:25rate, and personal income and personal8:27spending data all 1 hour before open. On8:30Thursday, ISM manufacturing PMI will8:33release. And on Friday, non-farm8:35payrolls and the unemployment rate will8:37also release. So, be ready as we get8:39towards the end of the week. And we'll8:41be covering all of those events as they8:43get closer as well. and Mike, the8:45earnings lineup is pretty light, but8:47there are a couple companies definitely8:49on my radar. CCL is going to be on watch8:52as higher energy prices can impact what8:55happens with cruise lines and obviously8:57consumers having to watch spending could8:59also impact that as well. Micron, one of9:02the biggest chip stocks in the market,9:03is also reporting Wednesday and after9:05hours and Nike will report Thursday9:08after the bell. So, watch out for that.9:10But Mike, I think it's time for the good9:12stuff, which are some setups and9:14predictions for tomorrow. We have an9:16exciting week ahead. Dell is still on my9:19downside radar. It had a nice uh move9:21lower today. Uh I would love to see a9:23breakdown of 530 this week. I'm still9:26liking this rejection at that $6009:28level. It's trading at a fairly9:30aggressive valuation with a forward PE9:32of roughly 21 times. I think it's a bit9:35overextended and I'm liking the9:37riskreward playing the down move here.9:39Again, this is more of like a macro9:41trade, but if we can break that 5309:44level this week, I think it could be uh9:46even greater in the short term. At the9:48end of last week, Dell popped up and9:50really tested resistance here at 570.9:53And I think it says a lot how strongly9:55that rejection has played out even into9:57the trading day today. I will definitely9:59be watching for a 530 breakdown coming10:01over the next few trading days. But10:04also, Mike, I'll be watching Zam to the10:06downside. I know that Zam has been a10:08pretty wild stock and with energy prices10:11going higher this year, obviously Zam10:13has followed along. You know, it ripped10:15up earlier in the year and now it's10:17starting to come back as energy has made10:19this great recovery. Well, in the short10:21term, we are going to see that mediators10:23are set to speak with the US over the10:25next couple of days. And if we do see10:27some positive developments from those10:29meetings with the mediators or some10:31positive developments with the Ron in10:33general, oil prices could fall kind of10:35like how they did today. And if I see10:37Zam break down under this clear uptrend10:39that it's been on over the past few10:41trading days, I will look for a10:43short-term downside move. I do think10:45though if we get a big pullback in the10:47short term and then the Iran situation10:49unravels again, it could end up making10:51for a good buy the dip opportunity for10:53the longer term or medium-term. But in10:56the immediate short term, if this trend10:57breaks, I'll be looking for a downside10:59move as it seems like the news has been11:01getting a little bit better the past few11:03days.11:04>> All right, another stock that's close on11:05the radar is XBI. This is an ETF that11:08tracks biotech companies, and this11:11industry has been hot this year. It's11:13one of the few areas of the market that11:15has remained resilient and it might not11:17be as overhyped as the AI industry and11:20it does have a lot to gain from just11:22tech improving and AI in general. Uh XBI11:26is on my bullish radar. This is also11:28more of like a broader macro trade, but11:30I think it can also offer some good11:32riskreward in a shorter term sense as11:34well, especially if the ETF continues to11:37hold this area of support right around11:38that 154 area and potentially uh gain11:41some more bullish momentum uh to11:44potentially get closer to that 158 to11:47160 zone. We shall see. Yeah, this is a11:51very interesting ETF and whenever I look11:53at it, I'm pretty surprised. You know,11:55biotech has had a pretty strong11:57correlation to the spy this year as11:58well, and I really like that support in12:00play around 152. I will be watching it12:03closely, Mike. But with my next play,12:05I'm looking at Costco for a trend12:07reversal style trade. And what we've12:09seen play out with Costco over the past12:12year or so is that Costco has ripped up12:14at the beginning of 2026, essentially12:17tested its all-time high and rejected12:19back down. And it's been stuck in this12:21massive range now for the past couple of12:23years. And as I look at Costco, it's12:26bouncing off of the bottom end of this12:28lower range. And I really like to see12:30that with Costco's technical setup. And12:32also, they're bouncing because at the12:34end of last week, Costco reported Q412:37earnings. And they beat on their top and12:39bottom lines accelerating and they had12:41accelerating digital traffic, resilient12:43membership data, and actually membership12:45renewal rates remain near record highs,12:47holding above 92% in the US and Canada.12:50and also their higher tier executive12:52memberships hit an all-time high.12:54Membership fee revenue expanded to 6.8%12:58on an adjusted basis. Uh pretty much13:00underscoring high customer uh stickiness13:03right now or uh consumers being strapped13:06obviously from higher energy prices and13:08starting to cut back on spending. And I13:10think that that's partly why we've seen13:12Costco uh start to pull back so hard13:14here and why we've also seen Walmart and13:16other like big box retailers falling13:19down is because consumers are starting13:21to watch their spending and obviously13:23they're spending a lot more on gas. So13:25I'm really looking at Costco in the13:26short term for a possible reversal,13:28especially if we do see, let's say, gas13:31prices start to fall and consumers not13:34become as strapped as they were13:36throughout the middle point of this13:37year. Uh Costco's definitely at a big13:39strong long-term support and we'll see13:41if this bounce can really materialize13:43over the next few months. If not and13:46support gives out, we better be careful13:48because we all know what's been13:49happening with McDonald's recently.13:52>> That great earnings reaction was nice13:54though. But Tom, let's also jump right13:56into today's momentum plays. With the13:58first one, we have Chewy, ticker symbol14:00CHWY, to the upside. Yeah, Chewy also14:04had a nice bounceback day today. If it14:06breaks out above $18.80, watch CHWI to14:10the upside. With the next one, we have14:12Tesla, ticker symbol TSLA, to the14:14downside. Yeah, Tesla sold off pretty14:16much all day today, closing down nearly14:194%. And if it breaks down under $356,14:22keep watching it down for tomorrow.14:25>> And then with the last one, we have14:26Netflix, ticker symbol NFL, to the14:29downside. Yeah, if Netflix breaks down14:31under $68.90,14:33also watch Netflix down. They closed14:35down nearly 3% today. Netflix has been14:38getting burned in the short term. These14:40three stocks are on the radar for14:42potential continuations tomorrow if and14:44only if they break through the levels14:46listed. These stocks are volatile, so14:48always protect yourself and focus on14:50making smart, disciplined trading14:52decisions because that's what matters.14:54And let's also jump right into today's14:56$940,00014:58big money trade. Today we're looking at15:00ticker symbol CVS. The trader here15:03traded the $87.5015:05strike call options that expire on15:08September 17th of 2027. They put roughly15:12$1.28 million into this trade. Looking15:15at it, we can see these options are at15:18the money. So, the trader here is15:20roughly equally balancing leverage with15:23probability of profit. The stock has15:25been downtrending a bit over the past15:27few months, but is still in a broader15:30term uptrend. CVS operates one of the15:33largest retail pharmacy networks in the15:35US. It's an interesting setup. Um,15:38again, they're really banking on the15:40stock, resuming that broader term15:42uptrend. I do like how they have a lot15:44of time to this trade. Yeah. And as we15:46look at that broader term uptrend and we15:48actually draw it out on the chart, it's15:51actually getting very close to following15:53the trend line here. And it has bounced15:55like two other times pretty consistently15:57close to this trend line. So, I will be15:59watching this one closely. I did notice16:02that it bounced up quite well on Friday,16:04closing up nearly 5% and there really16:07wasn't any news there, but I will say16:09this trade has a lot of time to it,16:11expiring on a September 17th of next16:13year. So, keep that in mind. It's going16:15to be a play that could require a bit of16:18patience. And as we can see, CVS's stock16:21has performed very well on the way up16:23since the beginning of 2025. But there16:26are these periods where the stock slows16:28down and it might slow down for a few16:30months and take a few months to to16:32materialize and to get that overall16:34uptrend continuing again. So keep that16:36in mind as you start to enter this trade16:38and you calculate your risk whenever16:40you're looking at this because you don't16:42want to overleverage because you might16:44have to widen your stop-loss a little16:45bit in order to hold this through this16:47turbulent period. But I do love the way16:49in which it's bouncing off of this16:51level. and the 87 to $85 support range16:55is huge and even lines up with highs16:57throughout the end of 25 2025 and17:00beginning of 2026. So very interesting17:02big money trade and with it being a17:04pharmacy stock sometimes these stocks17:06can have some wild trends. Yeah, let's17:08keep it close on the radar. And let's17:10also give a giant shout out to today's17:12member of the day, Ryan in the stockup17:15discord who had some great profits today17:17with some spy put options. Huge shout17:20out to you Ryan. Thanks so much for17:22being a great member of the community17:24and keep on rolling. If you guys like17:26today's video, destroy that subscribe17:28button. We make brand new ones for every17:30single trading day and if you subscribe,17:32you'll get them recommended to you more17:34often. We have a big week ahead. Thank17:36you guys so much for watching and let's17:38crush it in the market tomorrow.
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