Transcript of We Have Never Seen This Before...
FX Evolution - Trading Academy
0:00Is this market actually sick underneath0:02the hood? With some crazy moves from0:04central banks and also a huge movement0:07in the New York Stock Exchange leading0:09to more stocks now declining than0:11actually advancing over the last couple0:13of sessions with the equal weighted0:15market breaking through a trend line.0:17Could this be the beginning of weakness0:18into the midterm elections? And maybe0:21more importantly than all of that, we've0:23never seen this in history. Less0:25refineries online than ever before.0:28Guys, don't go anywhere. We've got a lot0:30to go through. Stocks, commodities, and0:31cryptos. Some of the most important news0:34coming to you over the next couple of0:35sessions. Don't go anywhere. We'll see0:37you in a moment.0:41Well, welcome back to one of the largest0:43daily shows on the planet when it comes0:44to everything from your macro to Wall0:46Street flows to, of course, some of the0:47biggest transactions of the last 240:49hours. My name's Thomas of the last 240:52hours. My name's Thomas and I've been in0:54markets for over 17 years. And on this0:56channel, we like to do things a little0:57bit differently. bringing the price0:58action, the data, and the flows, but1:00more importantly, the behavioral1:01techniques and traps that Wall Street1:03tends to set ahead of making big moves.1:06If that interests you, remember to1:07subscribe and smash that like button.1:09But let's get into the big stories that1:10are moving the markets right now. And I1:12think it starts with, of course, the1:14performance after the Labor Day weekend.1:17Yes, you guys know by now the1:19seasonality coming into these particular1:22weekends often is a little bit more1:23positive. The post reaction tends to be1:26a little bit more negative. And in fact,1:28weeks like this, according to Blue1:29Kurdic Market Insights over on X, are1:31basically a coin flip. That is that they1:33even decline a little bit more over the1:35last 20 plus years than increase. And1:37you can see the stats here and the odds1:39actually are not in the favor of the1:41market, which so far has been coming1:43true. But what is the problem underneath1:45the hood? Well, of course, you all know1:47about this by now. We've been talking1:49about it for weeks now, and that is1:50diesel prices. Crack on the refinery1:53here has been going absolutely wild. And1:56now that it's in the press, it's still1:58not slowing down. Now, traditionally, if2:00you've looked at the seasonality of oil2:03coming into elections, often it actually2:05is declining, but not this year in 2026.2:08And this is leading to widespread fears2:10coming into the PPI over the next 242:12hours and the CPI on Friday. That is the2:15inflation reads in the US that could be2:17causing some real concerns. But here's2:19where things get even wilder. Take a2:22look at this chart here from Andreas2:24Steno over on X. Give him a follow,2:25guys. Great work here. That shows the2:28real problem underneath the hood. And it2:30isn't so much that we don't have enough2:31oil, even though that's a problem. It's2:33refining capacity. This is the lowest in2:36modern history ever, ever, ever, ever,2:39recorded when it comes to refining2:41capacity. And this could be a structural2:44problem that can't just be fixed with a2:46quick fix. effectively causing massive2:48concerns now over of course food and2:51anything that has to do with2:52transportation as diesel does tend to2:54run of course the wholesale world and2:57will ultimately end up in our prices and2:59we've already seen this with many of you3:00sending me photos of people in the US3:03and even here in Australia where prices3:05are going up that is real restaurants3:08real people real small businesses3:10feeling the pain and having to not be3:12able to absorb it absorb it they're3:14actually having to put it on now could3:15this cause serious concern concerns.3:17Well, of course, the market is starting3:19to wake up to it. And you can see that3:21with maybe the creme de la creme of the3:24market not coming up anymore. That is3:26some of these stocks are actually3:28declining. So, some things are rising,3:30some things are declining. And as we've3:32talked about really since June, this3:34market has been a sector rotation3:36market, which is great for you guys that3:37have been watching the show because3:39there's so many different opportunities3:41and abundance out there, but bad if3:43you're just looking at the indices. And3:44I think this is the story leading into3:462027 as well. It pays to know a little3:48bit more because then you can find the3:51abundance, you can find the3:52opportunities. Here is the equal3:54weighted market, the daily chart. And3:55you may notice something a little bit3:57worrying. The advanced decline line is3:59declining, which means more stocks of4:01course are going down. But it also shows4:03us that a trend line here, a channel4:05that's been intact pretty much most of4:072026 has just been violated. So4:10basically the market is now in decline4:12when it comes to more stocks. At the4:14same point as that happens, copper is4:17potentially going to have a massive4:18weekly close. This is a close above.4:20Let's count them together here. 1 2 3 44:25five dogeis. So copper's been sitting,4:27and I'm just going to read a couple of4:28stats here to you. The last 3 months,4:31copper has actually reached $14,8584:34a ton. Of course, copper futures sitting4:37at $689ish.4:39But the thing that we're really watching4:40here is that we can't bring any more4:43supply online. It takes a while for a4:45copper mine to actually get supply up.4:47And I think people are starting to wake4:48up here that this AI capex spend, the4:51EVs, the renewables, the grid upgrades,4:54all of these things that are causing4:55kind of feedback loops, which we've4:57already been talking about now for a4:58long time are leading into the doctor5:01that is Dr. Copper. And while that looks5:03good on the charts and it gives GDP,5:05remember if we strip the GDP growth out5:07of AI spend, we're actually not really5:10seeing much growth in a lot of the5:11western economies. So why is this5:14becoming even more of a problem? Well,5:16AI is taking the debt, guys. And we just5:19saw Bessant come out. This is the5:21treasurer. And he said, "I am the house5:24now." Wow. Okay, that's an interesting5:27statement. he effectively dared them to5:30bet against him in terms of the markets5:32and already we actually saw the markets5:34say you know what I'm still going to5:35push yields up. So yeah, there's a big5:38fight here happening in the Treasury.5:40It's putting pressure on of course5:42Treasury bonds and more importantly some5:44of this money is now fleeing from5:46central banks selling it across the5:48world or governments doing that and5:50money just going into AI seeking that5:53higher level of payment. And this is5:56something that I think we've never seen5:57really in modern history, which has been6:00that a big central bank, this being the6:02biggest in the world, is actually having6:04to compete with, you know, private6:07equity in a way that we've just never6:09seen before. Another big story that we6:11posted was, of course, Poland continuing6:13to quietly accumulate gold. We've shown6:15this before. Poland actually one of the6:17biggest purchases in the world at the6:18moment of gold. They just bought bought6:20another eight tons in July taking them6:23to around 640 total tons. And it looks6:26like almost every big central bank6:28around the world or government is6:30actually trying to buy gold. And this6:32could be sovereignty. This could be the6:35new norm that is people are going back6:36to some kind of gold standard. It's a6:39very interesting point in history. And6:40although gold's not moving heavily,6:42although it has of course improved in6:44recent days, which we've been talking6:45about, this is the trend or the6:47trajectory China's been going on, which6:50many people of course speculate could be6:52the lead to trying to set up a new6:54currency of the world. China's gold6:56reserves keep climbing here. This chart6:58here from Kobasa letter basically shows7:00that this year every month has been7:02stacking on top of stacking on top of7:04stacking at this stage. And this is7:06really important because if this7:07continues then we're looking at a market7:10that literally could be starting to lose7:12faith in some of the most important7:13bonds in the world causing7:15[clears throat] as you guessed it7:16liquidity problems. Now do we see the7:19real bonds that is the credit default7:21swaps actually freaking out. This post7:23here from Ryan Dietrich and Topown7:25Charts that we shared just a few days7:26ago continues to I think be the story7:29underneath the hood. And although the7:30last 24 hours has spiked up bonds, which7:33you'll see in a moment in terms of risk,7:35we do still have a huge divergence7:37between tech and banks. And I asked you7:39guys whether the bonds market is correct7:42on the risk on tech. And I think7:44overwhelmingly, and overwhelmingly on7:46this channel, sometimes it's only about7:4755% of you guys, you've actually said7:50generally yes, you believe that tech is7:52correct. And we'll actually poll and put7:54it into the video coming up soon. So, if7:56you're interested in those kind of7:57results, make sure to subscribe because7:59they're going to be really, really8:00important. I'll poll both X and YouTube8:02in slightly different ways so that we8:04can get some live data, stuff that uh8:07you just won't find in other places, but8:08credit default swaps certainly starting8:10to rise up. This is also bringing into8:12question whether we're going to get an8:13interest rate hike in September. This8:16week, we're going to see probably a bit8:18of volatility. According to the latest8:20data, the FOMC events and the CPI events8:24are currently becoming the most volatile8:27two periods. And this is because the8:29Federal Reserve of course has said,8:30"We're not going to tell you what we're8:32doing anymore." It's not like Jerome Pal8:34who kind of just told you what he was8:35going to do. Now we've got a new Fed8:37chair. We don't know exactly what's8:39happening. And we've got kind of two8:41stories going on. On one side you've got8:43we're going to lower the rates. On one8:44side you've got we're going to8:46potentially have to hike the rates. So8:48the markets themselves are constantly8:50moving and I expect Friday in particular8:52to be a potential volatile day because8:55the CPI numbers coming and that's going8:57to move futures markets which is going8:59to move of course what the bonds are9:01doing. So please be paying attention to9:03that and be aware. Now on the positive9:05side of things if the market is9:07following the NASDAQ that is the most9:09closely correlated NASDAQ market so far.9:12This one here from Polycarb basically9:14shows that we could still be actually9:16going up. So for the bulls out there, I9:18want to show both sides. Yes. Okay, we9:20know seasonality tends to be more9:22negative into this time of year, but9:24there actually could be a case to be9:25said for a little bit of a rally and9:27then maybe a slowdown. So that is that9:30probably for the rest rest of the year9:31if we're going to follow the 89 path, we9:34don't do much. Uh we'd stay in the9:36kangaroo, but it's not necessarily the9:38negative that everybody thinks. What9:40about forward earnings estimates? Well,9:42this chart here from daily chart book9:44and duality research basically shows I9:47think some of the important factors that9:49is that we've got an increase in most9:51sectors according to what Wall Street9:54believes that is they've been upgrading.9:55They've been upgrading. They've been9:57upgrading and you can see with these9:58little squiggly lines that in almost10:00every sector Wall Street's been getting10:02pretty active and pretty excited about10:04the earnings so far. If that seems to10:06have topped, that is we've hit earnings10:08peak then we've got problems again.10:10Remember, the markets trade 12 to 1810:13months in the future. Now, here's the10:15one that we've been using the most, the10:161978 narrative. Are we at this point? So10:20far, we kind of found ourselves around10:22here, and we've started to drop a little10:24bit. So, the real question is, is this10:26the future of the S&P? It's only one10:28data read, but I always like to look at10:31structure. Want to bring it to you guys10:32so you can see there and observe it and10:34at least have that as part of your10:36overall thought process. Let's now take10:38a look at the last 24 hours. Gold the10:41best, energy the best, agriculture the10:43best, semiconductors hold their own.10:46This has been the story really of the10:48last month. It's been gold energy. You10:51guys have seen it. We've had it here10:52pretty much every single day and we've10:53been discussing it together. Now, let's10:55take a look at IBIT. Now, Bitcoin has10:58fallen since this point. No surprises it11:00would because this is of course a cold11:03wall. That is a lot of options are11:05sitting here. But if the market does go11:07down at the moment, it's sitting in what11:08we call a pit, a pullback in time. Now,11:12if Bitcoin can take a little bit of a11:13low and then maybe rally back through,11:15that actually would be quite strong for11:17Bitcoin. And do remember guys, the11:19overall volumes have been improving in11:21recent days. So, this is good news11:23because if the volumes continue to stay11:25pretty positive, then the market has a11:27little bit of a trap and then rallies11:28up. That could put the squeeze on the11:30street. For anyone that's new as well,11:32just remember that if you've just been11:34looking at semiconductors, if you've11:36just been looking at tech, it's not11:37really your fault. That's what's been11:38good for years. But sector rotation,11:41stock selection, these types of things,11:43this is what ends up moving markets. And11:45one of the things that's beautiful about11:47this is it really has been a stock11:49picker and sector market pretty much11:52since late mid 2025. So, it's no better11:56time to understand the markets a little11:57bit more than this. And the reason we11:59say that is because when semiconductors12:01lose as much as they did, they tend to12:03go into kangaroo markets. And I don't12:05know if you've loaded a chart up for12:06those recently, but they do seem to be12:09quite kangaroo right now. All right,12:10guys. Well, if you before we get into12:12the charts, if you're interested in12:14finding out a little bit about the tips12:15and tricks that I've picked up over the12:17last 17 years, I do have a session in12:19around two days, 22 hours. I think12:21there's literally only a few spots left12:23now. Uh so, thanks so much for signing12:24up. If you're interested, totally free12:2620 minutes plus Q&A. Let me know12:29description down below and sign up and12:31I'll see you there. It's going to be12:32awesome event. So, let's get into the12:34charts that matter right now. First up,12:36I still want to talk about Carvana here12:37for a moment. The reason is not the head12:40and shoulders. The reason is are we12:42seeing a problem in the loans markets?12:44Remember, often quietly price action12:48leads that is it leads the news, it12:50leads the narratives, it leads these12:51types of areas in markets. So, we'll be12:53watching that very, very closely. We've12:55also got the financials market that's12:57dropped off here a little bit. And of12:58course, we're looking very closely at13:00regional banks, which at this point,13:03notice they're starting to show signs of13:06topping and potentially turning over. So13:08where the banks go, where the anything,13:11we actually showed the mortgages the13:13other day, um the mortgages go, the debt13:16goes, that's when you start to see real13:18concerns in the overall market and that13:20is the bonds start to actually freak13:22out. If we have a look here at the New13:24York Stock Exchange and you put a trend13:27line on the charts, which I've done13:28here, just make it so you can actually13:30see it. Uh we can see a closure below13:32and this comes off a lower high. So the13:35problem with that is that if it's coming13:36off a lower high and then breaking down,13:39this is a serious concern in markets.13:41This is actually a weakness in the13:43breadth and a weakness that you don't13:45see when you traditionally just look at13:47the S&P. Look at the S&P. It already13:49looks like, okay, high, low, higher,13:51high, lower, low. Bit of a turn here13:53potentially to the downside, but at the13:56moment it's still consolidating and13:58hasn't really even gotten towards some14:00of the major put levels, 7,500, etc. It14:03doesn't exactly fill you with confidence14:05though when you look at a chart like14:06this though, does it? All right, let's14:08take a look at the overall stocks above14:10or below the 50-day. Are we at the lows14:13of what you would expect in an14:14oscillation? That is up here, you're14:16kind of hitting peak areas. Down here,14:18you're kind of hitting fear areas. It's14:20one of my favorite reads in the markets,14:22and I'm sure it is for you, too. Percent14:24of stocks above or below the 50-day14:26average sitting at 41. We bought this up14:29last week, so it is still declining and14:33it is not really showing signs of14:35recovery just yet. So, it's again just14:37one of those storylines that leading14:39into CPI has to be considered. S&P14:42versus RSP, this is basically just14:44showing us whether the S&P is doing14:46better than the equal weight. That's not14:48necessarily unusual. Again, since 22,14:50you can see the big companies have led14:52the equal weight in general. that is the14:55biggest in the world in capitalism tend14:57to eat the small that is they buy them14:59they eat them out and they end up15:02becoming larger corporations but still15:05that is a story you've got a weakness in15:07breadth while semiconductors are15:09kangarooing around we've lost leadership15:12and this is leading to many different15:14places in the world also starting to see15:17inflation have a look here at the15:18Australian one-year yield this is at15:204.8% 8% about to break to a new high. It15:23doesn't matter which yield we look at.15:24If we look at US 10 wise, here they are15:27closing above new highs. If we look at15:29Great Britain maybe 2 years, you can see15:32here. Oh, it didn't even load up. Let's15:34have a look if we can get that again.15:36There we go. We can see again breakouts15:38across the world. These are bonds that15:40are either right at resistance or even15:42closing above. If we get another weekly15:44close that's at these breakout levels,15:46then all of a sudden we could be going15:48into the fear of the unknown, which is15:50kind of a coin phrase we have for when15:52the markets actually start to say, "Oh,15:55I really care about this." Now, high15:56yield junk again looks bad on the15:59surface, but as always, we have to kind16:01of take yields out of it, and it doesn't16:03still have significant risk in it. But16:05notice it's actually come back up to16:07this resistance that we reached in 2025.16:10So on one side you might be thinking oh16:12junk bonds are falling all bonds are16:13falling but it really is just credit16:15default swaps on tech on AI businesses16:18that seems to be struggling. Another16:20read that we're looking at is the bow16:21for high yield option spread. It's off16:23the lows. Remember these are historical16:25lows things that we've only seen happen16:27like four times in history. Some periods16:30of time it happened 2007 early. remember16:34early it wasn't actually when everything16:36crashed and then of course 979816:39which was before the dot bust happened a16:41few years later so complacency in the16:44bonds is certainly there at this stage16:46and one thing that we keep talking about16:48look at the volumes look at the16:50movements here 2.33% up in crack it16:54really is wild look at the volume guys16:56it's a huge one it's a b monster volume16:58day and this is coming off another.5617:01in after hours trade So the story is now17:05the party that is that people are all17:08aware of this. The good thing is that17:10you probably saw it earlier and you17:12actually recognize that it could have17:13been a problem. It still hasn't really17:15fed into everything though. Take a look17:17here though at crack. It just shows you17:19again the abundance, the opportunity,17:21the different markets that you can17:22always look at. You can also see here17:24Chevron's also moving like things are17:26moving in the energy markets.17:29And if you think about it, if we go to17:32XLE for a second here, higher highs and17:35higher lows are still present. So it17:37really has been a tale of the right17:39market selection over the last month,17:41but it's happening in the price and it17:43has been for quite some time. When we go17:45to the hardware side of things,17:46everything's still at resistance. So17:48SanDisk seen recovery, but still at17:50resistance. Cosby here, you can see17:53still at resistance. And Nvidia,17:55although it had a great weekly close, so17:57it did close to a weekly high, it's17:59still just series of higher highs and18:01higher lows and slowed down a little18:02bit. The last 24 hours really only saw18:04Meta uh doing well at 6.55% up off that18:08announcement. But generally speaking,18:10you load up the mags, you take a look18:12across the board, and it is all sitting18:15at resistance, kind of struggling around18:17this point. If it wasn't for the big18:19stocks holding better, then we could be18:21in real trouble here and spin the18:23markets because of course more companies18:25are now declining. Let's take a look at18:27China. No movement here, guys. Still18:29stuck in a pit. Will it give us a trap18:32and then reverse? That's the question.18:35So again, it pays sometimes just be18:37patient and then see reactions. It's18:39it's always good to check those things18:40out. Gold stocks versus gold. Still an18:43improvement in gold stocks versus gold18:46overall. And if we take a look at gold,18:48it is basically holding its own. It's18:50not above 4450 or 4500 yet. The two18:53little minuscule resistances. And the18:56good news for gold bulls is it's not18:58below 4,300. And if we take a look at19:00copper, you can see monstrous closure19:02here daily. We've talked about copper.19:05We actually kind of looked at copper on19:07the show as an extremely big breakout19:09back here and also here, which was back19:13in May. So May and July started some19:15copper movements. So far, yep, copper's19:18been moving very, very strongly indeed.19:20And if you take a look at something like19:22silver and we break down silver from the19:25top down, then you'll notice that it has19:28actually done better than gold last 2419:30hours, which is because it's partially a19:33usable metal. It's not just a currency.19:35And here is the potential inverse head19:37and shoulders. So did [clears throat] we19:39just see a closure above? And has this19:42shown us that metals across the world19:44are actually showing real strength here?19:46Another one to look at is the sector19:48which of course XME has been improving19:51in recent weeks and you'll notice here19:54it's kind of just now consolidating19:56around but the actual real raw medals19:58they've been moving a few people in our19:59private community even spotting iron ore20:01and some others that had been improving20:03in recent days. So interesting to see it20:06all happens with price first. Let's take20:08a look at the US 500. At the moment, it20:10could be a flag still. It is seemingly20:13making a series of lower highs and lower20:15lows. The equal weight is certainly20:17where the weakness is. And if we go to20:19the options market, the options puts20:21have moved to 7,600, which is just under20:23the lower low. And it seems like if we20:25lose that level, we could be looking at20:287500, which is where the next put net20:31expiration is. So, we're really struck20:34between 7,800 and 7,500, but 7,50020:37getting stacked on with a lot of puts.20:40So, very important level moving forward.20:42And the Q's haven't really done as much.20:44So, we got 700 for the puts, call20:46resistances around 730. So, again,20:50trapped within the index price, but20:51actually a lot going on underneath the20:53hood. When we take a look at IBIT, that20:55is the options for Bitcoin. Yep. Still20:58at resistance, still stuck between the21:00calls and the puts. And it just goes to21:02show how the options market really does21:05drive a lot of this stuff, including21:07crypto nowadays. And if we have a look21:09at Bitcoin itself, it's just trapped. So21:12inflows, sure they're up a little bit,21:14but ultimately price action becomes the21:17most important level. So how this reacts21:19over the next coming weeks and days is21:21going to be really important. And you21:22might see like trapped price is boring.21:25I always think it's opportunity to see21:28Wall Street's hand. So like Woff once21:31said you know we have to think of the21:32market like the composite man that is21:34that all entities are together kind of21:36forcing price around and that generally21:38the market will work on of course a21:40supply demand dynamic. So when one area21:43becomes stronger then it will push the21:46rest of it. So where do we leave us at21:48this point then guys? Well it leaves us21:50with PPI and CPI on Friday. the core CPI21:55is probably going to be a really21:57important read. If I had to guess, you21:59know, you would think that it's going to22:00come in with some pretty big inflation,22:02but the markets themselves already22:04expect that. So really, it's just if the22:07number is obscure or if it's just like,22:10oh, it's an excuse now. Remember,22:12markets love a good story. They love a22:14good excuse. So, they'll always be22:16looking for these types of things to22:18happen. And if they do, then of course22:20that does end up pushing them around. If22:22you enjoyed today's video, please22:24remember to subscribe, smash that like22:25button. We'll be coming at you with22:27another video on the weekend. Please be22:29aware Friday won't have a video this22:31week due to some other commitments that22:32I've got. But guys, I would love to um22:35continue to bring of course all the22:37information on the weekend to you. And22:39more importantly, there'll also22:40hopefully be some posts over on X. So22:42check them out out below as well. I'll22:44see if I can get kind of a brief summary22:46for the day uh before the CPI, but the22:49CPI that's going to be the big one. and22:51we will have a weekend video for you.22:53Thanks so much for watching. I'll see22:55you for now. Bye-bye.
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